How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

TOPIC CLOSED
TOPIC CLOSED
Author
Discussion

p1stonhead

25,489 posts

166 months

Thursday 11th May 2017
quotequote all
okgo said:
p1stonhead said:
Wow really thats interesting. Even though its a bit ste, its also quite sad if it happens.

Most were not owned in the time I was there but I suspect a lot are now. Even if they got a hypothetical 50% on top of market value (which they wont), they wont be able to buy anything of equivalent size within 10 miles.
It is a total dump, lets be honest. Nostalgia aside, nothing will be missed. Apart from places to film The Bill crime scenes.

Kingston is piss poor value, I debated moving to around Kings Road area but the sad fact is that the station is dogst, the town is full of tosspit students, and the traffic around Richmond Park is so bad 8 months of the year that you'd end up hating it. People go there for schools and little else.
They filmed a few episodes of the bill in our next door neighbours flat hehe

Yes perhaps nostalgia aside nothing missed on the estate. But there will be a lot of people displaced from the place and people they know with no hope of being able to live close by.

Magog

2,652 posts

188 months

Thursday 11th May 2017
quotequote all
kingston12 said:
p1stonhead said:
No one can get around the cost of building things, the value of land, and the popular places people want to live (the South East). All three are just a recipe for high priced housing.
The value of the land is a genuine problem, the high cost of building is one we have made for ourselves by allowing developers to make excessive profits. If that was pared back, it would bring prices down.

Say a 2 bed flat in the Kingston development starts at £650k. How much do you think that actually cost the developer to build including the land, materials and labour costs? It is a bit unfair because Kingston is more developer-friendly than most local authorities, but the will be walking away with a lot of money.


p1stonhead said:
Building 500k houses in Lincolnshire is probably possible, but who is going to want them?
If you put a 45 minute rail link to London in, people might be a bit more interested!
There is definitely a truth in the fact that high house prices have allowed the construction industry to ignore the massive inefficiencies present in the house building process. We are also squeezing ever more out of creaking infrastructure with regards to the water/gas/electric distribution networks, as well as roads and hospitals etc.

okgo

37,859 posts

197 months

Thursday 11th May 2017
quotequote all
p1stonhead said:
They filmed a few episodes of the bill in our next door neighbours flat hehe

Yes perhaps nostalgia aside nothing missed on the estate. But there will be a lot of people displaced from the place and people they know with no hope of being able to live close by.
They could always get jobs?

scenario8

6,554 posts

178 months

Thursday 11th May 2017
quotequote all
Which are the four months of the year the Richmond Park area traffic is less $hite? Just so I can plan ahead.

I don't understand Kingston's desirability and "value" either. Nor Surbiton. Or New Malden or even Worcester Park really. But values are what they are irrespective of my befuddlement.

The transformation of the central area of Kingston during my lifetime is pretty dramatic and won't have been replicated in all that many other towns to the same degree (as mentioned above).

Edited by scenario8 on Thursday 11th May 15:28

okgo

37,859 posts

197 months

Thursday 11th May 2017
quotequote all
scenario8 said:
Which are the four months of the year the Richmond Park area traffic is less $hite? Just so I can plan ahead.

I don't understand Kingston's desirability and "value" either. Nor Surbiton. Or New Malden or even Worcester Park really. But values are what they are irrespective of my befuddlement.
We covered Surbiton earlier on in the thread. There is very little bad about it tbh as long as you have a few quid, the others less so, and not just because I live in Surbiton ;-) . Kingston has schools of note, if your kid isn't a retard. But chances are you'll lose out to some child genius from ten miles away at Tiffins.

Winter around RP generally better.

p1stonhead

25,489 posts

166 months

Thursday 11th May 2017
quotequote all
okgo said:
p1stonhead said:
They filmed a few episodes of the bill in our next door neighbours flat hehe

Yes perhaps nostalgia aside nothing missed on the estate. But there will be a lot of people displaced from the place and people they know with no hope of being able to live close by.
They could always get jobs?
We owned our flat same as a lot do now and my parents worked full time - mum was a midwife and earned fk all, dad worked at Ford as a mechanic.

They liked kingston.

Now similar people would be kicked out with no hope of staying (and I mean owning) in the area without a huge salary. How is that 'they could get jobs'?

okgo

37,859 posts

197 months

Thursday 11th May 2017
quotequote all
p1stonhead said:
We owned our flat same as a lot do now and my parents worked full time - mum was a midwife and earned fk all, dad worked at Ford as a mechanic.

They liked kingston.

Now similar people would be kicked out with no hope of staying (and I mean owning) in the area without a huge salary. How is that 'they could get jobs'?
It was a joke. I (for my sins) used to be an estate agent in the area, I remember trying to rent a few flats in there, it was grim full of people walking around in their pyjamas at 2 in the afternoon.

kingston12

5,473 posts

156 months

Thursday 11th May 2017
quotequote all
SilverSixer said:
~ *Weirdest house in Kingston klaxon* ~

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...
I actually had a walk down there when it first went on the market. I have lived in the area a long time and never knew these houses existed.

It is a classic example of the old-meets-new I was talking about earlier. Those houses must be amongst the oldest in the area, but are totally dwarfed by the huge college building and slightly less huge multistorey car park. That one suffers from the noise of the college aircon blowing out at it all day!

I am not usually in favour of tearing down houses to replace with large blocks of flats, but this is the only real possibility for this site in my opinion.


p1stonhead

25,489 posts

166 months

Thursday 11th May 2017
quotequote all
okgo said:
p1stonhead said:
We owned our flat same as a lot do now and my parents worked full time - mum was a midwife and earned fk all, dad worked at Ford as a mechanic.

They liked kingston.

Now similar people would be kicked out with no hope of staying (and I mean owning) in the area without a huge salary. How is that 'they could get jobs'?
It was a joke. I (for my sins) used to be an estate agent in the area, I remember trying to rent a few flats in there, it was grim full of people walking around in their pyjamas at 2 in the afternoon.
Ah ok. Fair enough comment though probably in part. Half were scroungers, half not.

If I happened to own there on a lowish wage and was soon to be kicked out I wouldnt be happy but it happens all over the place I guess.

scenario8

6,554 posts

178 months

Thursday 11th May 2017
quotequote all
okgo said:
scenario8 said:
Which are the four months of the year the Richmond Park area traffic is less $hite? Just so I can plan ahead.

I don't understand Kingston's desirability and "value" either. Nor Surbiton. Or New Malden or even Worcester Park really. But values are what they are irrespective of my befuddlement.
We covered Surbiton earlier on in the thread. There is very little bad about it tbh as long as you have a few quid, the others less so, and not just because I live in Surbiton ;-) . Kingston has schools of note, if your kid isn't a retard. But chances are you'll lose out to some child genius from ten miles away at Tiffins.

Winter around RP generally better.
Yeah, I know all that really. This thread has its hotspots and that part of SW London crops up frequently. I too am relatively local (and work within the property industry). I understand the appeal of many parts of Surbiton (in particular. Just disagree with the market on value.

Devils advocate; state schools' performances in the Royal borough of Kingston upon Thames and ordinary borough of Sutton. Property values. Discuss.

The traffic around the park in the winter is awful, too, really. Just goes to show how bad we now accept as "normal"!

okgo

37,859 posts

197 months

Thursday 11th May 2017
quotequote all
Kingston does have the benefit of the river, two fantastic parks, good shopping, surrounded by generally nice parts of the world.

Sutton has none of that.

hyphen

26,262 posts

89 months

Thursday 11th May 2017
quotequote all
scenario8 said:
Devils advocate; state schools' performances in the Royal borough of Kingston upon Thames and ordinary borough of Sutton. Property values. Discuss.
North Sutton or South Sutton wink

kingston12

5,473 posts

156 months

Thursday 11th May 2017
quotequote all
scenario8 said:
Which are the four months of the year the Richmond Park area traffic is less $hite? Just so I can plan ahead.

I don't understand Kingston's desirability and "value" either. Nor Surbiton. Or New Malden or even Worcester Park really. But values are what they are irrespective of my befuddlement.
My view of most of these areas is that they are quite cheap compared to a lot of similar ones in outer London.

I live in Surbiton and I really like it personally but can understand if others do not. What isn't in question is that it is cheaper to live here than most of the rest of SW London, e.g. Balham, Wimbledon, Richmond etc, whilst being almost as quick to get into central London as any of them.

New Malden & Worcester Park even more so. I don't like them as much personally, but they are cheaper still, in zone 4 and I don't think they are bad areas.

Kingston is too big to characterise - you could pay £8m to live in the Coombe Estate or £200k to live on the Cambridge Estate - a mile apart but you probably couldn't find two more different places in outer London. If you take the more 'standard' part, it is expensive compared to it's direct neighbours, but still cheap compared to SW London as a whole.

They all look low value compared to commuterland - the nicer parts of Woking, Sevenoaks even Guildford don't take much longer by train, but are a lot cheaper.


scenario8 said:
The transformation of the central area of Kingston during my lifetime is pretty dramatic and won't have been replicated in all that many other towns to the same degree (as mentioned above).

Edited by scenario8 on Thursday 11th May 15:28
You're right, I can't think of anywhere else. They seem to have modelled it on the towns like Croydon and Woking that were pulled apart in the 1960s. Profit has come first for a long time, but it is working if these ridiculous asking prices are anything to go by.

kingston12

5,473 posts

156 months

Thursday 11th May 2017
quotequote all
p1stonhead said:
We owned our flat same as a lot do now and my parents worked full time - mum was a midwife and earned fk all, dad worked at Ford as a mechanic.

They liked kingston.

Now similar people would be kicked out with no hope of staying (and I mean owning) in the area without a huge salary. How is that 'they could get jobs'?
The answer is that they can't - renting would be hard enough, let alone owning. That is bad news for everyone, the people who want to live there but cannot afford it, the employers in the area who cannot find local midwives or mechanics, and for people who do live there with the increased volume of traffic from people commuting in.

It wouldn't be so sad if this was a desirable part of inner-London, but it is the edge of zone 6!

kingston12

5,473 posts

156 months

Thursday 11th May 2017
quotequote all
hyphen said:
North Sutton or South Sutton wink
That's the key distinction I think.

I don't think that what I consider the nicer parts of Sutton are that much cheaper than the equivalent areas in Kingston. It probably doesn't have the ridiculous peaks where certain roads are suddenly 30% more expensive than the surrounds.

I don't like the town centre in Sutton at all. I don't much like the one in Kingston either, but I have lived around there so long that I can bypass the sea of c**p to get to the bits I like, and it does have some nice parts and some good shops and restaurants.

I think that the only other differences have been highlighted by okgo - access to the parks, right by the river, good facilities in surrounding areas.

kingston12

5,473 posts

156 months

Thursday 11th May 2017
quotequote all
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Plenty of the former in both town centres as far as I can see.

Surbiton used to have a particular problem with Eastenders cast members clogging up the area, but I haven't seen one for a couple of years so hopefully they have gone now.

Derek Chevalier

3,942 posts

172 months

Thursday 11th May 2017
quotequote all
kingston12 said:
The value of the land is a genuine problem, the high cost of building is one we have made for ourselves by allowing developers to make excessive profits.
The value of land is determined by what the developer thinks they can sell the finished article for. What makes you think that the developers are making excessive profits?

z4RRSchris

11,221 posts

178 months

Thursday 11th May 2017
quotequote all
Derek Chevalier said:
kingston12 said:
The value of the land is a genuine problem, the high cost of building is one we have made for ourselves by allowing developers to make excessive profits.
The value of land is determined by what the developer thinks they can sell the finished article for. What makes you think that the developers are making excessive profits?
excessive profits?! thats if you make a profit.

the amount of risk in developing is huge.

Matt p

1,036 posts

207 months

Thursday 11th May 2017
quotequote all
Derek Chevalier said:
The value of land is determined by what the developer thinks they can sell the finished article for. What makes you think that the developers are making excessive profits?
Take a look at Taylor Wimpey for a start. Bellway, persimmon and Redrow. Cheap houses but with leasehold terms attached. Nice little earner on top "excess profit"

V6Alfisti

3,305 posts

226 months

Thursday 11th May 2017
quotequote all
Derek Chevalier said:
The value of land is determined by what the developer thinks they can sell the finished article for. What makes you think that the developers are making excessive profits?
I can't recall the builder, but there was something in the BBC newsfeed about one of the major constructors who's overall profits were up despite selling less properties but significantly increased the profit on each home. They are/were taking full advantage of HTB.

Sounds like good business to me 2bh, but the amount of support that constructors have received via HTB otherwise known as Help to Sell/Help to Debt is rather more shady imo. Let alone the whole issue over ever increasing yearly land costs.


TOPIC CLOSED
TOPIC CLOSED