How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[mike74]

Murph7355 said:

If you plug the numbers into rightmove there's still plenty of stuff available around Derbyshire for 50k-70k. So using the 2017 equiv salary of 22k you're there or thereabouts.

The South East is the anomaly. And guess why...

£50-£70k for a 2 bed semi in good condition in a nice (non council) part of Derbyshire? I'll await your links to examples with anticipation.

And the same job/hours currently pays £17.5k not £22k.

edit - forgot to add, my ftb is now worth £135k, so with the equivalent modern wage being £17.5k that's just about 8x income.

Edited by mike74 on Monday 26th June 19:06

[p1stonhead]

Perik Omo said:

No, what's "strange" is that someone writes something that you don't agree with is immediatley more-or-less labelled as racist by implication. It's people like you who shut down any debate about the issues that immigration is causing in the UK by intimating that anyone who want's to write about that particular concern is automatically a member of EDL. It's OK 'cos it's not just you it's the BBC as well who labelled Douglas Murray as "racist" when he tried to explain about his recent book about immigration into Europe from primarily Muslim backgrounds and much to their chagrin they had to make a public apology on air for that one.

No what's strange is that in a house price thread where for hundreds of pages we have largely been discussing economic trends, someone can come out with 'well yeah it's not white peoples fault it's all the brown people knocking out loads of kids'

[p1stonhead]

Yeah perhaps let's move on eh?

[p1stonhead]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

[Thankyou4calling]

mike74 said:

£50-£70k for a 2 bed semi in good condition in a nice (non council) part of Derbyshire? I'll await your links to examples with anticipation.

And the same job/hours currently pays £17.5k not £22k.

edit - forgot to add, my ftb is now worth £135k, so with the equivalent modern wage being £17.5k that's just about 8x income.

Edited by mike74 on Monday 26th June 19:06

Plenty of them here. I don't know Derbyshire but I'm certain there will be decent paces among the 120+ listed.

And these are houses not flats.

Now of course some (not all) will need varying degrees of work and may not be in the best areas but isn't building a home part of what being a first time buyer is about?

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find....

[hyphen]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

xymph, you are making 2+2 = 5

It is not brown migrants having more kids, it is ALL MIGRANTS having more kids, regardless of colour/religion. They did a study which showed that Eastern Europeans have more kids per family here than they do in their homeland.

When it comes to the less educated and skilled migrants, yes part of it will be the benefit net-if you are a migrant adult you are on your own, however have kids and you have a home for at least the next 16 years all paid for, which is a darn sight better than slogging away cleaning white Audis in the local Tesco or breaking your back on a building site. And then the more kids, the more benefits and income later on. This is not the migrants fault, that is our broken system which incentivises them in this manner.

Yes we have not integrated well in certain parts of the country and that has caused problems including bombings, but that a whole more complicated story.

I don't think you need to worry too ,much though. And I think raising free childcare to 30 hours for kids will also help more professionals have children.

Lets get back on topic- house prices.

Edited by hyphen on Monday 26th June 19:32

[hyphen]

Londoner/Surrey people.

To change the subject, I ended up venturing around The Hamptons in Worcester Park today, didn't quite know what to make of it. Very surreal place.

Anyone familiar with it?

[p1stonhead]

hyphen said:

Londoner/Surrey people.

To change the subject, I ended up venturing around The Hamptons in Worcester Park today, didn't quite know what to make of it. Very surreal place.

Anyone familiar with it?

Yep lived in WP for about 5 years.

The Hamptons is a bit of a strange one - it's stuck down the arse end of Worcester Park (it's hardly even Worcester Park!) and seems like a bit of a tranquil oasis but the roads outside are too small for the number of homes in the development, it's surrounded by council housing areas and has a fairy large social aspect in itself down one end so feels a bit like a split development in that way. I think there is a community gym etc but not sure if the social element are allowed to use it which could seed resentment in certain people.

It's ludicrously expensive even now several years down the line but is a good 15 minute walk to the station and nigh on impossible to get out of at rush hour. I recently saw a 5 bed detached in there for a cool million. A million to live 'in' Worcester Park but a mile from the high street!

I believe (but don't quote me) that it's mostly timber frame housing so you'd want a detached property unless you like to hear your neighbours a lot.

Nice little bit of landscaping in the middle though albeit last time I walked through when it was dark a load of kids were shooting fireworks off the slide in the park so potentially not as family friendly (or at least letting your kids play outside on their own) as at first it would seem....

I wouldn't touch it with a barge pole - there are plenty of nice leafy WP roads around instead, particularly the posher roads up towards (but not too close to!) Malden Manor way.

[hyphen]

p1stonhead said:

I wouldn't touch it with a barge pole

That is how I mostly felt, walking around seeing this mock New England stuff- some folk even had white rocking chair on the front porch. Sometimes you see a crazy idea and you think yes it works, but I felt more like on a Truman Show set Whoever designed and flogged the thing is a genius.

Interesting what you say about the social side, as the Green lane school was closed when I was there, and looked very impressive and pristine so check ofsted and surprised that it is actually 'requires improvement' and that was from this year- owner residents can't be very happy unless there is other schools they go to instead.

What kind of people live there, heard a lot of european voices so BTL may be a big aspect.

With regards to trains- you can cut through the nice park at the back and get to Motspur Park station too,. but that will be another 15-30 mins I guess.

That landscaping must cost a fair bit to maintain though, does the council maintain it or contribute? As seemed strange that it is fully open to the public rather than gated so there must be a reason for it.

[Murph7355]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

The latter (If you needed to say it, I suspect you knew)

The problems are more likely to stem from indigenous of all ethnicities sitting on their laurels thinking the once great history of this country owed them something. I'm more inclined to say the rot really started to set in during the Blair years. But maybe it was much earlier than that in the early 70s etc when we let our car and other industries go down the toilet through simply not caring enough.

(Blair's everyone must win prizes lines certainly did nothing to help keep trying to drag us out of the mire)

anonymous said:

[redacted]

London isn't the country. In fact it's as far removed from everywhere else in the country as it's possible to get IMO. I cam to the South East (specifically London) from Yorkshire. The very things that you seem concerned about are what made London exciting (for better and worse).

You sound to me like you need to move out of London. Go and visit other parts of the country, but avoid using the Daily Mail as your travel guide.

anonymous said:

[redacted]

You're seriously hung up on race fella. Whatever newspapers you read, stop. Whatever circles you are mixing in, broaden them. Make friends with some of these other parents and see what is driving them this way.

Meanwhile, start instilling a similar sense in your daughter. Get right behind her. We should all want to do everything we can for our kids' education. Maybe we're the ones who have lost our way and have given up - your post certainly sounds like it.

The world is a very different place to how it was 50yrs ago and it is never going back to how it was. Adapt or die. There are bits I dislike about it intensely, but boohooing about it won't change anything and there is still much to like

mike74 said:

£50-£70k for a 2 bed semi in good condition in a nice (non council) part of Derbyshire? I'll await your links to examples with anticipation.

And the same job/hours currently pays £17.5k not £22k.

edit - forgot to add, my ftb is now worth £135k, so with the equivalent modern wage being £17.5k that's just about 8x income.

I'm not familiar with the nicer parts but there are dozens of pages of properties. I'm sure some will be in nice locations.

But be honest - how relatively nice was the area your ftb was at the time? Has the area improved markedly? How much work did you do on the place?

Time doesn't stand still and it's easy to look back on things with rose tinteds on.

A first step on the ladder is a first step on.

Ref the job, many jobs are paying the same or less for the same or less. This again is just things moving on. Supply/demand. The step changes in income come when you make step changes in what you're doing.

[p1stonhead]

hyphen said:

p1stonhead said:

I wouldn't touch it with a barge pole

That is how I mostly felt, walking around seeing this mock New England stuff- some folk even had white rocking chair on the front porch. Sometimes you see a crazy idea and you think yes it works, but I felt more like on a Truman Show set Whoever designed and flogged the thing is a genius.

Interesting what you say about the social side, as the Green lane school was closed when I was there, and looked very impressive and pristine so check ofsted and surprised that it is actually 'requires improvement' and that was from this year- owner residents can't be very happy unless there is other schools they go to instead.

What kind of people live there, heard a lot of european voices so BTL may be a big aspect.

With regards to trains- you can cut through the nice park at the back and get to Motspur Park station too,. but that will be another 15-30 mins I guess.

That landscaping must cost a fair bit to maintain though, does the council maintain it or contribute? As seemed strange that it is fully open to the public rather than gated so there must be a reason for it.

Truman Show is pretty spot on to be honest. The rocking chair

I don't know the demographics of those living there but it was always pricey and will probably remain so because objectively it does probably look nicer than most of WP. I think people who know the area well though can see through it a bit.

Look how fking pokey the rooms in this is for £1.125m!

Sherbrooke Way, Surrey, KT4
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

Landscaping is a good point however, I believe the roads have all been adopted so they are not private, and I understand the landscaping was part of creating a community inside the place and for the local areas so I suppose it's actually designated a public park space perhaps? I can't imagine the private residents pay for it considering anyone can use it.

Edit - it's a designated park evidently

Mayflower Park. The official public opening of the park was at the end of July 2006. The park and surrounding housing was built on the site of the old Sewage Treatment Works and provides a new 31-acre park and nature conservation area.

Edited by p1stonhead on Monday 26th June 20:42

[mondeoman]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

How can labour un-raid the pension funds that started the btl band wagon?

[p1stonhead]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Don't go playing the race card?! Wind your neck in mate.

Anyway enough of this ridiculous discussion let's move on.

[mondeoman]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

So no pension fund unless it's a state pension or worthless annuity pension. Right-oh.

[Murph7355]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

He has a lot to answer for - there's the root of your hassles

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Unless you can get enjoyment out of London, move. It's not worth it.

I've never been fond of North London. Always had an edge I didn't like. Central and South London were where I spent my time. Moved 6yrs ago out to the countryside. Haven't looked back. I suspect many of the old values you hanker after still exist out here

Whilst I don't want half of London moving out here, I do think spreading the love around the country more is the "cure" to daft house prices (to bring it on topic a bit ).

[Rovinghawk]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

They can buy one, same as me. They just have to work to earn the money, same as me.

anonymous said:

[redacted]

It's a business- I don't go all-out to outbid someone, I just buy what looks sensibly priced and if they want to offer more then I won't fight them. This is normal.

anonymous said:

[redacted]

I was on a course once where someone asked the instructor how many on the course would pass. The answer: all those who really wanted to.

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Corbyn's 25% right-to-buy discount? It would kill BTL overnight & put millions out on the street. Look at Leeds currently, where the council's attack on LLs is causing mass evictions.

anonymous said:

[redacted]

You seem very angry & prejudiced. Go on- tell me where the nasty man touched you.

[tescorank]

Corbyn's 25% right-to-buy discount? It would kill BTL overnight & put millions out on the street. Look at Leeds currently, where the council's attack on LLs is causing mass evictions.

Tried searching this in google and can't find anything?

[stuckmojo]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Agreed.

Sadly, the Brown/Blair era favoured overconsumption and financialization of absolutely everything to give poor people the illusion of wealth. Prices of financialised things and asstets shot up as result.

I can't blame investors for getting into BTL, yet they do compete in a market which distorts the access to housing for new families. After all, a young couple who can't buy will rent from the BTL'er. Win win scenario.

Even when the BTL'er becomes the lender of last resort to their kids when it's time to pay a deposit on a house.

FTB loans are only distorting the market. Regulations such as s24 are a goods start, but they should be done in tandem with incentivising people to invest in productive activity, not becoming professional landlords, which is a parasitic activity - no offense.

The comment above about an incentive for FTB putting people on the street makes me laugh. What's the logic for that?

[Rovinghawk]

tescorank said:

Look at Leeds currently, where the council's attack on LLs is causing mass evictions.

Tried searching this in google and can't find anything?

I know a few Leeds LLs- the council act like Nazis, LLs are getting rid of lots of DSS tenants because they aren't worth the hassle. Leeds council are having fun rehousing them as the other LLs don't want to know.

It's a word of mouth thing rather than all over the net; google is not a synonym for research .

[Sa Calobra]

BTL is a business that's grown too much. Everyone seems to be in on it in our area, at least three of our friends closeby have their old property rented out rather than sold when they wanted a bigger place with a couple more with multiple properties. It's driven demand (and resulting asking prices too high) which means we now cant offord a bigger place locally. We snoozed we lost maybe however it's worrying for the future. When a big crash happens alot of core LLs will be insulated and fine. The market will be ready to pick up where it stopped a couple of years later. One day there'll be little for sale with huge premiums. Lots of people sat on lots of properties with families trapped.

It's depressing but that's capitalism.