How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

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okgo

37,861 posts

197 months

Tuesday 8th August 2017
quotequote all
gibbon said:
Im in the process of buying and selling. My view of zone 2 london is somewhat different, but I will report back if / when all done.
Many of those people will be young families who actually do need to get more space/can't afford house in current area...?

gibbon

2,182 posts

206 months

Tuesday 8th August 2017
quotequote all
okgo said:
Many of those people will be young families who actually do need to get more space/can't afford house in current area...?
Sorry if im being slow, which people?

im selling one property, and buying another in the same z2 london area.

okgo

37,861 posts

197 months

Tuesday 8th August 2017
quotequote all
gibbon said:
Sorry if im being slow, which people?

im selling one property, and buying another in the same z2 london area.
"Exactly. Who in their right mind would accept a £300k 3 year haircut unless they literally had a gun to their head.

Id be amazed if it exists or if it/they do, there will be more to it."

Gotta be a fair few folks that do indeed 'need' to move..

hyphen

26,262 posts

89 months

Tuesday 8th August 2017
quotequote all
p1stonhead said:
Exactly. Who in their right mind would accept a £300k 3 year haircut unless they literally had a gun to their head.

Id be amazed if it exists or if it/they do, there will be more to it.
Tonkers wife hehe

[welshbeef]WHERE ARE YOU TONKER!!! [/welshbeef]

okgo

37,861 posts

197 months

Tuesday 8th August 2017
quotequote all
hyphen said:
Tonkers wife hehe

[welshbeef]WHERE ARE YOU TONKER!!! [/welshbeef]
Dupont666666 is that you?

p1stonhead

25,489 posts

166 months

Tuesday 8th August 2017
quotequote all
okgo said:
gibbon said:
Sorry if im being slow, which people?

im selling one property, and buying another in the same z2 london area.
"Exactly. Who in their right mind would accept a £300k 3 year haircut unless they literally had a gun to their head.

Id be amazed if it exists or if it/they do, there will be more to it."

Gotta be a fair few folks that do indeed 'need' to move..
No one who paid £900k for a house or flat needs to move if it's costing them £300k to do so. Rent somewhere and keep the place as an investment. These aren't minimum wage people.

V6Alfisti

3,305 posts

226 months

Tuesday 8th August 2017
quotequote all
p1stonhead said:
So this is where you have gotten your 30% from? Hardly comprehensive is it.

ONS certainly doesnt show 30%;



Edited by p1stonhead on Tuesday 8th August 10:04


Edited by p1stonhead on Tuesday 8th August 10:06
No it wasn't, as mentioned before.

Those ONS figures are across London probably including prime and greater, not prime as stated.

V6Alfisti

3,305 posts

226 months

Tuesday 8th August 2017
quotequote all
gibbon said:
Im in the process of buying and selling. My view of zone 2 london is somewhat different, but I will report back if / when all done.
Zone 2 is not prime, but even those areas have weakened (certainly North West direction)

V6Alfisti

3,305 posts

226 months

Tuesday 8th August 2017
quotequote all
gibbon said:
Could you show me a central london property that sold for 900k in 2014 and now is on the market for just over £600k please.

I find that hard to believe.
I had a couple saved in prime, I will dig them out later. Around the fitzrovia area oddly. I wasn't aware prior to the last month that sub £1m properties were impacted.

I remember finding a few around some nice-ish bits of Kensington as well.

V6Alfisti

3,305 posts

226 months

Tuesday 8th August 2017
quotequote all
gibbon said:
Any stats taken from asking prices are also meaningless. You can ask what you like, doesnt mean anything.

Im not saying the london property market isnt softer, from my current experience of buying / selling and letting, it is, but some of the metrics and scaremongering used here are at worst nonsense and at best wishful thinking.
Yep, lots of false stats around asking prices suggesting prices are edging up (rather than the opposite from what I saw).


p1stonhead

25,489 posts

166 months

Tuesday 8th August 2017
quotequote all
V6Alfisti said:
p1stonhead said:
So this is where you have gotten your 30% from? Hardly comprehensive is it.

ONS certainly doesnt show 30%;



Edited by p1stonhead on Tuesday 8th August 10:04


Edited by p1stonhead on Tuesday 8th August 10:06
No it wasn't, as mentioned before.

Those ONS figures are across London probably including prime and greater, not prime as stated.
You didnt say prime you said "my own research showed places that sold for over 900k in 2014 and are now lingering for resale at just over £600k."

£900k or £600k isnt necesarrily 'prime'. Its a council flat in some areas hehe

V6Alfisti

3,305 posts

226 months

Tuesday 8th August 2017
quotequote all
p1stonhead said:
You didnt say prime you said "my own research showed places that sold for over 900k in 2014 and are now lingering for resale at just over £600k."

£900k or £600k isnt necesarrily 'prime'. Its a council flat in some areas hehe
If you remove the words before then yes, what I actually said was "It has been covered alot in media about prime falls(sorry typing on the tube into work, Google will pick it up though) , but my own research showed places that sold for over 900k in 2014 and are now lingering for resale at just over £600k. "

Not council flats as I immediately skip those, I remember attractive mansion houses.

Edited by V6Alfisti on Tuesday 8th August 11:52

p1stonhead

25,489 posts

166 months

Tuesday 8th August 2017
quotequote all
V6Alfisti said:
p1stonhead said:
You didnt say prime you said "my own research showed places that sold for over 900k in 2014 and are now lingering for resale at just over £600k."

£900k or £600k isnt necesarrily 'prime'. Its a council flat in some areas hehe
If you remove the words before then yes, what I actually said was "It has been covered alot in media about prime falls(sorry typing on the tube into work, Google will pick it up though) , but my own research showed places that sold for over 900k in 2014 and are now lingering for resale at just over £600k. "

Not council flats as I immediately skip those, I remember attractive mansion houses.

Edited by V6Alfisti on Tuesday 8th August 11:52
Apologies you did, i cut it from someone else quoting you.

Would be genuinely interested to see examples of primes falling from £900k to £600k. Seems like they might be extreme outliers to me possibly. I cant imagine them not being snapped up if they were ever genuinely bought at near a million and are 'lingering' around £600k which could mean a deal done at £500-600k? Thats a huge drop of which i havent heard anything of the like to be honest.

gibbon

2,182 posts

206 months

Tuesday 8th August 2017
quotequote all
V6Alfisti said:
If you remove the words before then yes, what I actually said was "It has been covered alot in media about prime falls(sorry typing on the tube into work, Google will pick it up though) , but my own research showed places that sold for over 900k in 2014 and are now lingering for resale at just over £600k. "

Not council flats as I immediately skip those, I remember attractive mansion houses.

Edited by V6Alfisti on Tuesday 8th August 11:52
Sorry to be a pedant, and im not trying to pick on you, but please when you have a second show me a genuine prime london, non ex council, non horrible place that sold for circa 900k in 2014 that i can now buy for £600k, attractive and non shoe box like preferably. I would genuinely be interested.

V6Alfisti

3,305 posts

226 months

Tuesday 8th August 2017
quotequote all
gibbon said:
Sorry to be a pedant, and im not trying to pick on you, but please when you have a second show me a genuine prime london, non ex council, non horrible place that sold for circa 900k in 2014 that i can now buy for £600k, attractive and non shoe box like preferably. I would genuinely be interested.
I found one of them.

A quick search of emails found this one, in zone 2. Sold for £1m in 2014, and went STC in June/July at £700k.

Not gorgeous, but not unattractive, not small and not council. Whether or not it is a pent house in central london, or a council flat. A £300k fall is a £300k fall.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatc...

The other I am keeping in my back pocket as I know there are some shennigans going on that could result in a nice buy. Happy to share content/my time/research but not at my expense ! wink



p1stonhead

25,489 posts

166 months

Tuesday 8th August 2017
quotequote all
V6Alfisti said:
gibbon said:
Sorry to be a pedant, and im not trying to pick on you, but please when you have a second show me a genuine prime london, non ex council, non horrible place that sold for circa 900k in 2014 that i can now buy for £600k, attractive and non shoe box like preferably. I would genuinely be interested.
I found one of them.

A quick search of emails found this one, in zone 2. Sold for £1m in 2014, and went STC in June/July at £700k.

Not gorgeous, but not unattractive, not small and not council.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatc...

The other I am keeping in my back pocket as I know there are some shennigans going on that could result in a nice buy. Happy to share content/my time/research but not at my expense ! wink
Are you sure they didnt just decide to rent it out than sell?

Something else must have gone on if it has sold - no one with a single brain cell would sell £300k down after eighteen months. It doesnt make any sense in any way.

People with a million quid tiny flat never need to sell things urgently at a 30% loss.

gibbon

2,182 posts

206 months

Tuesday 8th August 2017
quotequote all
V6Alfisti said:
I found one of them.

A quick search of emails found this one, in zone 2. Sold for £1m in 2014, and went STC in June/July at £700k.

Not gorgeous, but not unattractive, not small and not council. Whether or not it is a pent house in central london, or a council flat. A £300k fall is a £300k fall.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatc...

The other I am keeping in my back pocket as I know there are some shennigans going on that could result in a nice buy. Happy to share content/my time/research but not at my expense ! wink
Thanks.

Links gives me the following-

04 Jan 2016 Flat, Leasehold £1,015,000 Land Registry
04 Sep 1998 Flat, Leasehold £210,000 Land Registry

Jan 2016 not 2014?

£300k in 18months? I guess we need to wait to see the land register details of that going through, but smells fishy, and theres no proof of the second sale price at circa 700k.



V6Alfisti

3,305 posts

226 months

Tuesday 8th August 2017
quotequote all
gibbon said:
Thanks.

Links gives me the following-

04 Jan 2016 Flat, Leasehold £1,015,000 Land Registry
04 Sep 1998 Flat, Leasehold £210,000 Land Registry

Jan 2016 not 2014?

£300k in 18months? I guess we need to wait to see the land register details of that going through, but smells fishy, and theres no proof of the second sale price at circa 700k.
Sorry yep, the 2014 one is the one I have in my back pocket.

Yep, nothing is confirmed until it goes through. Wouldn't surprise me if even that fell/falls through, seeing an increased number of failed sales/chains on property I was interested in.

fido

16,752 posts

254 months

Tuesday 8th August 2017
quotequote all
Not £300k but I've seen a few properties in my locale sold at £150k+ off their asking price last year (Zone 4, SW London). They had also spent a fair chunk on loft extension etc. since purchasing. When I spoke to the agent, they were reluctant to state the reason but I got the impression (and I could be wrong) that they had overstretched their finances and had to sell due to job/life situation. That could explain why they would prefer to sell than rent. Don't forget that rents are down and if you're sitting on 3.5 x joint incomes and financial pressures might dictate a sale rather than struggling on with an uncertain future.

V6Alfisti

3,305 posts

226 months

Tuesday 8th August 2017
quotequote all
V6Alfisti said:
Sorry yep, the 2014 one is the one I have in my back pocket.

Yep, nothing is confirmed until it goes through. Wouldn't surprise me if even that fell/falls through, seeing an increased number of failed sales/chains on property I was interested in.
Another quick example of one that hasn't gone minus but hasn't gone up in 3 years (West Kensington)

Sold in 2014 for £501k, now on the market at £540k having just been refurbed.

That will be surely £510k after even basic negotiation, then the cost of the refurb/stamp duty and inflation factored in. That is a material loss.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

Found after literally 5 minutes on rightmove, much juicier examples can be found skulking around rightmove (with time). Of course there are also many examples where prices are up!.

Edited by V6Alfisti on Tuesday 8th August 12:38

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