North Korea - how serious should we take them?

North Korea - how serious should we take them?

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Discussion

Cobnapint

8,596 posts

150 months

Thursday 20th April 2017
quotequote all
moustachebandit said:
The only reason they are talking nuclear now is because they know everything else they have in their toy box is obsolete, its the only way they can get some much needed attention.

Even when they do have a ICBM nuke its massively unlikely they will ever use it. Its easy to see their ranting and assume they are all out of their minds but they aren't totally stupid. If they carried out a nuclear strike they would be signing their own death warrant and they know that.

A nuclear launch (even if they didn't manage to sucessfully attack anyone) would turn the world against them and I certainly cant see China backing them up in that scenario.

They have put a lot of emphasis on getting nuclear capability, but in the end it will be just as ineffective and useless to them as the rest of their military.
Are you willing to put your house, all it's belongings and yourself on it turning out like that?

You willing to take the risk?

He has a bomb - you and I don't know if he'd use it or not when he reaches full fat ICBM status - why take the chance. He needs snuffing out.

gadgetmac

14,984 posts

107 months

Thursday 20th April 2017
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mybrainhurts said:
gadgetmac said:
Logistically one man cannot run a country. He is being aided and abetted by many-many others.

Yes, he is the ultimate power but he is not the only power in NK. It cannot possibly work like that. Hitler had Goebels et all and likewise tubs has his generals and others its just that their names are unknown to the general public.

So yes, "they" is the correct term.
Ohhhhh, no....it's not.

You're not following NK, are you?
Ohhhh, yes...it is.

And yes, I am following NK.

There aren't enough hours in day or days in a year for one man alone to run a country, it's a silly proposition. Should Kim fall many others will likewise fall with him just like in Iraq, Germany and every other country run by a supreme leader.

ChemicalChaos

10,360 posts

159 months

Thursday 20th April 2017
quotequote all
Cobnapint said:
moustachebandit said:
The only reason they are talking nuclear now is because they know everything else they have in their toy box is obsolete, its the only way they can get some much needed attention.

Even when they do have a ICBM nuke its massively unlikely they will ever use it. Its easy to see their ranting and assume they are all out of their minds but they aren't totally stupid. If they carried out a nuclear strike they would be signing their own death warrant and they know that.

A nuclear launch (even if they didn't manage to sucessfully attack anyone) would turn the world against them and I certainly cant see China backing them up in that scenario.

They have put a lot of emphasis on getting nuclear capability, but in the end it will be just as ineffective and useless to them as the rest of their military.
Are you willing to put your house, all it's belongings and yourself on it turning out like that?

You willing to take the risk?

He has a bomb - you and I don't know if he'd use it or not when he reaches full fat ICBM status - why take the chance. He needs snuffing out.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4421034/North-Korean-defector.html

AJL308

6,390 posts

155 months

Thursday 20th April 2017
quotequote all
mybrainhurts said:
You keep saying "they".

This is a one fatty-man dictatorship who feeds his family to dogs and executes others with anti aircraft guns.

He's worshipped as a god by the populace and everybody is scared stless, lest he throws a tantrum and kills them. Look at any photograph with his generals around him. They all look apprehensive. Plenty of this on the photoshop North Korea thread.

In these circumstances, theorising about what "they" will do is a pointless endeavour.
As my previous - no he isn't. I don't believe that assertion for one second. Yes, everyone is scared stless of him but they don't see him as a deity.

They behave as they are expected to behave, because they know the consequences of doing otherwise. The Japanese under the Emperor weren't like that. They didn't need punishment camps to make them 'believe' that the Emperor was a living god.

In 1,000 years time Fatty's descendants may be seen as living gods but at present he's just a tyrant and his people know that.

moustachebandit

1,264 posts

142 months

Thursday 20th April 2017
quotequote all
ChemicalChaos said:
Cobnapint said:
moustachebandit said:
The only reason they are talking nuclear now is because they know everything else they have in their toy box is obsolete, its the only way they can get some much needed attention.

Even when they do have a ICBM nuke its massively unlikely they will ever use it. Its easy to see their ranting and assume they are all out of their minds but they aren't totally stupid. If they carried out a nuclear strike they would be signing their own death warrant and they know that.

A nuclear launch (even if they didn't manage to sucessfully attack anyone) would turn the world against them and I certainly cant see China backing them up in that scenario.

They have put a lot of emphasis on getting nuclear capability, but in the end it will be just as ineffective and useless to them as the rest of their military.
Are you willing to put your house, all it's belongings and yourself on it turning out like that?

You willing to take the risk?

He has a bomb - you and I don't know if he'd use it or not when he reaches full fat ICBM status - why take the chance. He needs snuffing out.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4421034/North-Korean-defector.html
So you kill Kim Un - then what? Someone else in the regime takes his place. Kim Un is a figurehead it's not just simply a case off cutting the head off the snake.

The DM link also proves nothing. A NK defector claims he would certainly press the button.

Yet she left the country in 1997, so has never lived in the country under Kim Un.

She was also a nobody in NK so would never have met the leaders or anyone of any seniority in the regime. So literally has no idea what he/they would do.

Convenient timing to make such a statement when you are looking to promote your new book about escaping NK.

If it was some senior ranking official making the same claims then it might be cause for concern.



hidetheelephants

23,758 posts

192 months

Thursday 20th April 2017
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Juche is pretty much a theology and his father and grandfather are its deities; whether they truly believe is academic as the practical outcome is the same.

anonymous-user

53 months

Friday 21st April 2017
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Robertj21a said:
If the rest of the world is primarily concerned with what Crazy PieMan could do with weapons, I would have thought that the Yanks/GCHQ/Chinese et al would, by now, have the technical ability to intercept electronic commands, use viruses, re-program his key systems etc etc
Why do you think that?

Weapons systems aren't on the internet, all it takes to send a message is a lacky on a pushbike. The real world doesn't work like a bond film.

V8 Fettler

7,019 posts

131 months

Friday 21st April 2017
quotequote all
hidetheelephants said:
V8 Fettler said:
The USA bankrupted the Soviet Union, China could bankrupt North Korea is bankrupt, they can't afford to feed the population, have relied on food aid for decades and cannot buy things and import them without using cold hard cash because they've bilked so many companies over unpaid bills.
Fixed that for you. Comedy basket case with comic opera tyrant held in place by Chinese hegemony.

Edited by hidetheelephants on Thursday 20th April 19:12
China holds the key


Robertj21a

16,475 posts

104 months

Friday 21st April 2017
quotequote all
jsf said:
Robertj21a said:
If the rest of the world is primarily concerned with what Crazy PieMan could do with weapons, I would have thought that the Yanks/GCHQ/Chinese et al would, by now, have the technical ability to intercept electronic commands, use viruses, re-program his key systems etc etc
Why do you think that?

Weapons systems aren't on the internet, all it takes to send a message is a lacky on a pushbike. The real world doesn't work like a bond film.
Yes, fully understood. I just find it difficult to believe that the vast skills available, in the US and across the world, haven't already been used to identify what could be done to upset any plans PieMan may have. After all, risk assessments are supposed to lead to some further action plans. I certainly hope that everyone isn't just twiddling their thumbs waiting........

sherbertdip

1,097 posts

118 months

Friday 21st April 2017
quotequote all
Robertj21a said:
jsf said:
Robertj21a said:
If the rest of the world is primarily concerned with what Crazy PieMan could do with weapons, I would have thought that the Yanks/GCHQ/Chinese et al would, by now, have the technical ability to intercept electronic commands, use viruses, re-program his key systems etc etc
Why do you think that?

Weapons systems aren't on the internet, all it takes to send a message is a lacky on a pushbike. The real world doesn't work like a bond film.
Yes, fully understood. I just find it difficult to believe that the vast skills available, in the US and across the world, haven't already been used to identify what could be done to upset any plans PieMan may have. After all, risk assessments are supposed to lead to some further action plans. I certainly hope that everyone isn't just twiddling their thumbs waiting........
Do you really think that all the "vast skills available" haven't already devised plans the scenario planning? Planning is one thing, doing is another and dealing with the fallout (pun intended) has been proved to be incrementally more difficult for each stage of the, well, call it a "Project".

Also risk assessments as you've put it always identify a range of risks from, easy to mitigate, to fk - me we can't do anything about it, I hope it never materialises into an issue.

That brings me onto another point about the wee-rotund one, he isn't a risk, he's an issue, an issue that is outwardly looking as if it's getting worse, issues when happening are always harder to stop and rectify, it's better to manage the risk before hand, maybe we've missed the boat, wish isn't a pleasant prospect........


Robertj21a

16,475 posts

104 months

Friday 21st April 2017
quotequote all
sherbertdip said:
Robertj21a said:
jsf said:
Robertj21a said:
If the rest of the world is primarily concerned with what Crazy PieMan could do with weapons, I would have thought that the Yanks/GCHQ/Chinese et al would, by now, have the technical ability to intercept electronic commands, use viruses, re-program his key systems etc etc
Why do you think that?

Weapons systems aren't on the internet, all it takes to send a message is a lacky on a pushbike. The real world doesn't work like a bond film.
Yes, fully understood. I just find it difficult to believe that the vast skills available, in the US and across the world, haven't already been used to identify what could be done to upset any plans PieMan may have. After all, risk assessments are supposed to lead to some further action plans. I certainly hope that everyone isn't just twiddling their thumbs waiting........
Do you really think that all the "vast skills available" haven't already devised plans the scenario planning? Planning is one thing, doing is another and dealing with the fallout (pun intended) has been proved to be incrementally more difficult for each stage of the, well, call it a "Project".

Also risk assessments as you've put it always identify a range of risks from, easy to mitigate, to fk - me we can't do anything about it, I hope it never materialises into an issue.

.
Which is all I said in my original post......

sherbertdip

1,097 posts

118 months

Friday 21st April 2017
quotequote all
Robertj21a said:
sherbertdip said:
Robertj21a said:
jsf said:
Robertj21a said:
If the rest of the world is primarily concerned with what Crazy PieMan could do with weapons, I would have thought that the Yanks/GCHQ/Chinese et al would, by now, have the technical ability to intercept electronic commands, use viruses, re-program his key systems etc etc
Why do you think that?

Weapons systems aren't on the internet, all it takes to send a message is a lacky on a pushbike. The real world doesn't work like a bond film.
Yes, fully understood. I just find it difficult to believe that the vast skills available, in the US and across the world, haven't already been used to identify what could be done to upset any plans PieMan may have. After all, risk assessments are supposed to lead to some further action plans. I certainly hope that everyone isn't just twiddling their thumbs waiting........
Do you really think that all the "vast skills available" haven't already devised plans the scenario planning? Planning is one thing, doing is another and dealing with the fallout (pun intended) has been proved to be incrementally more difficult for each stage of the, well, call it a "Project".

Also risk assessments as you've put it always identify a range of risks from, easy to mitigate, to fk - me we can't do anything about it, I hope it never materialises into an issue.

.
Which is all I said in my original post......
Erm, not really, maybe we are just looking at it from different perspectives, it matters not a jot! .

yajeed

4,888 posts

253 months

Friday 21st April 2017
quotequote all
Robertj21a said:
Yes, fully understood. I just find it difficult to believe that the vast skills available, in the US and across the world, haven't already been used to identify what could be done to upset any plans PieMan may have. After all, risk assessments are supposed to lead to some further action plans. I certainly hope that everyone isn't just twiddling their thumbs waiting........
Wasn't the rumour that a western cyber attack had contributed to the latest launch failure.

That said, whether the systems are segregated/isolated or not, there are ways to get at them (as was done with Stuxnet in Iran).

mybrainhurts

90,809 posts

254 months

Friday 21st April 2017
quotequote all
AJL308 said:
mybrainhurts said:
You keep saying "they".

This is a one fatty-man dictatorship who feeds his family to dogs and executes others with anti aircraft guns.

He's worshipped as a god by the populace and everybody is scared stless, lest he throws a tantrum and kills them. Look at any photograph with his generals around him. They all look apprehensive. Plenty of this on the photoshop North Korea thread.

In these circumstances, theorising about what "they" will do is a pointless endeavour.
As my previous - no he isn't. I don't believe that assertion for one second. Yes, everyone is scared stless of him but they don't see him as a deity.
Oh, FFS...this is PH, choose your words very carefully, we have an Inquisition waiting in the wings.

For the benefit of hair splitters....

The populace is required to worship him as a god...

Better now...?




bitchstewie

50,781 posts

209 months

Friday 21st April 2017
quotequote all
mybrainhurts said:
Oh, FFS...this is PH, choose your words very carefully, we have an Inquisition waiting in the wings.

For the benefit of hair splitters....

The populace is required to worship him as a god...

Better now...?
At the risk of being called a hair splitter I do think there's a difference between believing someone is some kind of god vs. simply knowing you're likely to be re-accommodated if you don't act as if they are one.

Efbe

9,251 posts

165 months

Friday 21st April 2017
quotequote all
AJL308 said:
mybrainhurts said:
You keep saying "they".

This is a one fatty-man dictatorship who feeds his family to dogs and executes others with anti aircraft guns.

He's worshipped as a god by the populace and everybody is scared stless, lest he throws a tantrum and kills them. Look at any photograph with his generals around him. They all look apprehensive. Plenty of this on the photoshop North Korea thread.

In these circumstances, theorising about what "they" will do is a pointless endeavour.
As my previous - no he isn't. I don't believe that assertion for one second. Yes, everyone is scared stless of him but they don't see him as a deity.

They behave as they are expected to behave, because they know the consequences of doing otherwise. The Japanese under the Emperor weren't like that. They didn't need punishment camps to make them 'believe' that the Emperor was a living god.

In 1,000 years time Fatty's descendants may be seen as living gods but at present he's just a tyrant and his people know that.
No they really don't.

There is a growing middle class in Pyongyang that are starting to slowly see this, but 99% of his people love him dearly.

The POV is this: He, like his father and father before him has saved them. He is single handedly stopping the evil western empire of the USA from overrunning their country by developing defense systems that scare the US off.
He clothes them, feeds them, houses them, educates them DESPITE the best efforts of the US Empire to stop him.
They are the greatest nation on earth, the purest, the most untouched by the evil US empire which is arrogant and selfish, walking oer the world for their own benefit.

The only way they would know anything different is if they had perspective, which they don't.

If they did hate him so much, would they not leave!

mybrainhurts

90,809 posts

254 months

Friday 21st April 2017
quotequote all
bhstewie said:
mybrainhurts said:
Oh, FFS...this is PH, choose your words very carefully, we have an Inquisition waiting in the wings.

For the benefit of hair splitters....

The populace is required to worship him as a god...

Better now...?
At the risk of being called a hair splitter I do think there's a difference between believing someone is some kind of god vs. simply knowing you're likely to be re-accommodated if you don't act as if they are one.
Yes, Mr Hairsplitter mk11, that's what I meant, but I carelessly framed my words badly.

Robertj21a

16,475 posts

104 months

Friday 21st April 2017
quotequote all

Channel 4 'Unreported World' has just had 30 mins on North Korean defectors now living in South Korea - very interesting.

Efbe

9,251 posts

165 months

Friday 21st April 2017
quotequote all
Robertj21a said:
Channel 4 'Unreported World' has just had 30 mins on North Korean defectors now living in South Korea - very interesting.
It's a difficult one.

People that defect, by their very nature will have a more negative view of what they have defected from than anyone else.
But they will also have needed the means to defect, and so from a country like NK are more likely to have been from the ruling classes.

These people will also have made a career post defection of selling their story, so it has to be a good one.
There are very few defectors from NK, which I find really odd.

Either NK has amazing security against defectors. I find this strange because they have quite a big fishing community, which have every option to defect to Chinese mainland.
Or, the people just don't realise how bad a situation they are in. This is much more likely. With no internet, a controlled intranet and state run media/news outlets/radio they will only ever hear the party line.

You could liken it to the fact that no British citizen has ever defected to Mars. Maybe we could, but we just don't know we can. Ok it's a bad analogy, but you get the idea.

Fabric

3,818 posts

191 months

Friday 21st April 2017
quotequote all
Efbe said:
I find this strange because they have quite a big fishing community, which have every option to defect to Chinese mainland.
They do, frequently. 65 washed up in Japan alone in 2014, usually full of dead fishermen.