North Korea - how serious should we take them?
Discussion
bloomen said:
I wonder if the current detente will do anything to reduce the misery for many an average North Korean.
I very much doubt it.Can't see the barbed wire and machine gun nests coming down, there's be a stampede in a southerly direction, leaving Kim reigning over just himself and a few devoted side kicks.
This is more the start of a long term takeover bid of the South by the North.
Oakey said:
Weren't you a big defender of North Korea in this thread saying that diplomacy was the key to success?
kind of.I'm not a defender of them at all. Quite the opposite, I just think the approach America has taken is absolutely s
t.The yanks have now excluded themselves from talks, given NK a perfect way of getting the US out of SK, and given NK a green light on rebuilding their nuke dev infrastructure whilst getting international aid and restarting it all again when ready... as they have done before.
The route to success I suggest is by opening up trade to NK. Empowering their middle class through technology and communications, and bringing about a slow internal change.
Military threats were never going to work, as we see now it's diplomacy that is working.
My other concern is Moon, I don't trust the guy to see what Kim may be trying to do
Cobnapint said:
I very much doubt it.
Can't see the barbed wire and machine gun nests coming down, there's be a stampede in a southerly direction, leaving Kim reigning over just himself and a few devoted side kicks.
This is more the start of a long term takeover bid of the South by the North.
It's not just me thinking it's a ruse for the South to lower their defences so the North can come rushing over the border tomorrow!Can't see the barbed wire and machine gun nests coming down, there's be a stampede in a southerly direction, leaving Kim reigning over just himself and a few devoted side kicks.
This is more the start of a long term takeover bid of the South by the North.
Cobnapint said:
I very much doubt it.
Can't see the barbed wire and machine gun nests coming down, there's be a stampede in a southerly direction, leaving Kim reigning over just himself and a few devoted side kicks.
This is more the start of a long term takeover bid of the South by the North.
The north has food shortages power cuts and a dodgy fake DisneylandCan't see the barbed wire and machine gun nests coming down, there's be a stampede in a southerly direction, leaving Kim reigning over just himself and a few devoted side kicks.
This is more the start of a long term takeover bid of the South by the North.
The south has super fast broadband, Netflix, McDonald’s and gangnam style
If the border comes down, the N Korean regime will be gone and replaced by chaos followed by criminal gangs and then some kind of pretend democracy like in Russia with Kim’s cronies taking over the industry.
Expect to see rich N Koreans draped in Gucci buying up London in ten years time.
Derek Smith said:
p1stonhead said:
Want to believe this is genuine but I am skeptical to the extreme
It is remarkable. I find it difficult to believe that he's genuine. I wonder why he's doing this.I am skeptical but also hopeful. This is about as good as it has been (Korea peninsula peace) this last 60 years or so, I just hope that it isn't squandered, regardless of how it has come about.
Whatever the result it won't be an overnight affair. Fingers crossed that all of the Korean powers that be are willing and able to reach an agreeable accord.
It could possibly be that he has no other option.
He's sanctioned up to the eyeballs, he knows Trump would love to flatten him, his main nuclear test site is buried under a rather heavy mountain and his best buddy (China) is getting pretty fed up with him.
He needs money and to get money he has to get the sanctions lifted.
The elephant in the room is that he's allegedly about to throw decades of surreptitiously acquired nuclear development and material straight out of the window in a bid for peace and trade, but he had those before he started testing, so it begs the question why bother in the first place.
He's sanctioned up to the eyeballs, he knows Trump would love to flatten him, his main nuclear test site is buried under a rather heavy mountain and his best buddy (China) is getting pretty fed up with him.
He needs money and to get money he has to get the sanctions lifted.
The elephant in the room is that he's allegedly about to throw decades of surreptitiously acquired nuclear development and material straight out of the window in a bid for peace and trade, but he had those before he started testing, so it begs the question why bother in the first place.
I think there is a possibility that Kim has realised he will not be able to contain the North Korean populace indefinitely - the large majority of the population know privately that their lives and economic circumstances are far inferior to those of their southern neighbours. There has been a flood of mobile phones into NK in the past few years, along with access to media from outside the country.
Kim will be conscious that if his people ever revolt, he and his family will likely be lynched. And the one thing that would drive his people to revolt would be a further decline in living standards, and mass starvation.
He needs to get money into his country, and raise the standard of living quickly if he is to survive in the long term. Being able to say that he negotiated from a position of strength, brough prosperity (or at least a better standard of living) to his people, and ended NK's pariah status is his best bet, on balance, to preserve his regime. The rest of the world will pile in aid to stabilise the country, and he will take much of the credit as the man who made it happen through making NK a "strong" country as a result of his nuclear programme.
Kim will be conscious that if his people ever revolt, he and his family will likely be lynched. And the one thing that would drive his people to revolt would be a further decline in living standards, and mass starvation.
He needs to get money into his country, and raise the standard of living quickly if he is to survive in the long term. Being able to say that he negotiated from a position of strength, brough prosperity (or at least a better standard of living) to his people, and ended NK's pariah status is his best bet, on balance, to preserve his regime. The rest of the world will pile in aid to stabilise the country, and he will take much of the credit as the man who made it happen through making NK a "strong" country as a result of his nuclear programme.
My thoughts are as follows:
- De-nuclearisation; They have the tech now. They could feasibly dispose of the current stockpile safe in the knowledge that should tensions rise again, they have the know-how and capability to build more. This gets sanctions lifted.
- Peace with the South; Big Kim will likely want to offer the South peace on the basis that they get rid of the US presence on their soil. Trade will begin to flow as could potentially, people. Additionally, having nukes wouldn't save them if the long feared joint US/South invasion ever occurred as they'd be essentially nuking themselves pretty much. This also gets one over on the US and "rids" the peninsula of them.
Of course there might be something else at work, but that's what first comes to mind for me. Either way, it's quite fascinating.
- De-nuclearisation; They have the tech now. They could feasibly dispose of the current stockpile safe in the knowledge that should tensions rise again, they have the know-how and capability to build more. This gets sanctions lifted.
- Peace with the South; Big Kim will likely want to offer the South peace on the basis that they get rid of the US presence on their soil. Trade will begin to flow as could potentially, people. Additionally, having nukes wouldn't save them if the long feared joint US/South invasion ever occurred as they'd be essentially nuking themselves pretty much. This also gets one over on the US and "rids" the peninsula of them.
Of course there might be something else at work, but that's what first comes to mind for me. Either way, it's quite fascinating.
He's about to put himself in the situation where he's going to have to break it to his happy clappy subjects that - you know those succesful nuclear tests we were exalting about last year, and how they'd guarantee the safety of you all from those evil imperialists in the USA you've all been taught about since the age of three...........weeeeellllll......
Either that or they'll never get to know he's binned them.
Something doesn't add up.
Either that or they'll never get to know he's binned them.
Something doesn't add up.
[quote=TroubledSoul]
- De-nuclearisation; They have the tech now. They could feasibly dispose of the current stockpile safe in the knowledge that should tensions rise again, they have the know-how and capability to build more. This gets sanctions lifted.
/quote]
Thing is with nukes, that it doesn't matter if the ones they have would work or not. It's the threat that they could work.
So far they have worked very well for NK, so I really don't see them getting rid of them.
Any other country in a similar position, (i.e. isolationist regime ruled over by a despot) has been invaded. Nukes seem to have sorted that for them. What a lesson for others!
- De-nuclearisation; They have the tech now. They could feasibly dispose of the current stockpile safe in the knowledge that should tensions rise again, they have the know-how and capability to build more. This gets sanctions lifted.
/quote]
Thing is with nukes, that it doesn't matter if the ones they have would work or not. It's the threat that they could work.
So far they have worked very well for NK, so I really don't see them getting rid of them.
Any other country in a similar position, (i.e. isolationist regime ruled over by a despot) has been invaded. Nukes seem to have sorted that for them. What a lesson for others!
Efbe]roubledSoul said:
- De-nuclearisation; They have the tech now. They could feasibly dispose of the current stockpile safe in the knowledge that should tensions rise again, they have the know-how and capability to build more. This gets sanctions lifted.
/quote]
Thing is with nukes, that it doesn't matter if the ones they have would work or not. It's the threat that they could work.
So far they have worked very well for NK, so I really don't see them getting rid of them.
Any other country in a similar position, (i.e. isolationist regime ruled over by a despot) has been invaded. Nukes seem to have sorted that for them. What a lesson for others!
Good point /quote]
Thing is with nukes, that it doesn't matter if the ones they have would work or not. It's the threat that they could work.
So far they have worked very well for NK, so I really don't see them getting rid of them.
Any other country in a similar position, (i.e. isolationist regime ruled over by a despot) has been invaded. Nukes seem to have sorted that for them. What a lesson for others!
This is some trippy sh*t. I just had a quick look over the "daily fail" and my god there are some pretty crazy photos of this.
I would LOVE to know whats triggered this, its just too OTT. It has to be they have some proper dirty on him or that they bumped him off and this is his double or something. Seriously its almost as crazy as OBL walking into the Oval Office tomorrow and shaking hands with Trump.
I would LOVE to know whats triggered this, its just too OTT. It has to be they have some proper dirty on him or that they bumped him off and this is his double or something. Seriously its almost as crazy as OBL walking into the Oval Office tomorrow and shaking hands with Trump.
Gad-Westy said:
Notice right at the end, as soon as the car goes behind them trees, they stop running and get picked up in that wagon behind! Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff