Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
Ozzie Osmond said:
Topstuff said:
Unemployment is at staggering levels across the Eurozone. Youth unemployment and disenfranchisement is now so serious in countries like Spain, Ireland, Portugal and France that an entire generation is affected. The ramifications of this will play out over the next decades to come.
This is undoubtedly the BIG issue IMO.But it has nothing whatsoever to do with the Euro. The dreamers on here who keep asserting "if only they had their own currency everything would be OK" are talking unmitigated rubbish.
The issue that will play out is far more political than economic. The next socialist revolution is on the way.
In essence I agree with Ozzie's conclusion, if for quite different reasons. However, I cannot understand why he thinks EZ unemployment is nothing to do with the Euro, when in fact it is absolutely everything to do with it. I cannot be bothered to run through the reasons why this is so, he's heard them a thousand times and refuses to accept that a country running a fixed rate and overvalued currency when your competitiveness relative to peers is reduced will not lead to unemployment and business failure.
I do agree going back to individual currencies would not be a walk in the park. But what else is there except default and devalue? It's worked a thousand times in the past, harsh but ultimately works. So Ozzie, show me a single example of where austerity has worked?
I agree that the "play out" will be political, it always is. But the politics are entirely caused by the economics, classic cause and effect. Until then European misery is assured.
Oh, and last night Cyprus
http://www.mindfulmoney.co.uk/wp/shaun-richards/ti...
In summary, the end of the Euro is nigh (but only in a year to eighteen months)
Edited by Andy Zarse on Friday 28th June 15:45
CommanderJameson said:
REALIST123 said:
You're right. Just because something survives doesn't mean it hasn't been a failure. I can't see how the EU or Euro can be, by any measure, considered to be a success.
One objective of the Europe project was to avoid the kind of war that ravaged the continent from 1914-1945 and, intermittently, for centuries beforehand. The 30 Years War made a right bloody mess of what is now Germany, for example.i do find it funny that the best pro-euro offering here is that you are wrong because it hasn't collapsed, yet. the same feeble defence could, and was, made of us house prices in 2006 and every other mania, bubble and mass delusion in history. as i have always said i think the euro will survive for more than the foreseable future 
. those calling for it's demise are imo logically and economically correct but totally underestimate the political will to avoid failure of their pet project and humiliation.
here's the other thing; it has a hell of a way to fall before it can be deemed to have failed. we're at 1.3 from 0.82 in 2000 and no one expects the imminent demise of the dollar.
imo the euro is here to stay, the euro area will plod on mired in consecutive recessions for decades, marred with shocking unemployment amongst a completely disenfranshised electorate, ruled by an unelected socialist beaurocracy concerned only with its own political survival with no agenda for growh. next up; demographic crisis in old europe as the more entreprenurial youth and wealthy leave and the locals push back against immigration...
. those calling for it's demise are imo logically and economically correct but totally underestimate the political will to avoid failure of their pet project and humiliation. here's the other thing; it has a hell of a way to fall before it can be deemed to have failed. we're at 1.3 from 0.82 in 2000 and no one expects the imminent demise of the dollar.
imo the euro is here to stay, the euro area will plod on mired in consecutive recessions for decades, marred with shocking unemployment amongst a completely disenfranshised electorate, ruled by an unelected socialist beaurocracy concerned only with its own political survival with no agenda for growh. next up; demographic crisis in old europe as the more entreprenurial youth and wealthy leave and the locals push back against immigration...
s2art said:
CommanderJameson said:
REALIST123 said:
You're right. Just because something survives doesn't mean it hasn't been a failure. I can't see how the EU or Euro can be, by any measure, considered to be a success.
One objective of the Europe project was to avoid the kind of war that ravaged the continent from 1914-1945 and, intermittently, for centuries beforehand. The 30 Years War made a right bloody mess of what is now Germany, for example.So, in effect, the Euro has all but destroyed forty years of work in a decade.
Blib said:
Bringing Germany back into the European "family", to rehabilitate it after WWII was a major concern at the time. Ironically, Merkel and Germany is now seen as "the enemy" by millions of the disadvantaged throughout the continent.
So, in effect, the Euro has all but destroyed forty years of work in a decade.
And they were put into power by the very people who fought them.So, in effect, the Euro has all but destroyed forty years of work in a decade.
fbrs said:
imo the euro is here to stay, the euro area will plod on mired in consecutive recessions for decades, marred with shocking unemployment amongst a completely disenfranshised electorate, ruled by an unelected socialist beaurocracy concerned only with its own political survival with no agenda for growh. next up; demographic crisis in old europe as the more entreprenurial youth and wealthy leave and the locals push back against immigration...
This. All of it.Suggesting all be well and that somehow the EURO is a separate issue from the EU is wrong, wrong, wrong. And on so many levels.
The problems Europe has are precisely because of the imbalances of the EURO and the relative role each country plays in the Eurozone.
Some European countries have such systematic, fundamental problems with youth unemployment and debt that they can only stay in the Euro if Germany is happy to continue paying for them. The problem with this is that because of the "brain drain" of youth migration and debt, these countries do not have competitive industries and there is no hope of that changing over the next decade or two.
Germany can only continue paying for them if the rest of the world buys their kit. If Chinese stop buying Volkswagens, they have a problem.
Even then, Germans may resent the fact that they are paying for the rest of Europe. But if they stop paying, some EU countries are doomed. This leads to political instability, which leads to volatility (which investors hate) which leads to currency weakness, which sinks everybody...
Germany has no choice other than to keep paying.
This is not good.
So the fundamental problems remain. But the pace of development of the crisis is happening over a much longer time frame than some people in these threads predicted.
s2art said:
Someone may have claimed that, but the reality is that NATO ensures peace, not the EU.
it was certainly the main aim of the european coal and steel community in 1950. the ECSC then merged with the EEC and EAEC to become the EEC which became the EC, which became part of the EU. supporters of the EU now use this to claim the EU has kept peace in europe for 60 years. somehow the cold war past them by. it's ok to laugh at them.Guam said:
Everything is fine in the Eurozone and France is doing really really well, Ozzy should be pleased..................
Yeah right!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis...
As the article says from the start: Yeah right!http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis...
Tempers fray in France as drastic cuts loom, (Because Socialists prefer telling lies to facing reality.)
France's budget watchdog has called for another round of drastic cuts and an immediate freeze in public sector pay and benefits, warning that public finances are badly off track as deep recession eats into tax revenues.
No surprises there then to anyone actually watching the economic figures.
The idiot known as Hollonde is typically socialist in his negotiations. Bluff and bluster are the two strongest weapons he has supported by shouting and screaming. Typical small man approach.
Exactly the same approach as Millipede and Balls up offer in the UK Bluff and bluster and scream and shout. Added to the typical "Its everyone else's fault honest guv," being the Warcry trotted out time and again. Delusional mysticism is no substitute for realistic policies. As the Socialists are finding out in Europe generally. I cannot see how these delusional dreamers can hold this crumbling mess together.
Steffan said:
Exactly the same approach as Millipede and Balls up offer in the UK Bluff and bluster and scream and shout. Added to the typical "Its everyone else's fault honest guv," being the Warcry trotted out time and again. Delusional mysticism is no substitute for realistic policies. As the Socialists are finding out in Europe generally.
It does make an extraordinary spectacle to see Ed Balls (and others) in full flight. Utter clowns.
But imagine they win and he is the ChancellorTwo stories today that I saw...
First is the attack again on the UK rebate. In Feb it was agreed, confirmed it was fine during the day, Cameron goes to dinner where it is snuck on to an amendment that the UK rebate will change...lovely people we are "partners" with.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/david-came...
Looks like it could be it for sugar in London to the benefit of France and Germany.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/tate-and-lyl...
First is the attack again on the UK rebate. In Feb it was agreed, confirmed it was fine during the day, Cameron goes to dinner where it is snuck on to an amendment that the UK rebate will change...lovely people we are "partners" with.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/david-came...
Looks like it could be it for sugar in London to the benefit of France and Germany.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/tate-and-lyl...
Ozzie Osmond said:
Did I remember to mention 1,000 pages and 2 years of British moaning and groaning about the foreigners? Daily assertions that the euro is finished? Daily assertions that the EU will disintegrate?
Well guess what. The moaners have been consistently wrong. And my money says the next 500 pages and the next 12 months will follow the same pattern.
Oz...Greece, Portual and Spanish economies *have* disintegrated.Well guess what. The moaners have been consistently wrong. And my money says the next 500 pages and the next 12 months will follow the same pattern.
DJRC said:
Oz...Greece, Portual and Spanish economies *have* disintegrated.
Don't forget that the UK is way more indebted then any of those countries, so they may be secretly laughing at us. In fact, of all the first world countries, we are in third place for debts, and probably have no chance of repaying these debts. If interest rates go up, it'll really be hard times. Who will bale us out? What will that mean for the Euro and the UK?dandare said:
DJRC said:
Oz...Greece, Portual and Spanish economies *have* disintegrated.
Don't forget that the UK is way more indebted then any of those countries, so they may be secretly laughing at us. In fact, of all the first world countries, we are in third place for debts, and probably have no chance of repaying these debts. If interest rates go up, it'll really be hard times. Who will bale us out? What will that mean for the Euro and the UK?
Ozzie Osmond said:
Mermaid said:
IMO Ed Balls is a liability to the Labour party, ditch him now
Oh I so hope that he is. Keep him! Keep him!ine having isImagine having his awful wife (??) Yvette Cooper on the same team. Beware the Ides of March Mr Millipede beware the Ides of March! That can not be an easy alliance by any manner of means be it a Balls/Cooper or a Balls/ Miilipede or a Millipde/Balls up. They all deserve each other IMO. God what a dreadful, self serving unappealing obviously two faced self interested lot these modern politicians really have come to be. Obviously!
Edited by Steffan on Saturday 29th June 12:34
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