Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
Gargamel said:
Thought they had junked the idea of a return to the Lira.
However asking for 250bn in bond cancellation is a good start if you want to upset the rest of Europe.
Suspect they will fall apart under pressure from the EU and Italy will be back to elections within a year, as seems to be the way in Italy.
Will be interesting to see if they can get any traction
so if Italy go back to the Lira - does that wipe out their euro debts? However asking for 250bn in bond cancellation is a good start if you want to upset the rest of Europe.
Suspect they will fall apart under pressure from the EU and Italy will be back to elections within a year, as seems to be the way in Italy.
Will be interesting to see if they can get any traction
can they print up x million lire and pay off the euro debt with it?
will they have rampant inflation again if they did that?
superlightr said:
so if Italy go back to the Lira - does that wipe out their euro debts?
can they print up x million lire and pay off the euro debt with it?
will they have rampant inflation again if they did that?
There is no mechanism for leaving the Euro, and even 5 Star don't believe in a return to the Lira anymore. It would almost certainly be in the "too hard" boxcan they print up x million lire and pay off the euro debt with it?
will they have rampant inflation again if they did that?
However in theory ..
On debts, almost certainly not you would still have to pay, and like any Government Italy would still need Euro and Dollar banking reserves.
They could debauch the currency, print money and repay with that. Yes its a good theory, but it would also wreck the economy as the price of imports would sky rocket (including Oil)
Yes inflation would be higher and there would be a lot of grumbling, however that hill top farm in Tuscany I have always wanted would be a lot cheaper and Italian Reds (and some of their lovely brunnettes) would also be more available... So I think it is a winning policy
Gargamel said:
superlightr said:
so if Italy go back to the Lira - does that wipe out their euro debts?
can they print up x million lire and pay off the euro debt with it?
will they have rampant inflation again if they did that?
There is no mechanism for leaving the Euro, and even 5 Star don't believe in a return to the Lira anymore. It would almost certainly be in the "too hard" boxcan they print up x million lire and pay off the euro debt with it?
will they have rampant inflation again if they did that?
However in theory ..
On debts, almost certainly not you would still have to pay, and like any Government Italy would still need Euro and Dollar banking reserves.
They could debauch the currency, print money and repay with that. Yes its a good theory, but it would also wreck the economy as the price of imports would sky rocket (including Oil)
Yes inflation would be higher and there would be a lot of grumbling, however that hill top farm in Tuscany I have always wanted would be a lot cheaper and Italian Reds (and some of their lovely brunnettes) would also be more available... So I think it is a winning policy
Strictly speaking, I'm not sure if they have to 'leave' the Euro, or simply resurrect a second currency (Lira Mk2) for local trade and taxes. No idea.
ked. It's behind Greece's vnational debt but it's creaking like crazy.From what i understood the plan from Italy is to introduce a currency to run alongside the Euro rather than to replace it initially. If the currency gains enough traction then they could further down the line look to in effect phase out the Euro as Italies primary currency.
Basically i get the idea there is a long term game plan to leave the EU by inches. Bring in a currency alongside the Euro, bring in a flat tax which will also mean they can close a lot of the present loopholes by which italians avoid taxes and if that all pans out and their economy remains stable they can then hold a referendum/election based on leaving the EU.
This whole situation is why I voted Brexit in the first place. The EU and Euro are mortally wounded and limping along to their death. The UK if it remains part of or tied to the EU economically is at just as much risk as all the other countries in the EU when it all comes crashing down.
If we are outside the EU and have built our own FTA or even tarrifed agreements with other countries independently we will be much better off when the EU and Euro goes belly up.
Its not just Italy. Its Hungary, Greece, Spain etc. Even the French are starting to turn from the EU.
Basically i get the idea there is a long term game plan to leave the EU by inches. Bring in a currency alongside the Euro, bring in a flat tax which will also mean they can close a lot of the present loopholes by which italians avoid taxes and if that all pans out and their economy remains stable they can then hold a referendum/election based on leaving the EU.
This whole situation is why I voted Brexit in the first place. The EU and Euro are mortally wounded and limping along to their death. The UK if it remains part of or tied to the EU economically is at just as much risk as all the other countries in the EU when it all comes crashing down.
If we are outside the EU and have built our own FTA or even tarrifed agreements with other countries independently we will be much better off when the EU and Euro goes belly up.
Its not just Italy. Its Hungary, Greece, Spain etc. Even the French are starting to turn from the EU.
Greece would be apoplectic if Italy got any sort of concessions on their debt and, furthermore, what sort of message would it send to other Euro nations?
I do think it possible Italy may have the political and public will to pull off the task of launching a parallel currency. And then, what for the Euro....?
France is the really huge issue though, both in financial and political magnitude. Within the EU, it likes to see itself on a footing with Germany (it certainly has significant influence) but, at the same time, it's finances are not great. In a sense, France is attempting to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds.
I do think it possible Italy may have the political and public will to pull off the task of launching a parallel currency. And then, what for the Euro....?
France is the really huge issue though, both in financial and political magnitude. Within the EU, it likes to see itself on a footing with Germany (it certainly has significant influence) but, at the same time, it's finances are not great. In a sense, France is attempting to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds.
Digga said:
Greece would be apoplectic if Italy got any sort of concessions on their debt and, furthermore, what sort of message would it send to other Euro nations?
I do think it possible Italy may have the political and public will to pull off the task of launching a parallel currency. And then, what for the Euro....?
France is the really huge issue though, both in financial and political magnitude. Within the EU, it likes to see itself on a footing with Germany (it certainly has significant influence) but, at the same time, it's finances are not great. In a sense, France is attempting to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds.
Indeed. I dont see Italy getting any kind of Debt relief. Germany isnt exactly as healthy as they like to pretend either going by a video I saw from their Parliament from an AFD? member iirc who was hauling the government over the coals over thier budget as they had left serious defecit issues out of the budget documents.I do think it possible Italy may have the political and public will to pull off the task of launching a parallel currency. And then, what for the Euro....?
France is the really huge issue though, both in financial and political magnitude. Within the EU, it likes to see itself on a footing with Germany (it certainly has significant influence) but, at the same time, it's finances are not great. In a sense, France is attempting to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds.
France isnt great but lets be fair as the UK is also a little "unsteady" in budgetary terms albeit it does seem to be getting better.
Edited by frankenstein12 on Friday 18th May 14:45
frankenstein12 said:
France isnt great but lets be fair as the UK is also a little "unsteady" in budgetary terms albeit it does seem to be getting better.
I'm not gloating and I'm not making a comparison with the UK really, but in and of itself, the French economy is a concern. Not only the budget side, but also the long term business and employment backdrop. Lest we not forget, much of the country's rail network will be disrupted over the next few weeks, as just one example.France's problem is that, like Italy, it lacks an independent currency with which to re-balance any weaknesses. There is a reason why France is campaigning for EU budget reform; because under the present system, they are doomed to repeatedly face criticism from the EU for their own budget without it until, at some point, there is a day of reckoning.
The huge Target 2 imbalances continue with Germany in credit to the tune of €923bn, Greece with a negative balance of €48bn, France negative balance of €66 bn and Italy with a whopping €442bn which is the worst in the Eurozone. Effectively the countries with negative balances owe Germany (and some other smaller members that are in credit) those Euros for goods and services that they have purchased.
frankenstein12 said:
From what i understood the plan from Italy is to introduce a currency to run alongside the Euro rather than to replace it initially. If the currency gains enough traction then they could further down the line look to in effect phase out the Euro as Italies primary currency.
Basically i get the idea there is a long term game plan to leave the EU by inches. Bring in a currency alongside the Euro, bring in a flat tax which will also mean they can close a lot of the present loopholes by which italians avoid taxes and if that all pans out and their economy remains stable they can then hold a referendum/election based on leaving the EU.
This whole situation is why I voted Brexit in the first place. The EU and Euro are mortally wounded and limping along to their death. The UK if it remains part of or tied to the EU economically is at just as much risk as all the other countries in the EU when it all comes crashing down.
If we are outside the EU and have built our own FTA or even tarrifed agreements with other countries independently we will be much better off when the EU and Euro goes belly up.
Its not just Italy. Its Hungary, Greece, Spain etc. Even the French are starting to turn from the EU.
Jeez what a confusion!Basically i get the idea there is a long term game plan to leave the EU by inches. Bring in a currency alongside the Euro, bring in a flat tax which will also mean they can close a lot of the present loopholes by which italians avoid taxes and if that all pans out and their economy remains stable they can then hold a referendum/election based on leaving the EU.
This whole situation is why I voted Brexit in the first place. The EU and Euro are mortally wounded and limping along to their death. The UK if it remains part of or tied to the EU economically is at just as much risk as all the other countries in the EU when it all comes crashing down.
If we are outside the EU and have built our own FTA or even tarrifed agreements with other countries independently we will be much better off when the EU and Euro goes belly up.
Its not just Italy. Its Hungary, Greece, Spain etc. Even the French are starting to turn from the EU.
Preface: I'm completely against the odd alliance that has been forced by the President of the Republic to form a government instead of having another round of elections.
There are no plans to leave the Euro or to establish a parallel currency. Likewise, the 250bn debt write-off is part of a leaked document produced to troll the press. Silly, but that's the way it is.
The idea of a double currency is the first thing that, not only would scare international investors, but would also scare Italians. With a choice between a currency with no inflation and one that straight away suffers a 30% depreciation and successive constant inflation, which one do you think Italians would choose? Furthermore, 68% of public debt is domestically owned, so if they ever decided to write off a portion of it, it would be interesting how they would manage the process....
As i explained a million times in this thread and a couple of others, there is no chance, i repeat, NO chance that voters will be called to cast a preference on an Italexit-type referendum. It is constitutionally forbidden, and even this alliance hasn't got the necessary majority to change the constitution.
There is no plan to leave the EU or Euro inch by inch or foot by foot, the idea is to initiate some reforms that could easily have been supported and promoted by the UK plus Italy and all the other countries you mentioned.
Enricogto said:
Jeez what a confusion!
Preface: I'm completely against the odd alliance that has been forced by the President of the Republic to form a government instead of having another round of elections.
There are no plans to leave the Euro or to establish a parallel currency. Likewise, the 250bn debt write-off is part of a leaked document produced to troll the press. Silly, but that's the way it is.
The idea of a double currency is the first thing that, not only would scare international investors, but would also scare Italians. With a choice between a currency with no inflation and one that straight away suffers a 30% depreciation and successive constant inflation, which one do you think Italians would choose? Furthermore, 68% of public debt is domestically owned, so if they ever decided to write off a portion of it, it would be interesting how they would manage the process....
As i explained a million times in this thread and a couple of others, there is no chance, i repeat, NO chance that voters will be called to cast a preference on an Italexit-type referendum. It is constitutionally forbidden, and even this alliance hasn't got the necessary majority to change the constitution.
There is no plan to leave the EU or Euro inch by inch or foot by foot, the idea is to initiate some reforms that could easily have been supported and promoted by the UK plus Italy and all the other countries you mentioned.
The UK did propose significant reforms prior to the referendum. No one in the EU wanted to listen. Which is part of the reason for the Brexit vote... The UK recognized that the EU will NEVER listen. Preface: I'm completely against the odd alliance that has been forced by the President of the Republic to form a government instead of having another round of elections.
There are no plans to leave the Euro or to establish a parallel currency. Likewise, the 250bn debt write-off is part of a leaked document produced to troll the press. Silly, but that's the way it is.
The idea of a double currency is the first thing that, not only would scare international investors, but would also scare Italians. With a choice between a currency with no inflation and one that straight away suffers a 30% depreciation and successive constant inflation, which one do you think Italians would choose? Furthermore, 68% of public debt is domestically owned, so if they ever decided to write off a portion of it, it would be interesting how they would manage the process....
As i explained a million times in this thread and a couple of others, there is no chance, i repeat, NO chance that voters will be called to cast a preference on an Italexit-type referendum. It is constitutionally forbidden, and even this alliance hasn't got the necessary majority to change the constitution.
There is no plan to leave the EU or Euro inch by inch or foot by foot, the idea is to initiate some reforms that could easily have been supported and promoted by the UK plus Italy and all the other countries you mentioned.
I agree with most of what you say, and yes I recall your posts on the constitutional and legal process that Italy would need to even get to a referendum. I actually don't think it is Italy that will wreck the Euro. (Though the Euro has wrecked Italy in some ways)
The EU propaganda machine is in full effect in Italy, and if they need to, they will force another vote and another technocrat, as they have already done before.
Enricogto said:
There is no plan to leave the EU or Euro inch by inch or foot by foot, the idea is to initiate some reforms that could easily have been supported and promoted by the UK plus Italy and all the other countries you mentioned.
Except the EU seems to have morphed into the sort of behemoth that no nation, save possibly Germany, feels they can ever have any meaningful negotiation with.As for your other comments, very interesting - thank you.
Gargamel said:
The EU propaganda machine is in full effect in Italy, and if they need to, they will force another vote and another technocrat, as they have already done before.
Who is this EU man or woman who forced another vote? I have looked on the EU web site and cannot see a picture. Also how did they force a vote? As far as I am aware they do not have any political position in any EU country.Mrr T said:
Who is this EU man or woman who forced another vote? I have looked on the EU web site and cannot see a picture. Also how did they force a vote? As far as I am aware they do not have any political position in any EU country.
Which simply demonstrates how little awareness you have. jsf said:
The markets will force the Euro collapse when it happens. The politicians don't have the balls to make the decision, the markets don't have that problem.
Unfortunately because of all the can kicking which continues to build the problem, when it goes pop it will be a bloodbath.
That is sort of my reading on it or it will take one of the troubled states to either default on their debts like Itay for example or to simply decide to leave regardless of rules which would cause serious market repercussions whether they are "allowed" to or not which in turn will cause a huge knock on to the markets which will snowball.Unfortunately because of all the can kicking which continues to build the problem, when it goes pop it will be a bloodbath.
At the moment its a question of when not if.
Mrr T said:
Who is this EU man or woman who forced another vote? I have looked on the EU web site and cannot see a picture. Also how did they force a vote? As far as I am aware they do not have any political position in any EU country.
Italians already had Mario Monte foisted on them by them EU with threats that they would withhold debt payments if they went for elections following Berlusconi resigning.Monte appointed a cabinet with almost no actual politicians in it (all Eu technocrats)
At the next actual election, he came 4th.
frankenstein12 said:
jsf said:
The markets will force the Euro collapse when it happens. The politicians don't have the balls to make the decision, the markets don't have that problem.
Unfortunately because of all the can kicking which continues to build the problem, when it goes pop it will be a bloodbath.
That is sort of my reading on it or it will take one of the troubled states to either default on their debts like Itay for example or to simply decide to leave regardless of rules which would cause serious market repercussions whether they are "allowed" to or not which in turn will cause a huge knock on to the markets which will snowball.Unfortunately because of all the can kicking which continues to build the problem, when it goes pop it will be a bloodbath.
At the moment its a question of when not if.
Spring 2011 - Easter/Spring 2012 chaps. The Euro did collapse under market pressure. The peg was introduced in autumn 2011and the SNB bailed out the Euro to *huge* sums in spring 2012. The SNB "managed" the black hole in their balance sheet with the Euros out the back door traded against other currencies.
The Euro currently is Euro Mk2. The end arrived, it collapsed, new currency since then funded by the Swiss who slowly passed it all across to the ECB who slowly nationalised it across Europe.
Gargamel said:
Italians already had Mario Monte foisted on them by them EU with threats that they would withhold debt payments if they went for elections following Berlusconi resigning.
Monte appointed a cabinet with almost no actual politicians in it (all Eu technocrats)
At the next actual election, he came 4th.
I watch C4 and BBC news frequently, but this week, I do not remember seeing anything about the Italian equivalent of the Monster Raving Loony Party forming a coalition government.Monte appointed a cabinet with almost no actual politicians in it (all Eu technocrats)
At the next actual election, he came 4th.
I presume that there is still a lot of goodwill towards the European experiment.
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