War with Russia
Discussion
10 Pence Short said:
There'll be no war between Russia and the West. What's at stake isn't worth it.
Russia's point of view appears to be defending its own interests and keeping order, whilst ensuring the government in place looks East before West. I doubt they're interested in trying to wholesale re-assimilate Ukraine into Russia.
Storm in a teacup.
This seems the most likely outcome.Russia's point of view appears to be defending its own interests and keeping order, whilst ensuring the government in place looks East before West. I doubt they're interested in trying to wholesale re-assimilate Ukraine into Russia.
Storm in a teacup.
Mermaid said:
10 Pence Short said:
There'll be no war between Russia and the West. What's at stake isn't worth it.
Russia's point of view appears to be defending its own interests and keeping order, whilst ensuring the government in place looks East before West. I doubt they're interested in trying to wholesale re-assimilate Ukraine into Russia.
Storm in a teacup.
This seems the most likely outcome.Russia's point of view appears to be defending its own interests and keeping order, whilst ensuring the government in place looks East before West. I doubt they're interested in trying to wholesale re-assimilate Ukraine into Russia.
Storm in a teacup.
Mermaid said:
10 Pence Short said:
There'll be no war between Russia and the West. What's at stake isn't worth it.
Russia's point of view appears to be defending its own interests and keeping order, whilst ensuring the government in place looks East before West. I doubt they're interested in trying to wholesale re-assimilate Ukraine into Russia.
Storm in a teacup.
This seems the most likely outcome.Russia's point of view appears to be defending its own interests and keeping order, whilst ensuring the government in place looks East before West. I doubt they're interested in trying to wholesale re-assimilate Ukraine into Russia.
Storm in a teacup.
article said:
We didn't think Putin would do this. Why, exactly? This has often puzzled me about Western analysis of Russia. It is often predicated on wholly Western logic: surely, Russia won't invade [Georgia, Ukraine, whoever's next] because war is costly and the Russian economy isn't doing well and surely Putin doesn't want another hit to an already weak ruble; because Russia doesn't need to conquer Crimea if Crimea is going to secede on its own; Russia will not want to risk the geopolitical isolation, and "what's really in it for Russia?"—stop. Russia, or, more accurately, Putin, sees the world according to his own logic, and the logic goes like this: it is better to be feared than loved, it is better to be overly strong than to risk appearing weak, and Russia was, is, and will be an empire with an eternal appetite for expansion. And it will gather whatever spurious reasons it needs to insulate itself territorially from what it still perceives to be a large and growing NATO threat. Trying to harness Russia with our own logic just makes us miss Putin's next steps.
Do they have a point or not?never heard of that website and it's hardly objective journalism. how exactly did russia create the current situation in the ukraine?
i very much doubt russia wants war, they have too much to lose and very little to gain. they've been doing a lot recently to improve their own economical and political position and would not want to have that ruined. what power they have over the ukraine [energy supply] remains whether a pro russian element is in power or not. all putin is doing is casting a shadow to remind the ukraine of russia's power and reach should the current situation escalate into an anti-russia movement and spill across his borders.
i very much doubt russia wants war, they have too much to lose and very little to gain. they've been doing a lot recently to improve their own economical and political position and would not want to have that ruined. what power they have over the ukraine [energy supply] remains whether a pro russian element is in power or not. all putin is doing is casting a shadow to remind the ukraine of russia's power and reach should the current situation escalate into an anti-russia movement and spill across his borders.
Simple solution. Play Russia at its own game.
Every eu nation and the us sends a nominal force (say 200) troops to protect its people (there must be at least one brit, pole, german etc in the Ukraine).
Either a solution is reached or putin is crazy enough to start ww3; if he is then it will happen anyway at some point.
Every eu nation and the us sends a nominal force (say 200) troops to protect its people (there must be at least one brit, pole, german etc in the Ukraine).
Either a solution is reached or putin is crazy enough to start ww3; if he is then it will happen anyway at some point.
neilr said:
Ozzie Osmond said:
Given that UK feels entitled to a chunk of Argentina
Is this joke or are you really that uninformed?Crimea, in contrast, is a mere 2,250 miles from London if you feel the need "save" the locals in the name of Western democracy. Good luck with that one.
Ozzie Osmond said:
neilr said:
Ozzie Osmond said:
Given that UK feels entitled to a chunk of Argentina
Is this joke or are you really that uninformed?Crimea, in contrast, is a mere 2,250 miles from London if you feel the need "save" the locals in the name of Western democracy. Good luck with that one.
Ozzie Osmond said:
neilr said:
Ozzie Osmond said:
Given that UK feels entitled to a chunk of Argentina
Is this joke or are you really that uninformed?Crimea, in contrast, is a mere 2,250 miles from London if you feel the need "save" the locals in the name of Western democracy. Good luck with that one.
Argentia can't just walk in a claim the islands because they are nearer. They have no more claim over it than Spain.
The only people who have the right to change that are the people who live there.
Edited by 98elise on Sunday 2nd March 14:07
vonuber said:
Simple solution. Play Russia at its own game. Every eu nation and the us sends a nominal force (say 200) troops to protect its people (there must be at least one brit, pole, german etc in the Ukraine).
Far more likely US will just ramp up its highly controversial armaments in Turkey. You will recall Mr Putin has mates next door in Syria. This ding-dong has been going on since the Cuban missile crisis of 1962 - which was actually "the Cuban and Turkish missile crisis". USSR pulled out of Cuba and USA (quietly) pulled out of Turkey.Since then there are still no Russian missiles on Cuba but quite a few American ones in Turkey. American troops as well. All "defensive" of course.
The more I read the more it feels like there's going to be trouble ahead. Started by this:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9142182/putins...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandr_Dugin
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2014/mar/...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4steSLHoUY
A lot of the latest Russian's behaviours became quite more clear. "National Bolshevism" huh, just what the world needed.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9142182/putins...
Spectator article said:
Now, after two decades in the economic basket, Russia is decisively back as an ideological force in the world — this time as a champion of conservative values. In his annual state of the nation speech to Russia’s parliament in December, Vladimir Putin assured conservatives around the world that Russia was ready and willing to stand up for ‘family values’ against a tide of liberal, western, pro-gay propaganda ‘that asks us to accept without question the equality of good and evil’. Russia, he promised, will ‘defend traditional values that have made up the spiritual and moral foundation of civilisation in every nation for thousands of years’. Crucially, Putin made it clear that his message was directed not only at Russians — who have already been protected from ‘promotion of non-traditional relationships’ by recent legislation — but for ‘more and more people across the world who support our position’.
Then went digging a little and found the ideologue behind the current russian politics, a certain Mr. Aleksandr Dugin.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandr_Dugin
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2014/mar/...
article said:
A part of hard-line nationalist NBP members, supported by Dugin, split off to form the more right-wing, anti-liberal, anti-left, anti-Kasparov aggressive nationalist organization, National Bolshevik Front. After breaking with Limonov, he became close to Yevgeny Primakov and later to Vladimir Putin's circle.
(...)
Before war broke out between Russia and Georgia in 2008, Dugin visited South Ossetia and predicted, "Our troops will occupy the Georgian capital Tbilisi, the entire country, and perhaps even Ukraine and the Crimean Peninsula, which is historically part of Russia, anyway."[15] Afterwards he said Russia should "not stop at liberating South Ossetia but should move further," and "we have to do something similar in Ukraine."
His major work http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopol... has some 'interesting ideas':(...)
Before war broke out between Russia and Georgia in 2008, Dugin visited South Ossetia and predicted, "Our troops will occupy the Georgian capital Tbilisi, the entire country, and perhaps even Ukraine and the Crimean Peninsula, which is historically part of Russia, anyway."[15] Afterwards he said Russia should "not stop at liberating South Ossetia but should move further," and "we have to do something similar in Ukraine."
article said:
The book has had a large influence within the Russian military, police, and statist foreign policy elites[1] and is used as a textbook in the General Staff Academy of Russian military.[1][1]
(...)
The book declares that "the battle for the world rule of [ethnic] Russians" has not ended and Russia remains "the staging area of a new anti-bourgeois, anti-American revolution." The Eurasian Empire will be constructed "on the fundamental principle of the common enemy: the rejection of Atlanticism, strategic control of the USA, and the refusal to allow liberal values to dominate us."[1]
Military operations play relatively little role. The textbook believes in a sophisticated program of subversion, destabilization, and disinformation spearheaded by the Russian special services. The operations should be assisted by a tough, hard-headed utilization of Russia's gas, oil, and natural resources to bully and pressure other countries.[1] The book states that "the maximum task [of the future] is the 'Finlandization’ of all of Europe".[1]
In Europe:
You can also hear the basket case himself explaining his politics:(...)
The book declares that "the battle for the world rule of [ethnic] Russians" has not ended and Russia remains "the staging area of a new anti-bourgeois, anti-American revolution." The Eurasian Empire will be constructed "on the fundamental principle of the common enemy: the rejection of Atlanticism, strategic control of the USA, and the refusal to allow liberal values to dominate us."[1]
Military operations play relatively little role. The textbook believes in a sophisticated program of subversion, destabilization, and disinformation spearheaded by the Russian special services. The operations should be assisted by a tough, hard-headed utilization of Russia's gas, oil, and natural resources to bully and pressure other countries.[1] The book states that "the maximum task [of the future] is the 'Finlandization’ of all of Europe".[1]
In Europe:
- Germany should be offered the de facto political dominance over most Protestant and Catholic states located within Central and Eastern Europe. Kaliningrad oblast could be given back to Germany. The book uses the term a "Moscow-Berlin axis".[1]
- France should be encouraged to form a "Franco-German bloc" with Germany. Both countries have a "firm anti-Atlanticist tradition".[1]
- United Kingdom should be cut off from Europe.[1]
- Finland should be absorbed into Russia. Southern Finland will be combined with the Republic of Karelia and northern Finland will be "donated to Murmansk Oblast".[1]
- Estonia should be given to Germany's sphere of influence.[1]
- Latvia and Lithuania should be given a "special status" in the Eurasian-Russian sphere.[1]
- Poland should be granted a "special status" in the Eurasian sphere.[1]
- Romania, Macedonia, "Serbian Bosnia" and Greece - "orthodox collectivist East" - will unite with the "Moscow the Third Rome" and reject the "rational-individualistic West".[1]
- Ukraine should be annexed by Russia because "Ukraine as an independent state with certain territorial ambitions represents an enormous danger for all of Eurasia and, without resolving the Ukrainian problem, it is in general senseless to speak about continental politics". Ukraine should not be allowed to remain independent, unless it is sanitary cordon, which would be inadmissible.[1]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4steSLHoUY
A lot of the latest Russian's behaviours became quite more clear. "National Bolshevism" huh, just what the world needed.
raftom said:
The more I read the more it feels like there's going to be trouble ahead. Started by this:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9142182/putins...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandr_Dugin
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2014/mar/...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4steSLHoUY
A lot of the latest Russian's behaviours became quite more clear. "National Bolshevism" huh, just what the world needed.
Terrifying if even 50% true..http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9142182/putins...
Spectator article said:
Now, after two decades in the economic basket, Russia is decisively back as an ideological force in the world — this time as a champion of conservative values. In his annual state of the nation speech to Russia’s parliament in December, Vladimir Putin assured conservatives around the world that Russia was ready and willing to stand up for ‘family values’ against a tide of liberal, western, pro-gay propaganda ‘that asks us to accept without question the equality of good and evil’. Russia, he promised, will ‘defend traditional values that have made up the spiritual and moral foundation of civilisation in every nation for thousands of years’. Crucially, Putin made it clear that his message was directed not only at Russians — who have already been protected from ‘promotion of non-traditional relationships’ by recent legislation — but for ‘more and more people across the world who support our position’.
Then went digging a little and found the ideologue behind the current russian politics, a certain Mr. Aleksandr Dugin.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandr_Dugin
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2014/mar/...
article said:
A part of hard-line nationalist NBP members, supported by Dugin, split off to form the more right-wing, anti-liberal, anti-left, anti-Kasparov aggressive nationalist organization, National Bolshevik Front. After breaking with Limonov, he became close to Yevgeny Primakov and later to Vladimir Putin's circle.
(...)
Before war broke out between Russia and Georgia in 2008, Dugin visited South Ossetia and predicted, "Our troops will occupy the Georgian capital Tbilisi, the entire country, and perhaps even Ukraine and the Crimean Peninsula, which is historically part of Russia, anyway."[15] Afterwards he said Russia should "not stop at liberating South Ossetia but should move further," and "we have to do something similar in Ukraine."
His major work http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopol... has some 'interesting ideas':(...)
Before war broke out between Russia and Georgia in 2008, Dugin visited South Ossetia and predicted, "Our troops will occupy the Georgian capital Tbilisi, the entire country, and perhaps even Ukraine and the Crimean Peninsula, which is historically part of Russia, anyway."[15] Afterwards he said Russia should "not stop at liberating South Ossetia but should move further," and "we have to do something similar in Ukraine."
article said:
The book has had a large influence within the Russian military, police, and statist foreign policy elites[1] and is used as a textbook in the General Staff Academy of Russian military.[1][1]
(...)
The book declares that "the battle for the world rule of [ethnic] Russians" has not ended and Russia remains "the staging area of a new anti-bourgeois, anti-American revolution." The Eurasian Empire will be constructed "on the fundamental principle of the common enemy: the rejection of Atlanticism, strategic control of the USA, and the refusal to allow liberal values to dominate us."[1]
Military operations play relatively little role. The textbook believes in a sophisticated program of subversion, destabilization, and disinformation spearheaded by the Russian special services. The operations should be assisted by a tough, hard-headed utilization of Russia's gas, oil, and natural resources to bully and pressure other countries.[1] The book states that "the maximum task [of the future] is the 'Finlandization’ of all of Europe".[1]
In Europe:
You can also hear the basket case himself explaining his politics:(...)
The book declares that "the battle for the world rule of [ethnic] Russians" has not ended and Russia remains "the staging area of a new anti-bourgeois, anti-American revolution." The Eurasian Empire will be constructed "on the fundamental principle of the common enemy: the rejection of Atlanticism, strategic control of the USA, and the refusal to allow liberal values to dominate us."[1]
Military operations play relatively little role. The textbook believes in a sophisticated program of subversion, destabilization, and disinformation spearheaded by the Russian special services. The operations should be assisted by a tough, hard-headed utilization of Russia's gas, oil, and natural resources to bully and pressure other countries.[1] The book states that "the maximum task [of the future] is the 'Finlandization’ of all of Europe".[1]
In Europe:
- Germany should be offered the de facto political dominance over most Protestant and Catholic states located within Central and Eastern Europe. Kaliningrad oblast could be given back to Germany. The book uses the term a "Moscow-Berlin axis".[1]
- France should be encouraged to form a "Franco-German bloc" with Germany. Both countries have a "firm anti-Atlanticist tradition".[1]
- United Kingdom should be cut off from Europe.[1]
- Finland should be absorbed into Russia. Southern Finland will be combined with the Republic of Karelia and northern Finland will be "donated to Murmansk Oblast".[1]
- Estonia should be given to Germany's sphere of influence.[1]
- Latvia and Lithuania should be given a "special status" in the Eurasian-Russian sphere.[1]
- Poland should be granted a "special status" in the Eurasian sphere.[1]
- Romania, Macedonia, "Serbian Bosnia" and Greece - "orthodox collectivist East" - will unite with the "Moscow the Third Rome" and reject the "rational-individualistic West".[1]
- Ukraine should be annexed by Russia because "Ukraine as an independent state with certain territorial ambitions represents an enormous danger for all of Eurasia and, without resolving the Ukrainian problem, it is in general senseless to speak about continental politics". Ukraine should not be allowed to remain independent, unless it is sanitary cordon, which would be inadmissible.[1]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4steSLHoUY
A lot of the latest Russian's behaviours became quite more clear. "National Bolshevism" huh, just what the world needed.
Asterix said:
That was a lease agreement. When the lease ran out, we handed it back.
That's what apologists like to believe, but since when could one country "sell" a bit of its population to another without asking them? And in any event, the lease excuse only covers a small part of what was handed over.Reality says that many of the little "independent" countries of the last 50 years have utterly failed. The next phase of the global game is going to be the major powers grabbing territory and establishing blocs again.
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