War with Russia

Author
Discussion

Mermaid

21,492 posts

170 months

Sunday 2nd March 2014
quotequote all
Ozzie Osmond said:
vonuber said:
Simple solution. Play Russia at its own game. Every eu nation and the us sends a nominal force (say 200) troops to protect its people (there must be at least one brit, pole, german etc in the Ukraine).
Far more likely US will just ramp up its highly controversial armaments in Turkey. You will recall Mr Putin has mates next door in Syria. This ding-dong has been going on since the Cuban missile crisis of 1962 - which was actually "the Cuban and Turkish missile crisis". USSR pulled out of Cuba and USA (quietly) pulled out of Turkey.

Since then there are still no Russian missiles on Cuba but quite a few American ones in Turkey. American troops as well. All "defensive" of course.
Did the cold war ever end?

s2art

18,937 posts

252 months

Sunday 2nd March 2014
quotequote all
Ozzie Osmond said:
Asterix said:
That was a lease agreement. When the lease ran out, we handed it back.
That's what apologists like to believe, but since when could one country "sell" a bit of its population to another without asking them? And in any event, the lease excuse only covers a small part of what was handed over.

Reality says that many of the little "independent" countries of the last 50 years have utterly failed. The next phase of the global game is going to be the major powers grabbing territory and establishing blocs again.
Actually China did 'sell' the island of Hong Kong to the UK. Under extreme duress. We gave it (the island) back because we couldnt retain it without the leased territories, it just wouldnt be viable or defendable.

neilr

1,512 posts

262 months

Sunday 2nd March 2014
quotequote all
Ozzie Osmond said:
neilr said:
Ozzie Osmond said:
Given that UK feels entitled to a chunk of Argentina
Is this joke or are you really that uninformed?
You may not have noticed but the Falklands are off the coast of Argentina and 8,000 miles from London. Better ask Santa for an atlas next Xmas because it's probably not covered by your UK satnav.

Crimea, in contrast, is a mere 2,250 miles from London if you feel the need "save" the locals in the name of Western democracy. Good luck with that one.
Your condescension is hugely misplaced. Others have replied to this so I needn't contimue beyond this reply.

As for the current situation in Russia, unless (as has bee already said) the West decides to make guarantees to Ukraine/Crimea (which it probably won't) then it's unlikely to get out of control. (on a European scale)


Veeayt

3,139 posts

204 months

Sunday 2nd March 2014
quotequote all
Poland & allies. 1939. Same scenario.

Asterix

24,438 posts

227 months

Sunday 2nd March 2014
quotequote all
neilr said:
Ozzie Osmond said:
neilr said:
Ozzie Osmond said:
Given that UK feels entitled to a chunk of Argentina
Is this joke or are you really that uninformed?
You may not have noticed but the Falklands are off the coast of Argentina and 8,000 miles from London. Better ask Santa for an atlas next Xmas because it's probably not covered by your UK satnav.

Crimea, in contrast, is a mere 2,250 miles from London if you feel the need "save" the locals in the name of Western democracy. Good luck with that one.
Your condescension is hugely misplaced. Others have replied to this so I needn't contimue beyond this reply.

As for the current situation in Russia, unless (as has bee already said) the West decides to make guarantees to Ukraine/Crimea (which it probably won't) then it's unlikely to get out of control. (on a European scale)
What about the Budapest agreement thingy signed in the 90's? If its fully binding, even though Russia has obviously ripped up their copy, then if the West don't act, it will set a precedent for all the other treaties in place.

Also - question - this morning Sky kept mentioning that Russia was going to protect their interests in Crimea and East Ukraine - I know the Crimean 'interests'. What to they have in East Ukraine?

Finlandia

7,803 posts

230 months

Sunday 2nd March 2014
quotequote all
Send in some pissed off Finnish farmers, they did an alright job last time.

In all seriousness, West can't afford a war with Russia, for economic reasons as well as for fear of ending the humanity.

Wills2

22,666 posts

174 months

Sunday 2nd March 2014
quotequote all
Veeayt said:
Poland & allies. 1939. Same scenario.
Sudetenland rings a louder bell, that's why there will be lots of jaw from the EU but no guarantees, poor buggers are on their own.

fido

16,752 posts

254 months

Sunday 2nd March 2014
quotequote all
Asterix said:
What about the Budapest agreement thingy signed in the 90's? If its fully binding, even though Russia has obviously ripped up their copy, then if the West don't act, it will set a precedent for all the other treaties in place.
Isn't that more akin to a convenant that a treaty? In any case, the Russian do not have to annex it as such, and do it from the inside, as appears to be happening with the newly elected Crimean Mayor who just happens to be good chums with Putin.

davepoth

29,395 posts

198 months

Sunday 2nd March 2014
quotequote all
I think Ukraine will back down and cede the Crimea. They can't fight a war, let alone win one against Russia, and it's going to be for a region whose demographic makeup suggests it wants to be part of Russia anyway.

storminnorman

2,357 posts

151 months

Sunday 2nd March 2014
quotequote all
Veeayt said:
Poland & allies. 1939. Same scenario.
I'm sorry, but too many people are reading into the whole 'Putin protecting Russians in other countries' and equating it with the above.
There's much more at play here, it's much, much more complex than that. I don't even know the half of it and I've been reading up solidly all weekend.
The Austrian Landscape Artist was a true dictator, with much more individual power than Putin has. Do you think all those Russian oligarchs and plutocrats spend their time counting caviar eggs?

It's natural for us to draw parallels - humans seem to be really good at spotting patterns. History does indeed repeat itself at times. But it's never exactly the same, is it? So, one correlation does not necessarily mean the scenario is the same.

TheExcession

11,669 posts

249 months

Sunday 2nd March 2014
quotequote all
Finlandia said:
In all seriousness, West can't afford a war with Russia, for economic reasons as well as for fear of ending the humanity.
I agree - I just don't think we can't avoid it based upon some Armageddon fear of ending humanity, I think it will boil down to an energy issue - Russia will just threaten to turn of the gas.

Allegedly Russia currently supplies 60% of the Ukraine's energy and supplies 25% of the 'European' market - VIA UKRAINE!!!

Could you cope with losing 25% of your heating and electricity? st even an eight hour power cut due to the recent storms was a real pain here.

st even the France/Netherland interconnects are running at near full capacity at the moment.

Those windmills don't do fk all to help this.

Even in Germany now 'Big Coal' is threatening to bulldoze villages in order to mine brown coal after Merkel decided to close the nuclear plants.

This whole affair is not as simple as a bunch of people in Ukraine and Crimea disagreeing on what language their Doctor's prescriptions should be written in.

Putin wants an end to 'Western style thought/way of life' - he loathes it.

Anyone ever watch that film "Devil's Double" about Uday Hussein son of the former Saddam Hussein? Putin is little better.

And of course let us not forget the even though the Rubel is at an all time low - the just finished the Winter Olympics - he and all his cronies are hardly short of a bob or two.

Jandywa

1,058 posts

150 months

Sunday 2nd March 2014
quotequote all
Ozzie Osmond said:
You may not have noticed but the Falklands are off the coast of Argentina and 8,000 miles from London. Better ask Santa for an atlas next Xmas because it's probably not covered by your UK satnav.

Crimea, in contrast, is a mere 2,250 miles from London if you feel the need "save" the locals in the name of Western democracy. Good luck with that one.
rofl

dudleybloke

19,717 posts

185 months

storminnorman

2,357 posts

151 months

Sunday 2nd March 2014
quotequote all
dudleybloke said:
Good site, thanks

Veeayt

3,139 posts

204 months

Sunday 2nd March 2014
quotequote all
storminnorman said:
I'm sorry, but too many people are reading into the whole 'Putin protecting Russians in other countries' and equating it with the above.
There's much more at play here, it's much, much more complex than that. I don't even know the half of it and I've been reading up solidly all weekend.
The Austrian Landscape Artist was a true dictator, with much more individual power than Putin has. Do you think all those Russian oligarchs and plutocrats spend their time counting caviar eggs?

It's natural for us to draw parallels - humans seem to be really good at spotting patterns. History does indeed repeat itself at times. But it's never exactly the same, is it? So, one correlation does not necessarily mean the scenario is the same.
Look. I'm here, in the Ukraine, working for US NBC, a Kazakh by passport, nobody by any means. I don't mean you're completely wrong, not even close to that, but here's my poor perspective. Some wise sage said that Russia's appetite for expansion will never end, and I see it right here. What I wanted to say is that no matter who's going to win this , it's better to be prepared for all the others. With all respect, you are definitely wrong about the individual power of Putin - the Russians may not believe in him, but they do believe that Russia has been established as a Third Rome - to divide and conquer, and they do believe that Ukraine is in their hands. Heard anything about propaganda? And one can find it in any random Russian even before it gets to football and women. Something you Brits have felt not that long ago.
Remember, USSR was in much, much worse economical state than now in the beginning of WW2, and what they got from it is another 30 years of prosperity.
What I say is that as long as European politicians remain tolerant (they do not understand russian politics at all), they giving a birth to a new fuhrer.

davepoth

29,395 posts

198 months

Sunday 2nd March 2014
quotequote all
Veeayt said:
storminnorman said:
I'm sorry, but too many people are reading into the whole 'Putin protecting Russians in other countries' and equating it with the above.
There's much more at play here, it's much, much more complex than that. I don't even know the half of it and I've been reading up solidly all weekend.
The Austrian Landscape Artist was a true dictator, with much more individual power than Putin has. Do you think all those Russian oligarchs and plutocrats spend their time counting caviar eggs?

It's natural for us to draw parallels - humans seem to be really good at spotting patterns. History does indeed repeat itself at times. But it's never exactly the same, is it? So, one correlation does not necessarily mean the scenario is the same.
Look. I'm here, in the Ukraine, working for US NBC, a Kazakh by passport, nobody by any means. I don't mean you're completely wrong, not even close to that, but here's my poor perspective. Some wise sage said that Russia's appetite for expansion will never end, and I see it right here. What I wanted to say is that no matter who's going to win this , it's better to be prepared for all the others. With all respect, you are definitely wrong about the individual power of Putin - the Russians may not believe in him, but they do believe that Russia has been established as a Third Rome - to divide and conquer, and they do believe that Ukraine is in their hands. Heard anything about propaganda? And one can find it in any random Russian even before it gets to football and women. Something you Brits have felt not that long ago.
Remember, USSR was in much, much worse economical state than now in the beginning of WW2, and what they got from it is another 30 years of prosperity.
What I say is that as long as European politicians remain tolerant (they do not understand russian politics at all), they giving a birth to a new fuhrer.
Any country that sees any positive in an offensive war is extremely dangerous. That it's a nation so big and powerful as Russia is mildly terrifying.

Murph7355

37,648 posts

255 months

Sunday 2nd March 2014
quotequote all
Ozzie Osmond said:
That's what apologists like to believe, but since when could one country "sell" a bit of its population to another without asking them? And in any event, the lease excuse only covers a small part of what was handed over.

Reality says that many of the little "independent" countries of the last 50 years have utterly failed. The next phase of the global game is going to be the major powers grabbing territory and establishing blocs again.
You have the basis of a stand up routine in your posts on this thread.

DoubleSix

11,691 posts

175 months

Sunday 2nd March 2014
quotequote all
vonuber said:
Simple solution. Play Russia at its own game.
Every eu nation and the us sends a nominal force (say 200) troops to protect its people (there must be at least one brit, pole, german etc in the Ukraine).
Either a solution is reached or putin is crazy enough to start ww3; if he is then it will happen anyway at some point.
The Russians are the best in the world at Chess.

storminnorman

2,357 posts

151 months

Sunday 2nd March 2014
quotequote all
Veeayt said:
storminnorman said:
I'm sorry, but too many people are reading into the whole 'Putin protecting Russians in other countries' and equating it with the above.
There's much more at play here, it's much, much more complex than that. I don't even know the half of it and I've been reading up solidly all weekend.
The Austrian Landscape Artist was a true dictator, with much more individual power than Putin has. Do you think all those Russian oligarchs and plutocrats spend their time counting caviar eggs?

It's natural for us to draw parallels - humans seem to be really good at spotting patterns. History does indeed repeat itself at times. But it's never exactly the same, is it? So, one correlation does not necessarily mean the scenario is the same.
Look. I'm here, in the Ukraine, working for US NBC, a Kazakh by passport, nobody by any means. I don't mean you're completely wrong, not even close to that, but here's my poor perspective. Some wise sage said that Russia's appetite for expansion will never end, and I see it right here. What I wanted to say is that no matter who's going to win this , it's better to be prepared for all the others. With all respect, you are definitely wrong about the individual power of Putin - the Russians may not believe in him, but they do believe that Russia has been established as a Third Rome - to divide and conquer, and they do believe that Ukraine is in their hands. Heard anything about propaganda? And one can find it in any random Russian even before it gets to football and women. Something you Brits have felt not that long ago.
Remember, USSR was in much, much worse economical state than now in the beginning of WW2, and what they got from it is another 30 years of prosperity.
What I say is that as long as European politicians remain tolerant (they do not understand russian politics at all), they giving a birth to a new fuhrer.
I would gladly admit that you seem to have a much more qualified view on events than I do.
As someone with an interest in both history and current affairs, I do want to reject the parallel with 1939 because of the consequences it implies - all out war. I think such a notion is incredibly unrealistic in modern times as superpowers prefer their proxy states and puppet governments. The existence of the Nuclear deterrence also plays a big part in this. What can Europe do if all out war is suicide?

You are right with regards to propaganda - while the west seems to poke fun at Putin's 'manly' image, I can imagine that it does wonders for him at home and in that respect Putin's individual power is indeed strong.

This is just my personal interest really. I welcome your perspective on events, especially if you're on the ground in Ukraine.

Veeayt

3,139 posts

204 months

Sunday 2nd March 2014
quotequote all
DoubleSix said:
The Russians are the best in the world at Chess.
Except all of their latest champions are Jews biggrin