Meanwhile in Turkey

Author
Discussion

Bodo

12,375 posts

266 months

Saturday 5th March 2016
quotequote all
Turkey is still in the middle ages, despite having many Turks venturing abroad and back. Greece is Europe's Hinterland and Turkey is Greece's Hinterland.

BlackLabel

13,251 posts

123 months

Friday 18th March 2016
quotequote all
President Erdogan says freedom and democracy have 'no value' in Turkey amid arrests and military crackdown

"On Monday, the President had vowed to extend the legal definition of “terrorists” to include MPs, activists and journalists."

Edited by BlackLabel on Friday 18th March 18:39

discusdave

412 posts

193 months

Friday 18th March 2016
quotequote all
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has clamed that democracy, freedom and the rule of law have no value any longer.

The Turkish leader also added that those who don’t support the Turkish government are Turkey’s “enemies.”

“Democracy, freedom and the rule of law…For us, these words have absolutely no value any longer. Those who stand on our side in the fight against terrorism are our friend. Those on the opposite side are our enemy,” Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Mar.16, According to Erdogan, Turkey is going to deploy more forces to crack down a Kurdish insurgency in the country’s south east

Ankara describes all Kurdish militia which spread widely throughout Syria and Iraq as a direct national threat. Erdogan repeated Turkey will strike Kurds everywhere.

“Wherever you run, our soldiers, police and village guards will find you there and do what is necessary,” Erdogan said, referring to Kurdish militants.

He also called to “swiftly” end immunity from prosecution for pro-Kurdish politicians.




Elroy Blue

8,687 posts

192 months

Friday 18th March 2016
quotequote all
It's staggering that Turkey's descent into dictatorship is completely ignored by the west. 'Our' Politicians should hang their heads in shame. It's straight out of House of Cards

discusdave

412 posts

193 months

Friday 18th March 2016
quotequote all
The order to begin the withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria, which occurred wholly unexpectedly and even as these forces were engaged in a successful offensive against Islamist forces naturally requires a closer look. There are several possible mutually complementary explanations as to what had happened, though some are more plausible than others.

Khamsin

As has been predicted by many analysts already in September, Russia’s window of opportunity in Syria would remain open only until April, when the sand storm season would begin. The severity of the sand storms means that military operations become far more difficult to perform, including air operations, since the fine sand particles do pose a threat to aircraft engines. Nevertheless, if this were a problem, it would have been sufficient to place the aircraft “under wraps” or in hangars, or simply limit their flight operations. Withdrawing them from Syria altogether means that any return deployment later on would suggest the original deployment was a mistake. Therefore this is unlikely to be a temporary measure brought about by the changes in the local weather.

Syria can handle it

The SAA is in a far better shape than it was only a few months ago, and can be relied upon to finish the war on its own, particularly since Syria Express material assistance and the advisory mission that was essential to rebuilding the SAA will continue as before. One has to keep in mind that the air campaign was not intended to win the war on its own. It was intended to buy the SAA some breathing time to allow it to be re-equipped and re-trained before going over to the offensive. It has been able to do so, as shown by the steady string of battlefield victories. Therefore there is no need for the Russian air presence to continue. The counter-argument here is that the Russian air support is still very helpful, both in tangible terms and in moral, psychological terms. The Islamists clearly did not like being under the rain of Russian bombs. Now that the rain is about to dry up, the Islamists will be able to view it as a moral victory of sorts, which may lead them to redouble their efforts just when everything seemed lost.

Western pressure

Here, too, there are no indications that’s what is driving the decision. NATO pressure has greatly tapered off in recent weeks, Merkel is no longer calling for a no-fly zone, Erdogan is not threatening to invade, Western media are not running breathless and unsourced stories about Russian aircraft bombing hospitals. Indeed, it was apparent for several weeks already that the West has acquiesced in Russian military campaign in Syria. Which is why the “stop order” took everyone by surprise.

Displeasure with Assad

It may be the “stop order” is intended to pressure Assad’s team to be more flexible during the negotiations, and nothing can do that better than suspending Russian support. However, that could have been more easily demonstrated by suspending air operations for a week, until Syrian government intransigence disappeared. So this possible explanation also fails to address the fact this is a permanent withdrawal following a declaration of victory.

A deal with the Sunnis

The most tangible outcome of the “stop order” is that it pretty much ends the push on to Raqqa. It is doubtful the SAA can manage it on their own, and Putin actually seemed to suggest just recently that the “honor” of taking Raqqa should fall to Obama. Does it mean that the Sunnis have managed to struck some kind of a political deal with Assad and/or the US? Considering that the objective of the Russia-led campaign was never a total defeat of all adversaries but bringing them to the negotiating table, that possibility cannot be ruled out. The fact that the end of the air campaign puts the future of the besieged Deir-ez-Zor, which Syrian and Russian forces cannot possibly abandon, no matter what, in doubt, also indicates that the garrison is no longer in danger of being overrun, which would in turn suggest a political deal of some sort. However, the Sunnis are hardly in a position to decide anything on their own, without asking their major regional sponsors, specifically the Saudis, who are discussed separately below.

A deal with the US

One almost certainly exists, though probably a fairly minimalistic one limited to “Assad can stay,” which in practical terms means allowing the ceasefire and the peace process to work without external attempts to undermine it. The Obama administration appears to have given up on that point, and even the US media grudgingly acknowledges the process is working. However, the concession on Russia’s part might be conceding the “race to Raqqa” to US allies, though that remains to be seen.

A deal with Europeans

It is entirely possible the EU, which has been operating under significant Turkish pressure exerted by means of herding refugees into Europe, has offered Russia unspecified concessions in return for Russia changing its policy in Syria. What these concessions might be is still unclear, but it seems like too much of a coincidence that the EU published its “five principles” for dealing with Russia, which affirm that the sanctions are a political, not an economic, tool, and that the two sides will pursue cooperation on matters of shared concern, on the same day as Vladimir Putin declared the Russian withdrawal from Syria. It is also noteworthy that the public barrage of criticism by European politicians has vanished in the last few weeks, indicating that the debate has shifted from the public arena into the diplomatic one.

A deal with the Saudis

Russia and the Saudis have an important matter to attend to: both want to limit global oil production in order to push the oil price back to $50/barrel and higher. Therefore a compromise on Syria that would accommodate the interests of both parties seems entirely plausible and even logical, since the value of the oil deal vastly outweighs the value of even the maximum victory in Syria for either of them. The Russian-Saudi rapprochement is also suggested by the fact that the Russia-Iran relations have suddenly hit a rough patch. Iran has withdrawn the IRGC from Syria, it is against the oil freeze plan pushed by Russia and Saudi Arabia and, most recently, it has suddenly declared that it cannot afford to pay for the S-300PMU air-defense weapons it ordered from Russia. This cooling of relations suggests that the Russia-Saudi relationship is on the mend, which leaves Iran frozen out.

The bottom line is that whatever just happened in Syria was most likely influenced by factors that are not directly related to Syria, and decided in diplomatic meetings far away from Syria. For that reason, all of these relationships need to be closely watched, and anything that looks like a quid-pro-quo for the Russian “stop order” in Syria should be evaluated as possibly being part of an actual quid-pro-quo

BlackLabel

13,251 posts

123 months

Saturday 19th March 2016
quotequote all
"suicide bomb attack at a busy shopping area in the Turkish city of Istanbul has killed at least four people, official"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35850625

rich85uk

3,367 posts

179 months

Saturday 19th March 2016
quotequote all
BlackLabel said:
"suicide bomb attack at a busy shopping area in the Turkish city of Istanbul has killed at least four people, official"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35850625
Reports that a number of those injured are from Israel, last suicide bomb in Istanbul killed 10 German tourists. If this was another guided tour for foreign tourists then perhaps these tours should be suspended for the time being

stripy7

806 posts

187 months

Saturday 19th March 2016
quotequote all
rich85uk said:
If this was another guided tour for foreign tourists then perhaps these tours should be suspended for the time being
Saturday morning piss boiler.

discusdave

412 posts

193 months

Saturday 19th March 2016
quotequote all
Kurds resisting Turkish assault in the streets of Diyarbakir


Why am I not a soldier? Why can’t I kill? I have always been taught that the pen is mightier than the sword. What intellectual naivete! Right now in Turkey, in the city of Diyarbakir, the mad dictator Erdogan is killing my friends, the Kurds, and even if I should, it will not save them.

This and subsequent photos were taken by the city’s inhabitants

I can only read their short messages (electricity in the city has been cut off, and the phones are charged by generators). They send me sad and horrifying photos which were covertly made from a window: tanks in the street, corpses. Since Monday, March 14, there is a continuous curfew in the city. There is no food or water. People risk their lives to go outside and find food, and they often fail to return. Their bodies litter the sidewalks.

Diyarbakir street-fighting casualties

According to eyewitnesses, there are tens of fatalities.

Three months ago, I and my Kurdish friend and translator named Erol were sitting in the heart of Diyarbakir, in the ancient Sur which is a UNESCO World Heritage Site. But UNESCO could not help. The city’s curfew had only just ended. There were barricades everywhere, the ancient boulevards were turned upside down, historic mosques shot to pieces and windows shattered all over the city. There was no electricity. We sat in a dark cafe by candlelight and drank cold wine. We already knew of the 14 killed civilians (mostly women and children), but were still talking like worldly Europeans. “He’s really not crazy, Erol said of Erdogan. Turkey is part of Europe. It’s not some Syria. Turkey is seeking to join Europe, which means that Europe and the US won’t allow a Kurdish genocide here.”

Some naive pups we were. We could not even imagine that the oh-so-moral Europe, scared to death by the flood of refugees, will instantly betray all imaginable human rights. That Erdogan, acting as if he were an Ottoman sultan, will dictate the terms: 6 billion euro up front, visa-free travel regime for Turks starting in June, and complete silence regarding his crimes by the European media. In return for his assurance that he will TRY to stop the migrants.

Kurds observing Turkish armored vehicles at a checkpoint in Diyarbakir

As soon as the dirty deal took place, already in the evening of March 15 I received a desperate message from Erol: “TO EVERYONE! Emergency announcement! I and my family, together with tens of thousands of civilians are locked up in our homes for the duration of the curfew and are trapped here. Many innocent people have been killed and wounded last night when the clashes between the Turkish army and the Kurds began. There is no water or electricity. There is heavy fighting around us.”

The once-busy intersection is littered with abandoned cars. A Turkish armored car in the top right corner.

Whole families are fleeing the fighting in the city.

I didn’t get any news from my friend for a whole day and was certain he was killed. On March 17, he wrote that his house in the Baglar district (the most densely populated part of Diyarbakir) was hit bya shell. Two of his married sisters lost their homes. He was able to flee with his mother and his favorite cat. They lost everything else. They spent a few hours under the rain and the shells until friends took them in. The last message from Erol was: there is constant fighting all around us. Erol, together with his mother, cat, and friends will attempt to get to the airport. This worldly, well educated individual, an atheist and a skeptic, now writes in every message “Pray for us!”

Darya Aslamova’s friend was able to get out of the city with his mother and cat. They lost everything.

discusdave

412 posts

193 months

Saturday 19th March 2016
quotequote all
https://youtu.be/49fJlvjwbl4?t=7 WARNING! Graphic

Turkish army firing on white flag wavers crossing a street

As a string of suicide attacks on Ankara and Istanbul have made abundantly clear, Turkey is in a state of turmoil. In fact, one might fairly say that the country has descended into outright chaos.

Today’s bombing of Istiklal Caddesi was just the latest tragedy to strike one of Turkey’s urban centers. Images from the aftermath of the blast are, much like those that appeared on social media in the wake of last Sunday’s TAK attack on a transit hub in Ankara’s Kizilay, horrific.

It’s important that the world consider why this is happening. Whether these are false flags or actual PKK/TAK attacks is irrelevant. The critical thing to understand is that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is allegedly committing genocide against the country’s Kurdish population. Does that excuse suicide attacks staged by Kurdish militants? Obviously not, but what’s happening in the country’s Kurdish southeast is appalling.

“Between August and February, the Turkish army -which has mobilised 10,000 troops to smoke out PKK militants - has imposed 59 curfews in the cities of Diyarbakir, Sirnak, Mardin, Hakkari, Mus, Elazig and Batman, affecting 1.3 million people,” France 24 writes, adding that “in Cizre, where a curfew was lifted earlier this month, 80% of the city has been destroyed.”

Here’s how Vice put it last summer when hostilities between Ankara and the PKK began anew:

“Cizre has spent years on the fringes of war. The unremarkable-looking town of just over 100,000 lies on the Tigris River, around 30 miles from the tripoint where Turkey meets conflict-ravaged Syria and Iraq, and violence regularly strays over the national boundaries. Now, the cycle of airstrikes and renewed PKK attacks on Turkish troops threaten a return to the three-decade-long struggle between the two sides that claimed more than 40,000 lives. And here, residents feel like they're at the heart of the fight.”

Last month, allegations emerged that Turkish soldiers had encircled a burning apartment building in the city. Hundreds of people were trapped inside. According to some reports (see here and here to suggest a few) they were burned alive.footage from January which appears to show the Turkish military firing on a group of Kurds in Cizre who look to be crossing the street waving a white flag.

Tony427

2,873 posts

233 months

Thursday 2nd June 2016
quotequote all
So only one vote against and one abstention, which was Mrs Merkel's.

Its almost as if her own Parliament wanted to give her a bit of a kicking.

Now if this stops Turkey operating the Migrant Return scheme and the floodgates are reopened how will this play in the EU and in the countries awash with migrants?

I wonder if this crossed the minds of the German MP's.

Looking forward to the the elections next year in Germany when the public can give their verdict on Mrs Merkel.

Cheers,

Tony




unpc

2,835 posts

213 months

Thursday 2nd June 2016
quotequote all
smegmore said:
I've worked there on the BP pipeline project '03-'04 from the Georgian border down to Erzerum so I think I'm qualified to comment.

The place is a 3rd world dump, perhaps the big cities such as Istanbul would be marginally better but certainly the areas where I worked left much to be desired. To see men and women urinating and defecating in a village street is a sight I won't forget and the smaller villages where the houses looked like they were on the verge of collapse all had satellite dishes and (according to legend) a Kalashnikov behind every front door.

The Jandarma (paramilitary police) were as corrupt as you would find anywhere in Africa, spot fines for carrying 'contraband items' were commonplace. And don't even get me started on being stopped and spot fined for 'speeding'

Anyone who says that it is on a par with a western European country must be on drugs, particularly where the interior is concerned.
Quite. I worked in Istanbul for a while and I generally like down at heel or baggy places but that is the only country I couldn't wait to leave. Despite what they'll tell you, they'll be in the EU sooner or later and if we (UK) haven't already left, I'm leaving when they do.

AJL308

6,390 posts

156 months

Thursday 2nd June 2016
quotequote all
smegmore said:
I've worked there on the BP pipeline project '03-'04 from the Georgian border down to Erzerum so I think I'm qualified to comment.

The place is a 3rd world dump, perhaps the big cities such as Istanbul would be marginally better but certainly the areas where I worked left much to be desired. To see men and women urinating and defecating in a village street is a sight I won't forget and the smaller villages where the houses looked like they were on the verge of collapse all had satellite dishes and (according to legend) a Kalashnikov behind every front door.

The Jandarma (paramilitary police) were as corrupt as you would find anywhere in Africa, spot fines for carrying 'contraband items' were commonplace. And don't even get me started on being stopped and spot fined for 'speeding'

Anyone who says that it is on a par with a western European country must be on drugs, particularly where the interior is concerned.
All coming to a continent-wide political union near your soon.

Vote LEAVE on the 23rd!

Sam All

3,101 posts

101 months

Thursday 2nd June 2016
quotequote all
unpc said:
Despite what they'll tell you, they'll be in the EU sooner or later and if we (UK) haven't already left, I'm leaving when they do.
It is not an IF, it is a when.

Likes Fast Cars

2,770 posts

165 months

Thursday 2nd June 2016
quotequote all
Sam All said:
unpc said:
Despite what they'll tell you, they'll be in the EU sooner or later and if we (UK) haven't already left, I'm leaving when they do.
It is not an IF, it is a when.
Fear not, it won't happen.

Bin-it Dimdirim (Binali Yildirim) the Turkish PM, and Reggie boy (Recep Erdogan) are at it again on the constitution and their stated aim of pushing through changes via the parliament. Given Reggie boy's penchant for control and breaking his own laws Turkey will continue to fail to meet the criteria to join. If he was a footballer he'd have the record for scoring own goals.

Reggie boy is hell-bent on joining his "Muslim brothers" in forming some sort of an utopian Islamic state, as the AKP have said over the past week "we have alternatives to the EU".

AJL308

6,390 posts

156 months

Thursday 2nd June 2016
quotequote all
Likes Fast Cars said:
Fear not, it won't happen.

Bin-it Dimdirim (Binali Yildirim) the Turkish PM, and Reggie boy (Recep Erdogan) are at it again on the constitution and their stated aim of pushing through changes via the parliament. Given Reggie boy's penchant for control and breaking his own laws Turkey will continue to fail to meet the criteria to join. If he was a footballer he'd have the record for scoring own goals.

Reggie boy is hell-bent on joining his "Muslim brothers" in forming some sort of an utopian Islamic state, as the AKP have said over the past week "we have alternatives to the EU".
It will happen. They are already being given visa-free travel which is bad enough given their horrible human rights record. They will end up being a full member sooner or later.

Sam All

3,101 posts

101 months

Thursday 2nd June 2016
quotequote all
You make good points, and really even Greece should not have been granted membership - albeit different reasons. Goldman fraud helped.

But with deluded politicians like Merkel, anything is possible.

The " own goals" is key.

Likes Fast Cars

2,770 posts

165 months

Thursday 2nd June 2016
quotequote all
AJL308 said:
It will happen. They are already being given visa-free travel which is bad enough given their horrible human rights record. They will end up being a full member sooner or later.
I just cannot see it happening. There will be no way they can get into the within the next 30 years or so. The dynamics of the AKP and Reggie boys's antics will work against it. The visa free travel is still a long way off.

Sam All

3,101 posts

101 months

Thursday 2nd June 2016
quotequote all
AJL308 said:
They are already being given visa-free travel which is bad enough given their horrible human rights record.
Not in force yet, and delayed for quite a while now .