Lib Dems: Making a great comeback?

Lib Dems: Making a great comeback?

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Discussion

Smollet

10,465 posts

189 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
s2art said:
S10GTA said:
It looks like a GE is on the cards for the Autumn unless I am mistaken. This is a very clever move by the LD.
Cant see it. The Tories are not going to want a GE until the Boundaries Commission has done its job.
Agreed. I know all the mainstream political parties are trying to commit suicide but there are even some lengths the Tories won't go to.

Smollet

10,465 posts

189 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
rover 623gsi said:
s2art said:
S10GTA said:
It looks like a GE is on the cards for the Autumn unless I am mistaken. This is a very clever move by the LD.
Cant see it. The Tories are not going to want a GE until the Boundaries Commission has done its job.
Does NO ONE remember the Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011???
That can be bypassed in certain circumstances.

vonuber

17,868 posts

164 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Interesting thing with the Lib Dems - if, during the coalition, they had not been such spineless gits drunk with power and actually stuck to their principles, there would probably still be a coalition.

Einion Yrth

19,575 posts

243 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Smollet said:
rover 623gsi said:
s2art said:
S10GTA said:
It looks like a GE is on the cards for the Autumn unless I am mistaken. This is a very clever move by the LD.
Cant see it. The Tories are not going to want a GE until the Boundaries Commission has done its job.
Does NO ONE remember the Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011???
That can be bypassed in certain circumstances.
It would require help from Tories, who would never be electable again. Turkeys and xmas, not impossible, but highly unlikely.

jonnyb

2,590 posts

251 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
It appears, after years of voting conservative, I have just joined the LibDems! eek

V8LM

5,166 posts

208 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Smollet said:
rover 623gsi said:
s2art said:
S10GTA said:
It looks like a GE is on the cards for the Autumn unless I am mistaken. This is a very clever move by the LD.
Cant see it. The Tories are not going to want a GE until the Boundaries Commission has done its job.
Does NO ONE remember the Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011???
That can be bypassed in certain circumstances.
Yes - The House votes on a motion that there shall be an early parliamentary general election, and is accepted with 2/3 of the seats agreeing.


V8LM

5,166 posts

208 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
s2art said:
Cant see it. The Tories are not going to want a GE until the Boundaries Commission has done its job.
Although with Red Jez doing his bit the Autumn might be the prime time to call one. I suspect everyone will wait until November and if Trump is elected then the current problems pale into insignificance.

Derek Smith

45,513 posts

247 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
footnote said:
It's all early days though. The response is just warmimg up.

The Tory leadership contest gives everyone until September.

Both Britain and EU have shown their hands and Merkel et al know Britain doesn't actually have the appetite to swallow what it's bitten off.

The more disruption there is, higher petrol prices, more expensive holiday money etc - all of these things hit the poor more than the rich.

The urban areas where Remain did well will turn to the Lib Dems, taking seats from the Tories and Labour whose 'Leave because we have to not because we want to' attitude won't cut the mustard.

I can't see people voting for UKIP in future.
The LibDems have a tried and tested infrastructure. One of the limits on expansion of a party is its ability to cope.

The UKIP has little or no relevance following an exit vote. It could well be the kiss of death. That said, it is unlikely that many of their voters will wander over to the LibDems.

Mind you, if Johnson gets us to leave but still have open borders and have to pay for the privilege, there might be a place for the UKIP, demanding a new referendum.

The loss of support for the LibDems seems to be from the young, being let down, betrayed really, by the broken promise of no increase in uni fees. It makes one wonder what might happen to them if there is an implosion of labour. It's not as if they can go lower. If they sort out their manifesto the disillusioned and those who felt betrayed - both sides of the divide - might well opt for a middle of the road party.

Farron is unsullied by political failure or betrayal.

He's odd but compared to the unholy duo of Johnson and Corbyn he stands a chance.



They need to abandon their promise to reapply as that's a no-hoper. We are stuck with the child of Johnson, whatever that might be.


anonymous-user

53 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Smollet said:
s2art said:
S10GTA said:
It looks like a GE is on the cards for the Autumn unless I am mistaken. This is a very clever move by the LD.
Cant see it. The Tories are not going to want a GE until the Boundaries Commission has done its job.
Agreed. I know all the mainstream political parties are trying to commit suicide but there are even some lengths the Tories won't go to.
I cant see Boris being next leader, too many dislike him & he's demonstrated zero leadership since he contributed to the havoc

The alternative candidate will be a remain supporter. They will go to the country for authority to press the self destruct button, which they wont get.
Most likely outcome will be a Conservative LD coalition, LDs price being no Brexit.

S10GTA

Original Poster:

12,645 posts

166 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Jimboka said:
I cant see Boris being next leader, too many dislike him & he's demonstrated zero leadership since he contributed to the havoc

The alternative candidate will be a remain supporter. They will go to the country for authority to press the self destruct button, which they wont get.
Most likely outcome will be a Conservative LD coalition, LDs price being no Brexit.
Which the cons will happily agree with

CrutyRammers

13,735 posts

197 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Vocal Minority said:
Just as a statistical aside

Office of National Statistics estimate that the UK is around 2% 'built upon' - that is covered in any man made surface - be it a building or road. So physical space isn't much of an issue. It's just that everyone likes to huddle.
Ahhh, statistics.
You'd have to ask, of the remaining 98% though, how much is buildable-on. Most of Scotland and a great deal of Wales is out, as is much of the North of England. And the bit right in the middle.
Then you have to consider that all of the remaining "wasted" space is rather needed for the tedious little matter of growing food.
Then you have to consider the infrastructure increases you need for each increase in populated space.
Then you might compare our average population density with virtually every other country on the planet.
Then finally you have to ask if you really want to live in some hellish hive world with no green space anywhere.

CrutyRammers

13,735 posts

197 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Timmy40 said:
It's very clever. There's 16m voters at least who are in favour of a re-run,
That's your idea of "clever" is it? Every single remain voter, plus some more, is in favour of a re-run, are they? Sheesh.

sanf

673 posts

171 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Jimboka said:
Smollet said:
s2art said:
S10GTA said:
It looks like a GE is on the cards for the Autumn unless I am mistaken. This is a very clever move by the LD.
Cant see it. The Tories are not going to want a GE until the Boundaries Commission has done its job.
Agreed. I know all the mainstream political parties are trying to commit suicide but there are even some lengths the Tories won't go to.
I cant see Boris being next leader, too many dislike him & he's demonstrated zero leadership since he contributed to the havoc

The alternative candidate will be a remain supporter. They will go to the country for authority to press the self destruct button, which they wont get.
Most likely outcome will be a Conservative LD coalition, LDs price being no Brexit.
This is what I'm starting to think - but with a slightly different spin. The Labour MP's have gone nuts as they are convinced there is going to be a GE, and Corbyn will do nothing. If that is the case;

Will the Conservatives try to get a Remainer into power - perhaps May. If it is Johnson I agree the chance of a GE is almost 0. However if it is one of the remains, then they could call a GE, and stand with a mandate of promising not to invoke Article 50. If Labour, Lib Dems & Conservative all stood on this mandate, the risk is that UKIP grow. However looking at the voting patterns, you would think one of the major parties (perhaps a coalition) would get elected. They could take this election as a mandate from the people NOT to invoke article 50, and so remain in the EU.

All is clam again....just a thought. The EU does have a tendency to just re-ask the question in a slightly different manner. This is a good option.

MEC

2,604 posts

272 months

Tuesday 28th June 2016
quotequote all
Do you think the EU will hold out until November for article 50 to be invoked? I suspect they will be jumping up and down on 3rd September as soon as the new leader is in place?

Can Article 50 be "cancelled" even if both the EU and UK agree? Not sure it will happen and a new application will take years.......

mybrainhurts

90,809 posts

254 months

Tuesday 28th June 2016
quotequote all
If you trust the leader of a political party who won't respect a democratic vote, I'd say you're exposing yourself to abuse in the future.


footnote

924 posts

105 months

Tuesday 28th June 2016
quotequote all
mybrainhurts said:
If you trust the leader of a political party who won't respect a democratic vote, I'd say you're exposing yourself to abuse in the future.
The issue of 'democracy' is surely a red herring in all of this.

If 'democracy' had ever bee a concern of parliament or the public, then surely there would have been a referendum on the death penalty yonks ago?

Of course, there never has been because of the fear that the 'will of the people' would be to bring back the death penalty.

Implicitly then, the 'people' are considered unready to make the 'right' decision on that.

The decision that 'the people' somehow knew what the 'right' decision was on the EU has (unfortunately from my perspective) been proved wrong.

Derek Smith

45,513 posts

247 months

Tuesday 28th June 2016
quotequote all
MEC said:
Do you think the EU will hold out until November for article 50 to be invoked? I suspect they will be jumping up and down on 3rd September as soon as the new leader is in place?

Can Article 50 be "cancelled" even if both the EU and UK agree? Not sure it will happen and a new application will take years.......
The EU have no control as to when the leave procedure is started. They can, and do, moan a bit but that means little. What they are worried about is the destabilising effect it will have.

As to whether we can withdraw our application to leave, much will depend on the EU.


motco

15,919 posts

245 months

Tuesday 28th June 2016
quotequote all
footnote said:
mybrainhurts said:
If you trust the leader of a political party who won't respect a democratic vote, I'd say you're exposing yourself to abuse in the future.
The issue of 'democracy' is surely a red herring in all of this.

If 'democracy' had ever bee a concern of parliament or the public, then surely there would have been a referendum on the death penalty yonks ago?

Of course, there never has been because of the fear that the 'will of the people' would be to bring back the death penalty.

Implicitly then, the 'people' are considered unready to make the 'right' decision on that.

The decision that 'the people' somehow knew what the 'right' decision was on the EU has (unfortunately from my perspective) been proved wrong.
Winston Churchill said:
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.

JagLover

42,265 posts

234 months

Tuesday 28th June 2016
quotequote all
CrutyRammers said:
Ahhh, statistics.
You'd have to ask, of the remaining 98% though, how much is buildable-on. Most of Scotland and a great deal of Wales is out, as is much of the North of England. And the bit right in the middle.
Then you have to consider that all of the remaining "wasted" space is rather needed for the tedious little matter of growing food.
Then you have to consider the infrastructure increases you need for each increase in populated space.
Then you might compare our average population density with virtually every other country on the planet.
Then finally you have to ask if you really want to live in some hellish hive world with no green space anywhere.
Don't bring logic and reason into this. Didn't you know the remainers have a monopoly on intelligence and education?



footnote

924 posts

105 months

Tuesday 28th June 2016
quotequote all
Derek Smith said:
The LibDems have a tried and tested infrastructure. One of the limits on expansion of a party is its ability to cope.

The UKIP has little or no relevance following an exit vote. It could well be the kiss of death. That said, it is unlikely that many of their voters will wander over to the LibDems.

They need to abandon their promise to reapply as that's a no-hoper. We are stuck with the child of Johnson, whatever that might be.
I think what encourages me about the Lib Dems is that they came straight out and said they would campaign in a general election on a Remain/Return platform.

They didn't wait around to see which way the wind was blowing - they took the initiative - risked ridicule and stood up for what every other party was also supposed to believe in - Remaining - credit to David Lammy for that too.

Their strength is that they do have the party/campaigning infrastructure.

True, they probably won't win over ex-Ukippers - but they are a natural choice for disillusioned Labour voters.

Of course, if the Govt go so as far as triggering Article 50 - it will be highly unlikely we will ever re-join.

But, at this stage, as I understand it, we don't have to do anything, do we? The Referendum can be ignored. It could be superseded by a winning election commitment - which seems possible or another referendum as per Jeremy Hunt's proposal.

My feeling is that now, post-referendum, the flawed logic of an 'amicable deal' from the EU of 'we pay less & get more' is now becoming apparent and people are realising just how impossible it always was.

After all, they say in the best negotiations, both sides should come away feeling as though they've got something of what they wanted and there was never anything for the EU in that bargaining stance.

The only thing I hope is that the EU don't decide that in fact the best result for the EU is to be permanently rid of the ball-ache that Britain has become and refuse to countenance any about-turn in whatever form.