How do we think EU negotiations will go?
Discussion
AC43 said:
Wasn't in love with the EU but on balance thought it best to stay.
I hated the Little England stance of Farage at the time and cringe at the Shout-Loudly-at-the-Foreigners approach of Dangerous Davies.
I hate what it's done to politics in this country and the divisions it has sown (just like Indy Ref in Scotland).
The world went global 25 years ago and why we're trying to go back to 1953 or something is beyond me.
I'm not saying the world is going to end but we've just created a massive drag on the economy for absolutely no guarantee of any upside.
Other views are available of course.
The only people creating a division are the ones who won't respect the result of the referendum, for better or worse we're leaving the EU.I hated the Little England stance of Farage at the time and cringe at the Shout-Loudly-at-the-Foreigners approach of Dangerous Davies.
I hate what it's done to politics in this country and the divisions it has sown (just like Indy Ref in Scotland).
The world went global 25 years ago and why we're trying to go back to 1953 or something is beyond me.
I'm not saying the world is going to end but we've just created a massive drag on the economy for absolutely no guarantee of any upside.
Other views are available of course.
Keep whinging about the result ain't gonna help.
Raygun said:
AC43 said:
Wasn't in love with the EU but on balance thought it best to stay.
I hated the Little England stance of Farage at the time and cringe at the Shout-Loudly-at-the-Foreigners approach of Dangerous Davies.
I hate what it's done to politics in this country and the divisions it has sown (just like Indy Ref in Scotland).
The world went global 25 years ago and why we're trying to go back to 1953 or something is beyond me.
I'm not saying the world is going to end but we've just created a massive drag on the economy for absolutely no guarantee of any upside.
Other views are available of course.
The only people creating a division are the ones who won't respect the result of the referendumI hated the Little England stance of Farage at the time and cringe at the Shout-Loudly-at-the-Foreigners approach of Dangerous Davies.
I hate what it's done to politics in this country and the divisions it has sown (just like Indy Ref in Scotland).
The world went global 25 years ago and why we're trying to go back to 1953 or something is beyond me.
I'm not saying the world is going to end but we've just created a massive drag on the economy for absolutely no guarantee of any upside.
Other views are available of course.
If people are going to play that game they deserve and should expect a backlash.
That was gutter politics that made me ashamed to be a Brit just as the antics of the SNP during IndyRef made me ashamed to be a Scot.
Anyway, as I've said before, other views are available and no doubt many will now decide I'm some sort of "virtue-signalling urban elitist" or whatever those charming people at Breitbart would say.
Personally, I'm just interested in the economy and always feel more comfortable with centrist politics. Worried about the economy and deeply worried buy the political landscape a year on from the Brexit vote. The place is going mental.
AC43 said:
Sway said:
AC43 said:
handpaper said:
If they make themselves the enemy, it will not end well.
So what do you know that they don't considering that's a fairly staggering about face?
Edited to add link: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-06-27...
Edited by Sway on Tuesday 27th June 17:29
The FT did a piece which I posted the five different scenarios they foresaw and the ranged from bad to crippling.
Or try listening to Phillip Hammond, the IOD or the CBI have to say about it.
It's s
t. Oh and in case you haven't noticed it's blown the parliamentary Conservative party up completely. In her campaign May turned into some sort of deranged Brexit campaigner and she now the left us with a very real prospect of Marxist labour administration.
This is the biggest single f
kup in post war history.Still I suppose we can still "fight them on the beaches" whatever that means.
To clarify; I didn't intend to be jingoistic. Hostile behaviour from the EU might mean that "it will not end well" for the UK and EU both.
But reaction in the UK (and other EU member states) to perceived enmity and/or bad faith from the EU will almost certainly be a hardening of public opinion against Brussels.
jjlynn27 said:
I love the experts on PH, all mega-multi-uber directors knowing that EU is a bad idea. Meanwhile, Sorrell, Branson, Dennis to name the few of this world, the semi-successful bunch, what do they know, eh?
Lol Branson......the man who hasn't lived in the UK for 40years, yep should definitely listen to him as to what's best for the UK!jjlynn27 said:
I love the experts on PH, all mega-multi-uber directors knowing that EU is a bad idea. Meanwhile, Sorrell, Branson, Dennis to name the few of this world, the semi-successful bunch, what do they know, eh?
As long as Branson et al and PHers don't listen to mega uber genius economists after 71% of these gurus predicted a post-referendum recession for 2016.Apart from that, think positively
the UK leaving the EU is a good idea.jjlynn27 said:
I love the experts on PH, all mega-multi-uber directors knowing that EU is a bad idea. Meanwhile, Sorrell, Branson, Dennis to name the few of this world, the semi-successful bunch, what do they know, eh?
Being altruists no doubt they will base their opinions on what is best for UK citizens.handpaper said:
...Hostile behaviour from the EU might mean that "it will not end well" for the UK and EU both.
But reaction in the UK (and other EU member states) to perceived enmity and/or bad faith from the EU will almost certainly be a hardening of public opinion against Brussels.
Rather a huge jump into speculation in the final sentence...But reaction in the UK (and other EU member states) to perceived enmity and/or bad faith from the EU will almost certainly be a hardening of public opinion against Brussels.
There will certainly be issues portrayed as enmity or bad faith from the EU whipped up by certain of the tabloids. Whether sufficient people will believe it is enmity or bad faith is another matter entirely, although the usual suspects on here will.
Under normal circumstances I would say that it is the job of politicians to keep a lid and a perspective on this sort of thing, but the way we have kicked things off prior to the election with megaphone diplomacy perhaps proves that we are not living under normal circumstances.
Nothing is boding well at the moment. The status of EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the EU ought to have been one of the simpler matters to agree on. Instead, both the EU and the UK have decided to throw their toys out of the pram over who oversees it and the finer points of detail. This is not the way to compromise or come to an agreement quickly.
If this issue can't more or less go through "on the nod" then there is very little chance of getting an agreement on more contentious issues, which leads me on to the main point I am going to make.
Much has been spun in the last few weeks that "85% of the population voted in the GE for parties that support Brexit." I think we may have forgotten that a couple of years ago both of those parties' official line was pro-EU. If you are naive enough to believe that they have now all changed their tunes because of "the will of the people expressed in the referendum" then that is your concern and I wish you well. They have almost certainly changed their view, publicly at least, because they think that that's the gravy train that will get them re-elected next time.
And minds could change again - I am old enough to remember Harold Wilson getting the nickname of "The Grand Old Duke of York" when it came to his stance on the Common Market as it was then. His view was "blowing in the wind" according to how he thought he read the runes of public opinion. We have had a couple of PMs over the last two years who have also dismally failed in their rune-reading skills.
So, if we don't get a deal from the EU we will still indeed have two options - to crash out of the EU onto WTO rules and at the very least run the risk of crippling the economy and the country for a number of years (international business won't like it if we do), or to simply accept that staying in would be economically better for the UK than getting out.
If that scenario happens, I can't see the remainers in either major party sitting idly back whilst a decision is taken to crash out.
Brexit could easily fall at the last fence, if not before.
Mrr T said:
jsf said:
Mrr T said:
jsf said:
Mrr T said:
You’re missing the point. My family is NOT being given any rights. The government was threatening to take rights away. Should I be celebrating getting to keep thing I already legally have.
Yes you should.You need to understand the UK will be a sovereign state again and will set its own rules. No country can or will offer a fixed system for eternity, you have to be able to deal with the realities of an ever changing world. God knows how people like you would handle a proper crisis.
All you ever do is moan, even when offered a very good deal. There are a lot of positives in the offer for you and your family. Stop being so negative and look at what good this country offers, we have a huge streak of fairness in our national identity, we always try and do the right thing, even when that costs us.
The continued increase in migration to this country despite the knowledge that we are leaving the EU should tell you something, compared to many other options we are a gold standard country. You know this to be the case, so does your family.
You try and paint the UK as some tin pot state that doesn't have a long established history of looking after it's citizens. Well before the EU we were doing just that. We will continue to do that post EU.
You keep referring to the state as if it was some living being which can decide things arbitrarily. It’s not the state does not have a physical body. The people elect a government which can then make laws. The power of the state in the UK is great with limited checks. One of the major check on the power of the government is the ECHR.
One of the rights of all individuals in the UK, whether they hold UK passports or not, it the right to not have rights taken away from them arbitrarily. It’s a qualified right so you take rights away but it must be reasonable.
Let’s say Corbyn had won the election and said he was going to rerun the referendum but only allow those between 16 and 50, those most affected, to vote. Would you have accepted that because it was the will of the government? I expect not.
I also have enough faith in my fellow countrymen to resist anything imposed by a rouge PM.
The UK population as a whole has a very different attitude to institutions than the mainland, we have a very different political history, it simply amazes me how weak minded some people have become in their grasping for institutions to protect them when we as a nation can do that ourselves.
There is a very good reason why our unwritten constitution has worked so well, its the perfect system for the modern world where you don't tie yourself into rigid regimes that are out of date the moment they are written. This is one of the major issues with the EU now, they are trying to respond to world events by employing lawyers to get around their treaties, rather than ripping up the treaties and formulating a system that is fit for the now.
jjlynn27 said:
I love the experts on PH, all mega-multi-uber directors knowing that EU is a bad idea. Meanwhile, Sorrell, Branson, Dennis to name the few of this world, the semi-successful bunch, what do they know, eh?
The lovely thing about politics is that it's not just those with bags of money that have valid opinions.195 countries in the world. 27 run that system.
But yes, Branson, Sorrell and Les Dennis must be right.
AC43 said:
The world went global 25 years ago and why we're trying to go back to 1953 or something is beyond me.
Indeed, and we find ourselves in a protectionist block unable to arrange our global affairs to take advantage of this fact.Brexit is not about turning the clock back, its about enabling us to join the rest of the world moving forward, so we can embrace the rapidly growing parts of the world and trade with third world areas such as Africa on fairer terms, which will help raise them out of poverty and grow the global marketplace further. we have already lost far too much time on that continent compared to China.
Why people think the EU is global is beyond me, its a protectionist system. When we joined this block we shut out our traditional trade partners around the world, an utterly stupid decision, especially in light of the technological advances that have shrunk the world.
jsf said:
AC43 said:
The world went global 25 years ago and why we're trying to go back to 1953 or something is beyond me.
Indeed, and we find ourselves in a protectionist block unable to arrange our global affairs to take advantage of this fact.Brexit is not about turning the clock back, its about enabling us to join the rest of the world moving forward, so we can embrace the rapidly growing parts of the world and trade with third world areas such as Africa on fairer terms, which will help raise them out of poverty and grow the global marketplace further. we have already lost far too much time on that continent compared to China.
Why people think the EU is global is beyond me, its a protectionist system. When we joined this block we shut out our traditional trade partners around the world, an utterly stupid decision, especially in light of the technological advances that have shrunk the world.
handpaper said:
Oh dear, I seem to have upset a bit of an anthill here
To clarify; I didn't intend to be jingoistic. Hostile behaviour from the EU might mean that "it will not end well" for the UK and EU both.
But reaction in the UK (and other EU member states) to perceived enmity and/or bad faith from the EU will almost certainly be a hardening of public opinion against Brussels.
Glad about the jingoism. Grew up in Scotland surrounded by it. Hated it. Moved down to London and saw much much less of it. Liked that. To clarify; I didn't intend to be jingoistic. Hostile behaviour from the EU might mean that "it will not end well" for the UK and EU both.
But reaction in the UK (and other EU member states) to perceived enmity and/or bad faith from the EU will almost certainly be a hardening of public opinion against Brussels.
Anyway, let's agree that we have different viewpoints and that, frankly, none of us have a clue how this will actually play out in the end.
rs1952 said:
Nothing is boding well at the moment. The status of EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the EU ought to have been one of the simpler matters to agree on. Instead, both the EU and the UK have decided to throw their toys out of the pram over who oversees it and the finer points of detail. This is not the way to compromise or come to an agreement quickly.
Supremacy of the ECJ is and always was going to be a major sticking point, whatever happens over the next weeks in that area sets a massive precedent for all other areas of treaty negotiation going forward. The starting positions merely reflect the polar opposite visions, they clearly don't want us to actually leave (ECJ supremacy for example which = no Brexit), whereas the British side is saying what many interpret as hard Brexit, in effect bilateral treaties with talk from our side of some form of court of arbitration to smooth the practical application by aiding resolution of disputes. I predict the next thing we will hear is an undertaking to read across and lock in wholesale all of the current EU law wrt individuals, in effect removing any scope for "tinkering" over the next two years when EU law is read into UK law. This would be reasonable IMHO, many Brexiteers want to tinker but is a nonsense to expect the other side to agree to anything other than a certainty in this area.NJH said:
I predict the next thing we will hear is an undertaking to read across and lock in wholesale all of the current EU law wrt individuals, in effect removing any scope for "tinkering" over the next two years when EU law is read into UK law. This would be reasonable IMHO, many Brexiteers want to tinker but is a nonsense to expect the other side to agree to anything other than a certainty in this area.
There is no chance whatsoever of the UK agreeing to accept ECJ rulings. Its unworkable. The only compromise is some form of dispute resolution mechanism outside the UK and EU. Even then the UK cannot bind future parliaments, so its never going to be 'certain'.s2art said:
There is no chance whatsoever of the UK agreeing to accept ECJ rulings. Its unworkable. The only compromise is some form of dispute resolution mechanism outside the UK and EU. Even then the UK cannot bind future parliaments, so its never going to be 'certain'.
The EU know what they are asking for is utterly ridiculous. They are still trying to push for us to stay. The repeal bill will see current EU legislation adopted here. So on day 1 their citizens are fine.
Beyond that, their citizens are adults and are blessed to make a choice about where they live. Presumably in the counter offer they have yet to make they are not proposing that UK citizens in the EU will be subject to British courts? If not, why not? The same arguments apply.
My hope and current expectation is that this is just opening salvos from them that will calm down over the next 6mths before common sense prevails.
If not, I'll become a strong advocate of just leaving them to it. No deal. No payment. Just cut ties and be thankful such idiocy no longer has a serious part to play in our future. And on citizen's rights, keep the same deal May has offered with the cut off set at the issuing of Art 50.
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