How do we think EU negotiations will go?
Discussion
bobbylondonuk said:
It doesn't really matter what games they play. The money always comes into London first. Everyone with a bit of cash anywhere in the world would prefer to deal with London rather than Paris Frankfurt Milan. If it was any different there would be a tremendous amount of cash flowing directly into the EU and they would not have to think about stealing our business
I think more than that, generally speaking, a single country can move much faster and be more nimble than a 27 member group.Especially if whoever wins next time gets a majority.
Sway said:
How?
In order to do so, they'd have to create the capability and capacity.
Compared to BIPs, this is an immense task.
If they freeze us out through lack of deal in 18 or so month's time (or even after any mooted transition period), then they lose access to their key provider of FS services. Crippling for their economies (see the conversation about the challenges of no airspace deal for us, and multiply those challenges).
Yet, as you say they've been trying for years to compete with London, and failed (not just legislatively, but also in straight competition). If they protect their ability to access the CoL, then their ability to create the capability and capacity to replace it is seriously reduced.
So by what mechanism would they be able to refuse a deal and switch the provision to the continent?
There are a number of things they could - probably will - try. They could start off with a way to ease conditions and gradually introduce mechanisms to favour work in the EU.In order to do so, they'd have to create the capability and capacity.
Compared to BIPs, this is an immense task.
If they freeze us out through lack of deal in 18 or so month's time (or even after any mooted transition period), then they lose access to their key provider of FS services. Crippling for their economies (see the conversation about the challenges of no airspace deal for us, and multiply those challenges).
Yet, as you say they've been trying for years to compete with London, and failed (not just legislatively, but also in straight competition). If they protect their ability to access the CoL, then their ability to create the capability and capacity to replace it is seriously reduced.
So by what mechanism would they be able to refuse a deal and switch the provision to the continent?
The critical issue is that the UK will no longer be able to influence the direction of EU FS regulation directly.
And we know they would love the chance to create conditions favourable to build rival FS sectors - the UK is proof it is a very very lucrative source of GDP.
I'm sure the many thought Rome as the centre of the Roman empire would "rule the world" as it were for ever.
///ajd said:
Sway said:
How?
In order to do so, they'd have to create the capability and capacity.
Compared to BIPs, this is an immense task.
If they freeze us out through lack of deal in 18 or so month's time (or even after any mooted transition period), then they lose access to their key provider of FS services. Crippling for their economies (see the conversation about the challenges of no airspace deal for us, and multiply those challenges).
Yet, as you say they've been trying for years to compete with London, and failed (not just legislatively, but also in straight competition). If they protect their ability to access the CoL, then their ability to create the capability and capacity to replace it is seriously reduced.
So by what mechanism would they be able to refuse a deal and switch the provision to the continent?
There are a number of things they could - probably will - try. They could start off with a way to ease conditions and gradually introduce mechanisms to favour work in the EU.In order to do so, they'd have to create the capability and capacity.
Compared to BIPs, this is an immense task.
If they freeze us out through lack of deal in 18 or so month's time (or even after any mooted transition period), then they lose access to their key provider of FS services. Crippling for their economies (see the conversation about the challenges of no airspace deal for us, and multiply those challenges).
Yet, as you say they've been trying for years to compete with London, and failed (not just legislatively, but also in straight competition). If they protect their ability to access the CoL, then their ability to create the capability and capacity to replace it is seriously reduced.
So by what mechanism would they be able to refuse a deal and switch the provision to the continent?
The critical issue is that the UK will no longer be able to influence the direction of EU FS regulation directly.
And we know they would love the chance to create conditions favourable to build rival FS sectors - the UK is proof it is a very very lucrative source of GDP.
I'm sure the many thought Rome as the centre of the Roman empire would "rule the world" as it were for ever.
New York is not ruled by financial regulations from Brussels or Frankfurt, and NY is doing just fine.
Switzerland is outside the EU financial regs and its finance sector per head is around +40% bigger than the UK.
Project Fear has been constantly wrong for the past 2 years, but it still continues to try and spread fear. It's bizarre behaviour.
Zod said:
Funkycoldribena said:
KrissKross said:
When arguing with people on the internet I always imagine:
1. The guy in his mums bedroom pretending to be a super hero, they typical keyboard warrior.
2. The guy in an office, as a politician, accountant or solicitor and clearly "super intelligent".
3. The guy on his yacht who can do whatever he likes, and started out life on a council estate.
... and many examples in-between but when you find out who people really are shouldn't you start to question who is right and who is wrong in some situations or discussions, it seems on here that someones grammar or spelling is more important than an end result.
I think you'll find no1 is closest.1. The guy in his mums bedroom pretending to be a super hero, they typical keyboard warrior.
2. The guy in an office, as a politician, accountant or solicitor and clearly "super intelligent".
3. The guy on his yacht who can do whatever he likes, and started out life on a council estate.
... and many examples in-between but when you find out who people really are shouldn't you start to question who is right and who is wrong in some situations or discussions, it seems on here that someones grammar or spelling is more important than an end result.
I guarantee there's a lot bulls
t overplaying.
///ajd said:
There are a number of things they could - probably will - try. They could start off with a way to ease conditions and gradually introduce mechanisms to favour work in the EU.
The critical issue is that the UK will no longer be able to influence the direction of EU FS regulation directly.
And we know they would love the chance to create conditions favourable to build rival FS sectors - the UK is proof it is a very very lucrative source of GDP.
I'm sure the many thought Rome as the centre of the Roman empire would "rule the world" as it were for ever.
There are only two mechanisms to do that - regulatory freezes, or favourable competivity. The critical issue is that the UK will no longer be able to influence the direction of EU FS regulation directly.
And we know they would love the chance to create conditions favourable to build rival FS sectors - the UK is proof it is a very very lucrative source of GDP.
I'm sure the many thought Rome as the centre of the Roman empire would "rule the world" as it were for ever.
Regulatory shenanigans also freezes out the RoW. Simply not going to happen - it's why the world's banking regs have become so globalised.
On competivity, there are significant restrictions to doing that without it applying to all sectors across the whole EU. Outside, we're far more able to compete with that, and have the advantage of the existing foundation.
Yipper said:
Zod said:
Goldman has been in Frankfurt for a very long time. They are expanding there, but haven't yet decided which parts of which businesses they will transfer from London.
They are building a giant new London HQ next to the existing buildings. They will almost certainly move in, but bring Goldman they have financed it themselves and are sitting on a large book value profit, so some bankers have proposed letting the building or selling it and staying put in their existing offices, particularly in light of the lack of growth in personnel as a result of Brexit. (The City is not hiring at the moment)
Goldman has lost a lot of its influence in finance since the 2007 crash and its sleazy involvement. Blankfein, nowadays, appears less and less in the top-10 rankings for influential financiers. In his latest tweet, it looks like he's just angling for some more government freebies from the UK or Germany and he's starting to look a bit hyperbolic and over-emotional.They are building a giant new London HQ next to the existing buildings. They will almost certainly move in, but bring Goldman they have financed it themselves and are sitting on a large book value profit, so some bankers have proposed letting the building or selling it and staying put in their existing offices, particularly in light of the lack of growth in personnel as a result of Brexit. (The City is not hiring at the moment)
London just this week attracted TMF (financial services) to shift 1-2k staff from Amsterdam to London, the LSE was recently confirmed as by far the biggest stock exchange for new IPOs in EMEA, the LSE is well on track to become the world's biggest stock exchange next year (overtaking Nasdaq), Aramco Saudi is about to part-float its $2 trillion company (by far the biggest in the world) in London, and London forex market share is this year bigger than all the rest of the EU and NY combined. A few years ago, everyone was going to move hedgefunds to Geneva -- they soon realised the lack of scale, law and buzz... and London got even stronger.
In conclusion -- Goldman is highly unlikely to move anything but a token gesture office to Frankfurt.
The LSE has always held that position in EMEA.
Aramco’s IPO is nowhere near and no decision has been made on listing venue.
Zod said:
Yipper said:
Zod said:
Goldman has been in Frankfurt for a very long time. They are expanding there, but haven't yet decided which parts of which businesses they will transfer from London.
They are building a giant new London HQ next to the existing buildings. They will almost certainly move in, but bring Goldman they have financed it themselves and are sitting on a large book value profit, so some bankers have proposed letting the building or selling it and staying put in their existing offices, particularly in light of the lack of growth in personnel as a result of Brexit. (The City is not hiring at the moment)
Goldman has lost a lot of its influence in finance since the 2007 crash and its sleazy involvement. Blankfein, nowadays, appears less and less in the top-10 rankings for influential financiers. In his latest tweet, it looks like he's just angling for some more government freebies from the UK or Germany and he's starting to look a bit hyperbolic and over-emotional.They are building a giant new London HQ next to the existing buildings. They will almost certainly move in, but bring Goldman they have financed it themselves and are sitting on a large book value profit, so some bankers have proposed letting the building or selling it and staying put in their existing offices, particularly in light of the lack of growth in personnel as a result of Brexit. (The City is not hiring at the moment)
London just this week attracted TMF (financial services) to shift 1-2k staff from Amsterdam to London, the LSE was recently confirmed as by far the biggest stock exchange for new IPOs in EMEA, the LSE is well on track to become the world's biggest stock exchange next year (overtaking Nasdaq), Aramco Saudi is about to part-float its $2 trillion company (by far the biggest in the world) in London, and London forex market share is this year bigger than all the rest of the EU and NY combined. A few years ago, everyone was going to move hedgefunds to Geneva -- they soon realised the lack of scale, law and buzz... and London got even stronger.
In conclusion -- Goldman is highly unlikely to move anything but a token gesture office to Frankfurt.
The LSE has always held that position in EMEA.
Aramco’s IPO is nowhere near and no decision has been made on listing venue.
Holland was the first and biggest IPO market in EMEA, before London took over.
Documents have already been leaked to the FT saying listing in NY is a legal no-no for Aramco, the LSE has recently completely rewritten its rules to accommodate listings from sovereign-owned firms (like, err, Aramco), and London is the world's biggest oil market. London has won. Aramco will be the world's biggest company in 2018, overtaking Apple -- and it is coming to London.
Are you talking about the 18th century? 
Unlike you, I actually work in the IPO market. There is no certainty whatsoever around the Aramco IPO. We all know they are wary of New York because of litigation risk.
The LSE Rules are irrelevant. The FCA launched a consultation about changes to its Listing Rules for “sovereign-controlled companies” that did not mention Aramco, although that (along with several Kazakh companies was its aim). The consultation closed on Friday. I submitted my firm’s response. Did you submit one? I was also quoted in papers and online financial sites in relation to the FCA CP. one of the broadsheets wants to talk to me tomorrow about it.
Unlike you, I actually work in the IPO market. There is no certainty whatsoever around the Aramco IPO. We all know they are wary of New York because of litigation risk.
The LSE Rules are irrelevant. The FCA launched a consultation about changes to its Listing Rules for “sovereign-controlled companies” that did not mention Aramco, although that (along with several Kazakh companies was its aim). The consultation closed on Friday. I submitted my firm’s response. Did you submit one? I was also quoted in papers and online financial sites in relation to the FCA CP. one of the broadsheets wants to talk to me tomorrow about it.
Edited by Zod on Thursday 19th October 23:25
You said "London has *always* held that position". It hasn't. You lied, and it's important to note it
All the signs point to London. The anti-NY leaks, the twisted pro-London rules, and the preeminence of oil and gas and mining in London.
I won't charge you for the cutting-edge analysis
All the signs point to London. The anti-NY leaks, the twisted pro-London rules, and the preeminence of oil and gas and mining in London.
I won't charge you for the cutting-edge analysis
Yipper said:
You said "London has *always* held that position". It hasn't. You lied, and it's important to note it
All the signs point to London. The anti-NY leaks, the twisted pro-London rules, and the preeminence of oil and gas and mining in London.
All the signs point to London. The anti-NY leaks, the twisted pro-London rules, and the preeminence of oil and gas and mining in London.
so you were talking about the 18th Century. Yes, London is hopeful. There is no way that the Aramco IPO will go to continental Europe, because we dominate the market.
My group is working on several IPOs into London from the rest of Europe and from the Middle East at the moment.
This has nothing to do with fears for other businesses in the City.
Carl_Manchester said:
Looks like Goldman just upped the ante.
I think they might have actually done us a favour by focusing minds.
Say what you like about them but they know how to get their voice heard. Very smart twitter post by Blofeld.
Goldman has just recently signed off on its 2nd largest global office to open in 2019.I think they might have actually done us a favour by focusing minds.
Say what you like about them but they know how to get their voice heard. Very smart twitter post by Blofeld.
It's in London.
Some new stats on London smashing Europe for fintech.
Published today.
London gets more cash than the rest of the whole EU combined.
It is time for Project Fear to stop bashing London.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/19/london-is-top-euro...
Nine European cities ranked by total venture capital investment in fintech
London, U.K.: $3.49 billion
Stockholm, Sweden: $659 million
Berlin, Germany: $436 million
Paris, France: $327 million
Dublin, Ireland: $108 million
Amsterdam, Netherlands: $98 million
Zurich, Switzerland: $90 million
Madrid, Spain: $45 million
Frankfurt, Germany: $34 million.
Source: Pitchbook
Published today.
London gets more cash than the rest of the whole EU combined.
It is time for Project Fear to stop bashing London.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/19/london-is-top-euro...
Nine European cities ranked by total venture capital investment in fintech
London, U.K.: $3.49 billion
Stockholm, Sweden: $659 million
Berlin, Germany: $436 million
Paris, France: $327 million
Dublin, Ireland: $108 million
Amsterdam, Netherlands: $98 million
Zurich, Switzerland: $90 million
Madrid, Spain: $45 million
Frankfurt, Germany: $34 million.
Source: Pitchbook
///ajd said:
Tuna said:
The French and German financial centres have been trying to take services away from London since forever, with various justifications as to why it should be enabled by legislation and political support. What is notable is how effective those attempts have been - not very.
Correct.We - whilst in the EU - have fought off and defended every attempt to undermine our FS sector by the EU.
We have now handed the EU - on a plate - the perfect mandate to play merry hell with our FS sector.
As Homer would say - Doh!
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