How do we think EU negotiations will go?
Discussion
jjlynn27 said:
s2art said:
The BDI has instructed Merkel that there will be no tariff barriers. She vill obey orders!
Do you actually believe that BDI can instruct Merkel? It would be like saying CBI can instruct Cameron.jjlynn27 said:
lostkiwi said:
6th largest now. Since last week France has risen to the 5th spot.
I agree with you in broad terms Murph - particularly about entering negotiations in a considered way.
For this reason I think its good the big red button has yet to be pushed as it gives time to ensure the right people are in the right place to get the best we can. You are also correct that nothing is set in stone. The way I think this will play out is we will end up with WTO after 2 years but withing 5 years of that will be in a trade deal where we get free trade for some concessions over access etc.
In some ways this may not be such a bad thing as it will crystalise how much trade we do with the EU and it also levels the playing field. The only bad thing is it is likely to have further costs associated with it in terms of impact to our economy.
You realize that WTO = no passporting? If that is even remotely on the cards instead Norway/Swiss option, what we've seen so far will look like a walk in the park. I agree with you in broad terms Murph - particularly about entering negotiations in a considered way.
For this reason I think its good the big red button has yet to be pushed as it gives time to ensure the right people are in the right place to get the best we can. You are also correct that nothing is set in stone. The way I think this will play out is we will end up with WTO after 2 years but withing 5 years of that will be in a trade deal where we get free trade for some concessions over access etc.
In some ways this may not be such a bad thing as it will crystalise how much trade we do with the EU and it also levels the playing field. The only bad thing is it is likely to have further costs associated with it in terms of impact to our economy.
My hope now is that we get good team of negotiators, and stop with dumbass bravado that will help nothing. Have a plan, activate 50 and get on with it.
Agree with what you said about getting on with it.
dazwalsh said:
The financial services passportings is a bit of a biggie, how likely are we to get a deal on that if we aren't in the EU? I can see a lot of financial institutions heading over the irish sea to Dublin. God knows how many jobs will go.
The Liechtenstein solution... http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=8...
trickywoo said:
matsoc said:
Sanctions against Russia made Italy loose €4 billions in export but they are still in place.
The unemployment rate in Italy is nearly 12%. Youth unemployment is over 40%. They are f
ked.Italian exports to the UK are something like €15 billion.
I just hope people like you aren't negotiating for the UK.
I am not young anymore, I am 35, but if Italians get no job is also their fault, they do not choose the right universities, they do not study foreign languages, they are not skilled. I am living in Italy now working for a company with many plants across Europe but if a ref in/out should come here I would be happy to return to France or Germany where I lived and worked before.
Is the key here what we negotiate with others areas as well?
You would hope that (if we do invoke Article 50, which may never happen) that the government would have various teams of people negotiating with different regions - US, India, China, Japan, Australia, etc.
If the day comes where we depart the EU, would we really want everything to revert to WTO. Hopefully they will be organised enough so on EU depart day +1, multiple deals are announced with other partners. At least that would help the markets to be calmer at that time. If they don't then there is surely no point in any of this, other than having to re-start the economy but with no proper trading agreements.
Plus - I'm pretty sure the Scotland position won't have gone un-noticed in the bargaining stakes. I know it's unlikely that the EU will allow part of a member state to remain (the Spanish would not be impressed), but it is yet another bargaining piece the EU has.
I still think the negotiations may take place during this time of no pre-negotiations. So that when the new prime-minister arrives at the first meeting, some very minor tweaks will be made - maybe, just maybe Junkers will be forced out. Lots of debates in the European parliament, before a General Election is thrown in the UK - the 3 main parties running on a not triggering Article 50 campaign. One of the 3 wins, perhaps a coalition gvt again. Apart from a couple of minor changes, all carries on as before, democracy is served and Nigel Farage is goaded about who's laughing now in the EU parliament session.
You would hope that (if we do invoke Article 50, which may never happen) that the government would have various teams of people negotiating with different regions - US, India, China, Japan, Australia, etc.
If the day comes where we depart the EU, would we really want everything to revert to WTO. Hopefully they will be organised enough so on EU depart day +1, multiple deals are announced with other partners. At least that would help the markets to be calmer at that time. If they don't then there is surely no point in any of this, other than having to re-start the economy but with no proper trading agreements.
Plus - I'm pretty sure the Scotland position won't have gone un-noticed in the bargaining stakes. I know it's unlikely that the EU will allow part of a member state to remain (the Spanish would not be impressed), but it is yet another bargaining piece the EU has.
I still think the negotiations may take place during this time of no pre-negotiations. So that when the new prime-minister arrives at the first meeting, some very minor tweaks will be made - maybe, just maybe Junkers will be forced out. Lots of debates in the European parliament, before a General Election is thrown in the UK - the 3 main parties running on a not triggering Article 50 campaign. One of the 3 wins, perhaps a coalition gvt again. Apart from a couple of minor changes, all carries on as before, democracy is served and Nigel Farage is goaded about who's laughing now in the EU parliament session.
lostkiwi said:
6th largest now. Since last week France has risen to the 5th spot.
...
Is that an "official" figure or some manner of projection? I'm not convinced there's been an actual shift of 20% in one week as a result of the vote, but happy to be persuaded otherwise ...
European markets have been taking a proper hammering, and they've been reinforcing their love of a good strike/ruck over the last few months.lostkiwi said:
...
I agree with you in broad terms Murph - particularly about entering negotiations in a considered way.
For this reason I think its good the big red button has yet to be pushed as it gives time to ensure the right people are in the right place to get the best we can. You are also correct that nothing is set in stone. The way I think this will play out is we will end up with WTO after 2 years but withing 5 years of that will be in a trade deal where we get free trade for some concessions over access etc.
In some ways this may not be such a bad thing as it will crystalise how much trade we do with the EU and it also levels the playing field. The only bad thing is it is likely to have further costs associated with it in terms of impact to our economy.
I suspect you may be broadly correct (including the prediction on the impact. Albeit I think that will be short term - after that who knows, but I'm confident we'll be in a good position if we work hard at it).I agree with you in broad terms Murph - particularly about entering negotiations in a considered way.
For this reason I think its good the big red button has yet to be pushed as it gives time to ensure the right people are in the right place to get the best we can. You are also correct that nothing is set in stone. The way I think this will play out is we will end up with WTO after 2 years but withing 5 years of that will be in a trade deal where we get free trade for some concessions over access etc.
In some ways this may not be such a bad thing as it will crystalise how much trade we do with the EU and it also levels the playing field. The only bad thing is it is likely to have further costs associated with it in terms of impact to our economy.
I actually think some things will get a deal cut within 2yrs. Largely depends on how many strings the EU attach to each element, and if we've learnt anything it's that the EU love string.
One of the key things I'm interested in seeing is what the EU budget position is for the coming few years and what the projected contributions are expected to be in the run up to us exiting and for a little while thereafter. I can see a lot of angst on that front, especially while we remain a member. I believe they were due to announce budgets around now so shouldn't have long to wait.
It'll all be fun to watch
dazwalsh said:
Assuming there is no sudden stab in the back for democracy with a second referendum we now need to get the best possible deal for the UK.
Merkel has already confirmed we cant have the juicy bits without the obligations so are we going to have to stomach a good bit of compromise. Free movement of people? EU contributions?
Hope this thread doesnt get shut down as its not really about the referendum more the future negotiations.
Here's a good starting point: how many experienced trade negotiators do we have?Merkel has already confirmed we cant have the juicy bits without the obligations so are we going to have to stomach a good bit of compromise. Free movement of people? EU contributions?
Hope this thread doesnt get shut down as its not really about the referendum more the future negotiations.
According to someone who has made a career doing this, about 25. How many do we need? About 500.
https://next.ft.com/content/3c76e90a-270e-11e6-8ba...
And the ones the EU has are, it seems, really quite good, having had many many years of experience.
Edited by anonymous-user on Wednesday 29th June 14:37
sanf said:
Is the key here what we negotiate with others areas as well?
Plus - I'm pretty sure the Scotland position won't have gone un-noticed in the bargaining stakes. I know it's unlikely that the EU will allow part of a member state to remain (the Spanish would not be impressed), but it is yet another bargaining piece the EU has.
There is a precedent of sorts with Greenland/Denmark. Denmark remained but Greenland left. Its a reversal of UK/Scotland but it is still a possibility. Plus - I'm pretty sure the Scotland position won't have gone un-noticed in the bargaining stakes. I know it's unlikely that the EU will allow part of a member state to remain (the Spanish would not be impressed), but it is yet another bargaining piece the EU has.
s2art said:
jjlynn27 said:
s2art said:
The BDI has instructed Merkel that there will be no tariff barriers. She vill obey orders!
Do you actually believe that BDI can instruct Merkel? It would be like saying CBI can instruct Cameron.I don't get that.
As for BDI and Merkel.
BDI google translate said:
The British citizens have taken the democratic and unequivocal decision that Britain should leave the EU. Although the representatives of the French and German economies accept this decision, they are at the same time fully aware that Europe is thus exposed to great turbulence.
MEDEF, BDI and BDA see it as their duty now to do everything in its power to mobilize our European special forces. Europe must firmly hold together, Confidence touch and go on the offensive.
The Franco-German motor of European integration is now more than ever. Its historical force to unite Europe through reconciliation and the common will to peace, prosperity and social security for the peoples and societies must be rekindled. The task is to set the right priorities now for further European integration in key areas and simultaneously to exercise restraint in small things that can be solved at national level better.
They flatly denied Boris claim.MEDEF, BDI and BDA see it as their duty now to do everything in its power to mobilize our European special forces. Europe must firmly hold together, Confidence touch and go on the offensive.
The Franco-German motor of European integration is now more than ever. Its historical force to unite Europe through reconciliation and the common will to peace, prosperity and social security for the peoples and societies must be rekindled. The task is to set the right priorities now for further European integration in key areas and simultaneously to exercise restraint in small things that can be solved at national level better.
mkt access vs free movement of people.
mirror of the referendum issues: economy vs immigration.
wonder what will win this time....
meanwhile, my jammy mate's wife works for astra zeneca as a scientist. she's had chat with bosses today with offer of relocating to switzerland/sweden due to vote out.
mirror of the referendum issues: economy vs immigration.
wonder what will win this time....
meanwhile, my jammy mate's wife works for astra zeneca as a scientist. she's had chat with bosses today with offer of relocating to switzerland/sweden due to vote out.
Murph7355 said:
I suspect you may be broadly correct (including the prediction on the impact. Albeit I think that will be short term - after that who knows, but I'm confident we'll be in a good position if we work hard at it).
I actually think some things will get a deal cut within 2yrs. Largely depends on how many strings the EU attach to each element, and if we've learnt anything it's that the EU love string.
One of the key things I'm interested in seeing is what the EU budget position is for the coming few years and what the projected contributions are expected to be in the run up to us exiting and for a little while thereafter. I can see a lot of angst on that front, especially while we remain a member. I believe they were due to announce budgets around now so shouldn't have long to wait.
It'll all be fun to watch
Murph, I actually think some things will get a deal cut within 2yrs. Largely depends on how many strings the EU attach to each element, and if we've learnt anything it's that the EU love string.
One of the key things I'm interested in seeing is what the EU budget position is for the coming few years and what the projected contributions are expected to be in the run up to us exiting and for a little while thereafter. I can see a lot of angst on that front, especially while we remain a member. I believe they were due to announce budgets around now so shouldn't have long to wait.
It'll all be fun to watch
You mention this 'work hard at it' numerous times. What do you mean by that?
kurt535 said:
meanwhile, my jammy mate's wife works for astra zeneca as a scientist. she's had chat with bosses today with offer of relocating to switzerland/sweden due to vote out.
If she goes she'll need a massive pay rise just to match the cost of living - certainly in Switzerland. Your mate will also need to find himself a job, Swedish up to scratch?Greg66 said:
jjlynn27 said:
My hope now is that we get good team of negotiators,
Any ideas where we should start looking? Perhaps sub-contract the negotiations with the Americans to EU negotiators, and sub-contract the negotiations with the EU to American negotiators...
trickywoo said:
kurt535 said:
meanwhile, my jammy mate's wife works for astra zeneca as a scientist. she's had chat with bosses today with offer of relocating to switzerland/sweden due to vote out.
If she goes she'll need a massive pay rise just to match the cost of living - certainly in Switzerland. Your mate will also need to find himself a job, Swedish up to scratch?jjlynn27 said:
You realize that WTO = no passporting?
There is zero chance of the UK just falling back on WTO. If we are going to do that there is no need to do anything for the next 2 years. Also it is not necessarily true that if the UK left the single market it would lose passporting rights. Mifid 2 comes in January 2018 and may mean this is much less of an issue.steveT350C said:
This is a bit like an EU version of Mornington Crescent.It would behave the public and politicians to get behind a solution quickly and with a bit more determination, otherwise no good can come of it.
lostkiwi said:
rdjohn said:
Mrs Merkel is being very disingenuous to the 48% who voted to stay by trying to insist Article 50 is invoked immediately.
I suspect she is just after soundbites for the domestic market. She knows the text of Article 50 and she knows it Brexit not followed constitutional process in the UK yet so is not yet invoked and could be challenged in the courts. What Merkel said very clearly is that "the UK needs time, but we (the EU) cannot also not wait endlessly".
Please get your facts right.
A link : http://www.n-tv.de/politik/Merkel-macht-ein-bissch...
Edited by NAS on Wednesday 29th June 14:46
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