How do we think EU negotiations will go?

[ORD]

I think he often talks sense. But I'm not terribly popular either

[anonymous-user]

Eddie Strohacker said:

alfie2244 said:

Even though the UK only ever voted to join an " economic common market" 40 years ago (no under 60's involved)

Simply untrue, another persistent falsehood endlessly repeated by leavers.

The UK electorate didn't vote to join the EEC, it was taken into the common market by the government of the day. The only previous vote the electorate had was on whether to remain a member of the EEC, 3 years after we had joined.

[alfie2244]

jsf said:

Eddie Strohacker said:

alfie2244 said:

Even though the UK only ever voted to join an " economic common market" 40 years ago (no under 60's involved)

Simply untrue, another persistent falsehood endlessly repeated by leavers.

The UK electorate didn't vote to join the EEC, it was taken into the common market by the government of the day. The only previous vote the electorate had was on whether to remain a member of the EEC, 3 years after we had joined.

Correct.the electorate never voted on it.......in fact had the all Labour MP's voted with the whip or not abstained we wouldn't have gone in at all IIRC.

Unfortunately neither Hansard nor Parliament TV were available at the time for public consumption so the "electorate" didn't have much of an idea of what was going on except what they read in biased media (Express was the only anti but could be wrong)...Oh and I do believe Phil the Greek was on the ball for one of the few times in his life.

[Tuna]

ORD said:

You are of course entitled to your own opinions on the economics of crashing out of the biggest free trade area in the world with no proper transitional arrangements and no replacement deals in place with other countries. You're entitled to those opinions, but they are utterly without value unless they are based on either (1) faith in an expert consensus or at least a respected and well-evidenced viewpoint or (2) your own detailed study and analysis (with the benefit of expertise in the relevant fields). Anything less than that makes you like amateur lawyers pretending to understand how domestic and EU law interact. Putting faith in the leading Brexiteers (who are notoriously dishonest and/or blitheringly stupid) is sheer madness.

Well in my case, one family member worked for a decade for the European Commission, and another worked in international trade between China, Europe and America. I have placed no faith in (nor voted for) the Brexiteers, and not for one moment do I expect them to deliver the land of milk and honey. However, I have equal contempt for people who threaten doom and disaster without being able to provide a plausible mechanism for a collapse in trade.

Above all, I do not trust anyone who talks in absolutes and certainties.

[ORD]

Tuna said:

ORD said:

You are of course entitled to your own opinions on the economics of crashing out of the biggest free trade area in the world with no proper transitional arrangements and no replacement deals in place with other countries. You're entitled to those opinions, but they are utterly without value unless they are based on either (1) faith in an expert consensus or at least a respected and well-evidenced viewpoint or (2) your own detailed study and analysis (with the benefit of expertise in the relevant fields). Anything less than that makes you like amateur lawyers pretending to understand how domestic and EU law interact. Putting faith in the leading Brexiteers (who are notoriously dishonest and/or blitheringly stupid) is sheer madness.

Well in my case, one family member worked for a decade for the European Commission, and another worked in international trade between China, Europe and America. I have placed no faith in (nor voted for) the Brexiteers, and not for one moment do I expect them to deliver the land of milk and honey. However, I have equal contempt for people who threaten doom and disaster without being able to provide a plausible mechanism for a collapse in trade.

Above all, I do not trust anyone who talks in absolutes and certainties.

That would make a lot of sense if it wasn't so blindingly obvious why there will be a substantial reduction in benefits of trade with the EU. We are, almost by definition, increasing barriers to trade.

[Troubleatmill]

Leaving the EU will not deliver the land of milk and honey.
But, we will be able to control our own destiny - and sack those who in power who fail to deliver.

How do we get rid of those 5 Presidents again?
Any Remainers - have any idea how we do this?

Why do we have to kowtow to some Walloon farmers who can block deals at the drop of a hat?
Any Remainers - have any idea how we stop a few hundred farmers holding the rest of us to ransom on trade deals?

Why must we be subservient to unelected and unaccountable people?
Any Remainers - can you explain?


I suspect every single Remainer will not answer the above.
I'll get my popcorn.



(edited for typos)

Edited by Troubleatmill on Saturday 22 July 22:39

[jjlynn27]

Troubleatmill said:

Leaving the EU will not deliver the land of milk and honey.
But, we will be able to control our own destiny - and sack those who in power who fail to deliver.

How do we get rid of those 5 Presidents again?
Any Remainers - have any idea how we do this?

Why do we have to kowtow to some Walloon farmers what can block deals at the drop of a hat?
Any Remainers - have any idea how we stop a few hundred farmers holding the rest of us to ransom on trade deals?

Why must we be subservient to unelected and unaccountable people?
Any Remainers - can you explain?


I suspect every single Remainer will not answer the above.
I'll get my popcorn.

There is nothing to answer. You sound like a broken post-war soviet propaganda record.
You might as well come with subtitles.

[Murph7355]

DELETED: Comment made by a member who's account has been deleted.

As someone who is not getting involved in the politics of it anymore, I hope you also laid out the other ways "it could possibly go"

[alfie2244]

jjlynn27 said:

Troubleatmill said:

Leaving the EU will not deliver the land of milk and honey.
But, we will be able to control our own destiny - and sack those who in power who fail to deliver.

How do we get rid of those 5 Presidents again?
Any Remainers - have any idea how we do this?

Why do we have to kowtow to some Walloon farmers what can block deals at the drop of a hat?
Any Remainers - have any idea how we stop a few hundred farmers holding the rest of us to ransom on trade deals?

Why must we be subservient to unelected and unaccountable people?
Any Remainers - can you explain?


I suspect every single Remainer will not answer the above.
I'll get my popcorn.

There is nothing to answer. You sound like a broken post-war soviet propaganda record.
You might as well come with subtitles.

What a bizarre thing to say.................familiar with such records are you?

[///ajd]

ORD said:

I think he often talks sense. But I'm not terribly popular either

You talk a lot of sense yourself.

I notice it is getting more common here, in amongst the unrelenting blind faith.

I guess I'll just have to live with being a "laughing stock" for those determined to insist WTO and hard brexit is no big deal and a walk in the park (or is it a moon landing?), whilst jobs being leeched out of the UK on a weekly basis is "just a scratch" as we doggedly pursue the need to "take back control" from our EU oppressive evil punishment overlords (I mean can they hear themselves?).

I think I'll cope.

[Troubleatmill]

///ajd said:

You talk a lot of sense yourself.

I notice it is getting more common here, in amongst the unrelenting blind faith.

I guess I'll just have to live with being a "laughing stock" for those determined to insist WTO and hard brexit is no big deal and a walk in the park (or is it a moon landing?), whilst jobs being leeched out of the UK on a weekly basis is "just a scratch" as we doggedly pursue the need to "take back control" from our EU oppressive evil punishment overlords (I mean can they hear themselves?).

I think I'll cope.

You could try answering these
How do we get rid of those 5 Presidents again?
Any Remainers - have any idea how we do this?

Why do we have to kowtow to some Walloon farmers what can block deals at the drop of a hat?
Any Remainers - have any idea how we stop a few hundred farmers holding the rest of us to ransom on trade deals?

Why must we be subservient to unelected and unaccountable people?
Any Remainers - can you explain?

[Murph7355]

///ajd said:

...whilst jobs being leeched out of the UK on a weekly basis...

What's the net number now on the ajdometer?

[Wiccan of Darkness]

turbobloke said:

jsf said:

///ajd said:

Ha ha!

Not at all. But you do it seems.

By your standards, the people voted for Hitler, and they should have stuck with him as that was the will of the people.

So funny to see selective democracy at play.

The German people did stick with him, right until the time he committed suicide when he realised the war was lost.

Indeed, nothing 'so funny' anywhere in sight.

Godwins law. We have a winner.

[alfie2244]

Wiccan of Darkness said:

turbobloke said:

jsf said:

///ajd said:

Ha ha!

Not at all. But you do it seems.

By your standards, the people voted for Hitler, and they should have stuck with him as that was the will of the people.

So funny to see selective democracy at play.

The German people did stick with him, right until the time he committed suicide when he realised the war was lost.

Indeed, nothing 'so funny' anywhere in sight.

Godwins law. We have a winner.

It's only slasher...............nobody takes him seriously.........deep down he is quite a sweetie really albeit a bit nerdy..........bless his little cotton socks.

[Dr Jekyll]

ORD said:

That would make a lot of sense if it wasn't so blindingly obvious why there will be a substantial reduction in benefits of trade with the EU. We are, almost by definition, increasing barriers to trade.

No, the EU is a barrier to trade with the ROW and we are lifting that while also trying to get the best possible deal with the EU. If the EU wants to erect barriers that's up to them, but would show that they are far from being a free trade organisation.

[PurpleMoonlight]

Dr Jekyll said:

No, the EU is a barrier to trade with the ROW and we are lifting that while also trying to get the best possible deal with the EU. If the EU wants to erect barriers that's up to them, but would show that they are far from being a free trade organisation.

And despite that we manage to trade more with the ROW than we do with the EU.

It remains to be seen whether or not we will lift any barriers.

Edited by PurpleMoonlight on Sunday 23 July 07:41

[Murph7355]

PurpleMoonlight said:

And despite that we manage to trade more with the ROW than we do with the EU.

It remains to be seen whether or not we will lift any barriers.

The amusing thing with all these arguments is that they can be used both ways...

So a nation can thrive from a trading point of view outside of a SM/CU.... therefore what's the problem with a similar arrangement with the EU?

And if it's better to have a FTA(/eased friction at borders), why not put yourself in a position to do that with the increasing majority of your trade?

We lifted barriers with 8 other nations 44yrs ago easily enough, without any "experience" of such an arrangement. Surely we can do this again? (Hopefully learning the lessons of those 44yrs this time).

[don'tbesilly]

Murph7355 said:

///ajd said:

...whilst jobs being leeched out of the UK on a weekly basis...

What's the net number now on the ajdometer?

The EU propagandist bot in full flow with the usual hysterical hyperbole that hasn't happened.

[///ajd]

The debate really should be about whether there are risks to UK jobs depending on how we brexit. And it seems there are. It seems unclear to me yet whether the following companies are planning these moves not matter what brexit, or whether it will be worse depending on the outcome of negotiations.

That would seem to be worth discussing, and yet all we get back from some (the noisiest) are screams of "no one ever said no jobs would move".

- Should we be protecting our FS industry in negotiations? Are we in these negotiations?
- Are these "small in no. EU related jobs" a minor issue, the thin end of the wedge?
- Can we protect these jobs too by some aspect of a trade agreement? -
- Should that be a priority? Is it?
- I've not seen anything tangible about how the banking sector will be protected in brexit by this govt - is there anything specific announced?

loads from May 2017 said:

MAY 9, 2017
OFFICE MOVES
Hiscox
UK insurer Hiscox will set up its new EU subsidiary in Luxembourg as it plans for life after Brexit, opting for the duchy over Malta. In an announcement on Tuesday, Hiscox said all its European business would be written through its new continental subsidiary, with the Luxembourg base covering compliance, risk and internal audit. Hiscox is at least the third large insurer to have selected Luxembourg as its EU location, following similar commitments by U.S. insurer American International Group and U.S. commercial property insurer FM Global. The Lloyd's of London insurance market, where Hiscox is an underwriter, has chosen Brussels for its new EU outpost.

MAY 5, 2017
JOBS OUTLOOK, MARKET ACCESS WARNING
Goldman Sachs
The head of Goldman Sachs has warned that the City of London “will stall” and may see its position as a global finance centre erode because of Brexit. Lloyd Blankfein, chief executive of Goldman Sachs, said on Friday that the US investment bank does not have any “big plans” to move many of its 6,500 UK-based staff out of the country. But he said “we may have to do things prematurely” if there is no agreement on “an implementation period” of at least two years to allow companies to adjust to the outcome of Brexit negotiations.


MAY 3, 2017
OFFICE MOVES, JOB CUTS
JPMorgan Chase said that it was planning to move “hundreds of people in the short term” from the UK to its three other European subsidiaries in Frankfurt, Luxembourg and Dublin.

OFFICE MOVES
Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered has announced plans to establish a new EU subsidiary in Frankfurt, becoming one of the first banks to select Germany’s main financial centre as its alternative European hub to cope with the disruption of Brexit.

APRIL 28, 2017
JOB CUTS, OUTLOOK WARNING
UBS
International banks may be forced to make “bigger plans” to move operations from the UK after Brexit if the UK does not do more to help them, UBS chief executive Sergio Ermotti warned.He reiterated previous comments that UBS would take a final decision on its Brexit strategy by “the end of summer, the beginning of fall”. The bank has previously said it might have to move 1,500 staff out of the UK because of Brexit.

APRIL 26, 2017
JOB CUTS, MARKET ACCESS WARNING
Deutsche Bank
A senior Deutsche Bank executive has warned that nearly half the German lender’s 9,000 staff in the UK could be forced to leave the country under pressure from regulators because of Brexit. Ms Matherat, a former deputy director-general at the French central bank who joined Deutsche three years ago, told a conference in Frankfurt that 4,000 staff could be forced to relocate to keep serving EU-based clients if the UK lost access to the European single market.

APRIL 16, 2017
OFFICE MOVES
MJ Hudson
The UK’s decision to leave the EU has spurred a leading private equity law firm to move 10 per cent of its staff out of London in favour of Luxembourg, further compounding fears for the long-term future of the buyout industry. MJ Hudson, a legal firm that advises private equity groups, has revealed it is moving 15 people to the principality within the next 12 months as it seeks ways to continue trading with Europe in the event of a hard Brexit.

MARCH 30, 2017
OFFICE MOVES, JOBS OUTLOOK
JPMorgan is in talks to buy a new building in Dublin, but has told London staff it will not “rush into any decisions” on how it will adjust its operations after Brexit. Bloomberg reported that the US bank was in talks to buy a 130,000 sq ft office in the centre of the Irish capital that could accommodate about 1,000 people.

(PS jsf brought Hitler into a brexit context, so any Godwin cards need to be waved in that direction.)

Re - the questions on e.g. how do we get rid of 5 presidents. Why does the UK need to get rid of them? How are they affecting you personally? This is a Farage type non-question, designed to appeal to those who seem to think it makes sense (ooh lots of foreign eurocrats = must be bad), presumably as it will only be considered on a superficial level.

Edited by ///ajd on Sunday 23 July 09:50

[jonnyb]

Troubleatmill said:

///ajd said:

You talk a lot of sense yourself.

I notice it is getting more common here, in amongst the unrelenting blind faith.

I guess I'll just have to live with being a "laughing stock" for those determined to insist WTO and hard brexit is no big deal and a walk in the park (or is it a moon landing?), whilst jobs being leeched out of the UK on a weekly basis is "just a scratch" as we doggedly pursue the need to "take back control" from our EU oppressive evil punishment overlords (I mean can they hear themselves?).

I think I'll cope.

You could try answering these
How do we get rid of those 5 Presidents again?
Any Remainers - have any idea how we do this?

Why do we have to kowtow to some Walloon farmers what can block deals at the drop of a hat?
Any Remainers - have any idea how we stop a few hundred farmers holding the rest of us to ransom on trade deals?

Why must we be subservient to unelected and unaccountable people?
Any Remainers - can you explain?

1) no idea why your talking about, can't be bothered to find out either.
2) They weren't Walloon farmers it was an independent parliament of a region of Belgium. Maybe you could go there and point out the failings in their parliamentary set up. I wonder if your attitude would be different if it was Newcastle that had held up proceedings.
3)You are already subservient to unelected and unaccountable people, and will continue to be so even after we leave the EU. At least those that run the EU are either elected or appointed by elected representatives of member states. Unlike our own set up.