How do we think EU negotiations will go?
Discussion
///ajd said:
loafer123 said:
A 5% reduction in EU exports would be ~£12bn.
The UK net contribution is ~£8.6bn.
The reduction of £12bn, assuming profit at 20% of sales and tax at 20% of profits means HMRC would forego £0.24bn of tax revenues, but the loss of sales is not just about profit and it also means a loss of work for employees at the firms losing the equity exports.
Of course, our currency has dropped, so even if the EU places tariffs on our goods, it will still be cheaper now for them to buy them than it was before the Brexit vote.
Don't just focus on tax - its £12Bn of work, salaries, supply chain, income tax, flowing into the wider economy supporting local infra. The UK net contribution is ~£8.6bn.
The reduction of £12bn, assuming profit at 20% of sales and tax at 20% of profits means HMRC would forego £0.24bn of tax revenues, but the loss of sales is not just about profit and it also means a loss of work for employees at the firms losing the equity exports.
Of course, our currency has dropped, so even if the EU places tariffs on our goods, it will still be cheaper now for them to buy them than it was before the Brexit vote.
The impact of closing e.g. a steelworks is felt much more deeply than just the loss of corp tax.
I'm sure you must know this, but your post suggests not.
"...and it also means a loss of work for employees at the firms losing the equity exports."
loafer123 said:
Perhaps you might learn to read.
"...and it also means a loss of work for employees at the firms losing the equity exports."
Yes, so you agree the impact would dwarf our EU costs. "...and it also means a loss of work for employees at the firms losing the equity exports."
Your initial reply seemed to want to downplay the impact, but I'm glad you do understand the wider implications.
///ajd said:
loafer123 said:
Perhaps you might learn to read.
"...and it also means a loss of work for employees at the firms losing the equity exports."
Yes, so you agree the impact would dwarf our EU costs. "...and it also means a loss of work for employees at the firms losing the equity exports."
Your initial reply seemed to want to downplay the impact, but I'm glad you do understand the wider implications.
I certainly agree there will be an impact outside pure corporation tax revenues, but if you take tax as a proportion of GDP as a proxy for impact, which includes income tax, VAT etc, exports to the EU will have to drop by over 10% before the cost is greater than our net contribution.
Perhaps you should do some research before making assumptions.
Dr Jekyll said:
Getting cheap beef sounds a good deal to me.
Can you really not understand that the benefit of trade is imports?
It is one benefit for consumers, but not necessarily for our producers/exporters.Can you really not understand that the benefit of trade is imports?
Our producers/exporters (inc services) are the engine of our economy.
Any examples yet of what these Foxy trade deals will do for our exporters?
It is taking a while to see any examples, and yet there are many posters here crying about how good these deals will be. Its not just cheaper wine I'm sure. I'm expecting there to be some good examples I will probably agree with where we can boost our own industy - what are they and with which countries (and what are the current barriers?).
///ajd said:
It is one benefit for consumers, but not necessarily for our producers/exporters.
Our producers/exporters (inc services) are the engine of our economy.
Any examples yet of what these Foxy trade deals will do for our exporters?
It is taking a while to see any examples, and yet there are many posters here crying about how good these deals will be. Its not just cheaper wine I'm sure. I'm expecting there to be some good examples I will probably agree with where we can boost our own industy - what are they and with which countries (and what are the current barriers?).
Except that the reason we want to export is to buy imports, and in any case our exporters benefit from cheaper raw materials, components, and machinery.Our producers/exporters (inc services) are the engine of our economy.
Any examples yet of what these Foxy trade deals will do for our exporters?
It is taking a while to see any examples, and yet there are many posters here crying about how good these deals will be. Its not just cheaper wine I'm sure. I'm expecting there to be some good examples I will probably agree with where we can boost our own industy - what are they and with which countries (and what are the current barriers?).
Trade is good.
Free(er) trade is better.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is an ignoramus.
Edited by Dr Jekyll on Sunday 23 July 16:32
I am sure you realise that until the UK leaves the Customs Union, we cant sign any trade agreements.
So its going to be quite a while yet before you can expect Fox to be able to show what deals he has managed to reach and the details of those.
What we do know is that there are many countries doing the groundwork with the UK to enable a FTA once we are in a position to do so, that's the job Fox has currently, doing the groundwork for the future.
History shows that for a TA to work, it has to be beneficial for both parties.
Why do you think that isn't the case slasher?
So its going to be quite a while yet before you can expect Fox to be able to show what deals he has managed to reach and the details of those.
What we do know is that there are many countries doing the groundwork with the UK to enable a FTA once we are in a position to do so, that's the job Fox has currently, doing the groundwork for the future.
History shows that for a TA to work, it has to be beneficial for both parties.
Why do you think that isn't the case slasher?
I am in Corfuatthe moment and speaking with a few Greek people they wish that they had a chance to vote on leaving the EU. As they see it the Germans tried to make them subjects by force and now are doing the same by economics.
They feel that they are being forced to accept what they do not want and have no say on anything of rel matter now.
With youth unemployment high, across Greece, they are taking more economic migrants than ever and no one seems to want to help in Kos for example, with the huge numbers they are seeing.
They accept that there is a need to pay their taxes, something they have avoided for years and to reform but it would be worth it to get back control that others now have.
They understand that we are to be punished as keeping the EU together is all that others want. Tensions are growing in these southern states as more people arrive in Italy and countries like Hungary refuse to accept their quota.
We will sort things out and for sure normal people do not see us as stupid for wanting out.
They feel that they are being forced to accept what they do not want and have no say on anything of rel matter now.
With youth unemployment high, across Greece, they are taking more economic migrants than ever and no one seems to want to help in Kos for example, with the huge numbers they are seeing.
They accept that there is a need to pay their taxes, something they have avoided for years and to reform but it would be worth it to get back control that others now have.
They understand that we are to be punished as keeping the EU together is all that others want. Tensions are growing in these southern states as more people arrive in Italy and countries like Hungary refuse to accept their quota.
We will sort things out and for sure normal people do not see us as stupid for wanting out.
Dr Jekyll said:
Except that the reason we want to export is to buy imports, and in any case our exporters benefit from cheaper raw materials, components, and machinery.
Trade is good.
Free(er) trade is better.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is an ignoramus.
I'm not arguing against freer trade - I'm asking for examples that will help our producers/exporters.Trade is good.
Free(er) trade is better.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is an ignoramus.
Edited by Dr Jekyll on Sunday 23 July 16:32
Still no examples for exports then. Even for where an imported part might reduce the content cost of an export.
If its just importing cheaper stuff - any examples of that? Beef is just a consumer benefit, possibly pushing thousands of UK beef farmers out of business.
Edited by ///ajd on Sunday 23 July 16:58
loafer123 said:
No, I don't agree it will "dwarf our EU costs".
I certainly agree there will be an impact outside pure corporation tax revenues, but if you take tax as a proportion of GDP as a proxy for impact, which includes income tax, VAT etc, exports to the EU will have to drop by over 10% before the cost is greater than our net contribution.
Perhaps you should do some research before making assumptions.
Just can't keep it polite, a sign you know my case was more compelling. I certainly agree there will be an impact outside pure corporation tax revenues, but if you take tax as a proportion of GDP as a proxy for impact, which includes income tax, VAT etc, exports to the EU will have to drop by over 10% before the cost is greater than our net contribution.
Perhaps you should do some research before making assumptions.
///ajd said:
loafer123 said:
No, I don't agree it will "dwarf our EU costs".
I certainly agree there will be an impact outside pure corporation tax revenues, but if you take tax as a proportion of GDP as a proxy for impact, which includes income tax, VAT etc, exports to the EU will have to drop by over 10% before the cost is greater than our net contribution.
Perhaps you should do some research before making assumptions.
Just can't keep it polite, a sign you know my case was more compelling. I certainly agree there will be an impact outside pure corporation tax revenues, but if you take tax as a proportion of GDP as a proxy for impact, which includes income tax, VAT etc, exports to the EU will have to drop by over 10% before the cost is greater than our net contribution.
Perhaps you should do some research before making assumptions.
I can tell, because it happens a lot.
You make me laugh, you seriously do.
spaximus said:
I am in Corfuatthe moment and speaking with a few Greek people they wish that they had a chance to vote on leaving the EU. As they see it the Germans tried to make them subjects by force and now are doing the same by economics.
They feel that they are being forced to accept what they do not want and have no say on anything of rel matter now.
With youth unemployment high, across Greece, they are taking more economic migrants than ever and no one seems to want to help in Kos for example, with the huge numbers they are seeing.
They accept that there is a need to pay their taxes, something they have avoided for years and to reform but it would be worth it to get back control that others now have.
They understand that we are to be punished as keeping the EU together is all that others want. Tensions are growing in these southern states as more people arrive in Italy and countries like Hungary refuse to accept their quota.
We will sort things out and for sure normal people do not see us as stupid for wanting out.
But ajd and Ord don't give a sThey feel that they are being forced to accept what they do not want and have no say on anything of rel matter now.
With youth unemployment high, across Greece, they are taking more economic migrants than ever and no one seems to want to help in Kos for example, with the huge numbers they are seeing.
They accept that there is a need to pay their taxes, something they have avoided for years and to reform but it would be worth it to get back control that others now have.
They understand that we are to be punished as keeping the EU together is all that others want. Tensions are growing in these southern states as more people arrive in Italy and countries like Hungary refuse to accept their quota.
We will sort things out and for sure normal people do not see us as stupid for wanting out.
t about the Greeks etc, as long as the project rolls on everything is great,sod 'em they brought it on themselves.Dr Jekyll said:
///ajd said:
Donkey Of The Damned said:
I suspect something to do with beef will be high up on the Yanks' wish list. With the end of EU subsidies for British farmers and then direct competition with US mega ranches who can produce beef for a fraction of the cost, I have a feeling our farmers are in for a tougher time than anything our fishermen have been through.
That is just dropping tariffs to allow cheap imports.Where is the drive to reduce the tariffs applying to our goods to drive up our exports? E.g. get RR Ghost imports to India zero rated to boost sales. That sort of thing.
Any examples? Foxy must have loads of things like that on his wish list, otherwise how are these trade deals good for UK industry? Its not just to import cheaper widgets to put in our products to re export, is it.
Can you really not understand that the benefit of trade is imports?
The wailing by Brexiters for the fishermen were merely crocodile tears if at the same time they are happy for our beef producers to be massively undercut by another country, lose their subsidies at the same time as finding it harder to sell to its largest foreign market, the Eurozone.
Nothingtoseehere said:
But ajd and Ord don't give a st about the Greeks etc, as long as the project rolls on everything is great,sod 'em they brought it on themselves.
What are you on about?t about the Greeks etc, as long as the project rolls on everything is great,sod 'em they brought it on themselves.I feel terribly sorry for the Greek people. But Brexit will only make their fate worse - a poorer EU will be less willing to forgive debt.
The fact remains that, as the poster observes, Greece has never been a properly functioning economy, and its people have indeed lived vastly beyond their mean. Not to say you cannot feel sympathy for them and think that they shouldn't have been allowed to get jnto such a deplorable state.
///ajd said:
I'm not arguing against freer trade - I'm asking for examples that will help our producers/exporters.
Still no examples for exports then. Even for where it might reduce the content of an export.
If its just importing cheaper stuff - any examples of that? Beef is just a consumer benefit, possibly pushing thousands of UK beef farmers out of business.
What do you mean by just a consumer benefit? Being better off is just a consumer benefit.Still no examples for exports then. Even for where it might reduce the content of an export.
If its just importing cheaper stuff - any examples of that? Beef is just a consumer benefit, possibly pushing thousands of UK beef farmers out of business.
Just as well you weren't in charge of convoys in WW2. "Let all the convoys sink, what do we need imports for anyway, food is just a consumer benefit."
Anyway, examples of imports on which tariffs are paid.
Steel.
Vehicles.
Manufacturing machinery.
Computers.
Sugar.
Electronic components.
ORD said:
What are you on about?
I feel terribly sorry for the Greek people. But Brexit will only make their fate worse - a poorer EU will be less willing to forgive debt.
The fact remains that, as the poster observes, Greece has never been a properly functioning economy, and its people have indeed lived vastly beyond their mean. Not to say you cannot feel sympathy for them and think that they shouldn't have been allowed to get jnto such a deplorable state.
Brexit is the only way Greece have a chance within the EU. I feel terribly sorry for the Greek people. But Brexit will only make their fate worse - a poorer EU will be less willing to forgive debt.
The fact remains that, as the poster observes, Greece has never been a properly functioning economy, and its people have indeed lived vastly beyond their mean. Not to say you cannot feel sympathy for them and think that they shouldn't have been allowed to get jnto such a deplorable state.
It will allow the remaining 27 to agree to closer fiscal integration which we would block and the transfer of monies from the rich countries to the poor ones under a European federal superstate. Without closer integration, Greece has no chance.
ORD said:
What are you on about?
I feel terribly sorry for the Greek people. But Brexit will only make their fate worse - a poorer EU will be less willing to forgive debt.
The fact remains that, as the poster observes, Greece has never been a properly functioning economy, and its people have indeed lived vastly beyond their mean. Not to say you cannot feel sympathy for them and think that they shouldn't have been allowed to get jnto such a deplorable state.
If brexit is going to be so bad for the southern states you would have thought Cameron would come back with quite some concessions.I feel terribly sorry for the Greek people. But Brexit will only make their fate worse - a poorer EU will be less willing to forgive debt.
The fact remains that, as the poster observes, Greece has never been a properly functioning economy, and its people have indeed lived vastly beyond their mean. Not to say you cannot feel sympathy for them and think that they shouldn't have been allowed to get jnto such a deplorable state.
Makes you think they don't give a toss...
loafer123 said:
Every time, when you lose a discussion point, you play the man not the ball.
I can tell, because it happens a lot.
You make me laugh, you seriously do.
Do you not realise how patronising your "do some research" line was? I can tell, because it happens a lot.
You make me laugh, you seriously do.
You tried to dispel the example I gave and implied it was only a 0.24Bn loss.
If you can't keep it civil, don't bother.
Nothingtoseehere said:
But ajd and Ord don't give a st about the Greeks etc, as long as the project rolls on everything is great,sod 'em they brought it on themselves.
Yes, and you care about the Greeks by wanting to take away all UK EU contributions. That can only help.t about the Greeks etc, as long as the project rolls on everything is great,sod 'em they brought it on themselves.And remainers are the selfish ones? LOL.
loafer123 said:
Brexit is the only way Greece have a chance within the EU.
It will allow the remaining 27 to agree to closer fiscal integration which we would block and the transfer of monies from the rich countries to the poor ones under a European federal superstate. Without closer integration, Greece has no chance.
Before the Euro was introduced there was a dispute between those economists (mainly German) who said 'single currency won't work without fiscal union so don't introduce it'. And other (mainly French) who said 'single currency won't work without fiscal union so let's introduce it and this will force everyone to accept fiscal union.'It will allow the remaining 27 to agree to closer fiscal integration which we would block and the transfer of monies from the rich countries to the poor ones under a European federal superstate. Without closer integration, Greece has no chance.
Actually another way for Greece to have a chance would be for Germany to leave the Euro, then the Euro would devalue to a level more appropriate for the siesta states. Won't happen though.
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