How do we think EU negotiations will go?

How do we think EU negotiations will go?

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Hoofy

76,253 posts

281 months

Tuesday 25th July 2017
quotequote all
Eddie Strohacker said:
Hoofy said:
Because it would be nice to fend off some of the negativity. Isn't consumer confidence all about feeling?
Not as much as the pound in your pocket it isn't.
Wishful thinking on my part then? As you were. smile

Robertj21a

16,475 posts

104 months

Wednesday 26th July 2017
quotequote all

I'm hoping that this might be some sort of turning point - on this forum at least - where some reality sets in and various posters accept that we're not actually all going to hell in a handcart just because we are leaving the EU.

There have been a few fairly positive postings on here recently, from unexpected quarters, some better news across the country in general and, I'd like to think, some acceptance that we are not the utterly useless nation that some would like to have us believe.

ORD

18,086 posts

126 months

Wednesday 26th July 2017
quotequote all
We are not useless at all.

But we have huge cultural problems that make the idea of a shift to a lean trading economy very unlikely indeed.

My main concern, however, is acute rather than systemic: I think the Brexit cock up will lead to Corbyn as PM. The devastation that a labour government could bring over one or two parliaments makes all this Brexit stuff seem tiny.

I think that Brexit would, without Corbyn knock a couple of % points off growth for a decade or so (which is very bad), but it might also be good in the longer term. Factor in 5+ years of rampant socialism and anti-business policies and you're talking a major economic collapse that my son will be paying for throughout his life.

Robertj21a

16,475 posts

104 months

Wednesday 26th July 2017
quotequote all
ORD said:
We are not useless at all.

But we have huge cultural problems that make the idea of a shift to a lean trading economy very unlikely indeed.

My main concern, however, is acute rather than systemic: I think the Brexit cock up will lead to Corbyn as PM. The devastation that a labour government could bring over one or two parliaments makes all this Brexit stuff seem tiny.

I think that Brexit would, without Corbyn knock a couple of % points off growth for a decade or so (which is very bad), but it might also be good in the longer term. Factor in 5+ years of rampant socialism and anti-business policies and you're talking a major economic collapse that my son will be paying for throughout his life.
Well said, I totally agree. However, my belief is that Corbyn will not become PM - I just hope that I'm right.

ORD

18,086 posts

126 months

Wednesday 26th July 2017
quotequote all
Me too!

Eddie Strohacker

3,879 posts

85 months

Wednesday 26th July 2017
quotequote all
ORD said:
We are not useless at all.

But we have huge cultural problems that make the idea of a shift to a lean trading economy very unlikely indeed.

My main concern, however, is acute rather than systemic: I think the Brexit cock up will lead to Corbyn as PM. The devastation that a labour government could bring over one or two parliaments makes all this Brexit stuff seem tiny.

I think that Brexit would, without Corbyn knock a couple of % points off growth for a decade or so (which is very bad), but it might also be good in the longer term. Factor in 5+ years of rampant socialism and anti-business policies and you're talking a major economic collapse that my son will be paying for throughout his life.
May has borked any chance of a united front on Brexit, the cabinet is already riven as we've seen with anti Hammond briefings & leaks. The Conservatives will do anything in the short term to avoid another GE & so the PM is being deployed as a human shield until we're through this negotiation when all bet are off.

Corbyn is the risk, he's demonstrably inadequate & if you listen to his pronouncements on Brexit it's clear he neither understands it nor does anything he stands behind insofar as one can divine, tally with his aims for the youth vote he claims to represent.

A look at the near to middle term landscape with a cold, clear eye gives little comfort for anyone able to dissociate themselves from their ideological burrow on either side of the debate. It's difficult therefore to take optimism from the picture even before you take into account the hapless approach to negotiations by the Government team and the arbitrary counter productive time limits imposed by the EU.

ORD

18,086 posts

126 months

Wednesday 26th July 2017
quotequote all
Labour's position on Brexit makes perfect sense in party political terms. It's just an utter disaster for the country.

Eddie Strohacker

3,879 posts

85 months

Wednesday 26th July 2017
quotequote all
ORD said:
Labour's position on Brexit makes perfect sense in party political terms. It's just an utter disaster for the country.
If you can spell out their position in clear terms, you're doing better than me. Only on Sunday Corbyn said on TV that the UK has to leave the SM, which is simply not true. I remind that he demanded article 50 be triggered the day after the referendum. He's a mess, putting it kindly.

turbobloke

103,742 posts

259 months

Wednesday 26th July 2017
quotequote all
Eddie Strohacker said:
ORD said:
I think the Brexit cock up will lead to Corbyn as PM.
Corbyn is the risk.
What can he do next time that he hasn't tried and failed with this time?

Bribe students over debt - less likely to succeed now after Cleggesque backtracking from Labour.

Bribe the wider electorate over spunkspending - still won't work as experienced voters, people with enough sense not to fall for this suicide note, will still significantly outnumber those who lack sufficient wisdom.

Appeal to softer socialist principles - this country isn't socialist with a lower or upper case s, it's conservative with a small c.

Continue to court the far left - tiny numbers which offer no hope.

Rely on spin - transparent and doomed to fail again.

Steptoe shot his bolt and missed, he's now out of ammo. With a similar line on Brexit to the Tories, he offers nothing new to gain and as above nothing to fear.



KarlMac

4,457 posts

140 months

Wednesday 26th July 2017
quotequote all
don'tbesilly said:
andymadmak said:
KarlMac said:
The tide starting to turn?

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/832771/Brexit-new...

Ord and AJD need to call the bods at BMW and let them know they're making a massive mistake.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40718892

Remember kids, repeat after me

"The sky is falling in"
"The sky is falling in"
"The sky is falling in"

Edited by KarlMac on Tuesday 25th July 13:55
hehe

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40718892

I can't be arsed to look for it, but I am pretty sure that there was mention of the electric MINI production on one of these Brexit threads a little while ago. Speculation was that the production was to go elsewhere, and of course some of the usual suspects were very quick to leap in and point to the speculation as fact and thence use it as further ammunition against Brexit............
It seems to be a recurring theme of some in the Remain camp that anything that might go wrong is taken as gospel that it will go wrong. Anything possibly positive is ignored. I wonder how they will ignore this piece of news! hehe
I guess Harald Krueger of BMW received the same brown envelope from TM that ///ajd suggested Ghosn of Nissan received back in October 16.

The news seems to have gone unnoticed by most in the remain camp, perhaps the focus is still on the jobs that are apparently being leeched out of the UK on a weekly basis.
Remember when we were told that massive global corporations would all move to Europe because of the lack of cheap labour?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-amaz...

Remember, the sky is falling in.

It staggers me really, when you consider what this country has been through, going all the way back to medieval times, every time we emerge stronger and forged by the struggle. It's a horrible cliche but there's a reason the stiff upper lip exists.

And people think the whole thing will come crumbling down without our European cousins to prop us up. Mind you, they said this after the financial crisis too

Eddie Strohacker

3,879 posts

85 months

Wednesday 26th July 2017
quotequote all
turbobloke said:
What can he do next time that he hasn't tried and failed with this time?

Bribe students over debt - less likely to succeed now after Cleggesque backtracking from Labour.

Bribe the wider electorate over spunkspending - still won't work as experienced voters, people with enough sense not to fall for this suicide note, will still significantly outnumber those who lack sufficient wisdom.

Appeal to softer socialist principles - this country isn't socialist with a lower or upper case s, it's conservative with a small c.

Continue to court the far left - tiny numbers which offer no hope.

Rely on spin - transparent and doomed to fail again.

Steptoe shot his bolt and missed, he's now out of ammo. With a similar line on Brexit to the Tories, he offers nothing new to gain and as above nothing to fear.
Yeah, get back to me when you can do this, I.e never.

Eddie Strohacker said:
A look at the near to middle term landscape with a cold, clear eye gives little comfort for anyone able to dissociate themselves from their ideological burrow.

ORD

18,086 posts

126 months

Wednesday 26th July 2017
quotequote all
turbobloke said:
Eddie Strohacker said:
ORD said:
I think the Brexit cock up will lead to Corbyn as PM.
Corbyn is the risk.
What can he do next time that he hasn't tried and failed with this time?

Bribe students over debt - less likely to succeed now after Cleggesque backtracking from Labour.

Bribe the wider electorate over spunkspending
- still won't work as experienced voters, people with enough sense not to fall for this suicide note, will still significantly outnumber those who lack sufficient wisdom.

Appeal to softer socialist principles - this country isn't socialist with a lower or upper case s, it's conservative with a small c.

Continue to court the far left - tiny numbers which offer no hope.

Rely on spin - transparent and doomed to fail again.

Steptoe shot his bolt and missed, he's now out of ammo. With a similar line on Brexit to the Tories, he offers nothing new to gain and as above nothing to fear.
Easy. He almost won the last election. He has to add just a couple of percentage points.

In my view, he will get those if we are on our way into a recession and everyone thinks Brexit has been screwed up.

"This Government has never cared about the many, and now it is taking us into a recession. It is time to try something different" = 1 million additional votes.

Pan Pan Pan

9,777 posts

110 months

Wednesday 26th July 2017
quotequote all
KarlMac said:
don'tbesilly said:
andymadmak said:
KarlMac said:
The tide starting to turn?

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/832771/Brexit-new...

Ord and AJD need to call the bods at BMW and let them know they're making a massive mistake.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40718892

Remember kids, repeat after me

"The sky is falling in"
"The sky is falling in"
"The sky is falling in"

Edited by KarlMac on Tuesday 25th July 13:55
hehe

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40718892

I can't be arsed to look for it, but I am pretty sure that there was mention of the electric MINI production on one of these Brexit threads a little while ago. Speculation was that the production was to go elsewhere, and of course some of the usual suspects were very quick to leap in and point to the speculation as fact and thence use it as further ammunition against Brexit............
It seems to be a recurring theme of some in the Remain camp that anything that might go wrong is taken as gospel that it will go wrong. Anything possibly positive is ignored. I wonder how they will ignore this piece of news! hehe
I guess Harald Krueger of BMW received the same brown envelope from TM that ///ajd suggested Ghosn of Nissan received back in October 16.

The news seems to have gone unnoticed by most in the remain camp, perhaps the focus is still on the jobs that are apparently being leeched out of the UK on a weekly basis.
Remember when we were told that massive global corporations would all move to Europe because of the lack of cheap labour?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-amaz...

Remember, the sky is falling in.

It staggers me really, when you consider what this country has been through, going all the way back to medieval times, every time we emerge stronger and forged by the struggle. It's a horrible cliche but there's a reason the stiff upper lip exists.

And people think the whole thing will come crumbling down without our European cousins to prop us up. Mind you, they said this after the financial crisis too
Agreed. Being in the EU didn't provide any help or protection in the 2008 financial crises did it? with many EU states being in a far worse financial position than the UK.
The UK has never received a single net positive penny of funding from the EU in the entire time it has been a member. It has also run a hundreds of billions of pounds trade deficit for all the time it has been in the EU which amounted to 71 billion pounds worth in 2016 alone
So the UK is paying the EU billions of pounds a year just to allow EU countries to sell more into the UK, than the UK is able to sell into the EU, and getting nothing whatsoever back from the EU for the `privelege' except perhaps lorry loads of crippling, expensive, often daft EU legislation, Uncontrolled mostly one way immigration (3.3 million EU nationals have moved into the 98 thousand square miles of the UK, whereas less than 1 million UK nationals have moved into the entire 3.3 million square miles of the EU in the same period. Lets not forget the seizure by the EEC/EU of 80% of the fish stocks in UK territorial waters for which the UK received no compensation whatsoever. Sounds like a really great deal for the UK doesn't it?

Murph7355

37,651 posts

255 months

Wednesday 26th July 2017
quotequote all
PPP - I've noticed you repeat the net receipts angle a few times. Beware the pedants (like me smile)...

We were actually net recipients in.... 1975 (coincidence?).

It wasn't by very much, and I believe more an accounting anomaly rather than by design. But technically we have been net recipients.

1yr out of 44yrs is still not great. But then there are other nations in the same boat.

Edited by Murph7355 on Wednesday 26th July 10:09

Hoofy

76,253 posts

281 months

Wednesday 26th July 2017
quotequote all
Hoofy said:
Eddie Strohacker said:
Hoofy said:
Because it would be nice to fend off some of the negativity. Isn't consumer confidence all about feeling?
Not as much as the pound in your pocket it isn't.
Wishful thinking on my part then? As you were. smile
Eddie, another question - isn't sentiment more than just the physical money in your pocket?

Deptford Draylons

10,480 posts

242 months

Wednesday 26th July 2017
quotequote all
B'stard Child said:
///ajd said:
Genuinely delighted about the e-Mini news.
What no antidote to offset it??

Jaw is on the floor.............
I think he learnt from getting burnt on the Nissan news, that its unwise to talk pure bullst of illegal state aid in an effort to spew as much negativity on PH as possible.

Eddie Strohacker

3,879 posts

85 months

Wednesday 26th July 2017
quotequote all
Deptford Draylons said:
I think he learnt from getting burnt on the Nissan news, that its unwise to talk pure bullst of illegal state aid in an effort to spew as much negativity on PH as possible.
Lol.

Eddie Strohacker

3,879 posts

85 months

Wednesday 26th July 2017
quotequote all
Hoofy said:
Eddie, another question - isn't sentiment more than just the physical money in your pocket?
Yep & you have a good point against which I make no argument save to say no amount of it will pay the mortgage or feed the kids. thumbup

Deptford Draylons

10,480 posts

242 months

Wednesday 26th July 2017
quotequote all
Eddie Strohacker said:
Deptford Draylons said:
I think he learnt from getting burnt on the Nissan news, that its unwise to talk pure bullst of illegal state aid in an effort to spew as much negativity on PH as possible.
Lol.
As per usual, the subject matter is lost in your response. Is this 10 am posting better for you ?

Hoofy

76,253 posts

281 months

Wednesday 26th July 2017
quotequote all
Eddie Strohacker said:
Hoofy said:
Eddie, another question - isn't sentiment more than just the physical money in your pocket?
Yep & you have a good point against which I make no argument save to say no amount of it will pay the mortgage or feed the kids. thumbup
Right. I will shut up, then.
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