How do we think EU negotiations will go?
Discussion
confused_buyer said:
It depends really on whether they can get a new customs checking regime agreed and implemented by March 2019. Most people think that is a bit tight.
It is beyond fanciful. Nobody seriously believes it is possible (except the chronically stupid or delusional).I genuinely have no idea what is going on. Everything I hear about the UK's position is so stupid that I cannot believe it is the truth.
Eddie Strohacker said:
The well worn phrase, sufficient progress springs to mind. I'll tell you why they're saying this today, though - the gov needs to release the Irish border paper tomorrow, that's what's driving this nonsense. I'll give you that, it's one of the few things the EU is wrong on & the UK right, trade should be parallel in the talks. But it isn't. Why isn't it? Because sufficient progress. Why not sufficient progress? Because strong & stable leadership, that's why.
Or because ludicrous claims from EU around the size of what we "owe" and them telling us to tell them (ergo totally undermining the ludicrous claims) and them insisting on ECJ jurisdiction of their citizens living in a non-EU country. This is just negotiation, and the "daftness" is on both sides. You cannot see it because you refuse to accept we're leaving and seemingly, despite the odd bone you throw out, that the EU can do wrong.
You have also decided on the ability of the protagonists before anything material started and don't appear able to back down... Presumably only a "we were only joking and are staying in the EU" will satisfy you. Which makes it pointless engaging.
Yes, we chose to leave so it's up to us (you talk of guff trotted out ad nauseum, suck up your own medicine). However one of the main reasons we are leaving is the EU's ludicrous approach involving the unnecessary overcomplication of everything to meet a political (Pyrrhic) end.
Chicken Licken was an amateur compared to people like you
Murph7355 said:
You have also decided on the ability of the protagonists before anything material started and don't appear able to back down... Presumably only a "we were only joking and are staying in the EU" will satisfy you. Which makes it pointless engaging.
Yes, we chose to leave so it's up to us (you talk of guff trotted out ad nauseum, suck up your own medicine). However one of the main reasons we are leaving is the EU's ludicrous approach involving the unnecessary overcomplication of everything to meet a political (Pyrrhic) end.
Chicken Licken was an amateur compared to people like you
No Murph, I'm not backing down because I can't accept something, You would note if you cared to see, I conceded the point on parallel talks in my next post. Rather, when you respond by saying I'm bleating, it gets my back up. Pretty simple concept really, take as you find.Yes, we chose to leave so it's up to us (you talk of guff trotted out ad nauseum, suck up your own medicine). However one of the main reasons we are leaving is the EU's ludicrous approach involving the unnecessary overcomplication of everything to meet a political (Pyrrhic) end.
Chicken Licken was an amateur compared to people like you
As for guff - you're doing it again btw - I see your answer amounts to suck it up, you lost with a wowee it's complicated tacked on the end. Yes it is, maybe if you kept up with the issues, you wouldn't have to resort to standard Brexiteer tropes. Oh well.
confused_buyer said:
It depends really on whether they can get a new customs checking regime agreed and implemented by March 2019. Most people think that is a bit tight.
Looking at it simply, I guess we would need to double our current capacity.I have no faith in the UK Government delivering anything on time and on budget.
Eddie Strohacker said:
No Murph, I'm not backing down because I can't accept something, You would note if you cared to see, I conceded the point on parallel talks in my next post. Rather, when you respond by saying I'm bleating, it gets my back up. Pretty simple concept really, take as you find.
.
So, would you prefer everything finalised one way or another and implemented in March 2019 or do you think there should be an implementation phase to get everything working?.
You have criticised the Government for proposing an interim phase so I presume you think we should leave the CU completely in March 2019?
Eddie Strohacker said:
confused_buyer said:
We won't be able to implement any trade deals until we leave the customs union. This has never been in doubt or dispute. Whether they can be signed during a proposed transitional would depend on any agreement with the EU. It is subject to negotiation so the Government is quite correct in what they are saying.
The well worn phrase, sufficient progress springs to mind. I'll tell you why they're saying this today, though - the gov needs to release the Irish border paper tomorrow, that's what's driving this nonsense. I'll give you that, it's one of the few things the EU is wrong on & the UK right, trade should be parallel in the talks. But it isn't. Why isn't it? Because sufficient progress. Why not sufficient progress? Because strong & stable leadership, that's why.It is in their interest to try and force two stages of negotiated agreements - first our exit agreement, then our future relationship. We have the cards for the future relationship, and they don't want us to be able to use them when it comes to agreeing the exit agreement.
In parallel, we could quite easily state 'want to retain the trade surplus with us, or easy access to the City for financing your businesses? Then you'll have to drop the exit bill and your ridiculous aims for a two tier legal recourse for residents of the UK'. And then start proper negotiations...
confused_buyer said:
Eddie Strohacker said:
No Murph, I'm not backing down because I can't accept something, You would note if you cared to see, I conceded the point on parallel talks in my next post. Rather, when you respond by saying I'm bleating, it gets my back up. Pretty simple concept really, take as you find.
.
So, would you prefer everything finalised one way or another and implemented in March 2019 or do you think there should be an implementation phase to get everything working?.
You have criticised the Government for proposing an interim phase so I presume you think we should leave the CU completely in March 2019?
k ! confused_buyer said:
Eddie Strohacker said:
No Murph, I'm not backing down because I can't accept something, You would note if you cared to see, I conceded the point on parallel talks in my next post. Rather, when you respond by saying I'm bleating, it gets my back up. Pretty simple concept really, take as you find.
.
So, would you prefer everything finalised one way or another and implemented in March 2019 or do you think there should be an implementation phase to get everything working?.
You have criticised the Government for proposing an interim phase so I presume you think we should leave the CU completely in March 2019?
What is being discussed is what system will be used at the point we leave the Customs Union.
What do you propose when we leave the Customs Union Eddie? Because we are leaving it as a matter of treaty fact. Staying in the EU isn't an option, so what is it you suggest?
jsf said:
Just a point of note, we are leaving the customs union in March, assuming the negotiations aren't extended beyond the initial timescale, that is what happens when you leave the EU.
What is being discussed is what system will be used at the point we leave the Customs Union.
What do you propose when we leave the Customs Union Eddie? Because we are leaving it as a matter of treaty fact. Staying in the EU isn't an option, so what is it you suggest?
WTO The UK is not currently a member. If it wished to become one - which it can only do after Mar 2019 - it must apply just as other countries and negotiate.What is being discussed is what system will be used at the point we leave the Customs Union.
What do you propose when we leave the Customs Union Eddie? Because we are leaving it as a matter of treaty fact. Staying in the EU isn't an option, so what is it you suggest?
It must obtain the agreement of all other current members - 164 to be exact - to it's proposals. This can take years sometimes decades. A list of countries currently going through the process, and their progress can be found on the second link. Algeria, for example started in 1995.
https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/acc_e/acc_e.h...
https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/acc_e/status_...
Roboraver said:
WTO The UK is not currently a member. If it wished to become one - which it can only do after Mar 2019 - it must apply just as other countries and negotiate.
It must obtain the agreement of all other current members - 164 to be exact - to it's proposals. This can take years sometimes decades. A list of countries currently going through the process, and their progress can be found on the second link. Algeria, for example started in 1995.
https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/acc_e/acc_e.h...
https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/acc_e/status_...
The UK is a member.It must obtain the agreement of all other current members - 164 to be exact - to it's proposals. This can take years sometimes decades. A list of countries currently going through the process, and their progress can be found on the second link. Algeria, for example started in 1995.
https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/acc_e/acc_e.h...
https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/acc_e/status_...
https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/countries_e/u...
Roboraver said:
WTO The UK is not currently a member.
Wrong. https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/countries_e/u...Roboraver said:
jsf said:
Just a point of note, we are leaving the customs union in March, assuming the negotiations aren't extended beyond the initial timescale, that is what happens when you leave the EU.
What is being discussed is what system will be used at the point we leave the Customs Union.
What do you propose when we leave the Customs Union Eddie? Because we are leaving it as a matter of treaty fact. Staying in the EU isn't an option, so what is it you suggest?
WTO The UK is not currently a member. If it wished to become one - which it can only do after Mar 2019 - it must apply just as other countries and negotiate.What is being discussed is what system will be used at the point we leave the Customs Union.
What do you propose when we leave the Customs Union Eddie? Because we are leaving it as a matter of treaty fact. Staying in the EU isn't an option, so what is it you suggest?
It must obtain the agreement of all other current members - 164 to be exact - to it's proposals. This can take years sometimes decades. A list of countries currently going through the process, and their progress can be found on the second link. Algeria, for example started in 1995.
https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/acc_e/acc_e.h...
https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/acc_e/status_...
https://www.whitecase.com/publications/alert/uk-an...
"The UK is a member of the WTO in its own right, having cofounded the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), the WTO’s predecessor, with other 22 countries in 1948. It does not have to reapply to join the WTO once it leaves the EU."
http://www.cityam.com/252313/brexit-fast-and-smoot...
"Roberto Azevedo vowed that the UK would not face a vacuum or a disruption when it leaves the bloc and it would continue to be a member of the WTO."
jsf said:
Just a point of note, we are leaving the customs union in March, assuming the negotiations aren't extended beyond the initial timescale, that is what happens when you leave the EU.
What is being discussed is what system will be used at the point we leave the Customs Union.
What do you propose when we leave the Customs Union Eddie? Because we are leaving it as a matter of treaty fact. Staying in the EU isn't an option, so what is it you suggest?
I'm not making a suggestion? I'm commenting on the subject of this thread. However, Robraver above answers your query. In short, there is no option that can make Brexit a trade success with Europe above & beyond what exists today. None whatsoever. You either remain & enjoy the benefits of the single market & customs union or you leave & you don't. What is being discussed is what system will be used at the point we leave the Customs Union.
What do you propose when we leave the Customs Union Eddie? Because we are leaving it as a matter of treaty fact. Staying in the EU isn't an option, so what is it you suggest?
They're not in la la land, there will be an arrangement. Eventually. But it will not & cannot be superior to what we enjoy now. Unless that is you Brexit boys are willing to suck up the ECJ & all that jazz. Are you?
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