How do we think EU negotiations will go?
Discussion
rs1952 said:
Right. I see. If a section of the media or a section of the population don't agree with a certain political lime then they are being unpatriotic. "Enemies of the People" perhaps?
There are certainly plenty of examples around the world where disagreeing with the party line is definitely a bad idea. Zimbabwe and North Korea spring to mind.
You haven't thought this through, have you?
Being against the national interest (not supporting one's country) is unpatriotic, this is a plain fact.There are certainly plenty of examples around the world where disagreeing with the party line is definitely a bad idea. Zimbabwe and North Korea spring to mind.
You haven't thought this through, have you?
The democratic process of the UK decided to leave the EU. This is now the national interest of the UK and to define the future conditions of the UK's relationship with the EU and the world is also a national interest.
Much of the UK media is blatantly against the above.
You can throw in other elements to create your desired effect in to a typical lefty remoaner angle , but you can not argue the fact stated.
Atomic12C said:
Being against the national interest (not supporting one's country) is unpatriotic, this is a plain fact.
The democratic process of the UK decided to leave the EU.
The national interest is a matter of conjecture. The Americans voted in Trump more or less. It's tiresome in the extreme to wave this hackneyed old argument about patriotism around, it's been done to death - I'm sorry you can't accept a very narrow leave victory will come with a lot of argument & debate but it's nevertheless an actual fact rather than one of your 'plain' facts. You won, get over it.The democratic process of the UK decided to leave the EU.
confused_buyer said:
loafer123 said:
Latest position paper is suggesting no customs border between NI and RoI, which is something both governments agree on.
Given trade is relatively equal between the two, does it make sense for any tariff imbalance between the two to be settled at governmental level.
In 2015, at an averaged rate of 4%, that would give £200m paid from the UK to RoI, which is relatively modest in the context of the economic and regeneration investments into NI. Furthermore, given the strength of the Euro vs GBP, even that number should be substantially reduced now.
It is not about tariffs. The aim is to have no tariffs. The issue is that if the UK in the long term develops separate customs regime with other countries (e.g. a free trade deal with the USA) then if you have no monitoring goods could be "back doored" into the EU via NI/RoI.Given trade is relatively equal between the two, does it make sense for any tariff imbalance between the two to be settled at governmental level.
In 2015, at an averaged rate of 4%, that would give £200m paid from the UK to RoI, which is relatively modest in the context of the economic and regeneration investments into NI. Furthermore, given the strength of the Euro vs GBP, even that number should be substantially reduced now.
For example, Norway has no tariffs between them and Sweden as they are EEA and therefore full Single Market members. However, EEA countries are not part of the Customs Union and can, and do, operate their own trade policies with non-EU countries. Therefore there has to be customs monitoring as otherwise goods could be shipped into Norway tariff free from countries Norway has a FTA agreement with but not the EU and then into the EU avoiding EU tariffs.
Edited by confused_buyer on Wednesday 16th August 09:25
I was starting from the position that a deal on a FTA cannot be agreed and that tariffs are brought in, i.e. starting from a backstop position in the negotiations.
A FTA would obviate most of the issues.
ORD said:
...
The Government is expressly AGAINST a customs union and remaining in the free market!...
The government has noted it is not seeking these things because the EU's position has consistently been that these things cannot be given if a member state wants no FoM and the ability to negotiate its own trade deals. The Government is expressly AGAINST a customs union and remaining in the free market!...
If the EU had not said those things, the UK government would not be "against" them. Quite the opposite. Same goes for the people in this country.
There are plenty of ways these negotiations can pan out. Semantically it would be possible to group them in the two categories you've noted I suppose. But as we have all been saying, the devil will be in the detail in terms of just how "EU-lite" or "cliff edge" the end result is.
I guarantee people at both extremes of the debate won't like it either way.
Atomic12C said:
Being against the national interest (not supporting one's country) is unpatriotic, this is a plain fact.
The democratic process of the UK decided to leave the EU. This is now the national interest of the UK and to define the future conditions of the UK's relationship with the EU and the world is also a national interest.
What a very odd post. I am proud to be British and as patriotic as the next.The democratic process of the UK decided to leave the EU. This is now the national interest of the UK and to define the future conditions of the UK's relationship with the EU and the world is also a national interest.
Just because a majority decided to leave the EU does not make it the best option for Britain. I would agree it’s in the national interest determine a sensible relationship with the EU.
Which is why it’s not unpatriotic to criticise a Government who clearly has no idea what it is doing.
rs1952 said:
Right. I see. If a section of the media or a section of the population don't agree with a certain political lime then they are being unpatriotic. "Enemies of the People" perhaps?
Whatever your views I can't see how anyone can find anything to praise in any of the UK's media coverage of the whole thing. It is mind numbingly awful which seeks to simply pander to the already set views of it's reader and regurgitate the long established political biases and views of a lot of aged, sour old hack eyed supposed "journalists". Only last weekend the Guardian's 5 (yes, five) lead stories were all doom and gloom disaster and in some cases basically made up stories about Brexit. On the other side the Express was basically implying that we were at (or should be at) War with Germany and once we give Jerry a good kicking they'll come around to our way of thinking. All complete rubbish and all completely bonkers.
I can't think of a single UK bases website or print which will give any proper analysis or reporting in any sort of non-biases way on Brexit. Every single "journalist" is completely incapable it seems of writing in any sort of analytical or intelligent way which might seek to help the reader understand the issues or even perhaps challenge their preconceived views. According to the UK press we'll either be Subsistence Farming by 2022 and generally crawling around in the dirt or running the world through the British Empire Mk 2 and the world will cower at our feet and power. The chances of anything in-between actually happening appear to be zero.
My advice: Ignore all of it. Ignore all the sour old columnists who know nothing except their own prejudices and are incapable of looking at anything intelligently. They're all useless, on both sides.
Mrr T said:
What a very odd post. I am proud to be British and as patriotic as the next.
Just because a majority decided to leave the EU does not make it the best option for Britain. I would agree it’s in the national interest determine a sensible relationship with the EU.
Which is why it’s not unpatriotic to criticise a Government who clearly has no idea what it is doing.
Do you mean the Greek government?Just because a majority decided to leave the EU does not make it the best option for Britain. I would agree it’s in the national interest determine a sensible relationship with the EU.
Which is why it’s not unpatriotic to criticise a Government who clearly has no idea what it is doing.
I would certainly agree that there is a lot of emotion on both sides.
From the perspective of a Remainer, though, it is hardly surprising.
I think the Tory Brexit wet dream is almost certain to destroy the party and leave Jeremy The Actual Communist Corbyn in number 10. Combined with a material economic slow down due to Brexit itself, that is a recipe for a very long and deep recession and insane tax rates. The 1970s but perhaps worse.
The likelihood, in my opinion, is that unless the Tory party wakes up, we are all due to have vastly worse lives and our children are basically screwed (unless they are very young indeed and so wont be grown up until the worst of it is over).
From the perspective of a Remainer, though, it is hardly surprising.
I think the Tory Brexit wet dream is almost certain to destroy the party and leave Jeremy The Actual Communist Corbyn in number 10. Combined with a material economic slow down due to Brexit itself, that is a recipe for a very long and deep recession and insane tax rates. The 1970s but perhaps worse.
The likelihood, in my opinion, is that unless the Tory party wakes up, we are all due to have vastly worse lives and our children are basically screwed (unless they are very young indeed and so wont be grown up until the worst of it is over).
PurpleMoonlight said:
I don't get patriotism.
I don't see why I should blindly support the UK just because I happened to be born here. My mother was Irish my father American by all accounts.
Equally though I don't get the apologists. That group of people for whom there can be no positive outcome in their own country, who are ashamed of their history and still personally take the blame for things their great great grandparents did. They flat out refuse to support their country because it doesn't universally fit their dogmatic political viewpoint.I don't see why I should blindly support the UK just because I happened to be born here. My mother was Irish my father American by all accounts.
There should be a middle ground where we accept the fact that though our country is not the garden of Eden, it is the one place we can actually take responsibility for and - over time - improve. That doesn't mean we have to agree with some common political position, but we should recognise that any country is the sum of its people, however diverse, mad, extreme, educated or otherwise their individual view points are.
ORD said:
The Government is expressly AGAINST a customs union and remaining in the free market!
If you Brexiteers would at least try to keep up with the news, you would see that we face two (and only two) options:
(1) A very hard Brexit with huge economic damage.
(2) A face-saving climbdown of some sort where we agree a position very like membership of the EU but called something else.
It's a stark choice. Once Labour see that advocating option 2 will win them the next election, its Game Over for Brexit nutters but also the whole of the Tory party.
I suspect the final outcome of the negotiations is going to come as a complete surprise to you. If you Brexiteers would at least try to keep up with the news, you would see that we face two (and only two) options:
(1) A very hard Brexit with huge economic damage.
(2) A face-saving climbdown of some sort where we agree a position very like membership of the EU but called something else.
It's a stark choice. Once Labour see that advocating option 2 will win them the next election, its Game Over for Brexit nutters but also the whole of the Tory party.
Tuna said:
Equally though I don't get the apologists. That group of people for whom there can be no positive outcome in their own country, who are ashamed of their history and still personally take the blame for things their great great grandparents did. They flat out refuse to support their country because it doesn't universally fit their dogmatic political viewpoint.
There should be a middle ground where we accept the fact that though our country is not the garden of Eden, it is the one place we can actually take responsibility for and - over time - improve. That doesn't mean we have to agree with some common political position, but we should recognise that any country is the sum of its people, however diverse, mad, extreme, educated or otherwise their individual view points are.
All true.There should be a middle ground where we accept the fact that though our country is not the garden of Eden, it is the one place we can actually take responsibility for and - over time - improve. That doesn't mean we have to agree with some common political position, but we should recognise that any country is the sum of its people, however diverse, mad, extreme, educated or otherwise their individual view points are.
But not even close to an argument that we should all pretend Brexit is not a stupid act of self-harm.
ORD said:
Tuna said:
Equally though I don't get the apologists. That group of people for whom there can be no positive outcome in their own country, who are ashamed of their history and still personally take the blame for things their great great grandparents did. They flat out refuse to support their country because it doesn't universally fit their dogmatic political viewpoint.
There should be a middle ground where we accept the fact that though our country is not the garden of Eden, it is the one place we can actually take responsibility for and - over time - improve. That doesn't mean we have to agree with some common political position, but we should recognise that any country is the sum of its people, however diverse, mad, extreme, educated or otherwise their individual view points are.
All true.There should be a middle ground where we accept the fact that though our country is not the garden of Eden, it is the one place we can actually take responsibility for and - over time - improve. That doesn't mean we have to agree with some common political position, but we should recognise that any country is the sum of its people, however diverse, mad, extreme, educated or otherwise their individual view points are.
But not even close to an argument that we should all pretend Brexit is not a stupid act of self-harm.
Some would say it represents a foolish tactical position and they'd be equally as entitled to their opinion.
Mrr T said:
What a very odd post. I am proud to be British and as patriotic as the next.
Just because a majority decided to leave the EU does not make it the best option for Britain. I would agree it’s in the national interest determine a sensible relationship with the EU.
Which is why it’s not unpatriotic to criticise a Government who clearly has no idea what it is doing.
The government knows what it is doing, it is in a negotiation with the EU to try and get the best arrangements for the future relationship, the status quo is over. This is a two way street and requires both sides to be practical.Just because a majority decided to leave the EU does not make it the best option for Britain. I would agree it’s in the national interest determine a sensible relationship with the EU.
Which is why it’s not unpatriotic to criticise a Government who clearly has no idea what it is doing.
We are going to see plenty more of these issues spun until the end of the process, if there isn't a resolution then we leave with no deal.
If this was business dealing with this, it would be sorted without all this nonsense in the press, but we are dealing with politicians here, so expect more of the same.
Tuna said:
Equally though I don't get the apologists. That group of people for whom there can be no positive outcome in their own country, who are ashamed of their history and still personally take the blame for things their great great grandparents did. They flat out refuse to support their country because it doesn't universally fit their dogmatic political viewpoint.
There should be a middle ground where we accept the fact that though our country is not the garden of Eden, it is the one place we can actually take responsibility for and - over time - improve. That doesn't mean we have to agree with some common political position, but we should recognise that any country is the sum of its people, however diverse, mad, extreme, educated or otherwise their individual view points are.
For better or worse, I consider Brexit a vandalistic act of self harm, grossly oversold to the public, therefore arguing against it is an act of patriotic duty on those terms, no? You can really frame the notion either way, only time will tell who's on the right side of the debate.There should be a middle ground where we accept the fact that though our country is not the garden of Eden, it is the one place we can actually take responsibility for and - over time - improve. That doesn't mean we have to agree with some common political position, but we should recognise that any country is the sum of its people, however diverse, mad, extreme, educated or otherwise their individual view points are.
ORD said:
All true.
But not even close to an argument that we should all pretend Brexit is not a stupid act of self-harm.
That is just your opinion. Others view it as the best thing which has ever happened. For some reason a few people seem utterly unable to look at anything related to this subject without starting and ending from either fixed opinionated position. But not even close to an argument that we should all pretend Brexit is not a stupid act of self-harm.
In reality is it probably neither and 80% of people think it is also something in the middle. Those who can't look at any part or issue of it objectively because of their entrenched yes/no position do not contribute much to any sensible debate.
Eddie Strohacker said:
Tuna said:
Equally though I don't get the apologists. That group of people for whom there can be no positive outcome in their own country, who are ashamed of their history and still personally take the blame for things their great great grandparents did. They flat out refuse to support their country because it doesn't universally fit their dogmatic political viewpoint.
There should be a middle ground where we accept the fact that though our country is not the garden of Eden, it is the one place we can actually take responsibility for and - over time - improve. That doesn't mean we have to agree with some common political position, but we should recognise that any country is the sum of its people, however diverse, mad, extreme, educated or otherwise their individual view points are.
For better or worse, I consider Brexit a vandalistic act of self harm, grossly oversold to the public, therefore arguing against it is an act of patriotic duty on those terms, no? .There should be a middle ground where we accept the fact that though our country is not the garden of Eden, it is the one place we can actually take responsibility for and - over time - improve. That doesn't mean we have to agree with some common political position, but we should recognise that any country is the sum of its people, however diverse, mad, extreme, educated or otherwise their individual view points are.
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