How do we think EU negotiations will go?
Discussion
Murph7355 said:
lostkiwi said:
6th largest now. Since last week France has risen to the 5th spot.
...
Is that an "official" figure or some manner of projection? I'm not convinced there's been an actual shift of 20% in one week as a result of the vote, but happy to be persuaded otherwise ...
European markets have been taking a proper hammering, and they've been reinforcing their love of a good strike/ruck over the last few months.trickywoo said:
Even if there are tariffs aren't they only 3% or thereabouts? Sterling is down more than that so our products will still be the same price to sell.
We buy so much from the EU that it isn't in their interest to put us off.
The UK is in a position of strength and should negotiate as such.
Noticeably more than 3% - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/19/what-wo... says:-We buy so much from the EU that it isn't in their interest to put us off.
The UK is in a position of strength and should negotiate as such.
The UK would pay tariffs on goods and services it exported into the EU, but since the UK would pay ‘most favoured nation’ rates, that would prohibit either side imposing punitive duties and sparking a trade war.
These WTO tariffs range from 32 per cent on wine, to 4.1 per cent on liquefied natural gas, with items like cars (9.8 per cent) and wheat products (12.8 per cent) somewhere in between.
John Springford, an economist with the Centre for European Reform, the total cost of those tariffs would be large, ranging from a 2.2 per cent of GDP (£40 billion) to 9 per cent.
Business for Britain, which campaigns for exit, estimates that at worst, tariffs would cost British exporters just £7.4 billion a year and says the UK would save enough on EU membership fees to be able to compensate exporters for that.
Damian Chalmers, professor of European Union law at the London School of Economics, says the bigger threat to the UK exports would not be from WTO tariffs, but other EU states imposing new regulations and other “non-tariff barriers” to keep UK services out.
jjlynn27 said:
s2art said:
The BDI has instructed Merkel that there will be no tariff barriers. She vill obey orders!
Do you actually believe that BDI can instruct Merkel? It would be like saying CBI can instruct Cameron.Edited by London424 on Wednesday 29th June 14:58
I dont think there'll be much negotiation really, I dont see anyone willing and able enough to go to the EU and tell them this is what's happening.
If there are any, and I think there'll be a general election and a re-referendum before the two years is out, I think whoever tries will come away with a bucket load of s
t and try selling it as a Good Deal that they negotiated hard on
If there are any, and I think there'll be a general election and a re-referendum before the two years is out, I think whoever tries will come away with a bucket load of s
t and try selling it as a Good Deal that they negotiated hard on rscott said:
The UK would pay tariffs on goods and services it exported into the EU...
Once again, you do not pay tariffs on goods you export you pay tariffs on goods you import. Tariffs would make our products more expensive for our customers in the EU to buy and hence less competitive against domestic manufacturers. Then there's the issue of no-tariff barriers such as customs clearance and compliance with various EU regulations.If people can't grasp this basic, fundamental point how on earth can they be relied upon to take a complex decision about, for instance, membership of the EU...
dazwalsh said:
The financial services passportings is a bit of a biggie, how likely are we to get a deal on that if we aren't in the EU? I can see a lot of financial institutions heading over the irish sea to Dublin. God knows how many jobs will go.
For people that haven't heard of this.http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/pra/Pages/authorisa...
I think it's fair to say that the following companies will want access to the UK market:-
AXA, Zurich (currently eligible via the bilateral Swiss EU arrangement), DB, Generali, Swiss Re, Aegon, Munich RE, BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, Santander, Societe Generale, etc.
http://www.relbanks.com/top-european-banks/assets
http://www.relbanks.com/top-insurance-companies/eu...
The key is to not blink first.
London424 said:
jjlynn27 said:
s2art said:
The BDI has instructed Merkel that there will be no tariff barriers. She vill obey orders!
Do you actually believe that BDI can instruct Merkel? It would be like saying CBI can instruct Cameron.Edited by London424 on Wednesday 29th June 14:58
We're clearly going to annoy most of the EU just by failing to submit the Article 50 forms as quickly as they would like. They have also stated that there will be no negotiations whatsoever until the forms are submitted. Why don't we just carry on delaying the submission of the forms until it suits us and/or basic negotiations have taken place ?
Robertj21a said:
We're clearly going to annoy most of the EU just by failing to submit the Article 50 forms as quickly as they would like. They have also stated that there will be no negotiations whatsoever until the forms are submitted. Why don't we just carry on delaying the submission of the forms until it suits us and/or basic negotiations have taken place ?
What you mean like staying in EU until we are sure what we actually want to achieve? I'm not actually sure if you were serious. If I'm due woosh parrot that's fine too.
130R said:
jjlynn27 said:
You realize that WTO = no passporting?
There is zero chance of the UK just falling back on WTO. If we are going to do that there is no need to do anything for the next 2 years. Also it is not necessarily true that if the UK left the single market it would lose passporting rights. Mifid 2 comes in January 2018 and may mean this is much less of an issue.Some interesting opinions here. I'll throw mine into the mix too, and that is economics is not the only factor at play here. The UK has substantial military defence spending and presumably are the USA's biggest ally. As a big part of NATO I can't see the USA being happy with anything that threatens our ability to spend on the defence budget. As such I would not be surprised if John Kerry didn't pop over just to remind the EU and National leaders of that when Brexit was announced.
So I can see lots of bluster but fundamentally it is not in the EU's interests for them to weaken the UK, there is big bogie man out to the east who would just love that
So I can see lots of bluster but fundamentally it is not in the EU's interests for them to weaken the UK, there is big bogie man out to the east who would just love that
Not sure how accurate this is but someone I talked to has been following a Twitter feed.
There's a suggestion that the opening offer from the EU is likely to be EEA with migration control BUT without financial passporting.
The rational is that it's potentially a chance for Germany to do France a favour by building up as a banking centre.
There's a suggestion that the opening offer from the EU is likely to be EEA with migration control BUT without financial passporting.
The rational is that it's potentially a chance for Germany to do France a favour by building up as a banking centre.
Edited by coanda_2013 on Wednesday 29th June 16:02
RYH64E said:
Once again, you do not pay tariffs on goods you export you pay tariffs on goods you import.
Not true. It's perfectly possible to have to pay tariffs on goods you export. I am not aware of any in the UK at the moment but China has used them quite a bit to prevent export of raw foodstuffs. It's a form of protectionism to keep scarce resources in your own country,lostkiwi said:
6th largest now. Since last week France has risen to the 5th spot.
I agree with you in broad terms Murph - particularly about entering negotiations in a considered way.
For this reason I think its good the big red button has yet to be pushed as it gives time to ensure the right people are in the right place to get the best we can. You are also correct that nothing is set in stone. The way I think this will play out is we will end up with WTO after 2 years but withing 5 years of that will be in a trade deal where we get free trade for some concessions over access etc.
In some ways this may not be such a bad thing as it will crystalise how much trade we do with the EU and it also levels the playing field. The only bad thing is it is likely to have further costs associated with it in terms of impact to our economy.
As of now we are down about 0.5% (6297) from the pre referendum FTSE 100 - 6338I agree with you in broad terms Murph - particularly about entering negotiations in a considered way.
For this reason I think its good the big red button has yet to be pushed as it gives time to ensure the right people are in the right place to get the best we can. You are also correct that nothing is set in stone. The way I think this will play out is we will end up with WTO after 2 years but withing 5 years of that will be in a trade deal where we get free trade for some concessions over access etc.
In some ways this may not be such a bad thing as it will crystalise how much trade we do with the EU and it also levels the playing field. The only bad thing is it is likely to have further costs associated with it in terms of impact to our economy.
GBPUSD still down about 10% (but up on day)
Certain some changes but it isn't the end of the world, they seemed to be forecasting a lot worse
coanda_2013 said:
Not sure how accurate this is but someone I talked to has been following a Twitter feed.
There's a suggestion that the opening offer from the EU is EEA with migration control BUT without financial passporting.
The rational is that it's potentially a chance for Germany to do France a favour by building up as a banking centre.
Makes sense to me. The EU will regard this as a once in a lifetime opportunity to displace London as Europe's undisputed financial centre. There's a suggestion that the opening offer from the EU is EEA with migration control BUT without financial passporting.
The rational is that it's potentially a chance for Germany to do France a favour by building up as a banking centre.
Which would be bad for the country. To put the £10-18bn (depending on who you believe) we may have upon leaving the EU in perspective:
cityoflondon.gov.uk said:
What is the contribution of financial services to the UK economy?
The financial services sector as a whole made a total tax contribution of £65.6bn in the tax year to the end of March 2014, representing almost 11.5% of total government tax receipts. This figure includes taxes paid, as well as taxes collected, by the sector.
The financial services sector employs 1.1 million people, representing 3.7% of the UK’s total workforce.
Source: PwC and City of London, Total Tax Contribution of UK Financial Services (seventh edition), December 2014
Financial services represent £26bn or 57.5% of the City's total income (or GVA) 17.1% of London's economy, and the financial services sector in the UK accounts for 7.5% of the total national income of Great Britain. Taken together with professional services, financial services contributed £180bn to the UK economy in 2013, accounting for 11.8% of total output.
Source: Centre for Cities and Cambridge Econometrics, June 2015, and TheCityUK, March 2015.
For more information on the contribution of financial services to the UK, please download 'An indispensable industry' (2mb)
The financial services sector as a whole made a total tax contribution of £65.6bn in the tax year to the end of March 2014, representing almost 11.5% of total government tax receipts. This figure includes taxes paid, as well as taxes collected, by the sector.
The financial services sector employs 1.1 million people, representing 3.7% of the UK’s total workforce.
Source: PwC and City of London, Total Tax Contribution of UK Financial Services (seventh edition), December 2014
Financial services represent £26bn or 57.5% of the City's total income (or GVA) 17.1% of London's economy, and the financial services sector in the UK accounts for 7.5% of the total national income of Great Britain. Taken together with professional services, financial services contributed £180bn to the UK economy in 2013, accounting for 11.8% of total output.
Source: Centre for Cities and Cambridge Econometrics, June 2015, and TheCityUK, March 2015.
For more information on the contribution of financial services to the UK, please download 'An indispensable industry' (2mb)
I was an undecided voter for much of the campaign, after various bits of investigating opted for remain, but was quite agnostic on the outcome. Or so I thought, reading the various threads on PH is quite depressing, about the impending doom and gloom, and this has actually made me feel a little anxious. I've started to move into the, 'hopefully the new PM will call a GE, not invoke article 50 and all be fine' camp. I'd felt in deciding on remain that business was actually trumping democracy a bit, so now relying on the parliamentary part of democracy to change the answer to the referendum seems somehow ok!!
However starting to weigh everything up this afternoon, there are some real unknown factors here - including time. The EU are keen to crack on here and keep control, potentially because the more time that goes by the more that could go wrong, or more unexpected eventualities could happen.
Article 50 does appear to have 1 major draw back - it's totally reliant on the LEAVING member state to invoke it, the other members can't. So when the clock starts ticking can be timed to suit the leaving member. I know uncertainty is never good, but while decisions are not being made things are likely to tick along as normal. We are still a fully fledged paid up member of the EU and free market, and expected to be until we finally leave. Only Cameron said he would invoke Article 50 the following day, but didn't and now much to annoyance of the other leaders has just kicked it down the road a few months ready for the next PM. As far as I'm aware no-one else has offered a timescale. While the lunatics may have taken over the asylum, at this stage they are firmly locked in with the only key to leave when they are ready.
One of the other threads has the comedy EU-Boris phone call script posted, the gist being Boris can't get any info about leaving before invoking article 50. However when reversed the new PM doesn't have to invoke Article 50 until the EU have engaged them in some level of pre-negotiation. 6 months, 12 months......by the next GE - when at least one party is bound to run on a not leaving the EU mandate if we are still in it. So the EU will have to compromise a little potentially to get the Article 50 part evening moving.
Some of the other factors to throw into this -
The US - Donald Trump - he could be voted as President in November, if he suddenly turns around and wants to offer the UK a trade agreement, that would throw things a little for the EU and change the negotiating position a bit. Unlikely but at this stage he is an unknown quantity, so could lob all kinds of grenades into the process.
The Greece problem is likely to raise it's head again, as could the Italian banking crisis. France elections in 2017, Germany Elections, 2017 (I think)
Mean while if Blighty is being kept out of the EU meetings, perhaps a Commonwealth meeting could be called. Agenda Item 1 - free trade area idea - building on the lessons learned from the EU project, but better, just trade, not political integration, Visa based travel - but preferred terms for members. Exchange 28 nations for 53, 508 million people for 2.1 billion. How many countries in the Commonwealth would like to trade and benefit together right across the globe. GBP is 9 trillion, 78% comes from 4 nations - how much potential growth is there? 'Pre'-Negotiations could be going on (in secret) before article 50 is triggered. Then when a go-live date is agreed, it would be invoked 2 years later - the end of the Article 50 time....
I know the above is a little (well a lot) flippant, but it does highlight that time could be a major challenge for the EU, and triggering article 50 is totally up to the leader of the UK - no matter how much pressure the EU apply. There is going to be alot happening over the next 12-18 months some of which could conspire against the EU if the UK chooses not to invoke article 50 - we could just be the petulant child sitting in the corner.Meanwhile business will keep trading, investment may well slow down, but that could hit the whole of the UK/Eurozone. It's not all quite as one sided as it keeps appearing.
May 2018...2 years before the GE, could be another good window. I'm still in the it may never happen camp, but if it does, and it's executed properly with planning and forethought you would hope the possibilities are endless.
However starting to weigh everything up this afternoon, there are some real unknown factors here - including time. The EU are keen to crack on here and keep control, potentially because the more time that goes by the more that could go wrong, or more unexpected eventualities could happen.
Article 50 does appear to have 1 major draw back - it's totally reliant on the LEAVING member state to invoke it, the other members can't. So when the clock starts ticking can be timed to suit the leaving member. I know uncertainty is never good, but while decisions are not being made things are likely to tick along as normal. We are still a fully fledged paid up member of the EU and free market, and expected to be until we finally leave. Only Cameron said he would invoke Article 50 the following day, but didn't and now much to annoyance of the other leaders has just kicked it down the road a few months ready for the next PM. As far as I'm aware no-one else has offered a timescale. While the lunatics may have taken over the asylum, at this stage they are firmly locked in with the only key to leave when they are ready.
One of the other threads has the comedy EU-Boris phone call script posted, the gist being Boris can't get any info about leaving before invoking article 50. However when reversed the new PM doesn't have to invoke Article 50 until the EU have engaged them in some level of pre-negotiation. 6 months, 12 months......by the next GE - when at least one party is bound to run on a not leaving the EU mandate if we are still in it. So the EU will have to compromise a little potentially to get the Article 50 part evening moving.
Some of the other factors to throw into this -
The US - Donald Trump - he could be voted as President in November, if he suddenly turns around and wants to offer the UK a trade agreement, that would throw things a little for the EU and change the negotiating position a bit. Unlikely but at this stage he is an unknown quantity, so could lob all kinds of grenades into the process.
The Greece problem is likely to raise it's head again, as could the Italian banking crisis. France elections in 2017, Germany Elections, 2017 (I think)
Mean while if Blighty is being kept out of the EU meetings, perhaps a Commonwealth meeting could be called. Agenda Item 1 - free trade area idea - building on the lessons learned from the EU project, but better, just trade, not political integration, Visa based travel - but preferred terms for members. Exchange 28 nations for 53, 508 million people for 2.1 billion. How many countries in the Commonwealth would like to trade and benefit together right across the globe. GBP is 9 trillion, 78% comes from 4 nations - how much potential growth is there? 'Pre'-Negotiations could be going on (in secret) before article 50 is triggered. Then when a go-live date is agreed, it would be invoked 2 years later - the end of the Article 50 time....
I know the above is a little (well a lot) flippant, but it does highlight that time could be a major challenge for the EU, and triggering article 50 is totally up to the leader of the UK - no matter how much pressure the EU apply. There is going to be alot happening over the next 12-18 months some of which could conspire against the EU if the UK chooses not to invoke article 50 - we could just be the petulant child sitting in the corner.Meanwhile business will keep trading, investment may well slow down, but that could hit the whole of the UK/Eurozone. It's not all quite as one sided as it keeps appearing.
May 2018...2 years before the GE, could be another good window. I'm still in the it may never happen camp, but if it does, and it's executed properly with planning and forethought you would hope the possibilities are endless.
sanf said:
I'm still in the it may never happen camp, but if it does, and it's executed properly with planning and forethought you would hope the possibilities are endless.
I was with you up until this point. The problem is, look at the career politicians we have currently in the HoP. It doesn't exactly inspire confidence.As Farage would say, not done a decent days work between them.
vonuber said:
sanf said:
I'm still in the it may never happen camp, but if it does, and it's executed properly with planning and forethought you would hope the possibilities are endless.
I was with you up until this point. The problem is, look at the career politicians we have currently in the HoP. It doesn't exactly inspire confidence..
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