Jeremy Corbyn Vol. 2
Discussion
alfaspecial said:
edh said:
I'm right.
You confuse Labour voters and Labour constituencies. I'm happy to accept the figures you've quoted.
"However, electoral geography can be deceptive. A majority of voters in many Labour-held constituencies may have backed Leave, but that does not necessarily mean that most Labour supporters voted that way. The pro-Leave majorities in such seats could have been accounted for by the behaviour of those who voted for one of Labour’s (many) opponents or, indeed, did not vote at all. After all, Labour won the support of more than half the electorate in just two constituencies in the 2015 general election.
In fact, all of the survey evidence on how individual voters behaved on June 23 indicates that a clear majority of those who voted Labour in 2015 and who turned out for the referendum backed Remain. According to the largest such survey, based on a panel of over 30,000 voters interviewed on behalf of the British Election Study (BES), no fewer than 71 per cent of 2015 election Labour voters voted for Remain."
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/201...
Yougov puts the numbers a bit lower
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/27/how-britain-v...
No, you are wrong. The detailed analysis I quoted clearly shows that Labour Constituencies OUTSIDE OF THE LONDON AREA (and a few other urban areas) voted LEAVE by a significant margin. You confuse Labour voters and Labour constituencies. I'm happy to accept the figures you've quoted.
"However, electoral geography can be deceptive. A majority of voters in many Labour-held constituencies may have backed Leave, but that does not necessarily mean that most Labour supporters voted that way. The pro-Leave majorities in such seats could have been accounted for by the behaviour of those who voted for one of Labour’s (many) opponents or, indeed, did not vote at all. After all, Labour won the support of more than half the electorate in just two constituencies in the 2015 general election.
In fact, all of the survey evidence on how individual voters behaved on June 23 indicates that a clear majority of those who voted Labour in 2015 and who turned out for the referendum backed Remain. According to the largest such survey, based on a panel of over 30,000 voters interviewed on behalf of the British Election Study (BES), no fewer than 71 per cent of 2015 election Labour voters voted for Remain."
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/201...
Yougov puts the numbers a bit lower
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/27/how-britain-v...
..from the same article
"Of course, these figures include voters from London, where Labour is strong but where there was a clear vote in favour of remaining in the EU. However, even if we exclude Labour voters in the capital – and in pro-Remain Scotland too – the proportion of 2015 Labour voters who voted for Remain still stands, in the large BES panel, at 69 per cent. In short, it seems clear that even in provincial England, most Labour supporters voted to remain in the EU."
...Unless you have a source that shows otherwise?
don'tbesilly said:
HarryW said:
This U turn, sorry Policy shift, by Corbyn has nothing to do with his life long and deep routed anti EU position but everything to do with short term political ambition. A true man of principle, not.
I suspect this is a desperate effort to force a stalemate in the commons and hence a GE, before he either gets outsted or fades into oblivion. I have a feeling this is his last roll of the dice for power. However I don't doubt he will carp from the sidelines as Brexit progresses past this point, loathsome man.
Nutshell.I suspect this is a desperate effort to force a stalemate in the commons and hence a GE, before he either gets outsted or fades into oblivion. I have a feeling this is his last roll of the dice for power. However I don't doubt he will carp from the sidelines as Brexit progresses past this point, loathsome man.
I think he's blown it, apparently any Labour voter who voted Leave who is disappointed in his 'u' turn needs to "get a life", genuine comment from Corbyn!
turbobloke said:
don'tbesilly said:
HarryW said:
This U turn, sorry Policy shift, by Corbyn has nothing to do with his life long and deep routed anti EU position but everything to do with short term political ambition. A true man of principle, not.
I suspect this is a desperate effort to force a stalemate in the commons and hence a GE, before he either gets outsted or fades into oblivion. I have a feeling this is his last roll of the dice for power. However I don't doubt he will carp from the sidelines as Brexit progresses past this point, loathsome man.
Nutshell.I suspect this is a desperate effort to force a stalemate in the commons and hence a GE, before he either gets outsted or fades into oblivion. I have a feeling this is his last roll of the dice for power. However I don't doubt he will carp from the sidelines as Brexit progresses past this point, loathsome man.
I think he's blown it, apparently any Labour voter who voted Leave who is disappointed in his 'u' turn needs to "get a life", genuine comment from Corbyn!
I noticed a split second of glazed over hesitation when Kuensberg asked him what plan B was...
The 2017 GE showed just how many former UKIP voters went to Labour, they will be properly upset by what Labour policy is now heading for. A lot of former UKIP voters thought the job was done with the referendum result, they certainly wont be thinking that now. I think UKIP is dead now, so they will either not vote or vote for the conservatives, who are implementing what they wanted.
Labour need a substantial gain in support to get into number 10, they cant afford to lose any of those former UKIP voters if they want to win the next GE.
Labour need a substantial gain in support to get into number 10, they cant afford to lose any of those former UKIP voters if they want to win the next GE.
In my northern constituency in 2015 nearly 10’000 people voted UKIP
In 2017 the vote collapsed completely with 4000 extra Conservative votes and 6000 additional Labour votes cast
Those 6k additional Labour votes won them the seat
Did those votes come from UKIP supporters who thought the job was done and the battle won ?
I’d say that those 10k votes are very much up for grabs in the next bout .. and I’d say they were votes from the politically engaged rather than tribal voters
In the referendum the leave vote was 68% I think
I’m fairly sure my constituency is fairly typical of the Labour northern heartlands
In 2017 the vote collapsed completely with 4000 extra Conservative votes and 6000 additional Labour votes cast
Those 6k additional Labour votes won them the seat
Did those votes come from UKIP supporters who thought the job was done and the battle won ?
I’d say that those 10k votes are very much up for grabs in the next bout .. and I’d say they were votes from the politically engaged rather than tribal voters
In the referendum the leave vote was 68% I think
I’m fairly sure my constituency is fairly typical of the Labour northern heartlands
Edited by Earthdweller on Monday 26th February 20:26
Sadly there will be some of the Tory remainers like Clarke who will willingly see a Labour government in power to stop Brexit. They will figure that Labour will only be in power a short time before they screw everything up and the Tories get back in.
Corbyn has no principles and is now being driven by others in any attempt to bring down the Government.
He denied meeting the spy, yet now he remembers he met him lots of times with other MP's. He failed to answer any questions as to how we will progress the Brexit at all.
If there was another referendum, people I know who voted to remain are now saying that the EU has shown what the leaver campaign was saying was true. The bullying from the EU is not what they expected at all as a result they would vote leave. They fear that we will end up paying to have access, paying for many other things and the FOM will still continue and we will have no say in anything.
Bad times ahead for the UK now
Corbyn has no principles and is now being driven by others in any attempt to bring down the Government.
He denied meeting the spy, yet now he remembers he met him lots of times with other MP's. He failed to answer any questions as to how we will progress the Brexit at all.
If there was another referendum, people I know who voted to remain are now saying that the EU has shown what the leaver campaign was saying was true. The bullying from the EU is not what they expected at all as a result they would vote leave. They fear that we will end up paying to have access, paying for many other things and the FOM will still continue and we will have no say in anything.
Bad times ahead for the UK now
P5BNij said:
If every journo who interviews him had the guts (or editorial go ahead) to pull apart absolutely everything he says his true colours and ineptitude would be visible to all, including those who take what he says as gospel, or have their fingers planted firmly in their ears.
I noticed a split second of glazed over hesitation when Kuensberg asked him what plan B was...
Has Jezza ever actually been involved in a negotiation? He comes across as an armchair theorist, not someone who actually knows what happens in negotiations.I noticed a split second of glazed over hesitation when Kuensberg asked him what plan B was...
NoddyonNitrous said:
P5BNij said:
If every journo who interviews him had the guts (or editorial go ahead) to pull apart absolutely everything he says his true colours and ineptitude would be visible to all, including those who take what he says as gospel, or have their fingers planted firmly in their ears.
I noticed a split second of glazed over hesitation when Kuensberg asked him what plan B was...
Has Jezza ever actually been involved in a negotiation? He comes across as an armchair theorist, not someone who actually knows what happens in negotiations.I noticed a split second of glazed over hesitation when Kuensberg asked him what plan B was...
edh said:
The analysis you quote is about CONSTITUENCIES!! which have voters from all parties... (In fact I think the referendum enfranchised many voters in safe seats for the first time in years, one reason the turnout was so high. For the first time, Labour voters in Surrey and Tory voters in Manchester had a voice)
..from the same article
"Of course, these figures include voters from London, where Labour is strong but where there was a clear vote in favour of remaining in the EU. However, even if we exclude Labour voters in the capital – and in pro-Remain Scotland too – the proportion of 2015 Labour voters who voted for Remain still stands, in the large BES panel, at 69 per cent. In short, it seems clear that even in provincial England, most Labour supporters voted to remain in the EU."
...Unless you have a source that shows otherwise?
I would agree with you that in the main, in many areas, it was the Labour constituencies that voted leave, not necessarily a majority of recent Labour voters...from the same article
"Of course, these figures include voters from London, where Labour is strong but where there was a clear vote in favour of remaining in the EU. However, even if we exclude Labour voters in the capital – and in pro-Remain Scotland too – the proportion of 2015 Labour voters who voted for Remain still stands, in the large BES panel, at 69 per cent. In short, it seems clear that even in provincial England, most Labour supporters voted to remain in the EU."
...Unless you have a source that shows otherwise?
However I would add that many/most? of those leave voters would have tribally voted labour in the past and it is Labour who have left them rather than the other way round.
O'Neill said:
Nothing in recent years has signalled Labour’s turn away from its old voters than this. Labour is no longer a party for the working class — it is a party against the working class.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/02/labour-is-no...
Having watched him being interviewed after his "I Have a Dream" speech, when asked what Plan B is should Plan A fail, his response was Plan B was to continue to negotiate until we have Plan A
I truly despair of anyone who buys into him and his what crap shall I spout to get into power today policies and thinks he will sort out an amicable and workable solution to Brexit.
The last Labour government bankrupted the country. His lot will wreck it irreparably should he get in.
I truly despair of anyone who buys into him and his what crap shall I spout to get into power today policies and thinks he will sort out an amicable and workable solution to Brexit.
The last Labour government bankrupted the country. His lot will wreck it irreparably should he get in.
Smollet said:
Having watched him being interviewed after his "I Have a Dream" speech, when asked what Plan B is should Plan A fail, his response was Plan B was to continue to negotiate until we have Plan A
I truly despair of anyone who buys into him and his what crap shall I spout to get into power today policies and thinks he will sort out an amicable and workable solution to Brexit.
The last Labour government bankrupted the country. His lot will wreck it irreparably should he get in.
With this level of preparation, the potential negotiating counterpart must be quaking in their boots. Not. I truly despair of anyone who buys into him and his what crap shall I spout to get into power today policies and thinks he will sort out an amicable and workable solution to Brexit.
The last Labour government bankrupted the country. His lot will wreck it irreparably should he get in.
edh said:
The analysis you quote is about CONSTITUENCIES!! which have voters from all parties... (In fact I think the referendum enfranchised many voters in safe seats for the first time in years, one reason the turnout was so high. For the first time, Labour voters in Surrey and Tory voters in Manchester had a voice)
..from the same article
"Of course, these figures include voters from London, where Labour is strong but where there was a clear vote in favour of remaining in the EU. However, even if we exclude Labour voters in the capital – and in pro-Remain Scotland too – the proportion of 2015 Labour voters who voted for Remain still stands, in the large BES panel, at 69 per cent. In short, it seems clear that even in provincial England, most Labour supporters voted to remain in the EU."
...Unless you have a source that shows otherwise?
The sources that 'shows otherwise' are: ..from the same article
"Of course, these figures include voters from London, where Labour is strong but where there was a clear vote in favour of remaining in the EU. However, even if we exclude Labour voters in the capital – and in pro-Remain Scotland too – the proportion of 2015 Labour voters who voted for Remain still stands, in the large BES panel, at 69 per cent. In short, it seems clear that even in provincial England, most Labour supporters voted to remain in the EU."
...Unless you have a source that shows otherwise?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b71SDKPFbk...
https://ig.ft.com/sites/elections/2016/uk/eu-refer...
The area that I voted in (Mendip) was a REMAIN win (51:49) however by constituency (Somerton & Frome) the vote was a LEAVE win (50.3 to 49.7), the South West as a whole voted LEAVE
What you must try and understand is Cameron's motives for holding the referendum, they were
1). To resolve the ongoing Conservative internal EU divides - he believed that many non Tory voters would vote Remain and these plus Tory remain voters would win. He could then have 'proved' to Conservative EU-sceptics that the country had rejected LEAVE
2). The second benefit would be that LEAVE supporting Labour voters would feel betrayed by the party and switch their vote to UKIP in the next GE. This 'divide and rule' tactic was used to bury Labour in Scotland in 2015
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff