Could UK U-turn on Referendum Result (Vol 2)

Could UK U-turn on Referendum Result (Vol 2)

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Discussion

Troubleatmill

10,210 posts

158 months

Thursday 20th July 2017
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jakesmith said:
What about contributions from the EU? We may be a net contributor but all those tourist attractions in Cornwall and Wales aren't going to get sweet FA when we leave the EU, they will be hit bloody hard. Maybe they can all move to the fishing industry?
See all that money we send to the EU? Once we are out - that money is in our pocket and we could spend a little supporting tourism etc

We could spend it how we wish and not be told by the EU how to spend it.

Imagine that!




Murph7355

37,648 posts

255 months

Thursday 20th July 2017
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jakesmith said:
We have elected representatives to represent our interest in formal forums for better or worse, who we can scrutinise and remove if needs be.
Asking every Tom Dick & Harry about complex international legal and economic issues with far reaching effects... people who may vote in a simplistic & emotional way... who have no comprehension of these sorts of matters - doesn't make sense to me. Why not have referendums on everything. In my opinion they actually go against the point of elected representation which is a cornerstone of our very long-established and stable democracy.
I'm not saying I have a lot of faith in politicians. But more so than your average person in the street.
We have scrutinised them and since 1992 there has been growing unrest at the pervasiveness of the EU, to the point where a political party born of the sole intent of giving the electorate a say on its position in the EU (with a view of extricating us from it) became strong enough that it prompted in no small part an established party offering a referendum.

The scrutiny eventually worked. MPs and politicians across Europe have been misjudging the electorates opinions on the EU for a long time in many countries. They need to learn from this. But will not.

jakesmith said:
Yes of course that's all true, as can not be known the impact of leaving. What we do know is that our global ranking in GDP has stayed the almost same since joining. It was unlikely to overtake Germany, Japan, USA, China due to population size and manufacturing.

With the EU block forming the 2nd largest economy in the world, and being pretty opposed to making Brexit look successful, and knowing how devious and caniving they can / will be to achieve that, I see it as a huge risk to leave. Ironically that in itself is a good reason to leave and i do get that, but somewhat feels like cutting your nose to spite your face.

There was a very good looking list from the PanPan poster above. How about the intangible but longest period of peace and prosperity ever, following a period of conflict so ghastly that many would not actually believe how bad life was across Europe and the attrocities that took place. Germany has done very well out of the EU and establishing itself as a manufacturing powerhouse but it was also making amends for something unspeakable. With a resurgent Russia and isolationist USA, there is an intangible benefit to having a close relationship with countries we have historically had fractious relationships with. Which is a lot of Europe.

There are also very tangible benefits. Of course Fishing will benefit from Brexit, that is a great example. Where does that rank though in terms of its economic relevance? How many new jobs vs how many lost, and will we have a native workforce to staff it? I don't pretend to know. What about contributions from the EU? We may be a net contributor but all those tourist attractions in Cornwall and Wales aren't going to get sweet FA when we leave the EU, they will be hit bloody hard. Maybe they can all move to the fishing industry?
The EU bloc is not an economy in its own right. There is no unified fiscal policy, there is no unified political system. It is not a state in its own right. It deals with trading rules as a bloc, but that's it (thus far) as far as the outside world (86% of the planet) is concerned.

The strongest reason you are putting forward for remaining is to avoid being bullied/punished. Great reason to remain.

Peace? The EU is not NATO.

On the rest, as others have noted it is impossible to say whether the EU has been of tangible benefit. If it were possible, it surely would have been stated last year rather than threats left right and centre? As you note above, our ranking ref GDP is no different. Which probably sums it all up nicely - it's made no tangible difference either way. So making the decision a purely economic one was probably not the wisest approach smile

44yrs in and no one can put together an irrefutable argument for the absolute benefit and positivity of staying in. If that was anything else in life you'd be hugely disappointed.

jakesmith

9,461 posts

170 months

Thursday 20th July 2017
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Murph7355 said:
We have scrutinised them and since 1992 there has been growing unrest at the pervasiveness of the EU, to the point where a political party born of the sole intent of giving the electorate a say on its position in the EU (with a view of extricating us from it) became strong enough that it prompted in no small part an established party offering a referendum.
There was undoubtedly voices of dissent against the EU. How loud were they though? Any louder than any dissenting section of government or the public? UKIP's support before the referendum was announced, was notably concentrated in seaside towns with decimated tourist industries and high levels of immigration. It is notable that as the buildup to the referendum UKIP switched tactics to present the referendum as being about immigration 'We Want Our Country Back' comes to mind. The support and coverage bore no relation to what you mention above. The founder of UKIP who was ousted was horrified at how the debate was hijacked. A number of highly ambitious and callous Tory MPs saw the referendum as a power grab oportunity against almost all prevailing economic institutions' advice.

Murph7355 said:
The EU bloc is not an economy in its own right. There is no unified fiscal policy, there is no unified political system. It is not a state in its own right. It deals with trading rules as a bloc, but that's it (thus far) as far as the outside world (86% of the planet) is concerned.
That is absolutely not how I perceived Brexiteers to position the EU during the campaign

Murph7355 said:
The strongest reason you are putting forward for remaining is to avoid being bullied/punished. Great reason to remain.
Seems you might accept my sentiment that we might be cutting our nose to spite our face. 'Pride' will not provide employment. Please forgive an analogy but in business I have to make these sorts of annoying decisions all the time. Paying retailers to list our products or risk not selling anything with them. I could object on a matter of principle as they 'bully' us but in the end we lose if we walk away and they don't lose enough to care. They lose more if everyone who walks away succeeds and they have to change their model. Sometimes you do the wrong thing for the right reason, this is what has made us the 6th largest economy on Earth in the first place and has seen you sitting typing on your computer rather than working in a field somewhere, see: (former)British Empire.

Murph7355 said:
Peace? The EU is not NATO.
I didn't position it as such, and in a capitalist world it might even be more important, as strong trading ties draws us together and can only help add focus to the importance of diplomacy to relations

Murph7355 said:
On the rest, as others have noted it is impossible to say whether the EU has been of tangible benefit. If it were possible, it surely would have been stated last year rather than threats left right and centre? As you note above, our ranking ref GDP is no different. Which probably sums it all up nicely - it's made no tangible difference either way. So making the decision a purely economic one was probably not the wisest approach smile
That conclusion can not be drawn as you say at the beginning. We have maintained our position despite or because of the EU membership, it is unknown. But we are in a strong position today so why change it for the sake of bolstering our fishing industry and 'pride'.




jakesmith

9,461 posts

170 months

Thursday 20th July 2017
quotequote all
Troubleatmill said:
See all that money we send to the EU? Once we are out - that money is in our pocket and we could spend a little supporting tourism etc

We could spend it how we wish and not be told by the EU how to spend it.

Imagine that!
It's a nice idea isn't it, we leave the EU and a special grants department is set up to determine how to spend some of the spare money.
I consider that highly doubtful, maybe I am beig cynical but how could it be justified when public pay, education, NHS funding are so politicised at the moment, helped of course by Mr Spend Corbyn and his lovely ideas that are enthusing the public
The only way investment in 'fringe' activities (that drive tourism and provide employment and ironically, local 'pride') can be justified is because it is EU grants that we don't control.

Sway

26,070 posts

193 months

Thursday 20th July 2017
quotequote all
jakesmith said:
That conclusion can not be drawn as you say at the beginning. We have maintained our position despite or because of the EU membership, it is unknown. But we are in a strong position today so why change it for the sake of bolstering our fishing industry and 'pride'.
You seem to be assuming that our current position in the EU is maintainable if we hadn't voted for brexit.

It's not.

With Target2 imbalances hitting €1.3Tn, on top of the sovereign debt issues over half the bloc hold, the status quo of a trading bloc with people movement, generic legislation and fairly small fiscal transfers is untenable.

There will have to be full and proper fiscal integration of the Eurozone, or it will collapse. There is absolutely no other way, unless Germany writes off nearly a trillion euros...

If they are successful, and fully integrate (almost certainly without the support of the populous), then we will be in an untenable position - by default, the legislature and areas of competence will have to expand, and will be solely focused on the needs of the EZ single economy. That will go against our interests, as our economy is so materially different.

Now really was the only point where it is possible to get out, seeing as we didn't open up the possibility earlier. No other EU member is in a position to leave - either being shackled to the Euro, or a significant net beneficiary. Although Poland is looking very interesting with it's stance on the economic migrants...

Quite simply, it is not just about pride, and it certainly isn't about cutting my nose off to spite my face. Pragmatically, leaving will be tough. How tough, no one yet knows - however no one is seriously suggesting calamity followed by catastrophe.

That price is far less than staying in will be over the next decade or two (noting that the EZ is particularly skilled at kicking the can down the road).

jakesmith

9,461 posts

170 months

Thursday 20th July 2017
quotequote all
Sway said:
You seem to be assuming that our current position in the EU is maintainable if we hadn't voted for brexit.

It's not.

With Target2 imbalances hitting €1.3Tn, on top of the sovereign debt issues over half the bloc hold, the status quo of a trading bloc with people movement, generic legislation and fairly small fiscal transfers is untenable.

There will have to be full and proper fiscal integration of the Eurozone, or it will collapse. There is absolutely no other way, unless Germany writes off nearly a trillion euros...

If they are successful, and fully integrate (almost certainly without the support of the populous), then we will be in an untenable position - by default, the legislature and areas of competence will have to expand, and will be solely focused on the needs of the EZ single economy. That will go against our interests, as our economy is so materially different.

Now really was the only point where it is possible to get out, seeing as we didn't open up the possibility earlier. No other EU member is in a position to leave - either being shackled to the Euro, or a significant net beneficiary. Although Poland is looking very interesting with it's stance on the economic migrants...

Quite simply, it is not just about pride, and it certainly isn't about cutting my nose off to spite my face. Pragmatically, leaving will be tough. How tough, no one yet knows - however no one is seriously suggesting calamity followed by catastrophe.

That price is far less than staying in will be over the next decade or two (noting that the EZ is particularly skilled at kicking the can down the road).
Excellent post, thank you, very compelling. I'm off to do some reading.
I'd have a far moe optomistic outlook on the situation if the debate had been made with this sort of level of insight, but I sadly saw little evidence of that.

jakesmith

9,461 posts

170 months

Thursday 20th July 2017
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Murph7355 said:
Awesome charts.

Global confidence in democratically elected leaders is always a big deal to the electorate of the nation concerned I would think (at least the ones who voted for their choice).

What does "confidence" mean btw? (2nd chart).

Is it "confidence that current trade deals will remain"? "confidence that their nationals will be able to travel there"? "confidence that a world war won't start"? "confidence that their own interests aren't about to suffer"?

Which 37 countries were asked? And who within them? What questions were asked?
OK well maybe you'll gain some confidence from his own country's approval rating - check out the last column. No doubt this is the fault of the MSM, the same MSM that couldn't actually swing the election against him despite blanket terrible coverage?


///ajd

8,964 posts

205 months

Thursday 20th July 2017
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alfie2244 said:
User33678888 said:
Is there any other situation but politics where you take a vote and get a 49/51 result and say 'yes, that's decided it then, on we go' rather than 'we'd better talk about this some more'. I certainly couldn't run my business with only half the shareholders onboard.
I thought it was 48/52 but even so what would the outcome of a shareholders meeting be if a vote on something had the same result? Genuine Q BTW.
In my org if you were doing a business case for a project and when presented to the board half the members said "no fking way" then the project would not go forward without a serious re-think.

No business would make a case for brexit - there isn't one - it was a political stunt that backfired. Surely this isn't news?

turbobloke

103,739 posts

259 months

Thursday 20th July 2017
quotequote all
///ajd said:
alfie2244 said:
User33678888 said:
Is there any other situation but politics where you take a vote and get a 49/51 result and say 'yes, that's decided it then, on we go' rather than 'we'd better talk about this some more'. I certainly couldn't run my business with only half the shareholders onboard.
I thought it was 48/52 but even so what would the outcome of a shareholders meeting be if a vote on something had the same result? Genuine Q BTW.
In my org if you were doing a business case for a project and when presented to the board half the members said "no fking way" then the project would not go forward without a serious re-think.
Nobody presented a business case for remaining in the EU either, it was all armageddonist hype with any cost benefit analysis losing the benefit side.

The analogy is therefore equally applicable to Leave though it's as weak as gnat's pee and not worth bothering with.

Nothingtoseehere

7,379 posts

153 months

Thursday 20th July 2017
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jakesmith said:
Excellent post, thank you, very compelling. I'm off to do some reading.
I'd have a far moe optomistic outlook on the situation if the debate had been made with this sort of level of insight, but I sadly saw little evidence of that.
But calling us "simple minded idiots" yesterday was level of insight on your part?

jakesmith

9,461 posts

170 months

Thursday 20th July 2017
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Nothingtoseehere said:
But calling us "simple minded idiots" yesterday was level of insight on your part?
Not everyone's contribution to the debate on this is as compelling or considered as Sway's above




Sorry cheap shot. But funny.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZO9JGSScMQ




Einion Yrth

19,575 posts

243 months

Thursday 20th July 2017
quotequote all
jakesmith said:
Sorry cheap shot. But funny.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZO9JGSScMQ
Half right; it's a cheap shot. Isn't funny though.

Murph7355

37,648 posts

255 months

Thursday 20th July 2017
quotequote all
jakesmith said:
There was undoubtedly voices of dissent against the EU. How loud were they though? Any louder than any dissenting section of government or the public? UKIP's support before the referendum was announced, was notably concentrated in seaside towns with decimated tourist industries and high levels of immigration. It is notable that as the buildup to the referendum UKIP switched tactics to present the referendum as being about immigration 'We Want Our Country Back' comes to mind. The support and coverage bore no relation to what you mention above. The founder of UKIP who was ousted was horrified at how the debate was hijacked. A number of highly ambitious and callous Tory MPs saw the referendum as a power grab oportunity against almost all prevailing economic institutions' advice.
In 2015 UKIP came second in 120 constituencies. I think your dismissal of their support base is a little naive. Anti-EU sentiment was driving their vote share, and immigration was but one piece of that puzzle.

The Tory Euro-sceptics didn't help matters of course when it comes to Cameron's pledge. But they had been ever present. UKIPs rise in vote share if not seats was the impetus they needed.

I'm sure if Cameron had felt he could win a majority in 2015 he would never have offered the referendum. I think that he did surprised him still. Had he not offered a referendum, it would only have taken one more, possibly two General Elections before it became a nailed on certainty no matter which party won. All IMO of course - we'll never be able to prove it.

As for economist advice...no one has ever been able to prove anything on an economic perspective where the EU is concerned. Nobody ever could. Nobody will ever be able to prove anything was Brexit related after the fact either.

Closest I suspect we've ever got to being able to assess predictions properly thus far were the predictions of doom in the aftermath of a vote to leave. They didn't go so well.

jakesmith said:
...
Seems you might accept my sentiment that we might be cutting our nose to spite our face. 'Pride' will not provide employment. Please forgive an analogy but in business I have to make these sorts of annoying decisions all the time. Paying retailers to list our products or risk not selling anything with them. I could object on a matter of principle as they 'bully' us but in the end we lose if we walk away and they don't lose enough to care. They lose more if everyone who walks away succeeds and they have to change their model. Sometimes you do the wrong thing for the right reason, this is what has made us the 6th largest economy on Earth in the first place and has seen you sitting typing on your computer rather than working in a field somewhere, see: (former)British Empire.
Not even close. You don't stay in bullying, threatening relationships. There is nothing whatsoever to be gained from them.

We're the 5th biggest economy btw.

jakesmith said:
...
That conclusion can not be drawn as you say at the beginning. We have maintained our position despite or because of the EU membership, it is unknown. But we are in a strong position today so why change it for the sake of bolstering our fishing industry and 'pride'.
Because the EU has been on an insidious trail to federalism that the majority of people here, and I am sure a large number abroad, simply do not want.

And as others have pointed out, "Remaining" was not maintaining the status quo. It was ever closer union (no matter what someone may have scribbled on a piece of paper for Cameron). The Eurozone is in trouble. The EU has nightmares ahead of it. We need to be arms length when the st hits the fan. IMO. It won't give total protection. But it will be better than being wrapped up in it when it goes tits up.

jakesmith

9,461 posts

170 months

Thursday 20th July 2017
quotequote all
Murph7355 said:
Closest I suspect we've ever got to being able to assess predictions properly thus far were the predictions of doom in the aftermath of a vote to leave. They didn't go so well.
The pound has fallen significantly and not recovered, the property market has slowed down, the huge consumer area that I work in & the entire retail sector has seen footfall down by 40% in some areas. We can't even possibly know what more is to come, we haven't left yet or got any idea what the deal / no deal situation will be, what stage of the aftermath are we at?


Sway

26,070 posts

193 months

Thursday 20th July 2017
quotequote all
jakesmith said:
Murph7355 said:
Closest I suspect we've ever got to being able to assess predictions properly thus far were the predictions of doom in the aftermath of a vote to leave. They didn't go so well.
The pound has fallen significantly and not recovered, the property market has slowed down, the huge consumer area that I work in & the entire retail sector has seen footfall down by 40% in some areas. We can't even possibly know what more is to come, we haven't left yet or got any idea what the deal / no deal situation will be, what stage of the aftermath are we at?
Retail figures were out today - up 3% year on year...

Murph7355

37,648 posts

255 months

Thursday 20th July 2017
quotequote all
jakesmith said:
The pound has fallen significantly and not recovered, the property market has slowed down, the huge consumer area that I work in & the entire retail sector has seen footfall down by 40% in some areas. We can't even possibly know what more is to come, we haven't left yet or got any idea what the deal / no deal situation will be, what stage of the aftermath are we at?
A weakened currency has its benefits. Ask Germany.

Property in this country (or at least parts of it) is still buoyant. Unhealthily so IMO.

Sway's just noted retail figures. Maybe "footfall" isn't the best indicator (unless you're heavily invested in the last century).

We can't know what is to come, you're right. We never could.

We're at the stage in the aftermath where no emergency budget has had to be applied, no recession has happened, house prices are still buoyant, the country is still doing relatively OK but needs to be doing better. ie all the things the great and the good forecast have not happened. And yet we continue to believe them based on equal amounts of hot air/poor modelling...

Tuna

19,930 posts

283 months

Thursday 20th July 2017
quotequote all
jakesmith said:
The pound has fallen significantly and not recovered,
You mean the market has adjusted and has now priced in the current uncertainty. If this was an unfolding disaster, it'd be still dropping, but instead as the negotiations proceed, the pound has been pretty stable against the Euro.

jakesmith said:
the property market has slowed down
If you really think the current state of the property market is remotely related to Brexit, you must be phoning this in from Mars. The (huge) issues in the UK property market are systemic and have been a point of discussion on this forum for at least 15 years.

jakesmith said:
, the huge consumer area that I work in & the entire retail sector has seen footfall down by 40% in some areas.
And again... how is this anything to do with Brexit? It's convenient to lay the blame for everything on a Brexit bogeyman, but the retail sector has a whole bunch of problems that are nothing to do with something that hasn't actually happened yet. Or maybe shoppers are standing outside Marks and Spencers checking the negotiation updates on their phones instead of buying socks?

jakesmith said:
We can't even possibly know what more is to come, we haven't left yet or got any idea what the deal / no deal situation will be, what stage of the aftermath are we at?
We can't both be in an aftermath and have not left yet. If your business is actually going to be affected by changes in tariffs (as opposed to apparently being wiped out by people being a bit unsure), why aren't you actually checking out what the possible outcomes are? WTO tariffs are well documented - and not nearly as scary as you seem to believe. Yet all we get on here is this existential doom.

I get that you feel unsure, but that is not the same as bad things actually happening, and certainly not the cause of every bad thing around you. Get a grip and realise that if there are challenges ahead, you have more than enough warning to start doing something about it and adjust your business accordingly. Passively rolling over and declaring that the world has ended is not going to do anything but ensure your own misery.

jakesmith

9,461 posts

170 months

Thursday 20th July 2017
quotequote all
Tuna said:
jakesmith said:
The pound has fallen significantly and not recovered,
You mean the market has adjusted and has now priced in the current uncertainty. If this was an unfolding disaster, it'd be still dropping, but instead as the negotiations proceed, the pound has been pretty stable against the Euro.

jakesmith said:
the property market has slowed down
If you really think the current state of the property market is remotely related to Brexit, you must be phoning this in from Mars. The (huge) issues in the UK property market are systemic and have been a point of discussion on this forum for at least 15 years.

jakesmith said:
, the huge consumer area that I work in & the entire retail sector has seen footfall down by 40% in some areas.
And again... how is this anything to do with Brexit? It's convenient to lay the blame for everything on a Brexit bogeyman, but the retail sector has a whole bunch of problems that are nothing to do with something that hasn't actually happened yet. Or maybe shoppers are standing outside Marks and Spencers checking the negotiation updates on their phones instead of buying socks?

jakesmith said:
We can't even possibly know what more is to come, we haven't left yet or got any idea what the deal / no deal situation will be, what stage of the aftermath are we at?
We can't both be in an aftermath and have not left yet. If your business is actually going to be affected by changes in tariffs (as opposed to apparently being wiped out by people being a bit unsure), why aren't you actually checking out what the possible outcomes are? WTO tariffs are well documented - and not nearly as scary as you seem to believe. Yet all we get on here is this existential doom.

I get that you feel unsure, but that is not the same as bad things actually happening, and certainly not the cause of every bad thing around you. Get a grip and realise that if there are challenges ahead, you have more than enough warning to start doing something about it and adjust your business accordingly. Passively rolling over and declaring that the world has ended is not going to do anything but ensure your own misery.
I can't do all the multiquoting but just a couple of points, firstly because the pound is not falling any further doesn't mean it's in good shape. 'Priced in' ... our currency has been devalued. Only falling global oil prices has prevented continued inflation this quarter that would have potentially seen base rate rises that would then start to squeeze people on their mortgages.

Here is consumer confidence over the last 10 years, if you think a 15 point drop in 12 months won't cause consumers to think twice before making financial commitments then you are in denial. This will certainly be influencing retail, consumer spending and property transactions





B'stard Child

28,320 posts

245 months

Friday 21st July 2017
quotequote all
jakesmith said:
I can't do all the multiquoting but just a couple of points, <snip>
Why not?

Is it because.....

  • you aren't willing to learn?
  • you think it's not worth the effort?
  • no one has helped you learn?
  • life is too short?
  • you are three and that stuff isn't needed till five years old?
  • something else?

amusingduck

9,396 posts

135 months

Friday 21st July 2017
quotequote all
jakesmith said:
Here is consumer confidence over the last 10 years, if you think a 15 point drop in 12 months won't cause consumers to think twice before making financial commitments then you are in denial. This will certainly be influencing retail, consumer spending and property transactions
Sway said:
Retail figures were out today - up 3% year on year...