The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)
Discussion
Eddie Strohacker said:
Tuna said:
I rely on SilverSixer, Mr T, ajd and Eddie to tell me how all this good news is so bad for me and how little I understand 
Did someone whistle?Let's get away from all that overwhelmingly biased
http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/politics/theresa-may-w...
confused_buyer said:
If you're debunking the economic news on that basis then that also debunks the article you linked to as well in that we will only be able to get serious on trade once we've left and can actually sign something?
Not really, It's one metric & a very welcome one, but not something you can draw conclusions for an entire economy on. I take it you saw the OECD GDP forecast for 2018 yesterday?
Had I posted that here & used it to start crowing about the failure of Brexit, I fully expect I'd have been on the receiving end of the same arguments & in any event, I was pointing out a truism. We haven't left.
Eddie Strohacker said:
confused_buyer said:
If you're debunking the economic news on that basis then that also debunks the article you linked to as well in that we will only be able to get serious on trade once we've left and can actually sign something?
Had I posted that here & used it to start crowing about the failure of Brexit, I fully expect I'd have been on the receiving end of the same arguments & in any event, I was pointing out a truism. We haven't left.
turbobloke said:
Could you advise whether the OECD economist(s) responsible for that prediction were among the leading economists who confidently predicted a year-long recession starting in 2016 merely as a result of the Leave vote? It would be helpful to know which flavour of economist we're dealing with.
No. I made a point about not making a big deal of that graph that you're choosing to ignore, so if you really want to know (you don't) then do it yourself.
Eddie Strohacker said:
turbobloke said:
Could you advise whether the OECD economist(s) responsible for that prediction were among the leading economists who confidently predicted a year-long recession starting in 2016 merely as a result of the Leave vote? It would be helpful to know which flavour of economist we're dealing with.
No. I made a point about not making a big deal of that graph that you're choosing to ignore, so if you really want to know (you don't) then do it yourself.Eddie Strohacker said:
Not really, It's one metric & a very welcome one, but not something you can draw conclusions for an entire economy on. I take it you saw the OECD GDP forecast for 2018 yesterday?
Had I posted that here & used it to start crowing about the failure of Brexit, I fully expect I'd have been on the receiving end of the same arguments & in any event, I was pointing out a truism. We haven't left.
The OECD really have a poor record with their forecasting. If you want a refresher on what they said prior to the referendum, have a read http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/download/5j...Had I posted that here & used it to start crowing about the failure of Brexit, I fully expect I'd have been on the receiving end of the same arguments & in any event, I was pointing out a truism. We haven't left.
In that document they forecast a 1% decline in the EU and a 1.4% decline in the UK and a collapse of exports and investment into the country.
One thing that has come from the post 2008 GFC and the Brexit vote is that most of these bodies don't know their arse from their elbow when it comes to forecasts.
Eddie Strohacker said:
What part of I put it up as an illustration to make an entirely different point but aren't actually reading anything into it are you having trouble with? 
I'm not suggesting you are doing anything with it Eddie, I too am just using the OECD to make a point about forecasting and its value, or lack there of. The point was made on R4 this morning that many Brexiteers might cheer if banks and other financial services companies move offices and/or cut staff, but might that cheering be unwise? The tax that the City pays buys a fair chunk of NHS and so forth. Every reviled investment banker who leaves the UK or loses his or her job is someone whose job provides employment for support staff, caterers, couriers, printers, office cleaners, house cleaners, nannies, teachers, and a host of ancillary services eg data providers, software developers and so on. The same can be said for other business sectors that do invisible exports, for example the London legal services market. Legal services are currently benefiting from the uncertainties associated with Brexit, and this benefit will continue for a while yet, but London is at risk of losing some (not all) of its standing as an international legal services centre, partly because UK judgments will (absent a deal that appears unlikely) no longer be easily exportable to the EU once the UK exits. Dublin could cash in here if its gets its act together, as an English language common law legal system with Courts that can't be bribed, along with recognition of judgments across the EU, are attractive to businesses from the US, Canada and the Commonwealth.
I would be interested to hear from those who voted Leave whether you feel content with how the negotiations are going. Leave aside the merits of the arguments as to the substance of deals or no deals, who should do what, pay what, or what not. Do you feel that this Government knows what it is doing? Are you comfortable with the fact that, past the half way point for the agreement of all Mr Davis' fab non EU trade deals, not a single one has even been started, let alone finished? Assume that you are still pro the idea of leaving, are any of you bothered by the state of things as they have in fact turned out? The few thoughtful and well informed Brexiteers that I know are candid in saying that they expect the economy to take a major hit after the leave date, but they say that they thought that was a price worth paying because they thought that we would get better Government. They now say that they think that is not happening, and seems very unlikely to happen, and wish that the vote had gone the other way.
I would be interested to hear from those who voted Leave whether you feel content with how the negotiations are going. Leave aside the merits of the arguments as to the substance of deals or no deals, who should do what, pay what, or what not. Do you feel that this Government knows what it is doing? Are you comfortable with the fact that, past the half way point for the agreement of all Mr Davis' fab non EU trade deals, not a single one has even been started, let alone finished? Assume that you are still pro the idea of leaving, are any of you bothered by the state of things as they have in fact turned out? The few thoughtful and well informed Brexiteers that I know are candid in saying that they expect the economy to take a major hit after the leave date, but they say that they thought that was a price worth paying because they thought that we would get better Government. They now say that they think that is not happening, and seems very unlikely to happen, and wish that the vote had gone the other way.
Edited by anonymous-user on Thursday 21st September 15:34
Breadvan72 said:
The point was made on R4 this morning that many Brexiteers might cheer if banks and other financial services companies move offices and/or cut staff, but might that cheering be unwise? The tax that the City pays buys a fair chunk of NHS and so forth. Every reviled investment banker who leaves the UK or loses his or her job is someone whose job provides employment for support staff, caterers, couriers, printers, office cleaners, house cleaners, nannies, teachers, and a host of ancillary services eg data providers, software developers and so on. The same can be said for other business sectors that do invisible exports, for example the London legal services market. Legal services are currently benefiting from the uncertainties associated with Brexit, and this benefit will continue for a while yet, but London is at risk of losing some (not all) of its standing as an international legal services centre, partly because UK judgments will (absent a deal that appears unlikely) no longer be easily exportable to the EU once the UK exits. Dublin could cash in here if its gets its act together, as an English language common law legal system with Courts that can't be bribed, along with recognition of judgments across the EU, are attractive to businesses from the US, Canada and the Commonwealth.
I would be interested to hear from those who voted Leave whether you feel content with how the negotiations are going. Leave aside the merits of the arguments as to the substance of deals or no deals, who should do what, pay what, or what not. Do you feel that this Government knows what it is doing? Are you comfortable with the fact that, past the half way point for the agreement of all Mr Davis' fab non EU trade deals, not a single one has even been started, let alone finished? Assume that you are still pro the idea of leaving, are any of you bothered by the state of things as they have in fact turned out? The few thoughtful and well informed Brexiteers that I know are candid in saying that they expect the economy to take a major hit after the leave date, but they say that they thought that was a price worth paying because they thought that we would get better Government. They now say that they think that is not happening, and seems very unlikely to happen, and wish that the vote had gone the other way.
Are you on drugs or completely ignorant of the process?I would be interested to hear from those who voted Leave whether you feel content with how the negotiations are going. Leave aside the merits of the arguments as to the substance of deals or no deals, who should do what, pay what, or what not. Do you feel that this Government knows what it is doing? Are you comfortable with the fact that, past the half way point for the agreement of all Mr Davis' fab non EU trade deals, not a single one has even been started, let alone finished? Assume that you are still pro the idea of leaving, are any of you bothered by the state of things as they have in fact turned out? The few thoughtful and well informed Brexiteers that I know are candid in saying that they expect the economy to take a major hit after the leave date, but they say that they thought that was a price worth paying because they thought that we would get better Government. They now say that they think that is not happening, and seems very unlikely to happen, and wish that the vote had gone the other way.
Edited by Breadvan72 on Thursday 21st September 15:34
Why do you think anyone would be cheering on the loss of banking sector jobs, or any jobs for that matter?
David Davis job is not to sign new trade deals outside the EU.
The UK can not sign any trade deals with anyone until we have left the EU and are no longer members of the Customs Union. If, as I expect, we end up with a 2-3 year transitional deal, I would expect part of that deal will mean we cant implement any new trade deals with 3rd countries until that transition period is over.
Yes, I am happy with how Davis is handling the negotiation, I think everything I have seen so far is entirely predictable. I would like to see continued pressure by the UK to get the trade talks with the EU kicked off, because that is the part business care about most.
jsf said:
Yes, I am happy with how Davis is handling the negotiation, I think everything I have seen so far is entirely predictable. I would like to see continued pressure by the UK to get the trade talks with the EU kicked off, because that is the part business care about most.
Are you? Three rounds & no progress to speak of. Business increasingly noisy, clock ticking ever louder & cabinet riven with division. I'd hate to see what upsets you.Eddie Strohacker said:
Are you? Three rounds & no progress to speak of. Business increasingly noisy, clock ticking ever louder & cabinet riven with division. I'd hate to see what upsets you.
Yes I am, he is doing his job and leading his team appropriately. I would be more concerned if Barnier wasn't losing his cool in the post negotiation press briefings at this stage.As an engineer (you seem to think this is a bad thing when it comes to politics) I tend to be analytical and don't get flustered by bulls
t.jsf said:
Are you on drugs or completely ignorant of the process?
Why do you think anyone would be cheering on the loss of banking sector jobs, or any jobs for that matter?
David Davis job is not to sign new trade deals outside the EU.
The UK can not sign any trade deals with anyone until we have left the EU and are no longer members of the Customs Union. If, as I expect, we end up with a 2-3 year transitional deal, I would expect part of that deal will mean we cant implement any new trade deals with 3rd countries until that transition period is over.
Yes, I am happy with how Davis is handling the negotiation, I think everything I have seen so far is entirely predictable. I would like to see continued pressure by the UK to get the trade talks with the EU kicked off, because that is the part business care about most.
Well, there it is. I invited a calm discussion from thinking Brexiteers, and I got that. Oh well, predictable, if a little sad. Why do you think anyone would be cheering on the loss of banking sector jobs, or any jobs for that matter?
David Davis job is not to sign new trade deals outside the EU.
The UK can not sign any trade deals with anyone until we have left the EU and are no longer members of the Customs Union. If, as I expect, we end up with a 2-3 year transitional deal, I would expect part of that deal will mean we cant implement any new trade deals with 3rd countries until that transition period is over.
Yes, I am happy with how Davis is handling the negotiation, I think everything I have seen so far is entirely predictable. I would like to see continued pressure by the UK to get the trade talks with the EU kicked off, because that is the part business care about most.
I have a faint inkling that as I do some work for Government Departments I may know about as much about the process as you do and possibly even a tad more, but who knows? Davis claimed that negotiations for non EU trade deals would be half way done by a week or so ago. Negotiations have not even started. Trade deals generally take more than thirty minutes to negotiate. As for an EU trade deal, there remain big hurdles to be overcome before that can be discussed. I (sort of) admire your breezy optimism, which is very plucky Brit, but not so much your sense of realism.
jsf said:
Yes I am, he is doing his job and leading his team appropriately. I would be more concerned if Barnier wasn't losing his cool in the post negotiation press briefings at this stage.
As an engineer (you seem to think this is a bad thing when it comes to politics) I tend to be analytical and don't get flustered by bullst.
No I get what you're saying, the lack of progress is highly concerning to me. As I see it, we've had a massive period of inaction since the referendum, a government busy negotiating with itself to no conclusion, of which DD's fruitless endeavours are the manifestation.As an engineer (you seem to think this is a bad thing when it comes to politics) I tend to be analytical and don't get flustered by bulls
t.It's clear that the major impasse in all this is TM's dithering. What does she want? Pay the bill? Don't pay the bill? Hard, soft, red, white & blue? I follow this forensically closely & I couldn't tell you, in all good conscience.
On Barnier for a moment, I'm perplexed at the right's rancour towards him. His reputation is on the line with this. In France, I can't see him getting a big job under Macron as a Republican, so he needs this to work. It follows then that his best interests are served by striking a deal that works all round, achieving the mandate handed to him by the 27 heads of state and a deal that is palatable to the UK. Why he's a hate figure for some Brexiteers is a mystery to me.
Eddie Strohacker said:
jsf said:
Yes, I am happy with how Davis is handling the negotiation, I think everything I have seen so far is entirely predictable. I would like to see continued pressure by the UK to get the trade talks with the EU kicked off, because that is the part business care about most.
Are you? Three rounds & no progress to speak of. Business increasingly noisy, clock ticking ever louder & cabinet riven with division. I'd hate to see what upsets you.After all the EU wanted to suspend negotiations (allegedly) whilst the elections in Germany took place
Barnier represents the hated EU political system, which makes many leavers hate him on principle, and he is also doing the remarkably unsporting thing of negotiating rather than simply giving the Brits everything they want. The howls of protest from the leavers when they learn that cake cannot be both had and eaten are a bit piercing.
TM appears to be powerless and paralysed, and she is even at her best a weak and incompetent leader. She should have sacked Johnson, but apparently feels too weak to do so.
TM appears to be powerless and paralysed, and she is even at her best a weak and incompetent leader. She should have sacked Johnson, but apparently feels too weak to do so.
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