The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

[B'stard Child]

///ajd said:

We have so many threads now, but this used to be the right one for the economic discussion..

Since when has that meant anything to you?

[Dr Jekyll]

///ajd said:

Maybe Brexit has forced the EU wake up and get its act together on pushing for more trade deals to negate the U.K. trying to get ahead. It seems they have already shown here the effect of their extra clout - 460m vs 60m, as widely predicted.

It doesn't work like that. What do you think would engender the most resistance from US car manufacturers, tariff free imports from the EU or from the UK?

[///ajd]

Dr Jekyll said:

///ajd said:

Maybe Brexit has forced the EU wake up and get its act together on pushing for more trade deals to negate the U.K. trying to get ahead. It seems they have already shown here the effect of their extra clout - 460m vs 60m, as widely predicted.

It doesn't work like that. What do you think would engender the most resistance from US car manufacturers, tariff free imports from the EU or from the UK?

Turn it the other way around - would US companies like tariff free access to a market of 460m or 60m? Do US car manufacturers want their 10% tariffs dropping on the 60m market or the 460m market first?

This would impact all BMW X5 etc. production, ironically!

It does seem to work like that as Merkel has twisted Trumps arm, has she not?

"It has reportedly led to a ‘realisation’ in the White House that a trade deal with the EU, allowing for a tariff-free exchange of goods and services, would be more beneficial to the US than a post-Brexit deal with Britain."

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4434466/EU...

Obama was right to warn this was the case pre-referendum then. Shame he got called all those names etc. falsely.

[Tryke3]

It's ok we can trade with Zimbabwe silly

[London424]

Tryke3 said:

It's ok we can trade with Zimbabwe silly

I don't know if any of you have noticed but Trump will do and say anything positive about the most recent person that he meets.

He doesn't have an overal policy/doctrine...it's about what is going to benefit me now.

After meeting May it was UK is the best, then it was China, now it's the EU. Let's just wait and see what comes down the road shall we.

[jjlynn27]

Murph7355 said:

jjlynn27 said:

...they'd be realised by the likes of McKinsey, PwC, Deloitte. ...

Anecdotally of course, I'm not entirely convinced your confidence there is well placed.

Missed this first time around; Between the ones above and certified, rather simple Walter Mitty, I know where my money would be on who would be able to deliver what they say they could.

[Tryke3]

London424 said:

Tryke3 said:

It's ok we can trade with Zimbabwe silly

I don't know if any of you have noticed but Trump will do and say anything positive about the most recent person that he meets.

He doesn't have an overal policy/doctrine...it's about what is going to benefit me now.

After meeting May it was UK is the best, then it was China, now it's the EU. Let's just wait and see what comes down the road shall we.

Nothing will change, things will stay as they are because mostly, the system isn't broken. But you know it sounds good spouting st like that to uneducated dinasours , brexiters included

If you look at LePen in France she is doing the same to farmers. We think here they have it too good, they seem to think they never had it so bad. Not really sure where the truth lies

Edited by Tryke3 on Saturday 22 April 17:13

[Puggit]

"Latest CBI industrial survey for April: strongest growth in export orders in six years, non-EU exports rising at fastest pace on record."

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/8564705529402490...

[Fastdruid]

Puggit said:

"Latest CBI industrial survey for April: strongest growth in export orders in six years, non-EU exports rising at fastest pace on record."

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/8564705529402490...

Lets be honest, if you are a business owner (powerfully built or otherwise) and looking to increase exports where are you going to focus your efforts?

The EU where there is lots of uncertainty and it *might* all go to hell or the rest of the world where it could only improve?

[anonymous-user]

Puggit said:

"Latest CBI industrial survey for April: strongest growth in export orders in six years, non-EU exports rising at fastest pace on record."

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/8564705529402490...

"Jeremy Corbyn‏
@Official_Corbyn

Replying to @afneil

This brings joy to a man who secretly voted Leave but tells everyone he voted Remain."

[Digga]

Fastdruid said:

Puggit said:

"Latest CBI industrial survey for April: strongest growth in export orders in six years, non-EU exports rising at fastest pace on record."

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/8564705529402490...

Lets be honest, if you are a business owner (powerfully built or otherwise) and looking to increase exports where are you going to focus your efforts?

The EU where there is lots of uncertainty and it *might* all go to hell or the rest of the world where it could only improve?

Very often though, the actual situation is arse about face; it's not the powerfully built directs forging new trade links, it's the people in the export markets who, knowing their sums and exchange rates, decide to look to the UK for procurement where, previously they might not have.

[London424]

Well this is going to upset a few.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/eu-trad...

[B'stard Child]

London424 said:

Well this is going to upset a few.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/eu-trad...

Waits to see if The Guardian spin that round enough for slasher to post it

[Blue Oval84]

Are tariffs still deemed to be a particularly big deal?

Today's post on eureferendum.com illustrates the huge problems that non-tariff barriers pose to, in the example quoted, the Scotch Whiskey industry. He demonstrated how labelling requirements in India can make it very, very hard to export there.

So is it the case that tariffs really are the cruicial factor and Dr North is wrong? Or is it actually the case that tariffs are nothing but a minor side issue and that the non-tariff barriers are the potential showstoppers (for example under current rules most milk export from NI to ROI would cease post-brexit).

If the latter, what if any attention are the goverment paying to the non-tariff barriers? All I ever seem to read about in the press is bloody tariffs!

[Smollet]

London424 said:

Well this is going to upset a few.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/eu-trad...

Oh dear. Well that's just unfair. I mean how could they? Bloody EU

[Digga]

Smollet said:

London424 said:

Well this is going to upset a few.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/eu-trad...

Oh dear. Well that's just unfair. I mean how could they? Bloody EU

I'm really glad. Anything else would have been tantamount to cutting noses off to spite faces - a 'war' that would leave both sides the poorer for having engaged in it and, therefore, something entirely nihilistic, even if it ran with dogma.

[Mrr T]

Smollet said:

London424 said:

Well this is going to upset a few.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/eu-trad...

Oh dear. Well that's just unfair. I mean how could they? Bloody EU

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/26/deutsche-bank-4000-jobs-at-risk-of-being-moved-out-of-uk-after-brexit

[don'tbesilly]

Mrr T said:

Smollet said:

London424 said:

Well this is going to upset a few.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/eu-trad...

Oh dear. Well that's just unfair. I mean how could they? Bloody EU

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/26/deutsche-bank-4000-jobs-at-risk-of-being-moved-out-of-uk-after-brexit

The Guardian must have a stock article on their 'J' drive.
Once every couple of months a journo opens up the stock one and personalizes it and makes it their own.

I read something similar in May 2016, and the moves were going to take place immediately should the UK vote to leave the EU in June.

I'd imagine we'll see another similar story in the next two months, probably just after May routs both Labour and the Lib-Dems on the 8th June.

I'm sure either Mrr T or ///ajd will post the link, keep your eyes open for it week commencing June 12th.

[Mrr T]

don'tbesilly said:

Mrr T said:

Smollet said:

London424 said:

Well this is going to upset a few.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/eu-trad...

Oh dear. Well that's just unfair. I mean how could they? Bloody EU

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/26/deutsche-bank-4000-jobs-at-risk-of-being-moved-out-of-uk-after-brexit

The Guardian must have a stock article on their 'J' drive.
Once every couple of months a journo opens up the stock one and personalizes it and makes it their own.

I read something similar in May 2016, and the moves were going to take place immediately should the UK vote to leave the EU in June.

I'd imagine we'll see another similar story in the next two months, probably just after May routs both Labour and the Lib-Dems on the 8th June.

I'm sure either Mrr T or ///ajd will post the link, keep your eyes open for it week commencing June 12th.

So the Telegraph story which is positive for Brexit is correct but the Guardian story which is not must therefore be wrong?

[zygalski]

Mrr T said:

So the Telegraph story which is positive for Brexit is correct but the Guardian story which is not must therefore be wrong?

No, silly. the 4000 jobs would have gone regardless of Brexit & they're just using it as an excuse.