The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)
Discussion
///ajd said:
Its dangerous as the tories are clearly taking a line to keep hardline brexiteers happy - perhaps on the basis they see that as a safe source of votes.
The problem is that looking tough infront of hardliners could be detrimental to our negotiations - indeed there is already talk from some near the frontline of not paying.
Of course I don't want to see the UK get a poor or expensive deal - one of the reasons to remain of course as the risk of having little practical choice is so significant.
The problem is we may be given little choice - we're about to see who has the stronger cards and has the upper hand. How long can Merkel keep saying "pay up or no trade talks"? I suspect longer than we can afford to keep being bolshy.
And this is the danger - faced with losing face and having to capitulate to the EU, some in this govt like Fox (he has been quiet recently, no? gagged?) would quite happily crash out in a tantrum rather than try and get a trade deal. They really don't seem to care about the likely negative consequences.
Do you really think we can expect a good deal if we don't settle what we have committed to, at least in part or on a basis the EU might consider fair?
Surely it's what we agree is 'fair' too?The problem is that looking tough infront of hardliners could be detrimental to our negotiations - indeed there is already talk from some near the frontline of not paying.
Of course I don't want to see the UK get a poor or expensive deal - one of the reasons to remain of course as the risk of having little practical choice is so significant.
The problem is we may be given little choice - we're about to see who has the stronger cards and has the upper hand. How long can Merkel keep saying "pay up or no trade talks"? I suspect longer than we can afford to keep being bolshy.
And this is the danger - faced with losing face and having to capitulate to the EU, some in this govt like Fox (he has been quiet recently, no? gagged?) would quite happily crash out in a tantrum rather than try and get a trade deal. They really don't seem to care about the likely negative consequences.
Do you really think we can expect a good deal if we don't settle what we have committed to, at least in part or on a basis the EU might consider fair?
sidicks said:
///ajd said:
There has to be a mutual agreement.
Exactly! So not just what the EU consider to be fair.///ajd said:
And the bill seems unlikely to be considered anywhere "nil" by the EU.
And they will hold out.
Why wouldn't they?
Why won't we hold out too, for what we think is fair?And they will hold out.
Why wouldn't they?
Tryke3 said:
Digga said:
Massively, gruntingly simple assessment of it.
The truth is, despite leaving the EU, the UK will continue to be European, whether the UK or the EU likes it or not. The complex web of multi-national business makes the efficacy, and therefore also the likelihood of a scorched earth policy (on either side) slim.
I'm not being trying to simply anything, find writing essays on the internet extremely boring and a waste. Once we leave the EU the EU will not want us to be European, regardless of what we hope for The truth is, despite leaving the EU, the UK will continue to be European, whether the UK or the EU likes it or not. The complex web of multi-national business makes the efficacy, and therefore also the likelihood of a scorched earth policy (on either side) slim.
What're they going to do? Rearrange the tectonic plates and rename the continents to leave us, Russia and many others out.
They probably think they can do that.......
///ajd said:
don'tbesilly said:
Can you outline why you think it's dangerous?
Do you think that what ever figure the EU conjure up the UK should pay?
Its dangerous as the tories are clearly taking a line to keep hardline brexiteers happy - perhaps on the basis they see that as a safe source of votes. Do you think that what ever figure the EU conjure up the UK should pay?
The problem is that looking tough infront of hardliners could be detrimental to our negotiations - indeed there is already talk from some near the frontline of not paying.
Of course I don't want to see the UK get a poor or expensive deal - one of the reasons to remain of course as the risk of having little practical choice is so significant.
The problem is we may be given little choice - we're about to see who has the stronger cards and has the upper hand. How long can Merkel keep saying "pay up or no trade talks"? I suspect longer than we can afford to keep being bolshy.
And this is the danger - faced with losing face and having to capitulate to the EU, some in this govt like Fox (he has been quiet recently, no? gagged?) would quite happily crash out in a tantrum rather than try and get a trade deal. They really don't seem to care about the likely negative consequences.
Do you really think we can expect a good deal if we don't settle what we have committed to, at least in part or on a basis the EU might consider fair?
tty overrated cars and being in the customs union so we have our hands tied when we could be doing deals in the big wide world , so
WTO would be better ... but the best way would be to stand firm and let the Europeans who's jobs are dependent on our custom do the shouting and let them decide which side the bread is buttered ...
///ajd said:
don'tbesilly said:
Can you outline why you think it's dangerous?
Do you think that what ever figure the EU conjure up the UK should pay?
Its dangerous as the tories are clearly taking a line to keep hardline brexiteers happy - perhaps on the basis they see that as a safe source of votes. Do you think that what ever figure the EU conjure up the UK should pay?
The problem is that looking tough infront of hardliners could be detrimental to our negotiations - indeed there is already talk from some near the frontline of not paying.
Of course I don't want to see the UK get a poor or expensive deal - one of the reasons to remain of course as the risk of having little practical choice is so significant.
The problem is we may be given little choice - we're about to see who has the stronger cards and has the upper hand. How long can Merkel keep saying "pay up or no trade talks"? I suspect longer than we can afford to keep being bolshy.
And this is the danger - faced with losing face and having to capitulate to the EU, some in this govt like Fox (he has been quiet recently, no? gagged?) would quite happily crash out in a tantrum rather than try and get a trade deal. They really don't seem to care about the likely negative consequences.
Do you really think we can expect a good deal if we don't settle what we have committed to, at least in part or on a basis the EU might consider fair?
I think you'll find no-one has said it wouldn't be paid.
If however the claims are exaggerated or unjustifiable there is no reason why any sum the EU conjure up should be paid, any sane person would I would imagine find such a stance not unreasonable.
It seems that every day that goes by the EU come up with a reason for a bigger bill, or a condition that must be met before trade talks can commence.
At the start the EU demanded the divorce bill was settled before trade talks could start, it now seems the EU is using Ireland as the stumbling block to talks.
As a rabid EU fan it's no surprise you're a great fan of the EU's approach, an approach that others see as nothing other than bullying.
You see capitulation to what could be seen as unreasonable demands by the EU and at any cost as a sensible way forward, you do this by constantly questioning the Brexit teams competency in the upcoming negotiations despite no evidence to support your theory.
I've asked this question before and it went answered, can you give us some examples of where the Brexit Team, and in particular the negotiators, have failed in the past in negotiating the UK's exit from the EU.
Admittedly it's a daft question and one you can't answer, which rather destroys your theory that the Brexit Team are incompetent.
Feel free with your quest, and your support of the Lib - Dems to thwart brexit.
It seems rather ironic the party call themselves the Liberal - Democrats when Farron is anything but and more a contradiction.
I rather suspect what they currently stand for will in fact prove to be their downfall, rather than their revival, but you get what you deserve, and the polls seem to indicate the upcoming failure of their plan.
///ajd said:
sidicks said:
///ajd said:
Who can wait longest? Do the EU have to give in at all?
How are they going to make us pay?ked financially and they can't do anything. The UK can mess around with tax rates, run a deficit, manipulate currency etc. ///ajd said:
sidicks said:
///ajd said:
Who can wait longest? Do the EU have to give in at all?
How are they going to make us pay?https://newsexplored.co.uk/brexit-is-already-hurti...
///ajd said:
There has to be a mutual agreement.
And the bill seems unlikely to be considered anywhere "nil" by the EU.
If this is true, and we really have been accruing liabilities that our £200m a week contribution didn't cover. Does this mean that the £350m figure wasn't that far out after all?And the bill seems unlikely to be considered anywhere "nil" by the EU.
sidicks said:
///ajd said:
Does this mean you think they need a trade deal more than us?
Or aren't you saying that? Are you just disagreeeing while saying nothing?
Can you see the EU saying "ok, forget your liabilities let's talk trade"
///ajd said:
sidicks said:
///ajd said:
Does this mean you think they need a trade deal more than us?
Or aren't you saying that? Are you just disagreeeing while saying nothing?
Can you see the EU saying "ok, forget your liabilities let's talk trade"
///ajd said:
sidicks said:
///ajd said:
Does this mean you think they need a trade deal more than us?
Or aren't you saying that? Are you just disagreeeing while saying nothing?
Can you see the EU saying "ok, forget your liabilities let's talk trade"
I have clashed with sidicks in the past and I like the way he takes the time to dissect ones comment and usually backs it up with factual substance.
He can come across as blunt but he usually argues his corner well and usually with appropriate references.
So many posters,myself included,post comments on "gut" opinion without taking the trouble to research the subject.
AJD you come across as passionate in your views and good for you but on this subject we really will not know how it will pan out until the fat lady sings.
At the moment it's a game of poker and both parties need to keep their cards hidden.
///ajd said:
Classic Sidicks
Does this mean you think they need a trade deal more than us?
Or aren't you saying that? Are you just disagreeeing while saying nothing?
Can you see the EU saying "ok, forget your liabilities let's talk trade"
As usual, you claim that all the cards are with the EU and the UK just has to accept what it is given, which is clearly not the case. Further, your insistence that anyone that dares to disagree with you has a binary opinion in the opposite direction is also tiresome.Does this mean you think they need a trade deal more than us?
Or aren't you saying that? Are you just disagreeeing while saying nothing?
Can you see the EU saying "ok, forget your liabilities let's talk trade"
Both sides need a deal, both sides have something to bring to the table, and hence common sense will prevail.
compromise
NOUN
1. An agreement or settlement of a dispute that is reached by each side making concessions.
HTH
Edited by sidicks on Saturday 29th April 09:43
sidicks said:
As usual, you claim that all the cards are with the EU and the UK just has to accept what it is given, which is clearly not the case. Further, your insistence that anyone that dares to disagree with you has a binary opinion in the opposite direction is also tiresome.
Both sides need a deal, both sides have something to bring to the table, and hence common sense will prevail.
I agree that some compromise will be required.Both sides need a deal, both sides have something to bring to the table, and hence common sense will prevail.
The "problem" is that it would be much easier if we "didn't have to start from here" as the Irish joke says.
Both the EU and the U.K. have a very hard job if they are to satisfy the demands of their electorate,not that satisfying people's demands ever much figure in the scheme of things.
The EU cannot make it to easy on the UK for fear of the electorate of other EU countries wanting to leave and the U.K. have the Brexiteers to satisfy.
Personally I think the UK will have to agree to gradually ease out of the EU,over say a 5 year period,honouring some financial commitments that we had "agreed "to.
Someone ,referring to business practice,once said "always leave something for the other man".
I like that way of doing business,as for me any agreement must be mutually advantageous to both parties.
avinalarf said:
Both the EU and the U.K. have a very hard job if they are to satisfy the demands of their electorate
The EU top brass don't have an 'electorate' to be concerned about. We have never seen the names Juncker or Tusk or others of their dead weight on any UK ballot paper to elect them for their EU role and neither has anyone else in other member states. They are only concerned about their own pet project, their ego and their platinum plated pension.avinalarf said:
The EU cannot make it to easy on the UK for fear of the electorate of other EU countries wanting to leave and the U.K. have the Brexiteers to satisfy.
Why would the EU ever need to do this if membership of the club was so attractive and beneficial to all member states? It's quite remarkable that this sort of thing is mentioned in passing as though it doesn't tell the entire story that the EU act as megalomaniac prison warders doing what it takes to stop escapes. avinalarf said:
...any agreement must be mutually advantageous to both parties....
That's exactly what sidicks was saying, and something of a u-turn on your part.Your post, quite possibly unwittingly, shows why it's absolutely brilliant that we're on the way out of the madhouse.
EU negotiating outline - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/31_03_1...
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