The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

[Mr GrimNasty]

But they're going to take their Euro clearing away, like a petulant child. Booo Hoooo.

[anonymous-user]

Mr GrimNasty said:

But they're going to take their Euro clearing away, like a petulant child. Booo Hoooo.

I think you will find the markets think otherwise.

[Murph7355]

Mr GrimNasty said:

But they're going to take their Euro clearing away, like a petulant child. Booo Hoooo.

Depends what week/day of the week it is.

Last week I heard reports that it was likely to stay here as long as caveats/conditions were put in place that allowed the EU to move it later (I assume for if/when they ever managed to get the expertise needed to reside in Frankfurt (no thanks, would rather live in Birmingham) or Paris (nice enough city, silly enough taxes at present).

None of it is over 'til the fat lady sings.

[Likes Fast Cars]

Murph7355 said:

Mr GrimNasty said:

But they're going to take their Euro clearing away, like a petulant child. Booo Hoooo.

Depends what week/day of the week it is.

Last week I heard reports that it was likely to stay here as long as caveats/conditions were put in place that allowed the EU to move it later (I assume for if/when they ever managed to get the expertise needed to reside in Frankfurt (no thanks, would rather live in Birmingham) or Paris (nice enough city, silly enough taxes at present).

None of it is over 'til the fat lady sings.

Let's assume Euro clearing does move away from the UK and the decision is taken today, for example.

The logistics alone will take longer than the 2 year Brexit process; to start to get anything in place first they need to decide where (st fight internally between France & Germany??), then the logistics of IT systems relocation, real estate / office, relocation and new employee terms, etc., and as Murph says getting people to relocate to Frankfurt (yuk!), even Paris (high taxes anyone?), to fill the vacant roles needed, takes time. Training the newbies will mean extra costs to transition.....

Not so simple!

[anonymous-user]

Likes Fast Cars said:

Murph7355 said:

Mr GrimNasty said:

But they're going to take their Euro clearing away, like a petulant child. Booo Hoooo.

Depends what week/day of the week it is.

Last week I heard reports that it was likely to stay here as long as caveats/conditions were put in place that allowed the EU to move it later (I assume for if/when they ever managed to get the expertise needed to reside in Frankfurt (no thanks, would rather live in Birmingham) or Paris (nice enough city, silly enough taxes at present).

None of it is over 'til the fat lady sings.

Let's assume Euro clearing does move away from the UK and the decision is taken today, for example.

The logistics alone will take longer than the 2 year Brexit process; to start to get anything in place first they need to decide where (st fight internally between France & Germany??), then the logistics of IT systems relocation, real estate / office, relocation and new employee terms, etc., and as Murph says getting people to relocate to Frankfurt (yuk!), even Paris (high taxes anyone?), to fill the vacant roles needed, takes time. Training the newbies will mean extra costs to transition.....

Not so simple!

The markets simply wont allow it. The USA is equally as important as the UK in how Euro clearing operates, it would be hugely damaging to the EU if they tried to fight the markets on this.

It would mean taking on the USA and ending equivalency agreements with the USA and Asia if the EU insisted in the Euro clearing house had to reside in the EU, currently there is an equivalency agreement with the USA which allows New York and the major Asian centres to also handle Euro clearing.

The EU would grind to a halt if these agreements ended. Sure, they could do it, but it would be an act of financial suicide. http://www.cityam.com/259658/clear-off-city-london...

[Murph7355]

jsf said:

The markets simply wont allow it. The USA is equally as important as the UK in how Euro clearing operates, it would be hugely damaging to the EU if they tried to fight the markets on this.

It would mean taking on the USA and ending equivalency agreements with the USA and Asia if the EU insisted in the Euro clearing house had to reside in the EU, currently there is an equivalency agreement with the USA which allows New York and the major Asian centres to also handle Euro clearing.

The EU would grind to a halt if these agreements ended. Sure, they could do it, but it would be an act of financial suicide. http://www.cityam.com/259658/clear-off-city-london...

But but but but but...passporting.

?

!

[Likes Fast Cars]

Murph7355 said:

jsf said:

The markets simply wont allow it. The USA is equally as important as the UK in how Euro clearing operates, it would be hugely damaging to the EU if they tried to fight the markets on this.

It would mean taking on the USA and ending equivalency agreements with the USA and Asia if the EU insisted in the Euro clearing house had to reside in the EU, currently there is an equivalency agreement with the USA which allows New York and the major Asian centres to also handle Euro clearing.

The EU would grind to a halt if these agreements ended. Sure, they could do it, but it would be an act of financial suicide. http://www.cityam.com/259658/clear-off-city-london...

But but but but but...passporting.

?

!

Yes well I didn't even want to get into the US clearing, AFAIK there is a load of US-Euro clearing which will stay in the UK (as you've indicated).

As for passporting, I think (hope) reality will soon dawn on the Eurocrats and EU politicians that they will find it very difficult to just dig their heels in and try to punish the UK; the Repeal Bill proposal will ensure the standards and regulations (at least in the very short term) remain unchanged making it difficult for the EU to argue financial markets cannot be accessed for reasons of regulatory (non)-compliance. As you say, they are also taking on the USA and others and it will seriously backfire against them.

The whole EU negotiating stance is an ambit demand for Brexit their own terms, they will need to back down IMO.

[Burwood]

It is amusing reading the broad sheets. Davis says 'got off to a great start', Barnier says ' no concessions and expect severe consequences'. why don't they STFU and do their jobs instead of grandstanding. Im eagerly awaiting the divorce bill. should be worth a laugh.

[SunsetZed]

Burwood said:

It is amusing reading the broad sheets. Davis says 'got off to a great start', Barnier says ' no concessions and expect severe consequences'. why don't they STFU and do their jobs instead of grandstanding. Im eagerly awaiting the divorce bill. should be worth a laugh.

Sadly in modern day politics grandstanding is a large part of their jobs

[Likes Fast Cars]

threespires said:

A Corbin government next election and the loss off free trade with our biggest market.
We're all doomed, leave now.

Cheer up, could be worse if we had Cor-blimey in power now.

[hyphen]

Burwood said:

It is amusing reading the broad sheets. Davis says 'got off to a great start', Barnier says ' no concessions and expect severe consequences'. why don't they STFU and do their jobs instead of grandstanding. Im eagerly awaiting the divorce bill. should be worth a laugh.

They are politicians. STFU is not part of their job and grandstanding is. The people behind the scenes who will actually do all the real work involved in this trade deal will be STFU and doing their jobs.

[Tryke3]

jsf said:

Likes Fast Cars said:

Murph7355 said:

Mr GrimNasty said:

But they're going to take their Euro clearing away, like a petulant child. Booo Hoooo.

Depends what week/day of the week it is.

Last week I heard reports that it was likely to stay here as long as caveats/conditions were put in place that allowed the EU to move it later (I assume for if/when they ever managed to get the expertise needed to reside in Frankfurt (no thanks, would rather live in Birmingham) or Paris (nice enough city, silly enough taxes at present).

None of it is over 'til the fat lady sings.

Let's assume Euro clearing does move away from the UK and the decision is taken today, for example.

The logistics alone will take longer than the 2 year Brexit process; to start to get anything in place first they need to decide where (st fight internally between France & Germany??), then the logistics of IT systems relocation, real estate / office, relocation and new employee terms, etc., and as Murph says getting people to relocate to Frankfurt (yuk!), even Paris (high taxes anyone?), to fill the vacant roles needed, takes time. Training the newbies will mean extra costs to transition.....

Not so simple!

The markets simply wont allow it. The USA is equally as important as the UK in how Euro clearing operates, it would be hugely damaging to the EU if they tried to fight the markets on this.

It would mean taking on the USA and ending equivalency agreements with the USA and Asia if the EU insisted in the Euro clearing house had to reside in the EU, currently there is an equivalency agreement with the USA which allows New York and the major Asian centres to also handle Euro clearing.

The EU would grind to a halt if these agreements ended. Sure, they could do it, but it would be an act of financial suicide. http://www.cityam.com/259658/clear-off-city-london...

Yeah, because the people who had this idea just woke up one day and said, yep lets move some financial services from the UK to the EU. I am really impressed with your inderstanding of such matters, parhaps you would fit right in with David Davies

Rolls Royce are very worried, put it this way, we are crumblimg already in fron of the negotiators, we will get our oants down and hard rear access with no lube will be the order of business .

I will bet immigration wont even be discussed and that brings me to wonder what is the point of this st show

[Murph7355]

Burwood said:

It is amusing reading the broad sheets. Davis says 'got off to a great start', Barnier says ' no concessions and expect severe consequences'. why don't they STFU and do their jobs instead of grandstanding. Im eagerly awaiting the divorce bill. should be worth a laugh.

Because we/our press demand it. We have only ourselves to blame.

Watch the full link posted above and reconcile that with the article you read. It was clear to me that some journalists are looking to create news where there is none. They thrive off conflict and if it doesn't exist, will try and generate some.

Seeing them talk directly is the only way to observe this. Then make your own mind up. That is essentially what both Davis and Barnet said (in a pretty balanced exchange. Though I do think Barnier got the more flustered).

[anonymous-user]

Tryke3 said:

Rolls Royce are very worried

Are they, about what?

[stongle]

Murph7355 said:

jsf said:

The markets simply wont allow it. The USA is equally as important as the UK in how Euro clearing operates, it would be hugely damaging to the EU if they tried to fight the markets on this.

It would mean taking on the USA and ending equivalency agreements with the USA and Asia if the EU insisted in the Euro clearing house had to reside in the EU, currently there is an equivalency agreement with the USA which allows New York and the major Asian centres to also handle Euro clearing.

The EU would grind to a halt if these agreements ended. Sure, they could do it, but it would be an act of financial suicide. http://www.cityam.com/259658/clear-off-city-london...

But but but but but...passporting.

?

!

I think quite a few people have been quite surprised how bullish the EC and even ESMA have been about this. The risk to financial stability is simply too great; and it shows again how out of touch the EC is when it comes to the global economy.

Passporting is becoming the biggest joke in history, after why did the chicken... The latest US moves to drop "Gold Plating" of regulations - particularly around BASEL - is going to decimate the European banking sector. If (and when) Goldman pitches up with a sub of GSI in Frankfurt with an equivalent capital, leverage and liquidity base as the local banks its curtains.

Neither the EC nor the UK can afford to fight a face saving skirmish over Fin Services with the latest US policy proposals. It gets worse if they can overturn Volcker (unlikely I think).

[///ajd]

Yes, yes, the indie. But it reports the SMMT is getting impatient; are their views being misreported?


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/br...

[jjlynn27]

///ajd said:

Yes, yes, the indie. But it reports the SMMT is getting impatient; are their views being misreported?


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/br...

SMMT are saying the same for a while. Stock reply is 'project fear'.

[hyphen]

///ajd said:

Yes, yes, the indie. But it reports the SMMT is getting impatient; are their views being misreported?


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/br...

Papers will continue to print anything they will get a click on/paper sold. It is best to ignore most of it and wait to see what deal pans out.

Edited by hyphen on Tuesday 20th June 21:22

[Murph7355]

£1,500 per car?

We could give that to ///ajd so he can fund private medical and not have to rely on the NHS when we finally leave and he really strains something

[Liokault]

jjlynn27 said:

///ajd said:

Yes, yes, the indie. But it reports the SMMT is getting impatient; are their views being misreported?


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/br...

SMMT are saying the same for a while. Stock reply is 'project fear'.

Am I missing something in that report? They say that imported cars will increase in price by £1500 but they imply that this threatens the 750k auto industry jobs in the UK.

How is a price increase on imports not great for the domestic market (I type this from BMW Munich, as a lifer long automotive guy).