The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

[alfie2244]

Wayne E Edge said:

turbobloke said:

Wayne E Edge said:

I'm certainly not going to get behind something that in my opinion is a suicide mission.

Not wishing to pry but does that mean you're quitting the UK before or around the time of Brexit? Otherwise how will you not in reality 'be behind it' colletively speaking when others are calling the shots?

Very astute of you.

Slasher takes in lodgers and may even have a gite he could rent to you in the short term.

[Wayne E Edge]

I really don't understand the Brexiteers' belligerence to us remainers.

House is on the market, so see how it goes.

[Wayne E Edge]

alfie2244 said:

Wayne E Edge said:

turbobloke said:

Wayne E Edge said:

I'm certainly not going to get behind something that in my opinion is a suicide mission.

Not wishing to pry but does that mean you're quitting the UK before or around the time of Brexit? Otherwise how will you not in reality 'be behind it' colletively speaking when others are calling the shots?

Very astute of you.

Slasher takes in lodgers and may even have a gite he could rent to you in the short term.

who is Slasher?

[anonymous-user]

Wayne E Edge said:

I really don't understand the Brexiteers' belligerence to us remainers.

House is on the market, so see how it goes.

<Cough> Some of us didn't actually vote because we no longer reside in the UK because we made the leap without any prior biased opinion. However we feel we also have the self confidence to comment on being able to see through the complete and utter tripe peddled (mostly) by the remain tribe from an outside perspective. <cough>

[alfie2244]

Wayne E Edge said:

alfie2244 said:

Wayne E Edge said:

turbobloke said:

Wayne E Edge said:

I'm certainly not going to get behind something that in my opinion is a suicide mission.

Not wishing to pry but does that mean you're quitting the UK before or around the time of Brexit? Otherwise how will you not in reality 'be behind it' colletively speaking when others are calling the shots?

Very astute of you.

Slasher takes in lodgers and may even have a gite he could rent to you in the short term.

who is Slasher?

Who is Slasher??

You will find out if anyone dares to re-qoute this post once more

[Wayne E Edge]

DoubleTime said:

<Cough> Some of us didn't actually vote because we no longer reside in the UK because we made the leap without any prior biased opinion. However we feel we also have the self confidence to comment on being able to see through the complete and utter tripe peddled (mostly) by the remain tribe from an outside perspective. <cough>

What positives thus far have happened since the referendum?

What negatives thus far have happened since the referendum?

I don't want to keep beating this drum, you lot don't like it. So in reference to the last two questions, it isn't tripe peddled by the remainers because I can only see the latter having merit.

I would like nothing more than the UK to be successful after Brexit, after all I will still have interests here. Some seem to think we remainers don't like the UK.

[anonymous-user]

Wayne E Edge said:

What positives thus far have happened since the referendum?

What negatives thus far have happened since the referendum?

I don't want to keep beating this drum, you lot don't like it. So in reference to the last two questions, it isn't tripe peddled by the remainers because I can only see the latter having merit.

I would like nothing more than the UK to be successful after Brexit, after all I will still have interests here. Some seem to think we remainers don't like the UK.

Are you ready? OK, here we go....

A good solid friend of mine who did several years in the city and now in Singapore having worked within the top investment banks (think germanic names and you're on it) quoted both the GBP and top 4 UK bank share prices as a key indicator. He has since rescinded in his opinion.

Top 4 banks - how are the share prices looking? Over a 5 year period. How do they look? Yes, that's right, all but one are performing exceptionally well. Duck and cover!!!!

You, specifically quoted the GBP vs the Euro. You do realise the relationship that exists between importing and exporting don't you? Need I REALLY explain more? Can you understand basic economics?

[Wayne E Edge]

All looks rosy then. I can relax.

Why bring 5 years into the equation? The referendum was lat year. Maybe the the previous 4 years were 'carrying' the last year? Maybe there is a lag? I think this nullifies your rebuttal.

Import/Export - maybe it could lead to further devalue our currency? that's what you're hinting at? Is that good? If so, why not get the GBP to half of EURO value?

Inane comment, I know.

Edited by Wayne E Edge on Friday 21st July 21:19

[turbobloke]

Wayne E Edge said:

What positives thus far have happened since the referendum?

What negatives thus far have happened since the referendum?

That's overly simplistic, some happenings are good for one group and bad for another e.g. the value of GBP in terms of importing and exporting. Also average house price rises are good for some but not for others.

BBC website said:

Before the referendum last June, many economists produced gloomy forecasts which have since been proved wrong. Consumers' confidence has not suffered, and by and large, things have gone on as before.

The value of GBP has fallen, boosting export sales but increasing the cost of some imports

Tourist income has increased with a record number of visitors in 2016

The UK economy grew by more than previously reported in the final three months of 2016 and was still growing in Q1 2017 based on the second revision

The UK has enjoyed record employment and hiring has continued.

The FTSE recovered quickly and reached a new record

The FTSE 250 recovered and has hit a new record

Mortgages are generally cheaper

House price rises have slowed but continued

eCommerce growth has been spearheaded by mobile sales

In the 3 months to June 2017, volume in the retail industry grew by 1.5% with increases across all store types

CPI was 2.6% in June 2017, down from 2.7% in May

Pay when adjusted for inflation fell by 0.6% year on year in the three months to April 2017 remaining behind inflation

Household real spending increased (by 0.3%) quarter-on-quarter in Q1

Some factors have been impacted by the 2017 GE more than the referendum eg consumer confidence which dipped after the time of the BBC article quoted above.

Also

There was no instant emergency budget with £30bn of tax rises and spending cuts

There was no year-long recession, or any recession, starting in 2016

GDP did not fall quickly by 2.5%

Western political civilisation did not end

No comment needed on the silly job loss forecasts - see above.


Overall this picture is far from the instant gloom and doom messages from Project Fear.

[anonymous-user]

Wayne E Edge said:

At least we Brits will be holidaying together and get as much as each other's company that one could wish for if the pound tumbles any further. Still, there must be another reason for it other than Brexit - the blind faith it will all be rosy on here is staggering.

I think it is a refusal for some people to acknowledge that maybe, just maybe we voted the wrong way.

Oh well, in for a penny, in for a pound..... because the former there is what our pound will be worth soon.

In all honesty, I would think carefully about moving to France. My oldest friend, (in both senses!) has had two properties out there since the late 90s. He also maintained a home in the UK.

He was spending most of his time in France but, since the vote, he's sold one of his places and the other is up for sale. It's much too expensive and not because of the fall in the pound, which of course was in his favour with his sale. Taxes on foreign residents, the generally high cost of living, the local attitudes towards immigrants all went to persuade him.

With Macron in, promising more integration with Germany, massive public sector reform etc., to try to solve the already painful unemployment and social issues, it looks like there's going to be serious unrest in the short to medium term. It's not going to be a pleasant place to be.

By all means emigrate but France? Really?

[FiF]

REALIST123 said:

Wayne E Edge said:

At least we Brits will be holidaying together and get as much as each other's company that one could wish for if the pound tumbles any further. Still, there must be another reason for it other than Brexit - the blind faith it will all be rosy on here is staggering.

I think it is a refusal for some people to acknowledge that maybe, just maybe we voted the wrong way.

Oh well, in for a penny, in for a pound..... because the former there is what our pound will be worth soon.

In all honesty, I would think carefully about moving to France. My oldest friend, (in both senses!) has had two properties out there since the late 90s. He also maintained a home in the UK.

He was spending most of his time in France but, since the vote, he's sold one of his places and the other is up for sale. It's much too expensive and not because of the fall in the pound, which of course was in his favour with his sale. Taxes on foreign residents, the generally high cost of living, the local attitudes towards immigrants all went to persuade him.

With Macron in, promising more integration with Germany, massive public sector reform etc., to try to solve the already painful unemployment and social issues, it looks like there's going to be serious unrest in the short to medium term. It's not going to be a pleasant place to be.

By all means emigrate but France? Really?

Perhaps he thinks France is like it was back when such as when some budding author emigrated to Provence decades ago.

Is that doing it right, i.e. smarmy suggestions that people want to go back to a theoretically idyllic time, just like when some joker recently proposed Brexiters want to go back to 1942, a really idyllic time, or then maybe not.

[///ajd]

FiF said:

REALIST123 said:

Wayne E Edge said:

At least we Brits will be holidaying together and get as much as each other's company that one could wish for if the pound tumbles any further. Still, there must be another reason for it other than Brexit - the blind faith it will all be rosy on here is staggering.

I think it is a refusal for some people to acknowledge that maybe, just maybe we voted the wrong way.

Oh well, in for a penny, in for a pound..... because the former there is what our pound will be worth soon.

In all honesty, I would think carefully about moving to France. My oldest friend, (in both senses!) has had two properties out there since the late 90s. He also maintained a home in the UK.

He was spending most of his time in France but, since the vote, he's sold one of his places and the other is up for sale. It's much too expensive and not because of the fall in the pound, which of course was in his favour with his sale. Taxes on foreign residents, the generally high cost of living, the local attitudes towards immigrants all went to persuade him.

With Macron in, promising more integration with Germany, massive public sector reform etc., to try to solve the already painful unemployment and social issues, it looks like there's going to be serious unrest in the short to medium term. It's not going to be a pleasant place to be.

By all means emigrate but France? Really?

Perhaps he thinks France is like it was back when such as when some budding author emigrated to Provence decades ago.

Is that doing it right, i.e. smarmy suggestions that people want to go back to a theoretically idyllic time, just like when some joker recently proposed Brexiters want to go back to 1942, a really idyllic time, or then maybe not.

Perhaps he's tried it and liked France.

Presumably REALIST has lived in France and speaks from direct experience or how bad it is. It would be a bit daft to be so prejudiced against the idea without having tried it so assume he has. If he has though I do wonder how he carried on to have such an experience. Maybe he failed to integrate....

Or is the "French hating immigrants" thing just something he read in the Daily Mail?

Of course, France does have a very small issue with idiots who hate foreigners, just as its only a small issue in the UK, isn't it?

One does wonder if you would propose to move of the UK due to all the foreigner hating UKIP/BNP/EDLers - are you saying that? That would be a bit silly, surely, to type cast a Nation as foreigner hating?

[Wayne E Edge]

REALIST123 said:

In all honesty, I would think carefully about moving to France. My oldest friend, (in both senses!) has had two properties out there since the late 90s. He also maintained a home in the UK.

He was spending most of his time in France but, since the vote, he's sold one of his places and the other is up for sale. It's much too expensive and not because of the fall in the pound, which of course was in his favour with his sale. Taxes on foreign residents, the generally high cost of living, the local attitudes towards immigrants all went to persuade him.

With Macron in, promising more integration with Germany, massive public sector reform etc., to try to solve the already painful unemployment and social issues, it looks like there's going to be serious unrest in the short to medium term. It's not going to be a pleasant place to be.

By all means emigrate but France? Really?

I'll take that on board. Are you saying there is an extra tax levied at foreigners that wouldn't be levied at their own citizens? Please show me a link to this, Id love to see it.

[loafer123]

Wayne E Edge said:

I'll take that on board. Are you saying there is an extra tax levied at foreigners that wouldn't be levied at their own citizens? Please show me a link to this, Id love to see it.

They tried it with an additional tax on foreign owned house sales, as I paid it when selling my place in the SW.

Eventually they paid it back as it was determined to be against non-French citizens and therefore illegal under EU law.

So, the EU is good for something, at least.

I wouldn't rate your chances after Brexit, however.

[Wayne E Edge]

Do they currently levy it for non EU citizens living there? Canadians, Americans, etc?

[jjlynn27]

Wayne E Edge said:

I'll take that on board. Are you saying there is an extra tax levied at foreigners that wouldn't be levied at their own citizens? Please show me a link to this, Id love to see it.

You are actually going to listen to people who twitch when they hear foreign accent about moving to France? Just because they have no desire or guts to try something else it really shouldn't stop you. You'll only ever truly regret things that you didn't try.
Even if it doesn't work there are plenty of places and you are virtually guaranteed to find somewhere where you'll like it.

[Wayne E Edge]

jjlynn27 said:

You are actually going to listen to people who twitch when they hear foreign accent about moving to France? Just because they have no desire or guts to try something else it really shouldn't stop you. You'll only ever truly regret things that you didn't try.
Even if it doesn't work there are plenty of places and you are virtually guaranteed to find somewhere where you'll like it.

Thanks for that comment. No, I wouldn't listen, I've seen the same things many times on here when others have spoken about moving away.

[jjlynn27]

Wayne E Edge said:

jjlynn27 said:

You are actually going to listen to people who twitch when they hear foreign accent about moving to France? Just because they have no desire or guts to try something else it really shouldn't stop you. You'll only ever truly regret things that you didn't try.
Even if it doesn't work there are plenty of places and you are virtually guaranteed to find somewhere where you'll like it.

Thanks for that comment. No, I wouldn't listen, I've seen the same things many times on here when others have spoken about moving away.

For what's it worth this is my take on it as someone who has lived and worked in quite a few countries.
From every experience you'll learn something. stty ones tend to fade away, while good ones tend to get even better with time. It's a win - win.

[loafer123]

Wayne E Edge said:

Do they currently levy it for non EU citizens living there? Canadians, Americans, etc?

That's a very good question...I'm afraid I don't know, but if you are looking to buy, a good estate agent will know all about it.

It took me three years to reclaim, but we got there in the end.

I loved having a house in France...a great place to live. We sold our houses there after my father died...too many memories.

If you want a great place to live, we were near Agen in the SW - good communications via BOD and TLS, plus the new TGV Grand Vitesse coming through, plus better economy than the Dordogne, so less of a "them and us" feeling with the locals. We made real friends.

As for the rest of Europe, I have done business in most places and would happily look at Portugal and Sweden as my top interesting places to live. Mind you, I am typing this by the pool in Madeira on my first visit to the island. Great climate, lovely people, cheap cost of living, very well organised and maintained. Perhaps another option for you to consider!

[Wayne E Edge]

that's our first choice of area. I suppose we better get this thread back on topic about the sky falling in.