The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

[turbobloke]

Yes, while acknowledging the greater official status of Project Fear as emanating from the PM and Chanfellor, and the far wider scope of Project Fear in its desperation to railroad a Remain vote for something which is supposedly so good we would be crazy to leave. It makes you wonder why the level and authority attached to the lying was needed at all. Fortunately it failed badly. Nothing less than it deserved.

[///ajd]

So, instead of rehashing pre ref arguments, lets look at some actual data.

Pre brexit our GDP in 2016 was on for 2.4% growth and we were one of the fastest growing advanced economies in the world.

Latest results - 0.2% in first qtr 2017, and now slowest growing advanced economy in world.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk...

[sidicks]

Given your desire to focus on the 'actual data', Can you remind us what the equivalent figures for the 3 months to March 2015 and 2016 were?

[Digga]

///ajd said:

So, instead of rehashing pre ref arguments, lets look at some actual data.

Pre brexit our GDP in 2016 was on for 2.4% growth and we were one of the fastest growing advanced economies in the world.

Latest results - 0.2% in first qtr 2017, and now slowest growing advanced economy in world.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk...

IMF forecasts.

Just look at their record on Greece.

[turbobloke]

Digga said:

///ajd said:

So, instead of rehashing pre ref arguments, lets look at some actual data.

Pre brexit our GDP in 2016 was on for 2.4% growth and we were one of the fastest growing advanced economies in the world.

Latest results - 0.2% in first qtr 2017, and now slowest growing advanced economy in world.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk...

IMF forecasts.

Just look at their record on Greece.

And global GDP for the last 6-7 years. Broken lines are forecasts and the solid line is reality.



Abysmal performance.

[DapperDanMan]

turbobloke said:

Yes, while acknowledging the greater official status of Project Fear as emanating from the PM and Chanfellor, and the far wider scope of Project Fear in its desperation to railroad a Remain vote for something which is supposedly so good we would be crazy to leave. It makes you wonder why the level and authority attached to the lying was needed at all. Fortunately it failed badly. Nothing less than it deserved.

Of course you forget the lies of the leavers as it is inconvenient to recall them isn't it.

For me I never heard a convincing argument for leaving. It was all the EU is anti democratic and we need to trade freely with the rest of the world to make us great again. Foreigners are taking our jobs/houses/hospital beds....blah...blah...blah. It all stunk a little to much of manipulation - all your problems are due to the EU vote leave and they will all be fixed. The cost of leaving is another thing, of course it wasn't really mentioned was it so there was no lying there was there.

The side of that bus was pretty funny wasn't it - of course that wasn't manipulative - ends justify the means and all that.

So if you want to call remain Project Fear I want to call leaving Project Liar. It was just a siren song of lies and omissions with no real plan (as we can plainly see in the shambles of the last year) but what the hell lets just take a huge leap of faith that everything will be fine.

[Murph7355]

///ajd said:

So, instead of rehashing pre ref arguments, lets look at some actual data.

Pre brexit our GDP in 2016 was on for 2.4% growth and we were one of the fastest growing advanced economies in the world.

Latest results - 0.2% in first qtr 2017, and now slowest growing advanced economy in world.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk...

You have to look at the historic charts. (We've had this line of debate very recently I think).

A percentage is relative. If we had stronger growth in the preceding 8 quarters (say) but now get this, is that bad? What's the longest period any country in the developed world has had higher %age growth than its peers?

It's also still positive. Isn't the definition of a "recession" two consecutive quarters of negative growth? So there won't now be one until 2018 officially at least.

Tip top - you see, try and see some positive in the world you miserable twunt. Your wife and kids will appreciate it.

[powerstroke]

///ajd said:

So, instead of rehashing pre ref arguments, lets look at some actual data.

Pre brexit our GDP in 2016 was on for 2.4% growth and we were one of the fastest growing advanced economies in the world.

Latest results - 0.2% in first qtr 2017, and now slowest growing advanced economy in world.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk...

I think -0.2 isn't bad ,we have all the usual suspects talking us down and we are in limbo ,
waiting for the deal or no deal from the EUSSR ,
then business will invest to suit the new circumstances Either the firm proper Brexit we voted for i.e. leaving the customs
union and the single market , or the sloppy weak insipid brexit the Quislings want ...

[sidicks]

powerstroke said:

I think -0.2 isn't bad ,we have all the usual suspects talking us down and we are in limbo ,
waiting for the deal or no deal from the EUSSR ,
then business will invest to suit the new circumstances Either the firm proper Brexit we voted for i.e. leaving the customs
union and the single market , or the sloppy weak insipid brexit the Quislings want ...

It's +0.2%, I think.

And little different than the equivalent figures for 2015 and 2016.

[Digga]

sidicks said:

powerstroke said:

I think -0.2 isn't bad ,we have all the usual suspects talking us down and we are in limbo ,
waiting for the deal or no deal from the EUSSR ,
then business will invest to suit the new circumstances Either the firm proper Brexit we voted for i.e. leaving the customs
union and the single market , or the sloppy weak insipid brexit the Quislings want ...

It's +0.2%, I think.

And little different than the equivalent figures for 2015 and 2016.

No one outside of the construction industry has the slightest clue just how huge a project and GDP boost HS2 is going to be. It's massive - off the scale.

[gavsdavs]

Digga said:

No one outside of the construction industry has the slightest clue just how huge a project and GDP boost HS2 is going to be. It's massive - off the scale.

That's funny, because I think HS2 is a total f*cking white elephant - a massive waste of money. When the rest of the world is laying fibre to the door of all properties, reducing carbon burn, encouraging telecommuting and selling digital services of the 21st century, we decide to get out the shovels and tunnel boring machines and go back to the Victorian era.

Serious question - *who* wants HS2 ? Do we really want to expand the commuter belt of London to the north midlands ?

[confused_buyer]

gavsdavs said:

That's funny, because I think HS2 is a total f*cking white elephant - a massive waste of money. When the rest of the world is laying fibre to the door of all properties, reducing carbon burn, encouraging telecommuting and selling digital services of the 21st century, we decide to get out the shovels and tunnel boring machines and go back to the Victorian era.

Are they? A big chunk of the rest of the world still seem to be building railways. France, Spain, Germany, China, Japan, USA even Morocco and no doubt others are building or planning new high speed lines.

You can argue it is the wrong thing to do but we are by no means the only ones doing so (in fact we are way behind in years and volume).

[Digga]

gavsdavs said:

Digga said:

No one outside of the construction industry has the slightest clue just how huge a project and GDP boost HS2 is going to be. It's massive - off the scale.

That's funny, because I think HS2 is a total f*cking white elephant - a massive waste of money. When the rest of the world is laying fibre to the door of all properties, reducing carbon burn, encouraging telecommuting and selling digital services of the 21st century, we decide to get out the shovels and tunnel boring machines and go back to the Victorian era.

Serious question - *who* wants HS2 ? Do we really want to expand the commuter belt of London to the north midlands ?

Doesn't matter whether or not it gets your knickers in a knot, it is happening and it is huge.

I happen to think capacity (not speed) is the real benefit and that, besides rail, we ought to be investing in additional road capacity too, since we have a growing economy and population. Try living off what can be beamed down through your super-fast broadband and you'll soon starve.

HS2 is massive, just in 6x6 off road dump trucks it will need between 400 and 600 units. The numbers are staggering.

[Nothingtoseehere]

Do I get faster deliveries with faster fibre?

[johnfm]

UK apparently the 'sick man of Europe' again according to the Guardian.

Do their journalists even read stats??

[turbobloke]

Apparently not!

[Murph7355]

Murph7355 said:

///ajd said:

So, instead of rehashing pre ref arguments, lets look at some actual data.

Pre brexit our GDP in 2016 was on for 2.4% growth and we were one of the fastest growing advanced economies in the world.

Latest results - 0.2% in first qtr 2017, and now slowest growing advanced economy in world.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk...

You have to look at the historic charts. (We've had this line of debate very recently I think).

A percentage is relative. If we had stronger growth in the preceding 8 quarters (say) but now get this, is that bad? What's the longest period any country in the developed world has had higher %age growth than its peers?

It's also still positive. Isn't the definition of a "recession" two consecutive quarters of negative growth? So there won't now be one until 2018 officially at least.

Tip top - you see, try and see some positive in the world you miserable twunt. Your wife and kids will appreciate it.

And just to reinforce my point ///ajd...

The Guardian said:

...However, in year-on-year terms the UK was closer to the EU performance and ahead of the 19-nation eurozone...

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/08/uk-economy-falls-to-bottom-of-eu-growth-league

Strongest performers in the EU? Romania, Latvia, Slovenia. It's easier making big gains from a low base

They then go on to do what you do - ignore the real numbers and start talking about "prospects" and "forecasts" again

[///ajd]

Murph7355 said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/08/u...

Strongest performers in the EU? Romania, Latvia, Slovenia. It's easier making big gains from a low base

They then go on to do what you do - ignore the real numbers and start talking about "prospects" and "forecasts" again

Interesting to see you link to an article called "UK economy falls to bottom of EU growth league" to defend your position that everything is rosy. Its true we need to see Q2 onwards figures.

Still, if Foxy is quick we might see retail trade jump as public demand for chlorine soaked chicken from a hastily cobbled together US trade deals brings us the full benefits of cheap chemically drenched brexit chicken. This is truely the lower cost food we have all been dreaming of but our EU overloads have denied us! Rejoice in the new opportunities to take advantage of bargain basement food reared on US farms with low hygiene standards!

Finally the positives of brexit and being shown off to a hungry public!

[rs1952]

gavsdavs said:

Digga said:

No one outside of the construction industry has the slightest clue just how huge a project and GDP boost HS2 is going to be. It's massive - off the scale.

That's funny, because I think HS2 is a total f*cking white elephant - a massive waste of money. When the rest of the world is laying fibre to the door of all properties, reducing carbon burn, encouraging telecommuting and selling digital services of the 21st century, we decide to get out the shovels and tunnel boring machines and go back to the Victorian era.

Serious question - *who* wants HS2 ? Do we really want to expand the commuter belt of London to the north midlands ?

Suck up Gavs, you lost. Get over it

It is going to happen

Over 90% of people that voted in the GE supported parties that back HS2. Most of the cabinet support it.

And when completed the country will be in a far better position economically and socially than it ever could have been had we not done it. Anyone with half a brain should be able to see that.

And what's all this nonsense about "extending the commuter belt to the north Midlands?" You think that idyllic sleepy rural backwaters like Chesterfield and Barnsley and Stoke on Trent are going to get overrun by oiks fleeing from the dark satanic mills of Surrey and Sussex? Project fear mate, project fear.

I need a new word to describe people like you who don't like the idea of HS2 and want things to remain as they were. Let me see... "remainers?" No - not sarcastic enough. I've got it - "Remoaners," that's the word I need, remoaners.

So all you remoaners out there can cut out your "project fear" rubbish and patriotically get behind the government to support them in implementing the nation's will.



You know, I quite enjoyed writing that

[gavsdavs]

rs1952 said:

Suck up Gavs, you lost. Get over it

It is going to happen

Over 90% of people that voted in the GE supported parties that back HS2. Most of the cabinet support it.

And when completed the country will be in a far better position economically and socially than it ever could have been had we not done it. Anyone with half a brain should be able to see that.

And what's all this nonsense about "extending the commuter belt to the north Midlands?" You think that idyllic sleepy rural backwaters like Chesterfield and Barnsley and Stoke on Trent are going to get overrun by oiks fleeing from the dark satanic mills of Surrey and Sussex? Project fear mate, project fear.

I need a new word to describe people like you who don't like the idea of HS2 and want things to remain as they were. Let me see... "remainers?" No - not sarcastic enough. I've got it - "Remoaners," that's the word I need, remoaners.

So all you remoaners out there can cut out your "project fear" rubbish and patriotically get behind the government to support them in implementing the nation's will.

You know, I quite enjoyed writing that

Well you know, I wasn't writing that from the perspective of a Bremoaner, I was writing it from the perspective of someone who's family is in the firing line for compulsary purchase in Cheshire. But would you believe it, Gideon's constituency, Tatton, has some how managed to escape the ravages of these compulsary purchases. That's just an amazing coincidence, I know, I really shouldn't be jumping to such silly conclusions, but there you go. Somehow, a straight line becomes a curve and goes around the Knutsford triangle.

My bh about HS2 has nothing to do with Brexit, sorry to disappoint. I notice that nobody has attempted to answer the question "Who wants it". Yes, "The cabinet" want it, maybe because there's a possiblity of massive kick backs in their construction company interests.

Where were the demonstrations in Westminster where the good people of Stoke, Barnsley and Chesterfield were up in arms about the poor train service to London. I must have missed it.

Follow the money.