The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)
Discussion
Breadvan72 said:
jsf said:
Are you on drugs or completely ignorant of the process?
Why do you think anyone would be cheering on the loss of banking sector jobs, or any jobs for that matter?
David Davis job is not to sign new trade deals outside the EU.
The UK can not sign any trade deals with anyone until we have left the EU and are no longer members of the Customs Union. If, as I expect, we end up with a 2-3 year transitional deal, I would expect part of that deal will mean we cant implement any new trade deals with 3rd countries until that transition period is over.
Yes, I am happy with how Davis is handling the negotiation, I think everything I have seen so far is entirely predictable. I would like to see continued pressure by the UK to get the trade talks with the EU kicked off, because that is the part business care about most.
Well, there it is. I invited a calm discussion from thinking Brexiteers, and I got that. Oh well, predictable, if a little sad. Why do you think anyone would be cheering on the loss of banking sector jobs, or any jobs for that matter?
David Davis job is not to sign new trade deals outside the EU.
The UK can not sign any trade deals with anyone until we have left the EU and are no longer members of the Customs Union. If, as I expect, we end up with a 2-3 year transitional deal, I would expect part of that deal will mean we cant implement any new trade deals with 3rd countries until that transition period is over.
Yes, I am happy with how Davis is handling the negotiation, I think everything I have seen so far is entirely predictable. I would like to see continued pressure by the UK to get the trade talks with the EU kicked off, because that is the part business care about most.
I have a faint inkling that as I do some work for Government Departments I may know about as much about the process as you do and possibly even a tad more, but who knows? Davis claimed that negotiations for non EU trade deals would be half way done by a week or so ago. Negotiations have not even started. Trade deals generally take more than thirty minutes to negotiate. As for an EU trade deal, there remain big hurdles to be overcome before that can be discussed. I (sort of) admire your breezy optimism, which is very plucky Brit, but not so much your sense of realism.
I suspect that our negotiating partners are working from a script and are not trying to be sensible. I am frustrated at the scare tactics they're employing to pressure us to accept the script ("you'll regret this").
I'm pleased that we didn't disclose our poker hand right at the start.
I'm pleased that we haven't resorted to tit for tat on the rhetoric from our official team or PM.
I'm pleased that we put forward an aggressive starting position with immigration, purely as a counter to the script from the EU, but I do feel for the poor people here who will be feeling uncertain as a result and I hope it works out for them. That must have been a tough decision for the PM.
I'm pleased that we appear to have held our ground and I am tending to move emotionally towards a view that if the EU are intent on sticking to a script and threatening us with no deal if we don't just accept it, then we should call their bluff and just walk away.
I suspect there's some credibility to us putting forward more thought through proposals than our EU partners.
I strongly suspect that the EU will continue to be inflexible; We will continue to dig our heels in; and that the rhetoric from the EU and (sadly) our press will be that the resultant no deal will be all our fault.
Breadvan72 said:
Barnier represents the hated EU political system, which makes many leavers hate him on principle, and he is also doing the remarkably unsporting thing of negotiating rather than simply giving the Brits everything they want. The howls of protest from the leavers when they learn that cake cannot be both had and eaten are a bit piercing.
TM appears to be powerless and paralysed, and she is even at her best a weak and incompetent leader. She should have sacked Johnson, but apparently feels too weak to do so.
Barnier is not capable of any meaningful negotiation . No doubt he has the ability, but is constrained by the council. He is obliged to stick rigidly to what they allow him to do. Things may change sometime after Germany gets a new government.TM appears to be powerless and paralysed, and she is even at her best a weak and incompetent leader. She should have sacked Johnson, but apparently feels too weak to do so.
Eddie Strohacker said:
No I get what you're saying, the lack of progress is highly concerning to me. As I see it, we've had a massive period of inaction since the referendum, a government busy negotiating with itself to no conclusion, of which DD's fruitless endeavours are the manifestation.
There is never any meaningful "progress" in EU negotiations until the last minute. It is how it has been for 45 years. There is detail progress behind the scenes but the big issues will be hammered out at the last minute.If there is a deal it will be at 2.45am at a special summit scheduled to finish at 10.00pm the previous day in about November 2018. Right up to that point it will look as if there isn't going to be a deal regardless of what is actually going on behind the scenes.
It is how it is, how it always has been and how it always will be. I wasn't expecting much else at the moment - I'm surprised no one has walked out yet. Compared to how I thought they'd go it has been positive. I think DD has been OK in that he hasn't simply agreed to everything the other side wants in the first 10% of the negotiating period. It would be pretty bad if he had. Even if he has to in the end it is nice if he actually tries!
Breadvan72 said:
Barnier represents the hated EU political system, which makes many leavers hate him on principle, and he is also doing the remarkably unsporting thing of negotiating rather than simply giving the Brits everything they want. The howls of protest from the leavers when they learn that cake cannot be both had and eaten are a bit piercing.
Can't recognise any of that. Made up stuff.The EU negotiating side is displaying typical control freakery and EU arrogance in wanting to set the rules and referee the rules, we ought to expect that but it's noteworthy all the same - noting doesn't involve piercing howls as per the above mischaracterisation.
The EU isn't in sole control, posturing apart, and can't cope very well.
confused_buyer said:
There is never any meaningful "progress" in EU negotiations until the last minute. It is how it has been for 45 years. There is detail progress behind the scenes but the big issues will be hammered out at the last minute.
If there is a deal it will be at 2.45am at a special summit scheduled to finish at 10.00pm the previous day in about November 2018. Right up to that point it will look as if there isn't going to be a deal regardless of what is actually going on behind the scenes.
It is how it is, how it always has been and how it always will be. I wasn't expecting much else at the moment - I'm surprised no one has walked out yet. Compared to how I thought they'd go it has been positive. I think DD has been OK in that he hasn't simply agreed to everything the other side wants in the first 10% of the negotiating period. It would be pretty bad if he had. Even if he has to in the end it is nice if he actually tries!
You'd better run along & tell that to BMW, JLR, Price Waterhouse, Ineos, Honda, Nissan, Tesco,...If there is a deal it will be at 2.45am at a special summit scheduled to finish at 10.00pm the previous day in about November 2018. Right up to that point it will look as if there isn't going to be a deal regardless of what is actually going on behind the scenes.
It is how it is, how it always has been and how it always will be. I wasn't expecting much else at the moment - I'm surprised no one has walked out yet. Compared to how I thought they'd go it has been positive. I think DD has been OK in that he hasn't simply agreed to everything the other side wants in the first 10% of the negotiating period. It would be pretty bad if he had. Even if he has to in the end it is nice if he actually tries!
Eddie Strohacker said:
confused_buyer said:
There is never any meaningful "progress" in EU negotiations until the last minute. It is how it has been for 45 years. There is detail progress behind the scenes but the big issues will be hammered out at the last minute.
If there is a deal it will be at 2.45am at a special summit scheduled to finish at 10.00pm the previous day in about November 2018. Right up to that point it will look as if there isn't going to be a deal regardless of what is actually going on behind the scenes.
It is how it is, how it always has been and how it always will be. I wasn't expecting much else at the moment - I'm surprised no one has walked out yet. Compared to how I thought they'd go it has been positive. I think DD has been OK in that he hasn't simply agreed to everything the other side wants in the first 10% of the negotiating period. It would be pretty bad if he had. Even if he has to in the end it is nice if he actually tries!
You'd better run along & tell that to BMW, JLR, Price Waterhouse, Ineos, Honda, Nissan, Tesco,...If there is a deal it will be at 2.45am at a special summit scheduled to finish at 10.00pm the previous day in about November 2018. Right up to that point it will look as if there isn't going to be a deal regardless of what is actually going on behind the scenes.
It is how it is, how it always has been and how it always will be. I wasn't expecting much else at the moment - I'm surprised no one has walked out yet. Compared to how I thought they'd go it has been positive. I think DD has been OK in that he hasn't simply agreed to everything the other side wants in the first 10% of the negotiating period. It would be pretty bad if he had. Even if he has to in the end it is nice if he actually tries!
Eddie Strohacker said:
confused_buyer said:
There is never any meaningful "progress" in EU negotiations until the last minute. It is how it has been for 45 years. There is detail progress behind the scenes but the big issues will be hammered out at the last minute.
If there is a deal it will be at 2.45am at a special summit scheduled to finish at 10.00pm the previous day in about November 2018. Right up to that point it will look as if there isn't going to be a deal regardless of what is actually going on behind the scenes.
It is how it is, how it always has been and how it always will be. I wasn't expecting much else at the moment - I'm surprised no one has walked out yet. Compared to how I thought they'd go it has been positive. I think DD has been OK in that he hasn't simply agreed to everything the other side wants in the first 10% of the negotiating period. It would be pretty bad if he had. Even if he has to in the end it is nice if he actually tries!
You'd better run along & tell that to BMW, JLR, Price Waterhouse, Ineos, Honda, Nissan, Tesco,...If there is a deal it will be at 2.45am at a special summit scheduled to finish at 10.00pm the previous day in about November 2018. Right up to that point it will look as if there isn't going to be a deal regardless of what is actually going on behind the scenes.
It is how it is, how it always has been and how it always will be. I wasn't expecting much else at the moment - I'm surprised no one has walked out yet. Compared to how I thought they'd go it has been positive. I think DD has been OK in that he hasn't simply agreed to everything the other side wants in the first 10% of the negotiating period. It would be pretty bad if he had. Even if he has to in the end it is nice if he actually tries!
Breadvan72 said:
Well, there it is. I invited a calm discussion from thinking Brexiteers, and I got that. Oh well, predictable, if a little sad.
I have a faint inkling that as I do some work for Government Departments I may know about as much about the process as you do and possibly even a tad more, but who knows? Davis claimed that negotiations for non EU trade deals would be half way done by a week or so ago. Negotiations have not even started. Trade deals generally take more than thirty minutes to negotiate. As for an EU trade deal, there remain big hurdles to be overcome before that can be discussed. I (sort of) admire your breezy optimism, which is very plucky Brit, but not so much your sense of realism.
I'm sorry but your first post was full of absurdity.I have a faint inkling that as I do some work for Government Departments I may know about as much about the process as you do and possibly even a tad more, but who knows? Davis claimed that negotiations for non EU trade deals would be half way done by a week or so ago. Negotiations have not even started. Trade deals generally take more than thirty minutes to negotiate. As for an EU trade deal, there remain big hurdles to be overcome before that can be discussed. I (sort of) admire your breezy optimism, which is very plucky Brit, but not so much your sense of realism.
I didn't take anything said by anyone regarding negotiating a trade deal with third parties before we are out of the CU seriously, because I know the constraints the Customs Union put on the UK as a member. There has been and continues to be progress in this respect with setting the early groundwork for any trade deals we negotiate once we leave the Customs Union, that's all you can expect right now. I found it hilarious how the EU were losing the plot initially with us even contemplating talking to third parties whilst the withdrawal process was in play, we haven't heard much about that recently though, because its a stupid position to even think you can stop it.
When we leave the CU there is no need to have trade deals in place, we will be trading under the WTO regimes with 3rd parties as we do now, most countries via the WTO are ready to switch to equivalence of any EU trade agreement, so I have no fear of a "cliff edge". In the words of the Australian former WTO ambassador, there is no cliff edge. The Australian foreign office head is amongst many ready to sort a tade agreement post our leaving, they expect it to take less than 18 months to organise. (Australia have done 8 deals in the last 10 years, with a staff of 130 people) I expect relatively quick deals will come with Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, then the USA and China will follow, the speed will depend on how protective each party wishes to be, if both parties head more towards Free Trade than protected sectors we could see rapid implementation. The noises coming from May are very much that way inclined.
I don't fear for this countries future outside the EU, so long as we make a clean break from the CU post any transition period I will be happy we will do very well long term, far better than we would have within the EU system. The worst case scenario for me is staying in the CU, that would be a huge mistake. So yes, I am optimistic for the future of the UK.
Eddie Strohacker said:
No I get what you're saying, the lack of progress is highly concerning to me. As I see it, we've had a massive period of inaction since the referendum, a government busy negotiating with itself to no conclusion, of which DD's fruitless endeavours are the manifestation.
It's clear that the major impasse in all this is TM's dithering. What does she want? Pay the bill? Don't pay the bill? Hard, soft, red, white & blue? I follow this forensically closely & I couldn't tell you, in all good conscience.
On Barnier for a moment, I'm perplexed at the right's rancour towards him. His reputation is on the line with this. In France, I can't see him getting a big job under Macron as a Republican, so he needs this to work. It follows then that his best interests are served by striking a deal that works all round, achieving the mandate handed to him by the 27 heads of state and a deal that is palatable to the UK. Why he's a hate figure for some Brexiteers is a mystery to me.
I think we have seen a sensible approach to this, by delaying the Art50 notification its given time to build up the required team to do the hard work, I see most of the politics in play as just that, bullsIt's clear that the major impasse in all this is TM's dithering. What does she want? Pay the bill? Don't pay the bill? Hard, soft, red, white & blue? I follow this forensically closely & I couldn't tell you, in all good conscience.
On Barnier for a moment, I'm perplexed at the right's rancour towards him. His reputation is on the line with this. In France, I can't see him getting a big job under Macron as a Republican, so he needs this to work. It follows then that his best interests are served by striking a deal that works all round, achieving the mandate handed to him by the 27 heads of state and a deal that is palatable to the UK. Why he's a hate figure for some Brexiteers is a mystery to me.
t politics. What matters is what's going on in the background with the technical teams. The approach this has led to has thrown the EU side because we are doing what we should do in a very British way, be analytical and look at the issues of the bill on its merits. This isn't the EU way of doing things, they are used to playing politics, UK has always been more hard nosed about how we approach matters, something the EU will miss.Barnier is auditioning for Junkers job when his term is up, its as simple as that. I think he is well aware he has to make this negotiation work whilst he also has to play the EU politics game. He knows if this ends with no deal his goal of being the next president is dead, so that gives me some expectation that he will be a sensible voice behind closed doors. It is quite fun watching him get wound up in the press conferences though. I don't have any problem with the guy personally.
Verhofstadt is the guy that concerns me more than anyone else, he is a nutcase, but I think his voice in the parliament is pretty weak when the choice will be to reject the deal or accept it, with all the compromises to his vision of Brexit it will include.
jsf said:
...
I didn't take anything said by anyone regarding negotiating a trade deal with third parties before we are out of the CU seriously ...
On that footing you must not take Davis seriously, as it was he who was so clear that trade deal talks would be well advanced by now. I would agree that Davis is not a man to take seriously - he appears to be a buffoon, as are many in the Government (not including Hammond and some others). I am not sure that either Davis or many leave voters are very clear on just how complex securing such deals will be. The ideas that all of this is just easy stuff and that Britain has a strong hand in the game are, I suggest, mere optimism.I didn't take anything said by anyone regarding negotiating a trade deal with third parties before we are out of the CU seriously ...
Edited by anonymous-user on Thursday 21st September 17:32
Breadvan72 said:
Germany is getting a new Government? Would that be the soon to be re-elected Chancellor Merkel new Government, or some other one?
Even if Merkel's group win the most seats and she retains the chancellorship, she will still have to build a coalition government based on how the other parties polled. It's a large coalition system in Germany and the makeup of the government they end up with could look very different. It's very much not a two party system in place there.This could take up to 3 months to sort out before Germany has a government in place.
You assume first of all that the new coalition will be significantly different from the present one, but the polling suggests that is not very likely. You assume also that Germany and France care quite as much about Brexit as we do. They do care about it, but they have many other agenda items.
jsf said:
...What matters is what's going on in the background with the technical teams....
I do not know what your sources are telling you, but my sources in the Whitehall-Westminster-Temple rumour mill are not giving out the vibiest of vibes. That may all be just mere tittle tattle or careful double bluffing of course, but the mood doesn't seem all that cheery.Breadvan72 said:
jsf said:
...
I didn't take anything said by anyone regarding negotiating a trade deal with third parties before we are out of the CU seriously ...
On that footing you must not take Davis seriously, as it was he who was so clear that trade deal talks would be well advanced by now. I would agree that Davis is not a man to take seriously - he appears to be a buffoon, as are many in the Government (not including Hammond and some others). I am not sure that either Davis or many leave voters are very clear on just how complex securing such deals will be. The ideas that all of this is just easy stuff and that Britain has a strong hand in the game are, I suggest, mere optimism.I didn't take anything said by anyone regarding negotiating a trade deal with third parties before we are out of the CU seriously ...
Edited by Breadvan72 on Thursday 21st September 17:32
Breadvan72 said:
You assume first of all that the new coalition will be significantly different from the present one, but the polling suggests that is not very likely. You assume also that Germany and France care quite as much about Brexit as we do. They do care about it, but they have many other agenda items.
Well the east of Germany is looking like a very different place than it was 4 years ago, from what I am seeing. I am assuming nothing, it would be foolish for anyone to do that at the moment after the issues Merkel has brought on some parts of Germany. There are a lot of unhappy Germans out there.France's Macron just threw a hand grenade into the EU this week with his talk at the Bloomberg Global Forum, the s
t is about to hit the fan in France.Breadvan72 said:
Barnier . . . . . . . . is also doing the remarkably unsporting thing of negotiating rather than simply giving the Brits everything they want.
I'm afraid I don't think he is negotiating - he is generally taking the position of "you Brits decided to leave so you must make all the proposals" then "Oh, I don't like that one, try again" and then doing the unsporting thing of bleating to the media and trying to use them to exert pressure on the UK government, an approach he wouldn't have to employ if he thought the EU position was strong.In general I did not expect the 'negotiations' to proceed in any other manner. I do an awful lot of negotiating - part of the job - and it never gets 'tasty' until both sides realise time has just become very short and then it's down to who blinks first (you must surely have witnessed many times that legal things get resolved on the steps of the courthouse when there has been plenty of time to do it previously).
The real 'game' is between the UK's desire to get on and sort out its trading post Brexit and the EU desire for as much filthy lucre as it can extort! It may well be another six months before it really gets going.
On the economy, yes I always expected UK to 'take a hit'. Indeed, I expected that 'hit' to have kicked in by now so I am encouraged that it has been, well, a bit of a non event so far. However, I do believe things will get worse before they get better and how deep the 'trough of despair' will be is anyone's guess.
Will it be worth it - I hope so but it really is a bit of a gamble. Exciting, eh?
Just a thought as I read todays Brexit news on the Beeb... Regarding the imminent transition deal Mrs May is scheduled to deliver tomorrow. Something in the region of €20bn to keep us in the single market for couple of additional years.
It's impossible to calculate even a ball park figure of what Brexit is going to cost in the long run... far too many variables and unknowns.
Having said that I'd love to know what the cost of Brexit is so far, given that it doesn't require a crystal ball to calculate. I'm talking everything from the referendum itself, the campaigns, the last election, the government man hours, the various new committees, negotiations so far and the huge drop in the pound. It must be utterly collosal already let alone in 5 years time.
It's impossible to calculate even a ball park figure of what Brexit is going to cost in the long run... far too many variables and unknowns.
Having said that I'd love to know what the cost of Brexit is so far, given that it doesn't require a crystal ball to calculate. I'm talking everything from the referendum itself, the campaigns, the last election, the government man hours, the various new committees, negotiations so far and the huge drop in the pound. It must be utterly collosal already let alone in 5 years time.
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