The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

[paul789]

Macron is really going for it - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42809691

[andymadmak]

paul789 said:

Macron is really going for it - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42809691

Very interesting indeed. He certainly seems to be on a charm offensive. That being said, it will be interesting to see how the financial sector reacts to this. Will they leap to Paris on the basis of the current popularity of a politician? Paris has not been consistent in its approach to business and I wonder if that will ultimately translate into caution on the part of the financial services sector?
That being said, some may say that London is an even riskier proposition, partly due to Brexit and partly due to the possibility (however remote) of a Corbyn Government.
I know that there are some reasonably senior city folk on PH, I wonder if they could give us their perspective on this?

[Tuna]

paul789 said:

Macron is really going for it - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42809691

JPMorgan Boss said:

It's a shocking change from what came before and if Macron had been around before maybe you would have had the British staying in.

This'll be the same Macron who said earlier this week that if the French had a referendum they would probably vote out? It's like the Hokey Cokey around here.

JP Morgan's analysis isn't unfair - he's saying if we can't run London as a financial centre, there will be job losses. Frankly a few thousand JP Morgan employees going would be the least of our concerns under those circumstances. He's right to put pressure on, but I feel that it's not the same as opening up the option of Europe. This is a "don't **** it up" warning, not a invite to move.

[anonymous-user]

andymadmak said:

Very interesting indeed. He certainly seems to be on a charm offensive. That being said, it will be interesting to see how the financial sector reacts to this. Will they leap to Paris on the basis of the current popularity of a politician? Paris has not been consistent in its approach to business and I wonder if that will ultimately translate into caution on the part of the financial services sector?
That being said, some may say that London is an even riskier proposition, partly due to Brexit and partly due to the possibility (however remote) of a Corbyn Government.
I know that there are some reasonably senior city folk on PH, I wonder if they could give us their perspective on this?

Would you employ large numbers of people in France with their labour laws?

The only chance Macron has of attracting large scale business to France is by dumping their socialist employment laws, it is yet to be seen if he will be able to carry that through.

Its also worth bearing in mind, Macron will be gone in time, what's waiting in the wings? At best its a socialist, at worst it's a communist or fascist.

Macrons reforms are guaranteed to put more people out of work in the short term, will the French accept the changes he is attempting to make? I'm not convinced.

It's easy to underplay just how attractive London is for the financial services sector, an ecosystem like that doesn't appear overnight.

[Not-The-Messiah]

mx5nut said:

Alex said:

mx5nut said:

In the news today: Project Dreamland and Project Fear Reality.

I take it all the comments about the BBC's lack of accurate reporting don't apply to the second screenshot? Only when it suits?

The JLR article where they made it sound like the rest of Europe sales where far bigger than they are.

"Ongoing uncertainty surrounding Brexit is being felt by customers at home - with demand for new cars down 5.7% in 2017 - and in Europe where collectively, we sell approximately 45% of total UK production."

Only around 5% of their products go to the rest of Europe they sneak in the collectively thing to make it sound like its 45%. When we leave the EU 95% of Range Rover sales will be outside the EU.

And then you need to ask why are people off put? is it because of the actual effects of brexit or the constant Media scaremongering?

[ElectricSoup]

Anyone interested in the Bank of England's comments today about the economy losing £200m a week in growth because of the Leave vote? How much worse will that be if we actually do leave?

Anyone? No? Oh well, all part of the Brexit Dividend as the BBC (Brexit Broadcasting Corporation) calls it.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-costs-20...

[alfie2244]

ElectricSoup said:

we're doooooomed!

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-costs-20...

Nothing changes....Nice to see the Canadian Governer of the BOE having some consistency.... if he is at Davos then whom is he actually representing?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36273448

While we are at it.....what is the snakeoil salesman formerly known as CallmeDave doing there?

[sidicks]

ElectricSoup said:

Anyone interested in the Bank of England's comments today about the economy losing £200m a week in growth because of the Leave vote? How much worse will that be if we actually do leave?

Why worse? Have previous estimates been optimistic or pessimistic?

On what basis are these projections being made?

[anonymous-user]

ElectricSoup said:

Anyone interested in the Bank of England's comments today about the economy losing £200m a week in growth because of the Leave vote? How much worse will that be if we actually do leave?

Anyone? No? Oh well, all part of the Brexit Dividend as the BBC (Brexit Broadcasting Corporation) calls it.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-costs-20...

Anyone, No, oh well....... seriously chap, who posts like that?

I covered it on the carney thread from the reuters report using the same info.

"A spokesman for the BoE declined to comment on the report which was based on comments from people who attended the meeting. Media were not allowed to attend."

So could be pulled out of someones arse.

Another snippet

"Carney said he thought the loss to economic growth was equivalent to between two-thirds and three-quarters of the weekly 350 million-pound boost to public spending that Brexit supporters said was a key advantage of Brexit, the Times reported."

Even if that's what he said, that's a pretty stty way of quantifying the change, because that £350 million/week comes from the treasury out of taxed profits and is based on a percentage of that turnover, using the EU formula of GNI, VAT and import duty charges.

The UK economy size was £1,940 Billion in 2016, that 10 billion drop is 0.51%, which would translate to an EU payment change of £1.8 million, not the two-thirds and three-quarters of the £350 million/week used as an emotive reference.

So we are looking at 0.5% drop and that's just a guess. Does that sound so bad considering the changes we are looking to make for the long term benefit? Sure isn't what the projections were pre-referendum.

It would be hilarious if it wasn't so blatant a spin on the situation.

[ElectricSoup]

jsf said:

ElectricSoup said:

Anyone interested in the Bank of England's comments today about the economy losing £200m a week in growth because of the Leave vote? How much worse will that be if we actually do leave?

Anyone? No? Oh well, all part of the Brexit Dividend as the BBC (Brexit Broadcasting Corporation) calls it.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-costs-20...

Anyone, No, oh well....... seriously chap, who posts like that?

I covered it on the carney thread from the reuters report using the same info.

"A spokesman for the BoE declined to comment on the report which was based on comments from people who attended the meeting. Media were not allowed to attend."

So could be pulled out of someones arse.

Another snippet

"Carney said he thought the loss to economic growth was equivalent to between two-thirds and three-quarters of the weekly 350 million-pound boost to public spending that Brexit supporters said was a key advantage of Brexit, the Times reported."

Even if that's what he said, that's a pretty stty way of quantifying the change, because that £350 million/week comes from the treasury out of taxed profits and is based on a percentage of that turnover, using the EU formula of GNI, VAT and import duty charges.

The UK economy size was £1,940 Billion in 2016, that 10 billion drop is 0.51%, which would translate to an EU payment change of £1.8 million, not the two-thirds and three-quarters of the £350 million/week used as an emotive reference.

So we are looking at 0.5% drop and that's just a guess. Does that sound so bad considering the changes we are looking to make for the long term benefit? Sure isn't what the projections were pre-referendum.

It would be hilarious if it wasn't so blatant a spin on the situation.

So brexit makes us worse off and you've got the gall to call the remain campaign liars. It was supposed to make us better off. Why are we doing it if it makes us worse off? That question just can't be waved away. And it isn't the only one. But this is an economic consequences thread so I'll leave it there.

Anyone? No.

[andymadmak]

ElectricSoup said:

So brexit makes us worse off and you've got the gall to call the remain campaign liars. It was supposed to make us better off. Why are we doing it if it makes us worse off? That question just can't be waved away. And it isn't the only one. But this is an economic consequences thread so I'll leave it there.

Anyone? No.

Who told you Brexit would make us better off? Just about everyone I know who voted for Brexit did so in the knowledge that it most certainly would not make us better off in the short to medium term. Most talked about acknowledging the hit we (the UK) would take, but felt it was worth it for the longer term benefits.
It does seem that you're making your own Brexiteer arguments up, just so that you can argue with yourself and look like a winner!

[ElectricSoup]

andymadmak said:

ElectricSoup said:

So brexit makes us worse off and you've got the gall to call the remain campaign liars. It was supposed to make us better off. Why are we doing it if it makes us worse off? That question just can't be waved away. And it isn't the only one. But this is an economic consequences thread so I'll leave it there.

Anyone? No.

Who told you Brexit would make us better off? Just about everyone I know who voted for Brexit did so in the knowledge that it most certainly would not make us better off in the short to medium term. Most talked about acknowledging the hit we (the UK) would take, but felt it was worth it for the longer term benefits.
It does seem that you're making your own Brexiteer arguments up, just so that you can argue with yourself and look like a winner!

Ah yes, that old claim again. How's about Liam Fox and David Davis telling us all about the wondrous new trade opportunities which would make us better off? How's that going?

You're telling me we'll be better off, right now. "Longer term benefits". What longer term benefits? Any sign of them yet? Can you name them?

It's a fantasy.

[paul789]

andymadmak said:

paul789 said:

Macron is really going for it - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42809691

Very interesting indeed. He certainly seems to be on a charm offensive. That being said, it will be interesting to see how the financial sector reacts to this. Will they leap to Paris on the basis of the current popularity of a politician? Paris has not been consistent in its approach to business and I wonder if that will ultimately translate into caution on the part of the financial services sector?
That being said, some may say that London is an even riskier proposition, partly due to Brexit and partly due to the possibility (however remote) of a Corbyn Government.
I know that there are some reasonably senior city folk on PH, I wonder if they could give us their perspective on this?

I'm by no means a senior City chap. But I spent most of the summer working on a project with a French bank in Paris. There is a buzz about the place, as long as you don't want to conduct business in August :-)

I'd say we have a lot going for us with FS, in London and beyond. Apparently (unverified) it accounts for 12% of the tax take so only a fool would cast it aside. We have advantages of timezone, language, a stable and respected legal system and the sheer fact of the amount of liquidity and volume of transactions managed here at present. We also have the cultural pull of London, if counter balanced by the stabby / acid chucking brethren we share the city with.

I do worry that we're sleepwalking into a clusterf*ck with this though. As has been stated elsewhere, the French may feel they can sense 'blood in the water'. Give our competitors (DE, FR, Nl etc) a sniff and they'll cut the City off at the knees.

We need some very shrewd operators at the hear of this. Anybody here think we have the high calibre people running the Brexit show?

[paul789]

Tuna said:

paul789 said:

Macron is really going for it - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42809691

JPMorgan Boss said:

It's a shocking change from what came before and if Macron had been around before maybe you would have had the British staying in.

This'll be the same Macron who said earlier this week that if the French had a referendum they would probably vote out? It's like the Hokey Cokey around here.

JP Morgan's analysis isn't unfair - he's saying if we can't run London as a financial centre, there will be job losses. Frankly a few thousand JP Morgan employees going would be the least of our concerns under those circumstances. He's right to put pressure on, but I feel that it's not the same as opening up the option of Europe. This is a "don't **** it up" warning, not a invite to move.

Indeed - "don't **** it up"; the ultimate deal is pivotal.

[Eddie Strohacker]

paul789 said:

...only a fool would cast it aside.

No shortage of those mate.

[don'tbesilly]

ElectricSoup said:

Anyone interested in the Bank of England's comments today about the economy losing £200m a week in growth because of the Leave vote? How much worse will that be if we actually do leave?

You didn't answer your own question?

ElectricSoup said:

Anyone?

You were getting impatient with yourself, think about it a bit more...........

st I'm not going to answer the question I posed myself!

ElectricSoup said:

No?

You were given the opportunity again to involve yourself in the conversation, but refused again?
You must have been mightily pissed off with yourself that despite asking again, you failed to respond to yourself, before going on:

ElectricSoup said:

Oh well, all part of the Brexit Dividend as the BBC (Brexit Broadcasting Corporation) calls it.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-costs-20...

Have you recovered after having your own mini meltdown?

[Sway]

paul789 said:

andymadmak said:

paul789 said:

Macron is really going for it - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42809691

Very interesting indeed. He certainly seems to be on a charm offensive. That being said, it will be interesting to see how the financial sector reacts to this. Will they leap to Paris on the basis of the current popularity of a politician? Paris has not been consistent in its approach to business and I wonder if that will ultimately translate into caution on the part of the financial services sector?
That being said, some may say that London is an even riskier proposition, partly due to Brexit and partly due to the possibility (however remote) of a Corbyn Government.
I know that there are some reasonably senior city folk on PH, I wonder if they could give us their perspective on this?

I'm by no means a senior City chap. But I spent most of the summer working on a project with a French bank in Paris. There is a buzz about the place, as long as you don't want to conduct business in August :-)

I'd say we have a lot going for us with FS, in London and beyond. Apparently (unverified) it accounts for 12% of the tax take so only a fool would cast it aside. We have advantages of timezone, language, a stable and respected legal system and the sheer fact of the amount of liquidity and volume of transactions managed here at present. We also have the cultural pull of London, if counter balanced by the stabby / acid chucking brethren we share the city with.

I do worry that we're sleepwalking into a clusterf*ck with this though. As has been stated elsewhere, the French may feel they can sense 'blood in the water'. Give our competitors (DE, FR, Nl etc) a sniff and they'll cut the City off at the knees.

We need some very shrewd operators at the hear of this. Anybody here think we have the high calibre people running the Brexit show?

They've been trying for the last few decades, with zero success.

I've asked several times, to zero response, by what mechanism it's possible to 'cut the City off at the knees' without causing themselves immense issues - it's a MAD scenario. If it were possible, it'd already have happened.

See at least three EU Finance/Business ministers recognising this over the last few months.

[sidicks]

ElectricSoup said:

So brexit makes us worse off and you've got the gall to call the remain campaign liars. It was supposed to make us better off. Why are we doing it if it makes us worse off? That question just can't be waved away. And it isn't the only one. But this is an economic consequences thread so I'll leave it there.

Anyone? No.

Sounds like you don’t understand the Brexit arguments. Never mind.

[paul789]

Sway said:

paul789 said:

andymadmak said:

paul789 said:

Macron is really going for it - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42809691

Very interesting indeed. He certainly seems to be on a charm offensive. That being said, it will be interesting to see how the financial sector reacts to this. Will they leap to Paris on the basis of the current popularity of a politician? Paris has not been consistent in its approach to business and I wonder if that will ultimately translate into caution on the part of the financial services sector?
That being said, some may say that London is an even riskier proposition, partly due to Brexit and partly due to the possibility (however remote) of a Corbyn Government.
I know that there are some reasonably senior city folk on PH, I wonder if they could give us their perspective on this?

I'm by no means a senior City chap. But I spent most of the summer working on a project with a French bank in Paris. There is a buzz about the place, as long as you don't want to conduct business in August :-)

I'd say we have a lot going for us with FS, in London and beyond. Apparently (unverified) it accounts for 12% of the tax take so only a fool would cast it aside. We have advantages of timezone, language, a stable and respected legal system and the sheer fact of the amount of liquidity and volume of transactions managed here at present. We also have the cultural pull of London, if counter balanced by the stabby / acid chucking brethren we share the city with.

I do worry that we're sleepwalking into a clusterf*ck with this though. As has been stated elsewhere, the French may feel they can sense 'blood in the water'. Give our competitors (DE, FR, Nl etc) a sniff and they'll cut the City off at the knees.

We need some very shrewd operators at the hear of this. Anybody here think we have the high calibre people running the Brexit show?

They've been trying for the last few decades, with zero success.

I've asked several times, to zero response, by what mechanism it's possible to 'cut the City off at the knees' without causing themselves immense issues - it's a MAD scenario. If it were possible, it'd already have happened.

See at least three EU Finance/Business ministers recognising this over the last few months.

I make no pretence that I have the specific expertise on this. I have worries, not answers. But are you sure we've got this?

If so, can I get my 911 GTS now?

[sidicks]

paul789 said:

I make no pretence that I have the specific expertise on this. I have worries, not answers. But are you sure we've got this?

If so, can I get my 911 GTS now?

There’s always a reason to be a 911!