The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)
Discussion
ElectricSoup said:
Ah yes, that old claim again. How's about Liam Fox and David Davis telling us all about the wondrous new trade opportunities which would make us better off? How's that going?
You're telling me we'll be better off, right now. "Longer term benefits". What longer term benefits? Any sign of them yet? Can you name them?
It's a fantasy.
It's not a "claim". It is reality. the fact that is a narrative that does not fit with your somewhat hysterical view of events is not my concern. You're telling me we'll be better off, right now. "Longer term benefits". What longer term benefits? Any sign of them yet? Can you name them?
It's a fantasy.
The benefits of being able to sort out our own trade arrangements with the likes of the USA, China, Japan, Australia and such like will undoubtedly bring benefits - and no, I am not going to spell them out for you. (to do so, even if it were possible, would be an exercise in futility given your approach to the subject)
Given that we cannot actually agree any new trade arrangements until after we have left the EU, (something that I am sure you are well aware of), asking "how's that going?" is demonstrably stupid.
I did not say we'd be better off right now - Have you morphed into Cathy Newman?
ElectricSoup said:
So brexit makes us worse off and you've got the gall to call the remain campaign liars. It was supposed to make us better off. Why are we doing it if it makes us worse off? That question just can't be waved away. And it isn't the only one. But this is an economic consequences thread so I'll leave it there.
Anyone? No.
Brexit hasn't happened yet, do you look at everything with such short term views?Anyone? No.
People who voted to leave expected some short term correction, what has happened so far has been far less damaging than predicted. So much for the 18% loss in house prices and recession with 500k job losses.
UK economy is not worse off, its still growing.
£ now at 1.4318 to $ up 0.54% today
andymadmak said:
even if it were possible,
Key phrase there. It's not possible and moreover, it won't be possible for years to come. This whole thing is a pack of shoddy fantasies & lies revolving around Fox & Davis. No surprise to me that absolutely no noise is coming from leave over Davis' appearance before the Brexit select committee yesterday where he insisted we'd assemble trade deals during transition. It can't be done. We don't have the capacity to do it, we don't have the time to do it & we certainly don't have the reciprocal leap of faith required from any partner country to sign on the line before they know what our future relationship with Europe looks like.It's the same flowering nonsense as having trade deals a minute after midnight or a Europe deal done in eighteen months. They lie and lie again and lo & behold by the time the reality hits, as so many people point out over & over again, the debate has shot off in another direction & they get away with it.
I wouldn't buy a used car off those two clowns, much less trust them with the future of my country.
jsf said:
CaptainSlow said:
160,000 already protesting?
And our resident Toxics think the banks will be moving to Frankfurt???
It's what usually happens when you get full employment, Labour starts to use its muscle to drive up wages.And our resident Toxics think the banks will be moving to Frankfurt???
This is what happened just before the s
t hit the fan in the 70's and was the driver for Globalisation, to remove the power of Labour.In France and Germany in particular, they kept their unions and strong labour protections, it's going to be interesting to see how Macron gets on with his attempts to do a Thatcher.
Eddie Strohacker said:
Key phrase there. It's not possible and moreover, it won't be possible for years to come. This whole thing is a pack of shoddy fantasies & lies revolving around Fox & Davis. No surprise to me that absolutely no noise is coming from leave over Davis' appearance before the Brexit select committee yesterday where he insisted we'd assemble trade deals during transition. It can't be done. We don't have the capacity to do it, we don't have the time to do it & we certainly don't have the reciprocal leap of faith required from any partner country to sign on the line before they know what our future relationship with Europe looks like.
It's the same flowering nonsense as having trade deals a minute after midnight or a Europe deal done in eighteen months. They lie and lie again and lo & behold by the time the reality hits, as so many people point out over & over again, the debate has shot off in another direction & they get away with it.
I wouldn't buy a used car off those two clowns, much less trust them with the future of my country.
You think 2 years is too short to arrange any bi-lateral deals? You think 2 years is too short to mirror the EU deals with 3rd countries that are already on record as wanting to do that as a matter of course? You think 4 years (2 yr Art50 + trans) is too short to arrange even a basic FTA with the EU?It's the same flowering nonsense as having trade deals a minute after midnight or a Europe deal done in eighteen months. They lie and lie again and lo & behold by the time the reality hits, as so many people point out over & over again, the debate has shot off in another direction & they get away with it.
I wouldn't buy a used car off those two clowns, much less trust them with the future of my country.
That's the time we have post leaving the EU to sort out any trade deals that kick in once beyond the transition period.
crankedup said:
jsf said:
CaptainSlow said:
160,000 already protesting?
And our resident Toxics think the banks will be moving to Frankfurt???
It's what usually happens when you get full employment, Labour starts to use its muscle to drive up wages.And our resident Toxics think the banks will be moving to Frankfurt???
This is what happened just before the s
t hit the fan in the 70's and was the driver for Globalisation, to remove the power of Labour.In France and Germany in particular, they kept their unions and strong labour protections, it's going to be interesting to see how Macron gets on with his attempts to do a Thatcher.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42817263
jsf said:
You think 2 years is too short to arrange any bi-lateral deals? You think 2 years is too short to mirror the EU deals with 3rd countries that are already on record as wanting to do that as a matter of course? You think 4 years (2 yr Art50 + trans) is too short to arrange even a basic FTA with the EU?
That's the time we have post leaving the EU to sort out any trade deals that kick in once beyond the transition period.
I think you're a fantasist in for a disappointing couple of years, yes.That's the time we have post leaving the EU to sort out any trade deals that kick in once beyond the transition period.
Sway said:
They've been trying for the last few decades, with zero success.
I've asked several times, to zero response, by what mechanism it's possible to 'cut the City off at the knees' without causing themselves immense issues - it's a MAD scenario. If it were possible, it'd already have happened.
See at least three EU Finance/Business ministers recognising this over the last few months.
It’s not a word I have used so much recently but “passporting”.I've asked several times, to zero response, by what mechanism it's possible to 'cut the City off at the knees' without causing themselves immense issues - it's a MAD scenario. If it were possible, it'd already have happened.
See at least three EU Finance/Business ministers recognising this over the last few months.
This will not cut the city (there is no such thing as the city, FS is UK based now) off at its knees but it will make a substantial difference to the way FS company have to deal with customers in the rEU. Since the rEU is about 80% of the EU GDP that means about 80% of the customers. This will involve redesigning products and moving staff. The UK will no longer be the dominant force in FS in Europe.
Barnier and the EC have been clear “no” special deal for FS so they are not worried.
As for the winner I suspect it will be shared. Most FS companies will just expand existing operations. However, with modern communications you do not all need to be in the same place so you can have your sales team in Paris, Amsterdam, Dublin where ever you want, even if your rEU regulated entity is in German.
paul789 said:
I make no pretence that I have the specific expertise on this. I have worries, not answers. But are you sure we've got this?
If so, can I get my 911 GTS now?
My take on it - which I've posted a few times to be debated/rebutted:If so, can I get my 911 GTS now?
EUR clearing. The two countries that conduct the most EUR denominated clearing are the UK and US. The EU would love for EUR clearing to only be conducted under the jurisdiction of the ECB. That's not the case for any other global reserve currency - it would also mean a big bunfight not only with us, but the US/Trump.
Further, there are attempts to force companies that conduct a high level of clearing to relocate to a country under ECB jurisdiction - this has been driven since the Greek debt crisis, as the ECB was most unhappy that Greek EUR clearing spreads were increased due to the increased risk. They are claiming that this will reduce risk, when clearly the opposite is the result. That weakens confidence in the Euro, which currently would be disastrous.
On passporting, it's far easier for the EU to remove recognition of equivalence and passporting. That will force companies to move to the continent. However, currently London is the silverback gorilla in a jungle of ants. It's taken decades to build the capacity, capability and infrastructure to support the level of trade being conducted in London - to replicate that will take decades, and cost billions, all of which will be passed on to EU consumers and businesses. Not ideal. Further, there's a chicken and egg scenario - keep passporting to cover the volumes and plan for the transition, and there's no incentive to spend the money duplicating the capacity. Force the change, and the markets will slow to a crawl until the capacity has been created.
I simply cannot see how the EU can kill the continent's access to London, without inflicting immense harm on themselves as well as the City.
crankedup said:
France still is fantastically generous with its benefits system, the Country is what the U.K. was forty years ago today. Drop of a hat and strike action is called, and supported.
I was in Nantes last June, for a music festival nearby, we spent a couple of days in the city and witnessed a load of young folk rioting, the coppers turned up and soon sorted them out. I asked a French lady who looked quite well to do (well dressed and carrying a leather satchel, obviously not a waster) what was going on, she said that the youth protest group were mad about proposed changes to labour laws/rights and when she pointed to the police she said "Macron". I asked if she liked or voted for him, she said no, I then said that the media in the UK called him a centrist, she laughed and said "no, right wing business candidate"
Mrr T said:
Barnier and the EC have been clear “no” special deal for FS so they are not worried.
Really? A third of EU debt is handled by London and they're not worried about disrupting access to that?It seems to me what they say and what they mean may be two slightly different things.
Digga said:
sidicks said:
paul789 said:
I make no pretence that I have the specific expertise on this. I have worries, not answers. But are you sure we've got this?
If so, can I get my 911 GTS now?
There’s always a reason to be a 911!If so, can I get my 911 GTS now?
sidicks said:
paul789 said:
Hmm, 991.1 for the howl (have driven), 991.2 getting rave reviews, newer and the price differential is narrow. Decisions, decisions....
Obviously it depends on budget and use, but i’d Go NA 991 / 997 for semi-regular use.Digga said:
sidicks said:
paul789 said:
Hmm, 991.1 for the howl (have driven), 991.2 getting rave reviews, newer and the price differential is narrow. Decisions, decisions....
Obviously it depends on budget and use, but i’d Go NA 991 / 997 for semi-regular use.
Sounds ideal for your average 911 driver
Oh look, a major bank CEO breaks ranks and backs UK setting its own rules outside Brussels influence.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-25...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-25...
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