saudi arabia , the next syria ?

[Colonial]

Mr Snrub said:

HappyMidget said:

TwigtheWonderkid said:

Well the Saudi government certainly behead a lot more people, about 20 a month on average. Most of whom are on trumped up charges, such as sorcery.

And Saudi is massively oppressive to women compared to say Iran.

If ever a country was worthy of a regime change, it's that one

I feel Iran has been a bit hard done by. Horrible government, but to be made out as the monster when Saudi Arabia gets a free ride from the west despite the horrific treatment of, well, everyone except the ruling elite, is not particularly fair.

[anonymous-user]

HappyMidget said:

Sounds like Saudi is heading the same way as Iran went in the 70's leading to the revolution there. At some point the normal people will get pissed off with the ruling elite and throw 'em out.

OR

Sounds like Saudi is heading the same way as Iran went in the 70's leading to a revolution there. At some point the radical types will stir up st and the rulers get overthrow then the country descends into chaos. What we MUST not do is try and be the policeman there but on the other hand we need the oil so we would be better off trying to deals with who ever is in power and turn a blind eye to their ways of life

[anonymous-user]

Mr Snrub said:

HappyMidget said:

TwigtheWonderkid said:

Well the Saudi government certainly behead a lot more people, about 20 a month on average. Most of whom are on trumped up charges, such as sorcery.

And Saudi is massively oppressive to women compared to say Iran.

If ever a country was worthy of a regime change, it's that one

AIUI the House of Saud are reformers and modernists compared to the wahhabi clerics with whom they really share power. They don't get much credit for keeping a lid on the lunatics.
Quite rightly given that they fund them but that apparently also gives them some leverage and control. If they try and push too far the clerics could easily start a revolution. From our perspective Saudi is brutal, repressive and backwards but from the local religious perspective it is fast becoming a liberal Sodom and Gomorrah. Be careful what you wish for! The Iranian brand of death to the west is not nearly as psychotic as this lot. In the words of Michael Corleone; keep your friends close but your enemies closer.

[GT03ROB]

The current situation in Saudi has been "problematic" for quite some time going back at least 20-25yrs. During this period the birth rate has been significant leading to a very young population. I think I read that around 50% of Saudis are 20 or below. As well as this Saudi has a population substantially higher than the other gulf oil states.

This has created a very fertile environment for the clerics & Islamist's that are not part of the royal family to seed their ideas. The royal family have basically been bribing these groups to take their issues elsewhere..... be that Europe, Iraq, Syria.

The royal family have not historically been investing the oil revenues for the good of the general Saudi population, unlike the other gulf states. The country is also so wrought with corruption it cannot generate & spread wealth to the general populous.

As their revenues drop this has created a very delicately balanced situation in Saudi. The royal family need to keep the clerics onside. If they lose them then the family are finished & revolution in Saudi is likely. There are too many Saudi's with nothing to lose to whom the clerics can appeal. Saudi has the appearance of a 3rd world country outside the major cities of Riyadh & Jeddah, many Saudis are poor, you see beggars. If you don't like Saudi now, you certainly won't like it post any such revolution.

The military can best be described as "all the gear no idea". They probably haven't the stomach across the board to keep the lid on a full scale insurrection.

Is a melt down in Saudi possible, most certainly, but not something to be wished for.

A couple of other points to those raised above.... the issues mentioned regarding Qatif are primarily Shia/Sunni conflict & would be completely unrelated to any sort of cleric driven revolution. Saudi is Sunni & will remain so irrespective of what else happens. To change would be like France becoming protestant.

Edited by GT03ROB on Tuesday 17th January 04:59

[768]

wc98 said:

i can remember my father mentioning an incident many years ago where the king announced he was going to visit qatif province ,something to do with a new project , and the local rulers announced if he came he would be killed.

There was some unrest in the 70s. That's the area where most of the oil is so while it's still coming out of the ground I can't see any unrest being tolerated. There was a lot of US and UK defence related work going on there too, which I'd imagine still is to some extent.

Around the time of the Arab spring I think they had a few issues, quickly squashed. Access to Bahrain is via that area too. Remember these pictures when F1 was there at the time of the Saudis sending some spare capacity to help?



I can't see it going the same way as Syria, not for a long time at least.

[Stickyfinger]

Watch 50% of them leg it double quick to London etall with bags of gold and their Swiss bank account numbers......

[Neonblau]

There is some interesting commentary here, albeit pre Trump on the US/Saudi relationship

http://oil-price.net/en/articles/saudis-lost-US-cl...

[ChemicalChaos]

Whatever happened to the lawsuit against Saudi for creating/harbouring the 911 attackers?

[Digga]

ChemicalChaos said:

Whatever happened to the lawsuit against Saudi for creating/harbouring the 911 attackers?

I think this answers why it might be an good idea in principle but a bad idea in practice:

fblm said:

Be careful what you wish for!

i.e. learn the (recent) lessons of interventions in Iraq, Libya and now Syria.

[SKP555]

TwigtheWonderkid said:

maxxy5 said:

Trump is apparently not a fan of Saudi Arabia.

Given their respective attitudes to women, I thought they would be kindred spirits.

Do you honestly even think there's a comparison to be made between the worst sexual depravity Trump is accused of and the routine barbarity of Saudi Arabia?

[TwigtheWonderkid]

SKP555 said:

TwigtheWonderkid said:

maxxy5 said:

Trump is apparently not a fan of Saudi Arabia.

Given their respective attitudes to women, I thought they would be kindred spirits.

Do you honestly even think there's a comparison to be made between the worst sexual depravity Trump is accused of and the routine barbarity of Saudi Arabia?

Yes, misogyny is at the root of both.

HTH.

[Digga]

TwigtheWonderkid said:

SKP555 said:

TwigtheWonderkid said:

maxxy5 said:

Trump is apparently not a fan of Saudi Arabia.

Given their respective attitudes to women, I thought they would be kindred spirits.

Do you honestly even think there's a comparison to be made between the worst sexual depravity Trump is accused of and the routine barbarity of Saudi Arabia?

Yes, misogyny is at the root of both.

HTH.

Sure, but there a levels of misogyny - one is very extreme.

Aside from misogyny is the utter intolerance of religious or sexual freedom.

[br d]

TwigtheWonderkid said:

Yes, misogyny is at the root of both.

HTH.

It might be splitting hairs but I think misogyny is the root of one and backward-arsed religion is the root of the other.

[TwigtheWonderkid]

br d said:

TwigtheWonderkid said:

Yes, misogyny is at the root of both.

HTH.

It might be splitting hairs but I think misogyny is the root of one and backward-arsed religion is the root of the other.

But it's a misogynistic backward-arsed religion.

[SKP555]

If that's what you want ti call it that.

My own moral compass is graduated enough to see a world of difference in scale and type between someone who brags about his conquests, or frankly even a run of the mill rapist, and an entire country which routinely uses corporal and even capital punishment for women who have had sex outside marriage, including rape victims. Amongst the many other horrendous things that happen to women in Saudi Arabia.

[z4RRSchris]

ive been to saudi alot and know a fair amount of people there with the money and in gov.

they are all very worried, quietly moving cash out of the country.

[Username888]

SKP555 said:

Are ISIS actually any worse than the Saudi government?

As barbaric as the Saudi Gov is, actually, yes. ISIS consider them to be softies.

[del mar]

SKP555 said:

TwigtheWonderkid said:

maxxy5 said:

Trump is apparently not a fan of Saudi Arabia.

Given their respective attitudes to women, I thought they would be kindred spirits.

Do you honestly even think there's a comparison to be made between the worst sexual depravity Trump is accused of and the routine barbarity of Saudi Arabia?

I thought we were supportive of women walking around covered head to toe in a black sheet - I believe it is called "freedom of choice".

[wc98]

gruffalo said:

On one hand a broken up Saudi could solve a great many of the issues in that region but on the other is it better the devil you know?

i would have agreed with the devil you know option pre gulf war . however that horse has long since bolted and i get the impression that saudi going pop is only a matter of time. it certainly won't be pretty if it does and i would hope the west will stay out of any conflict and let them sort it out themselves.

[F1GTRUeno]

Mr Snrub said:

HappyMidget said:

Mr Snrub said:

If ever a country was worthy of a regime change, it's that one

Saudi? Yup. Ridiculous how we still support them when Iran is a much more open and secular society!

Morally I'd feel cleaner if we just drove in and took the oil for ourselves rather than fund such a barbaric medieval regime

That's effectively what we did to create Saudi Arabia in the first place.