Will May Pay or Hope it Fades Away? £55b exit bill...

Will May Pay or Hope it Fades Away? £55b exit bill...

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768

13,643 posts

96 months

Tuesday 21st November 2017
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I've long suspected the fastest way to get a reasonable deal may be to crash out first. At the moment there EU seems to feel no incentive to give any ground.

p1stonhead

25,516 posts

167 months

Tuesday 21st November 2017
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hyphen said:
p1stonhead said:
amgmcqueen said:
If May pays this bill, then she may as well roll out the red carpet for Corbyn at No.10
there is no if
I disagree.

I think a bad deal will result in discontent (especially if we don't break free of EU courts jurisdiction after the transition or other unacceptable controls).

A good deal with money paid will be fine, and Tory voters on either side of Brexit will be happy enough,
I didnt mean Corbyn would get in, I meant there isnt a chance the bill wont be paid.

Corbyn wont get in either way IMO.

JagLover

42,354 posts

235 months

Tuesday 21st November 2017
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hyphen said:
I disagree.

I think a bad deal will result in discontent (especially if we don't break free of EU courts jurisdiction after the transition or other unacceptable controls).

A good deal with money paid will be fine, and Tory voters on either side of Brexit will be happy enough,
I think many need to keep calm about the monetary situation.

The sums involved are large, but are after all only a small fraction of government expenditure, and represents amounts we would have kept handing over each year in any case had we remained members.

What matters is the deal obtained. £20bn for the transition period and then a further £20bn "divorce" settlement would seem a fair price if a decent trade agreement were agreed and a reasonable settlement on such issues as EU citizens.

The government needs to have a clear eyed focus on what is worth paying for and what is not.

In the likely event of a no deal scenario they should then only pay what is legally obliged, with a continued willingness to pay for a transition period to WTO rules.

abzmike

8,323 posts

106 months

Tuesday 21st November 2017
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Has anyone suggested having an independent agency like the World Bank work out the sums, rather than the current ongoing haggle more associated with buying a 4 year old 530d?

anonymous-user

54 months

Tuesday 21st November 2017
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abzmike said:
Has anyone suggested having an independent agency like the World Bank work out the sums, rather than the current ongoing haggle more associated with buying a 4 year old 530d?
The EU would never agree to that. It has been raised by some in the past but died quickly as an idea, because this isn't about what is legal, its about politics.

Thorodin

2,459 posts

133 months

Tuesday 21st November 2017
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The EU would also probably have to turn over the accounts. That would never happen, they daren't.

Ian Geary

4,479 posts

192 months

Tuesday 21st November 2017
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Thorodin said:
The EU would also probably have to turn over the accounts. That would never happen, they daren't.
Have they even got signed off accounts?

I thought they were qualified every year...

Thorodin

2,459 posts

133 months

Tuesday 21st November 2017
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Well, there's 'signed off' then there's 'audited'. I'm told there are no offers of professional auditing services from respectable firms. With the resources available to the Commission you'd think there would be someone, somewhere. Unless of course everyone has it completely wrong and they are paragons of financial rectitude and brimming with transparency. Of which I am sure they are capable.

hyphen

26,262 posts

90 months

Tuesday 21st November 2017
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abzmike said:
Has anyone suggested having an independent agency like the World Bank work out the sums, rather than the current ongoing haggle more associated with buying a 4 year old 530d?
Not possible, nothing to calculate.

Legally we owe barely anything, this is a political payment in return for a deal.

Jazzy Jag

3,417 posts

91 months

Tuesday 21st November 2017
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Someone should calculate the value of the EU assets and what proportion we own.

Perhaps they would like to make us an offer?

alfie2244

11,292 posts

188 months

Tuesday 21st November 2017
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Jazzy Jag said:
Someone should calculate the value of the EU assets and what proportion we own.

Perhaps they would like to make us an offer?
Don't seem to hear much about this for some reason scratchchin

hyphen

26,262 posts

90 months

Tuesday 21st November 2017
quotequote all
Jazzy Jag said:
Someone should calculate the value of the EU assets and what proportion we own.

Perhaps they would like to make us an offer?
Already estimated and printed in the media.

Trouble is that the EU doesn't see it that way, their view is that they keep it all... and so you would need to go legal.

Murph7355

37,681 posts

256 months

Tuesday 21st November 2017
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alfie2244 said:
Don't seem to hear much about this for some reason scratchchin
It's certainly not about having cake and eating it. We all know that's not a viable proposition.

alfie2244

11,292 posts

188 months

Tuesday 21st November 2017
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Murph7355 said:
alfie2244 said:
Don't seem to hear much about this for some reason scratchchin
It's certainly not about having cake and eating it. We all know that's not a viable proposition.
Doubt it would need Alan Turing to work out a formula to calculate how much we own based on our historical net contributions.

Edited by alfie2244 on Tuesday 21st November 21:59

andymadmak

14,538 posts

270 months

Wednesday 22nd November 2017
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alfie2244 said:
Doubt it would need Alan Turing to work out a formula to calculate how much we own based on our historical net contributions.

Edited by alfie2244 on Tuesday 21st November 21:59
Except for the fact that the EU's position seems to be that assets belong to the EU, not to the member states of the EU. So, to use the health club analogy that is so popular around these parts, the UK's annual subscriptions does not mean that it owns some of the gym equipment and a share of the building.

The EU's position is also that they had assumed we would be members for some time to come, and thus had agreed to purchase more equipment on HP, using our contributions as evidence of their ability to finance the purchase. Thus, they expect us to continue paying a contribution towards those finance costs beyond the end of our membership.



PRTVR

7,091 posts

221 months

Wednesday 22nd November 2017
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andymadmak said:
alfie2244 said:
Doubt it would need Alan Turing to work out a formula to calculate how much we own based on our historical net contributions.

Edited by alfie2244 on Tuesday 21st November 21:59
Except for the fact that the EU's position seems to be that assets belong to the EU, not to the member states of the EU. So, to use the health club analogy that is so popular around these parts, the UK's annual subscriptions does not mean that it owns some of the gym equipment and a share of the building.

The EU's position is also that they had assumed we would be members for some time to come, and thus had agreed to purchase more equipment on HP, using our contributions as evidence of their ability to finance the purchase. Thus, they expect us to continue paying a contribution towards those finance costs beyond the end of our membership.
But the EU are talking divorce, not club membership, in divorce assets are taken into consideration.
Is not the EU a product of the member states, not an entity in its own right ? If all members decided to leave the EU would cease to exist.

alfie2244

11,292 posts

188 months

Wednesday 22nd November 2017
quotequote all
PRTVR said:
andymadmak said:
alfie2244 said:
Doubt it would need Alan Turing to work out a formula to calculate how much we own based on our historical net contributions.

Edited by alfie2244 on Tuesday 21st November 21:59
Except for the fact that the EU's position seems to be that assets belong to the EU, not to the member states of the EU. So, to use the health club analogy that is so popular around these parts, the UK's annual subscriptions does not mean that it owns some of the gym equipment and a share of the building.

The EU's position is also that they had assumed we would be members for some time to come, and thus had agreed to purchase more equipment on HP, using our contributions as evidence of their ability to finance the purchase. Thus, they expect us to continue paying a contribution towards those finance costs beyond the end of our membership.
But the EU are talking divorce, not club membership, in divorce assets are taken into consideration.
Is not the EU a product of the member states, not an entity in its own right ? If all members decided to leave the EU would cease to exist.
Perhaps our share will be held in trust until it implodes? I certainly think we should be lodging some sort of claim against the tangible assets.

768

13,643 posts

96 months

Wednesday 22nd November 2017
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PRTVR said:
But the EU are talking divorce, not club membership, in divorce assets are taken into consideration.
Is not the EU a product of the member states, not an entity in its own right ? If all members decided to leave the EU would cease to exist.
They want a divorce when it comes to future obligations and a club when it comes to existing assets.

And to claim it's the UK having it's cake and eating it.

andymadmak

14,538 posts

270 months

Wednesday 22nd November 2017
quotequote all
768 said:
They want a divorce when it comes to future obligations and a club when it comes to existing assets.

And to claim it's the UK having it's cake and eating it.
I think that about sums it up nicely!

Roofless Toothless

5,650 posts

132 months

Wednesday 22nd November 2017
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Why does this financial settlement seem so unidirectional?

We only get to hear about the ongoing expenses we are committed to. Wouldn't there also be lots of stuff we have invested in over the years that we would be receiving benefit from were it not that we are leaving?

Has this been estimated and offset against the 'leaving fee'?