Will May Pay or Hope it Fades Away? £55b exit bill...

Will May Pay or Hope it Fades Away? £55b exit bill...

Author
Discussion

p1stonhead

25,489 posts

166 months

Wednesday 22nd November 2017
quotequote all
Yipper said:
What a weird country Britain is.

Canada got a good EU trade deal and did not pay a penny for it.

The UK has a huge £60,000,000,000 trade deficit every year with the EU, equating to almost 1 trillion Euros in the next decade. The UK buys far more from the EU, than the EU buys from the UK.

The EU is in a permanent state of crisis and chaos. From bailing out bankrupt nations to countries quitting or splitting to winding up the Russians in Ukraine to German politicians who cannot form a government, the EU is in permanent fire-fighting mode.

And, still, the British people want to talk up the EU and talk down their own UK country.

Still, the Bremainers want to give the EU tens of billions of free cash from UK taxpayers.

The British desire for self-flagellation is most bizarre. Very few, if any, other countries in the world have such a weird culture.
Which is exactly why the EU will say 'like it or lump it' on the divorce bill.

And what?!

Funkycoldribena

7,379 posts

153 months

Wednesday 22nd November 2017
quotequote all
"Some" of the British people,Yipper.

dromong

689 posts

219 months

Wednesday 22nd November 2017
quotequote all
Yipper said:
And, still, the British people want to talk up the EU and talk down their own UK country..
I speak to a lot of different people in the course of a week and hardly ever hear anyone with a positive view, most of them are of the opinion that the EU is corrupt to the core.

Robertj21a

16,475 posts

104 months

Wednesday 22nd November 2017
quotequote all
Funkycoldribena said:
Thorodin said:
Sorry chum, but that looks and sounds like an EU edict conscious only of its own absurdity. Leave or Remain, there can be no misunderstanding about EU motives. To the best of available knowledge there has been no attempt to calculate any 'sums due' nor any attempt to arrive at a formula.#

The EU so far as anyone can work out has produced exactly zero details of a legitimate accounting for a final separation settlement but have awaited UK to offer what looks to them like a reasonable amount. They have consistently avoided giving any indication of a sum and have repeatedly refused to talk about future trade without it.

So, UK should say: 'If you refuse to talk about Trade and decline to talk about how you calculate a separation settlement we rescind our earlier offer of £20B and withdraw from further negotiation. We remind you that you have our Article 50. We will of course reconvene when your demands become acceptable'.
Sounds fair enough to me.
Itemised bill or get nothing.
Agreed - but that's what some of us have been saying for a very long time now.

It's difficult to know whether or not there is yet any version of an 'itemised bill' agreed by the EU27. Comments earlier suggest that they are still wanting to discuss the methods of calculation - seeing as it's them who want the money, and us that wants to leave, I'd suggest it's for the EU to get their finger out before we simply 'Hard Brexit'.

Thorodin

2,459 posts

132 months

Wednesday 22nd November 2017
quotequote all
Eddie Strohacker said:
At which point the Eu say okey dokey & we all get to enjoy 40 miles of lorry spotting every day as we munch on Hyde park grown turnips. Utter fantasy.
Colourful but submissive. Don't apply for any upcoming vacancies on the negotiating team please. What we need is backbone. On the other hand, if you fancy a game of Poker......

anonymous-user

53 months

Wednesday 22nd November 2017
quotequote all
Yipper said:
What a weird country Britain is.

Canada got a good EU trade deal and did not pay a penny for it.

The UK has a huge £60,000,000,000 trade deficit every year with the EU, equating to almost 1 trillion Euros in the next decade. The UK buys far more from the EU, than the EU buys from the UK.

The EU is in a permanent state of crisis and chaos. From bailing out bankrupt nations to countries quitting or splitting to winding up the Russians in Ukraine to German politicians who cannot form a government, the EU is in permanent fire-fighting mode.

And, still, the British people want to talk up the EU and talk down their own UK country.

Still, the Bremainers want to give the EU tens of billions of free cash from UK taxpayers.

The British desire for self-flagellation is most bizarre. Very few, if any, other countries in the world have such a weird culture.
I know, extraordinary isn't it

jjlynn27

7,935 posts

108 months

Wednesday 22nd November 2017
quotequote all
Thorodin said:
Eddie Strohacker said:
At which point the Eu say okey dokey & we all get to enjoy 40 miles of lorry spotting every day as we munch on Hyde park grown turnips. Utter fantasy.
Colourful but submissive. Don't apply for any upcoming vacancies on the negotiating team please. What we need is backbone. On the other hand, if you fancy a game of Poker......
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/b...

You?

anonymous-user

53 months

Wednesday 22nd November 2017
quotequote all
Eddie Strohacker said:
At which point the Eu say okey dokey & we all get to enjoy 40 miles of lorry spotting every day as we munch on Hyde park grown turnips. Utter fantasy.
And the French get to enjoy 120 miles of lorry spotting in Calais wink

B'stard Child

28,321 posts

245 months

Wednesday 22nd November 2017
quotequote all
digimeistter said:
Eddie Strohacker said:
At which point the Eu say okey dokey & we all get to enjoy 40 miles of lorry spotting every day as we munch on Hyde park grown turnips. Utter fantasy.
And the French get to enjoy 120 miles of lorry spotting in Calais wink
Except on Sundays biggrin

Thorodin

2,459 posts

132 months

Thursday 23rd November 2017
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jjlynn27 said:
Nahh, he's much better looking than me.

Mario149

7,750 posts

177 months

Thursday 23rd November 2017
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Reading all this does make me chuckle somewhat. The (faux? How very dare they? I never expected this really? It's not cricket?) outrage that the EU are pushing for £<large number we don't like> billion to be paid by the UK is wearing rather thin. Either you buy into Coolbanana's explanation, or that the EU are simply doing it because they can (or indeed both). Given that it appears most people here think it is the latter (and indeed me to a certain extent), let's not pretend we and any other country wouldn't do exactly the same if we had the upper hand. This isn't a game, this is realpolitik and the EU26 will be only looking out for themselves.

It does beg the question at what point the general Leave supporting public are going to face up to the reality that our negotiating position is, shall we say politely, rather frailer than expected. You personally may not think so, but clearly the majority of people in power - who as much as I dislike a lot of their politics, aren't all idiots - think that is not the case and have a much better view of what is going on to make that judgement. The UK population voted to leave the EU, they did note vote to have the process micro-managed and unduly influenced by an extreme eurosceptic minority of the population.

If we do have to go through with Brexit, the sooner we as a country face up to our real position in these negotiations and stop engaging in our self aggrandising Daily Mail-esque fantasy, the better. My one hope is that our negotiating team have been directed to do this, and all the bluster we hear now is just to temporarily appease the extreme eurosceptics in the Conservative party and/or is smoke screen/negotiating tactic. But I fear this may not be the case.

Eddie Strohacker

3,879 posts

85 months

Thursday 23rd November 2017
quotequote all
Mario149 said:
Reading all this does make me chuckle somewhat. The (faux? How very dare they? I never expected this really? It's not cricket?) outrage that the EU are pushing for £<large number we don't like> billion to be paid by the UK is wearing rather thin. Either you buy into Coolbanana's explanation, or that the EU are simply doing it because they can (or indeed both). Given that it appears most people here think it is the latter (and indeed me to a certain extent), let's not pretend we and any other country wouldn't do exactly the same if we had the upper hand. This isn't a game, this is realpolitik and the EU26 will be only looking out for themselves.

It does beg the question at what point the general Leave supporting public are going to face up to the reality that our negotiating position is, shall we say politely, rather frailer than expected. You personally may not think so, but clearly the majority of people in power - who as much as I dislike a lot of their politics, aren't all idiots - think that is not the case and have a much better view of what is going on to make that judgement. The UK population voted to leave the EU, they did note vote to have the process micro-managed and unduly influenced by an extreme eurosceptic minority of the population.

If we do have to go through with Brexit, the sooner we as a country face up to our real position in these negotiations and stop engaging in our self aggrandising Daily Mail-esque fantasy, the better. My one hope is that our negotiating team have been directed to do this, and all the bluster we hear now is just to temporarily appease the extreme eurosceptics in the Conservative party and/or is smoke screen/negotiating tactic. But I fear this may not be the case.
Excellent analysis. The bill the extent of which no one knows in fact is going to be paid. Both sides have a duty to extract the best value which we see in the horsetrading but at some point, the fools calling for the UK to simply walk away will be shown the futility of their arguments.

We hold few cards in this game, have made material mistakes in handling it, like attempting to enshrine the leave date in law. Nevertheless, the facts are we are a small country of 70 million negotiating with a bloc of 430 odd million presenting a united front standing to lose much less than we do in the event of no deal and make no mistake, no deal would be a catastrophic outcome for the UK.

This is reality it's not the rhetoric of talking down the country any more than the rubbish about German cars was a persuasive line for bringing the EU begging for a deal. Hammond set aside 3 billion for Brexit preparations yesterday & 2.8bn for the NHS. I don't remember seeing that on the red bus, so maybe, just maybe the time has arrived for people to look at this with objectivity & realise it's not a game or brinkmanship borne of jingoistic bravado but a one off ripping up & redrawing of our principle economic model with all the far reaching implications that implies.

Sway

26,070 posts

193 months

Thursday 23rd November 2017
quotequote all
Or maybe the judgement that 'insufficient progress' has been made is entirely down to the lack of government within the only real power within the EU, and there's little point in moving forward until the ministers that actually matter have been confirmed in post?

Oh, and there's plenty of disparate opinions across the EU's governments in relation to Brexit. It only appears as a united front due to there being a negotiator who has no mandate to negotiate - which is the time honoured approach to negotiations that always comes with big decisions, until the 11th hour when the Council actually come together and get st done...

lenny007

1,338 posts

220 months

Thursday 23rd November 2017
quotequote all
If anyone is expecting the EU to budge one inch on this then they are sorely mistaken.

Take some time to read "Adults in the Room" to see what negotiating with the EU is like. There will be no movement from them at all whilst simultaneously briefing that the UK is holding up the "negotiations" due to asking for basic things like, you know, an itemised bill for the charge.

There are only two ways in which these negotiations will progress;

1. We pay them whatever they want, no questions asked. And then repeat the process on the next stage. And the next...
2. We walk away from the table until some form of movement on the EU's behalf is enacted.

Forgetting about the trade for a moment, the EU will be losing between 12% (post rebate) of it's annual funding once we leave - it is this which it is trying to get us to pay for.

Give us £20bn and we can survive unchanged for a period of x. £50bn means 2.5 x, £100bn mean, etc, etc.

Kick the problem into the long grass and get the UK to pay for it.

Oh, and to try and equate the £3bn for Brexit preparations with the £2.8bn additional funding for the NHS is pretty weak.

Roboraver

437 posts

161 months

Thursday 23rd November 2017
quotequote all
Jeeze, can we really stop talking about MONEY and concentrate on the most IMPORTANT aspect ! Solve the N.I / border issue and brexit can proceed !! At this point in time that is the most important issue to resolve, everything else can be done but until the N.I border issue is resolved everything else that is N.A

Sway

26,070 posts

193 months

Thursday 23rd November 2017
quotequote all
Roboraver said:
Jeeze, can we really stop talking about MONEY and concentrate on the most IMPORTANT aspect ! Solve the N.I / border issue and brexit can proceed !! At this point in time that is the most important issue to resolve, everything else can be done but until the N.I border issue is resolved everything else that is N.A
As you've had explained several times, despite your emotion overriding your ability to rationalise it - it is impossible to resolve the NI border issue fully until the future trading relationship has been defined...

mx5nut

5,404 posts

81 months

Thursday 23rd November 2017
quotequote all
Roboraver said:
Jeeze, can we really stop talking about MONEY and concentrate on the most IMPORTANT aspect ! Solve the N.I / border issue and brexit can proceed !! At this point in time that is the most important issue to resolve, everything else can be done but until the N.I border issue is resolved everything else that is N.A
It's simple - it used to work fine back when the world was a very different place. We voted to take the world back to that time and therefore it will be fine again. We voted for it in a democratic referendum and that means we're entitled to have it work out well!

PurpleMoonlight

22,362 posts

156 months

Thursday 23rd November 2017
quotequote all
Sway said:
As you've had explained several times, despite your emotion overriding your ability to rationalise it - it is impossible to resolve the NI border issue fully until the future trading relationship has been defined...
We are not going to be in the single market, we are not going to be in the customs union, we are not going to permit free movement of people. How is the future trade agreement going to solve the Ni problem?

Sway

26,070 posts

193 months

Thursday 23rd November 2017
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
Sway said:
As you've had explained several times, despite your emotion overriding your ability to rationalise it - it is impossible to resolve the NI border issue fully until the future trading relationship has been defined...
We are not going to be in the single market, we are not going to be in the customs union, we are not going to permit free movement of people. How is the future trade agreement going to solve the Ni problem?
Because, just as the Isle of Man isn't a part of the EU, but is part of the customs union - NI remaining within the Customs Union hasn't been ruled out...

As everyone involved has said, multiple times - a flexible solution unique to Ireland is required, which will involve concessions from the 'norm' by both negotiating party.

PurpleMoonlight

22,362 posts

156 months

Thursday 23rd November 2017
quotequote all
Sway said:
Because, just as the Isle of Man isn't a part of the EU, but is part of the customs union - NI remaining within the Customs Union hasn't been ruled out...

As everyone involved has said, multiple times - a flexible solution unique to Ireland is required, which will involve concessions from the 'norm' by both negotiating party.
Two things wrong with your argument, IoM does not have a land boarder with any EU country which NI does, IoM is not part of the UK which NI is.