Snap General Election?

[anonymous-user]

gooner1 said:

sidicks said:

gooner1 said:

And I suggest you let siddicks speak for himself.
As far as I'm concerned he and I have moved on, I suggest you follow, and for the record, I'll make my own mind up as to who I consider to be a snowflake, or not. Which incidentally happened to be
an attempt at lightening things.
HTH.

I had planned to ignore you previous comment, but given you're determined to keep this going.

FIF is correct. You are wrong. HTH.

No you didn't plant to ignore my previous comment, you in fact replied then deleted your reply.
However, I think you may have have misconstrued my reply, but hey ho, stuff happens.
HTH.

[pingu393]

gruffalo said:

The UK is my companies largest market outside of the US amounting to over $500m per year, the bigwigs wanted to be prepared if it looked like is would all go pear shaped.

We are continuing to grow at 30-40% quarter on quarter.

Someone's bubble is going to burst. That kind of growth is unsustainable. At that rate, in about eleven year's time your market will be bigger than the gdp of the planet!!!

[Vaud]

So... which polls will be a better indicator? Given the events, I'm guessing the polls early next week after a weekend of more somber campaigning will be indicative.

My hunch is a slight swing to the Tories. Courage under fire, strong against terror, exceptional times, etc.

UKIP and LD drop.

[gruffalo]

pingu393 said:

gruffalo said:

The UK is my companies largest market outside of the US amounting to over $500m per year, the bigwigs wanted to be prepared if it looked like is would all go pear shaped.

We are continuing to grow at 30-40% quarter on quarter.

Someone's bubble is going to burst. That kind of growth is unsustainable. At that rate, in about eleven year's time your market will be bigger than the gdp of the planet!!!

Yes we know, we have the right technology at the right time allowing for a period of hyper growth, will the growth last, of course not but we will use this time to grab market share.

It does not alter the fact that the modelling showed we would be better off out of the EU.

This from a team lead by a pro Europe French man.

[Vaud]

gruffalo said:

Yes we know, we have the right technology at the right time allowing for a period of hyper growth, will the growth last, of course not but we will use this time to grab market share.

Gruffalo, would you mind PM'ing me? I'm interested in high growth technologies and can explain offline why.

[Twilkes]

From another forum:

"This from the man who called it right in 2015:-

https://www.ft.com/content/8eb99046-3fb3-11e7-9d56...

If not a subscriber essentially Matt Singh points out that history points to a convincing Conservative victory:-

Other indicators, such as historical polling bias, the personal ratings for the leaders and local election results are all a useful cross-check on the polling numbers.

Conservatives perform better at the ballot box than opinion polls suggest - only once in the last 50 years has this not happened (1983). Labour invariably do worse.

Pollsters continue to express doubts, publicly and privately, about their samples despite changes being made since 2015.

Comparing satisfaction levels between the PM and Opposition leader is an indicator - currently Theresa May is 24 points ahead on the Ipsos Mori series. Matt Singh believes this equates to a lead of just over half that figure at the ballot box.

Then the local election results and the fact that governing parties generally do better at general elections. In May the Tories had an 11 point lead.

In conclusion he anticipates a Conservative lead in the mid-teens. His view is that events (eg U-turn, Manchester) tend to have less impact at the ballot box than political junkies might assume. Fundamentals (as outlined above) are better indicators."

[Likes Fast Cars]

sidicks said:

BigMon said:

My opinion?

Are you honestly saying you won't admit that right-wingers have massacred innocents too? Can't think of any right-wing organisations that have massacred millions?

If that's the case then there is no point debating further with you I'm afraid.

A clue would be that 'normal' people accept that the extremes of both side harbour appalling individuals, parties, history, etc rather than pinning it all on 'lunatic lefties' or 'right wing nazis'.

He's said no such thing. He said that it was 'generally' those on the left that committed these types of atrocities.

I'm not claiming this is true either, but at least address the point he has made, not an entirely different one!

Yep, that's exactly what I said and yes fair point there are those on all sides guilty at various times, although I stand by my tendency to generalisation re: the left.

Sorry for the radio silence, was out most of the day yesterday.

[Likes Fast Cars]

gooner1 said:

So if it is generally accepted that "looney righties" have performed similar atrocities,what exactly was the point of the post?

Go back up before my post, there were posts and comments regrading these idiots out there posting on social media views along the lines of (and had even almost accused) the Conservatives of being behind the Manchester bombing; very left wing is how I see their pov. I was stating a view in regard to these morons on social media who were sprouting what I think most of us 'normal' people would call false and completely from cloud cuckoo-land. My comment was therefore based on the premise that the left have a lot to answer for, in my view, more so than those of other political persuasions. As sidicks has said I was speaking about the left, that is the context of my comment.

That's why I made it.

[Likes Fast Cars]

BigMon said:

sidicks said:

You'll have to ask him, but if you read his post, you'll see that he believes that generally these atrocities are associated with the loony left.

And do you not think that, possibly, this is subjective nonsense without posting facts to prove it?

Also, do you not think it is not exactly presenting a balanced argument to only give left wing examples?

Big Mon - if you think what I said is nonsense fine, OK, I'm not offended, that's your view and I can't change that. I posted a couple of examples, we can agree or disagree on those.

[Likes Fast Cars]

sidicks said:

BigMon said:

And do you not think that, possibly, this is subjective nonsense without posting facts to prove it?

It may or may not be. As I've quite clearly said, I'm not defending his opinion, simply trying to correct your misunderstanding.

BigMon said:

Also, do you not think it is not exactly presenting a balanced argument to only give left wing examples?

Is that how PH is supposed to work - you have to give a balanced argument to any point you make?

God help us all if we have to do that!

One thing about forums such as this is people can give a pov or state an opinion, I've seen people state facts on topics which they are expert in and have seen people posting / reacting in complete denial, which is their choice and fine if they wish to do so, it all comes back to freedom of opinion and the right to free speech (with boundaries, of course).

[Likes Fast Cars]

HappyMidget said:

Interesting view of the current political compass of the parties this general election and a good summary of how this election could actually strengthen Corbyn's leadership within the Labour party even after defeat: https://www.politicalcompass.org/uk2017.

I will be voting Conservative this time round as I believe they are currently the best people to deliver a healthy economy and extract us from the EU in the best manner for the interests of the UK. I do hope though, that in the next 5 years that a party can rise in the right wing libertarian sector as that is where I generally identify with my views; A small government live and let live meritocracy.

Regarding a comment above about the "Extreme Right Wing Nazis" or something similar, even Obama was more right wing than Hitler. The Nazis were predominantly authoritarian rather than economically right wing. http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PpMaNQ2WDiU/T7pQGhjQcnI/...

I have to say that's the first time I've heard that!

[Likes Fast Cars]

sidicks said:

robemcdonald said:

Grammar? Is that all you've got?

You appear to trying to make a point, yet write something that makes no sense. So why do you bother?

I'm still wondering why he bothers.....

[Likes Fast Cars]

768 said:

I'm hoping it's going to be insane Brexit.

We'll pour our champagne stock into the channel and fire scotch eggs at the continent.

....leaving the French and hopefully Druncker too with egg on their faces.

[Vaud]

Likes Fast Cars said:

I have to say that's the first time I've heard that!

I guess it depends on what factors have been used to get to the answer.

Hitler was a state control, state knows best, etc so I guess economically that shifts him to the centre.

[Likes Fast Cars]

sidicks said:

gruffalo said:

I had a chat with the head of finance for the EMEA region for the company I work for and his team have done lots of modelling around Brexit and in every one that involved our not being in the single market with the associated regulation and costs the UK was better off than we are now.

He is a pro Europe person!

In practice, won't we adopt most of the existing regulation with only minor changes - that's certainly the expectation for Insurers under Solvency II, for example.

Solvency II (and Basel) are probably the best examples of supra-national regs which go well beyond the EU with the objectives of aligning global practice and disclosure requirements. Zero sum game for these regs as far Brexit / no Brexit, Brexit of any variety (soft, hard, extreme or other).

The modelling results are interesting as this was one of the arguments put forward by many pro-Brexiteers. Proof is in the eating!

[Likes Fast Cars]

Vaud said:

So... which polls will be a better indicator? Given the events, I'm guessing the polls early next week after a weekend of more somber campaigning will be indicative.

My hunch is a slight swing to the Tories. Courage under fire, strong against terror, exceptional times, etc.

UKIP and LD drop.

Usually the case in these situations. Encumbancy is worth a few % at least, generally speaking.

[turbobloke]

Likes Fast Cars said:

Vaud said:

So... which polls will be a better indicator? Given the events, I'm guessing the polls early next week after a weekend of more somber campaigning will be indicative.

My hunch is a slight swing to the Tories. Courage under fire, strong against terror, exceptional times, etc.

UKIP and LD drop.

Usually the case in these situations. Encumbancy is worth a few % at least, generally speaking.

Corbyn's track record on such maters, along with his comrades, needs a more detailed airing once the official pause in campaigning is lifted. There would doubtless be howling and whining from corbynites around negative campaigning but with a set of chumps like Labour, prevention via information provision is better than cure. Out of the mouths oif babes and marxists etc.

[Likes Fast Cars]

turbobloke said:

Likes Fast Cars said:

Vaud said:

So... which polls will be a better indicator? Given the events, I'm guessing the polls early next week after a weekend of more somber campaigning will be indicative.

My hunch is a slight swing to the Tories. Courage under fire, strong against terror, exceptional times, etc.

UKIP and LD drop.

Usually the case in these situations. Encumbancy is worth a few % at least, generally speaking.

Corbyn's track record on such maters, along with his comrades, needs a more detailed airing once the official pause in campaigning is lifted. There would doubtless be howling and whining from corbynites around negative campaigning but with a set of chumps like Labour, prevention via information provision is better than cure. Out of the mouths oif babes and marxists etc.

Is it my imagination or has Dianne rAbbott been conspicuous by her absence over the last week and a half?

[anonymous-user]

Likes Fast Cars said:

Is it my imagination or has Dianne rAbbott been conspicuous by her absence over the last week and a half?

Nope. If anything it has been May (and only May) vs McDonnell.

[MaxSo]

Likes Fast Cars said:

Vaud said:

So... which polls will be a better indicator? Given the events, I'm guessing the polls early next week after a weekend of more somber campaigning will be indicative.

My hunch is a slight swing to the Tories. Courage under fire, strong against terror, exceptional times, etc.

UKIP and LD drop.

Usually the case in these situations. Encumbancy is worth a few % at least, generally speaking.

I suspect that will probably be the overall change; however, I can also foresee reasons why the change may be small, or possibly even something different:

1. I can see UKIP's decline potentially being reduced, due to a perceived harder line response on terrorism, immigration etc. This would, I presume, negatively impact the Tories.

2. On the other side, I can see potential for some new voters being drawn to Labour as they may be perceived to be offering a different kind of response and overall strategy to that which has been seen before. Is probably going to a be a small number, but some might think, in the light of this week, that a different kind of foreign policy may be the way forward.

3. I can see there being quite a strong focus on perceived weaknesses of the Tories in terms of policing cuts.

I think an awful lot will depend (obviously) on how the current events unfold, whether there are further attacks prior to Election Day, and the tone which the election takes from hereon in.