Snap General Election?
Discussion
AmitG said:
I'm very interested to see what happens with the young people's vote. Every election there is the usual refrain about how young people protest a lot but don't turn out on the day. Will it be different this time?
Are there sufficient numbers of young people of voting age to swing it for Corbyn, or at least make a meaningful difference to the result? Or is it irrelevant compared to the other age groups?
Not enough in terms of numbers, as an example there are around 6 million 18-24 year-olds against 12 million approx for 65+ (numbers from ONS). There are other ranges of course, but no real excess of youth, for example 40-55 year-olds significanrly outnumber 25-40 year-olds. Turnout will make any gap wider since as you suggest, younger voters tend to have a lower turnout. If turnout increased among younger voters the numbers still don't add up.Are there sufficient numbers of young people of voting age to swing it for Corbyn, or at least make a meaningful difference to the result? Or is it irrelevant compared to the other age groups?
New voter registrations were predominantly younger voters but averaged over the 600+ constituencies it amounts to around 4500 per constituency, not enough and it gets worse when we recall that UKIP has in effect stepped aside in key Tory marginals to secure pro-brexit MPs. Over 30 was suggested iirc.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/gene...
AmitG said:
I'm very interested to see what happens with the young people's vote. Every election there is the usual refrain about how young people protest a lot but don't turn out on the day. Will it be different this time?
Are there sufficient numbers of young people of voting age to swing it for Corbyn, or at least make a meaningful difference to the result? Or is it irrelevant compared to the other age groups?
It's not just young voters who might vote Corbyn, there's obviously people who only vote labour. Far left wingers for who Corbyn is the best of a bad bunch, and people willing to vote for anyone that represents change. Are there sufficient numbers of young people of voting age to swing it for Corbyn, or at least make a meaningful difference to the result? Or is it irrelevant compared to the other age groups?
May is all about being the best for Brexit and security. She's not actually representing any change though, shes the continuity vote. Safe hands Theresa. Trump showed that people fed up with the status quo will vote for anyone who actually represents an alternative.
There might now even be pissed off old people, upset with May's "attack on the elderly " I can also see large groups of indifferent middle ground voters not bothering to vote as they'll think the conservatives have it in the bag and there's no point. They're probably a bit fed up of elections and referendums and politicians calling each other names.
It's probably the least interested in an election I've ever been as an adult. I'm sure other people must feel the same.
El stovey said:
It's not just young voters who might vote Corbyn, there's obviously people who only vote labour. Far left wingers for who Corbyn is the best of a bad bunch, and people willing to vote for anyone that represents change.
May is all about being the best for Brexit and security. She's not actually representing any change though, shes the continuity vote. Safe hands Theresa. Trump showed that people fed up with the status quo will vote for anyone who actually represents an alternative.
There might now even be pissed off old people, upset with May's "attack on the elderly " I can also see large groups of indifferent middle ground voters not bothering to vote as they'll think the conservatives have it in the bag and there's no point. They're probably a bit fed up of elections and referendums and politicians calling each other names.
It's probably the least interested in an election I've ever been as an adult. I'm sure other people must feel the same.
That seems to be a series of points backing the likelihood of a surprise Corbyn win, or perhaps not - if not what was it?!May is all about being the best for Brexit and security. She's not actually representing any change though, shes the continuity vote. Safe hands Theresa. Trump showed that people fed up with the status quo will vote for anyone who actually represents an alternative.
There might now even be pissed off old people, upset with May's "attack on the elderly " I can also see large groups of indifferent middle ground voters not bothering to vote as they'll think the conservatives have it in the bag and there's no point. They're probably a bit fed up of elections and referendums and politicians calling each other names.
It's probably the least interested in an election I've ever been as an adult. I'm sure other people must feel the same.
How big do you anticipate the Conservative majority will be?
The Trump result wasn't a surprise due to shifting towards left-liberalism. Nor was the CMD surprise. One might even say that the Leave vote was a win for libertarianism (anti-authoritarian EU) rather than liberalism. The theme is "surprising" rejection of failed left-liberalism.
turbobloke said:
. . .How big do you anticipate the Conservative majority will be?
The Trump result wasn't a surprise due to shifting towards left-liberalism. Nor was the CMD surprise. One might even say that the Leave vote was a win for libertarianism (anti-authoritarian EU) rather than liberalism. The theme is "surprising" rejection of failed left-liberalism.
I think May will win by at least 10 points. Because she occupies the middle ground of Tony Blair. The Trump result wasn't a surprise due to shifting towards left-liberalism. Nor was the CMD surprise. One might even say that the Leave vote was a win for libertarianism (anti-authoritarian EU) rather than liberalism. The theme is "surprising" rejection of failed left-liberalism.
May's policies are quite left liberal. Reducing private schools charitable status, sharing society themes, Much more left liberal than the democrats in the US election. Voting for May is certainly not a vote for anti authoritarianism or anti left liberalism.
The choice in this election is between a far left leader and a centrist red Tory.
She's all about increasing state powers and Internet snooping. You can't possibly imagine she represents libertarianism.
El stovey said:
She's all about increasing state powers and Internet snooping. You can't possibly imagine she represents libertarianism.
You can't possibly imagine I've ever claimed she did! All I've said, at any time ever, is that I've voted Tory because the Conservatives have in my view represented the least worst option, and that in this election TM represents the best of a bad lot. By some margin I would add.PurpleAki said:
El stovey said:
It's probably the least interested in an election I've ever been as an adult. I'm sure other people must feel the same.
I feel the opposite. With Brexit looming and the quality and beliefs of the Labour front bench, it's very important the Conservatives prevail IMO.
El stovey said:
It's probably the least interested in an election I've ever been as an adult. I'm sure other people must feel the same.
Really?More than Brexit, I feel this one matters. We have a perilous economy, world affairs are getting very complicated and we're about to negotiate something that will affect our children's children.
Whilst I'm cynical about the options, I'm taking the choice we have very seriously.
turbobloke said:
PurpleAki said:
El stovey said:
It's probably the least interested in an election I've ever been as an adult. I'm sure other people must feel the same.
I feel the opposite. With Brexit looming and the quality and beliefs of the Labour front bench, it's very important the Conservatives prevail IMO.
This is probably the most important election I have voted in and I have voted in quite a few.
El stovey said:
I think May will win by at least 10 points.
Something like this?CON 44%
LAB 33%
LIBD 8%
UKIP 6%
According to a 2010 vintage BBC 'seat calculator' that would translate into a Conservative majority of 74. I don't recall any boundary changes since 2010 but there will be after 2017.
To reach landslide territory (majority over 100) would require close to CON 45% LAB 32%.
turbobloke said:
Greg66 said:
Labour's support is the least easy to measure, I wonder, and so its figures are the least reliable?
Based on appearances, it's somewhat more volatile and that may be for all manner of reasons. I think it's equally likely to represent differences in polling co methodology in terms of telephone/online, then demographics/turnout in how the raw data is processed.What is interesting is how quiet Farage has been for the election. Britain's most influential politician this century. If he breaks cover in the next week and implies UKippers (mostly older people and pensioners) should vote Tory, then he could swing it for May.
If Farage keeps schtum, a Corbyn win or Corbyn-Sturgeon coalition is looking more and more likely by the day.
Tuna said:
El stovey said:
It's probably the least interested in an election I've ever been as an adult. I'm sure other people must feel the same.
Really?More than Brexit, I feel this one matters. We have a perilous economy, world affairs are getting very complicated and we're about to negotiate something that will affect our children's children.
Whilst I'm cynical about the options, I'm taking the choice we have very seriously.
I'm going to vote for May and I voted for Brexit also. I think she's by far the most able to sort it out and I think her policies tend to be similar by enlarge to my own world view.
I'm not totally against all of Labour's policies though but I don't think Corbyn is up to it and his cabinet are surprisingly even worse. Their costing and sums look a bit lacking.
I'm just saying that I don't feel particularly enthused about it all. I think the conservatives campaign has been woeful and negative. Today they seem to be moving on from calling Corbyn a terrorist sympathiser to attacking Diane Abbott and her terrorist links. It's pathetic and a bit sinister. I want to hear about all the great things May is planning with her huge majority, innovative solutions to solving home grown terrorism, controlling immigration better, dealing with wealth inequality and the other social problems she talks about.
To me, the big issues are home grown terrorism, uncontrollable immigration and rising wealth inequality, none of the candidates seem to be willing to tackle these problems head on.
The only candidate representing change is Corbyn but his change isn't what I'm after really,
Yipper said:
Big spreads in polls / surveys usually mean "uncertainty". The big spread is basically UKippers and pensioners undecided on whether to swing back to Tories or Labour. This is perhaps the election with the biggest number of "swing voters" in modern history. Lots of people are umming and aahing. They would have mostly swung Tory, but their disastrous "rob the old and kids" manifesto has put the cat among the pigeons.
What is interesting is how quiet Farage has been for the election. Britain's most influential politician this century. If he breaks cover in the next week and implies UKippers (mostly older people and pensioners) should vote Tory, then he could swing it for May.
If Farage keeps schtum, a Corbyn win or Corbyn-Sturgeon coalition is looking more and more likely by the day.
Except of course the bookmakers' odds suggest nothing of the sort, but you don't understand them, do you?!What is interesting is how quiet Farage has been for the election. Britain's most influential politician this century. If he breaks cover in the next week and implies UKippers (mostly older people and pensioners) should vote Tory, then he could swing it for May.
If Farage keeps schtum, a Corbyn win or Corbyn-Sturgeon coalition is looking more and more likely by the day.
"...very likely Labour will take the lead in the polls.."
One of those jokey options would require a u-turn from NS.
"Nicola Sturgeon rules out SNP coalition with Labour at Westminster"
"Nicola Sturgeon yesterday insisted Jeremy Corbyn “isn't going anywhere near Downing Street” as she ruled out a coalition deal with Labour"
The other would require a miracle.
"Nicola Sturgeon rules out SNP coalition with Labour at Westminster"
"Nicola Sturgeon yesterday insisted Jeremy Corbyn “isn't going anywhere near Downing Street” as she ruled out a coalition deal with Labour"
The other would require a miracle.
sidicks said:
Yipper said:
Big spreads in polls / surveys usually mean "uncertainty". The big spread is basically UKippers and pensioners undecided on whether to swing back to Tories or Labour. This is perhaps the election with the biggest number of "swing voters" in modern history. Lots of people are umming and aahing. They would have mostly swung Tory, but their disastrous "rob the old and kids" manifesto has put the cat among the pigeons.
What is interesting is how quiet Farage has been for the election. Britain's most influential politician this century. If he breaks cover in the next week and implies UKippers (mostly older people and pensioners) should vote Tory, then he could swing it for May.
If Farage keeps schtum, a Corbyn win or Corbyn-Sturgeon coalition is looking more and more likely by the day.
Except of course the bookmakers' odds suggest nothing of the sort, but you don't understand them, do you?!What is interesting is how quiet Farage has been for the election. Britain's most influential politician this century. If he breaks cover in the next week and implies UKippers (mostly older people and pensioners) should vote Tory, then he could swing it for May.
If Farage keeps schtum, a Corbyn win or Corbyn-Sturgeon coalition is looking more and more likely by the day.
"...very likely Labour will take the lead in the polls.."
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ther...
Yipper said:
The Tories themselves said this morning, today, they "fully expect to fall behind Labour in a poll in the coming days. It will happen"
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ther...
No, as correctly previously 'a Tory source' made that claim. You do understand the difference?http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ther...
What probability do you ascribe to 'very likely'? (for comparison, the IPPC use 'very likely' for 90%-100%)
But the way, how much are you betting on the outcome of the election?!
Edited by sidicks on Monday 29th May 17:26
Yipper said:
The Tories themselves said this morning, today, they "fully expect to fall behind Labour in a poll in the coming days. It will happen"
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ther...
Still pedalling that rubbish then.http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ther...
Fake news!
Well, the fact that the Lib Dems haven't been soaking up a load of Remain votes boosts my faith in the electorate! Whatever you felt, I do think that the outcome has to be respected! The Lib Dems want a 2nd referendum. Of course, if we vote against that particular deal (which they will be responsible for negotiating), they'd be keeping us in the EU.
In the words of Jeremy Clarkson "Right. We should have 24 hours of despair and moaning, and then we will all have to roll up our sleeves and make this s
t shower work.". I think this should be the attitude of Remainers now.
In the words of Jeremy Clarkson "Right. We should have 24 hours of despair and moaning, and then we will all have to roll up our sleeves and make this s
t shower work.". I think this should be the attitude of Remainers now.Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff