Brexit related recession?

Author
Discussion

djc206

12,350 posts

125 months

Monday 24th April 2017
quotequote all
MarshPhantom said:
Why does it make more sense to pay to import lamb from the other side of the world rather than the other side of the channel?
Aside from the really obvious reason that the Southern Hemisphere is enjoying the opposite season to us thereby guaranteeing year round availability?

MarshPhantom

Original Poster:

9,658 posts

137 months

Monday 24th April 2017
quotequote all
sidicks said:
MarshPhantom said:
Why does it make more sense to pay to import lamb from the other side of the world rather than the other side of the channel?
Why does it make sense not to have the choice?
I don't even understand the question.


B'stard Child

28,395 posts

246 months

Monday 24th April 2017
quotequote all
MarshPhantom said:
sidicks said:
MarshPhantom said:
Why does it make more sense to pay to import lamb from the other side of the world rather than the other side of the channel?
Why does it make sense not to have the choice?
I don't even understand the question.
I think that's your problem...........

sidicks

25,218 posts

221 months

Monday 24th April 2017
quotequote all
B'stard Child said:
MarshPhantom said:
sidicks said:
MarshPhantom said:
Why does it make more sense to pay to import lamb from the other side of the world rather than the other side of the channel?
Why does it make sense not to have the choice?
I don't even understand the question.
I think that's your problem...........
beer

AC43

11,486 posts

208 months

Monday 24th April 2017
quotequote all
anonymous said:
[redacted]
anonymous said:
[redacted]
But why, exactly? I've lived in the same area for 29 years and it's a bit busier then it was in 1998 but so what? I genuinely scratch my head about what people are bothered about. If it's busier there's more economic activity which pays more taxes. How is this a bad thing?
Because economies are obsessed with growth. Not all growth is good, especially when it puts extra pressure on services (which are being cut). Industries have economies of scale where further growth will impact on production. The same applies for economics.
Yes what are these services that are supposedly being put under pressure and destroying my standard of living? Err....I now need to pay to have my garden waste taken away......err....that's about it. Genuinely scratching my head.

Murph7355

37,711 posts

256 months

Monday 24th April 2017
quotequote all
MarshPhantom said:
Why does it make more sense to pay to import lamb from the other side of the world rather than the other side of the channel?
Why even bother with the boat ride when you can get immeasurably better quality lamb right next door, any time of the year.

Or maybe that's just me biggrin

nadger

1,411 posts

140 months

Monday 24th April 2017
quotequote all
sidicks said:
nadger said:
Ok, so we leave our largest single trading partner (who have apparently been breaking EU rules on subsidy, I have to bow to your greater knowledge on that score) which COULD theoretically limit our trading base. It would allow governmental intervention, yes, but how would it be funded if we're limiting our trading opportunities?
We aren't limiting our trading opportunities - you do know that there's a whole world outside of the EU?
Of course I do. I'm also aware that the majority of our trade is with the EU, and that as a part of a large trading block we form a more attractive proposition to investors. Only at the weekend it was announced that Trump's prioritising a trade deal with the EU over the U.K.

anonymous-user

54 months

Monday 24th April 2017
quotequote all
andy43 said:
Likes Fast Cars said:
cookie118 said:
Likes Fast Cars said:
Evidence? Read the papers. There is currently a massive concern over the EdF deal as Areva is one of the suppliers, they are fking up big time with massive over-runs on other nuclear projects. Whenever Areva is mentioned so are French government bail-outs they have been given (State Aid). This is just one example, but it's one with which I'm very well acqauinted.

Auto-makers have the subject for a number of years, again a lot press out there especially when investment decisions were being made for new production lines and factories.
It's no use going 'well everyone knows this' and not putting a link to anything.

If it's widely reported in the papers then surely it must be easy to back up PH-XKR's assertion that Siemens received an illegal loan that enabled them to outbid bombardier? I've had a look and can't find anything. Can you?

The same with automakers-can you find evidence of illegal state aid being given to psa for example?

And I've had a look and yes areva have been not so great financially-but again can you supply any evidence of illegality relating to state aid here?

Otherwise it just looks like stuffs being made up.
Starter for 10:

https://miningawareness.wordpress.com/2016/08/11/e...

Now bugger off and let me get on with running the electricity network for a few minutes will you? Thanks laugh

PS: It still hurts my shares in ALSTOM tanked years ago, that's what you call payback for years of loyal service to that Anglo-French "success story" (not).
Quick google - PSA here - http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-13-757_en....
Errm-the psa link is to a report saying that the aid/financing they received was ok according to the European Commission? That doesn't sound illegal to me?

Also worth pointing out that the commission has similarly cleared the restructure of areva.

And finally both links are from where the EU has investigated-so it kind of nixes the point that illegal state aid is handed out and the EU does nothing about it?

sidicks

25,218 posts

221 months

Monday 24th April 2017
quotequote all
nadger said:
Of course I do. I'm also aware that the majority of our trade is with the EU, and that as a part of a large trading block we form a more attractive proposition to investors. Only at the weekend it was announced that Trump's prioritising a trade deal with the EU over the U.K.
We are leaving the EU. That doesn't mean we can't trade with the EU.

///ajd

8,964 posts

206 months

Monday 24th April 2017
quotequote all
sidicks said:
MarshPhantom said:
Why does it make more sense to pay to import lamb from the other side of the world rather than the other side of the channel?
Why does it make sense not to have the choice?
Who says we don't have the choice? I had NZ lamb last week, not especially expensive, not more so than UK that I noticed.

So is this NZ lamb about to be hugely cheaper with a mega NZ free trade deal? Will that push UK lamb farming out of business? Or will it make not much difference? In which case is it worth stuffing our deal with the EU for these 'phantom' great trade deals?


Edited by ///ajd on Monday 24th April 18:45

Likes Fast Cars

2,770 posts

165 months

Monday 24th April 2017
quotequote all
cookie118 said:
andy43 said:
Likes Fast Cars said:
cookie118 said:
Likes Fast Cars said:
Evidence? Read the papers. There is currently a massive concern over the EdF deal as Areva is one of the suppliers, they are fking up big time with massive over-runs on other nuclear projects. Whenever Areva is mentioned so are French government bail-outs they have been given (State Aid). This is just one example, but it's one with which I'm very well acqauinted.

Auto-makers have the subject for a number of years, again a lot press out there especially when investment decisions were being made for new production lines and factories.
It's no use going 'well everyone knows this' and not putting a link to anything.

If it's widely reported in the papers then surely it must be easy to back up PH-XKR's assertion that Siemens received an illegal loan that enabled them to outbid bombardier? I've had a look and can't find anything. Can you?

The same with automakers-can you find evidence of illegal state aid being given to psa for example?

And I've had a look and yes areva have been not so great financially-but again can you supply any evidence of illegality relating to state aid here?

Otherwise it just looks like stuffs being made up.
Starter for 10:

https://miningawareness.wordpress.com/2016/08/11/e...

Now bugger off and let me get on with running the electricity network for a few minutes will you? Thanks laugh

PS: It still hurts my shares in ALSTOM tanked years ago, that's what you call payback for years of loyal service to that Anglo-French "success story" (not).
Quick google - PSA here - http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-13-757_en....
Errm-the psa link is to a report saying that the aid/financing they received was ok according to the European Commission? That doesn't sound illegal to me?

Also worth pointing out that the commission has similarly cleared the restructure of areva.

And finally both links are from where the EU has investigated-so it kind of nixes the point that illegal state aid is handed out and the EU does nothing about it?
Well the EU is just so bloody corrupt and inconsistent anything is possible.

The Areva issue is ongoing, there have been 3 rounds and the previous are still under a cloud it has been hashed around so many times since approx 2003/04, ALSTOM was absorbed into it and there was an agreement to hive-off parts of it to all sorts of other co's (ALSTOM to Groupe Schneider, other ALSTOM parts to GE, remainder into Areva) to avoid a damning fine and censure from the EU authorities. What is now happening is political interference in trying to get it brushed under the carpet (again) given the French elections, EU stability, etc., as well as a number of industry issues (Toshiba / Westinghouse) and the desire to have a European nuclear champion.
fking mess really.

andy43

9,710 posts

254 months

Monday 24th April 2017
quotequote all
cookie118 said:
andy43 said:
Likes Fast Cars said:
cookie118 said:
Likes Fast Cars said:
Evidence? Read the papers. There is currently a massive concern over the EdF deal as Areva is one of the suppliers, they are fking up big time with massive over-runs on other nuclear projects. Whenever Areva is mentioned so are French government bail-outs they have been given (State Aid). This is just one example, but it's one with which I'm very well acqauinted.

Auto-makers have the subject for a number of years, again a lot press out there especially when investment decisions were being made for new production lines and factories.
It's no use going 'well everyone knows this' and not putting a link to anything.

If it's widely reported in the papers then surely it must be easy to back up PH-XKR's assertion that Siemens received an illegal loan that enabled them to outbid bombardier? I've had a look and can't find anything. Can you?

The same with automakers-can you find evidence of illegal state aid being given to psa for example?

And I've had a look and yes areva have been not so great financially-but again can you supply any evidence of illegality relating to state aid here?

Otherwise it just looks like stuffs being made up.
Starter for 10:

https://miningawareness.wordpress.com/2016/08/11/e...

Now bugger off and let me get on with running the electricity network for a few minutes will you? Thanks laugh

PS: It still hurts my shares in ALSTOM tanked years ago, that's what you call payback for years of loyal service to that Anglo-French "success story" (not).
Quick google - PSA here - http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-13-757_en....
Errm-the psa link is to a report saying that the aid/financing they received was ok according to the European Commission? That doesn't sound illegal to me?

Also worth pointing out that the commission has similarly cleared the restructure of areva.

And finally both links are from where the EU has investigated-so it kind of nixes the point that illegal state aid is handed out and the EU does nothing about it?
Nothing is illegal in the EU if the EU wishes it not to be.
Bent is the word I'd use in preference to illegal.

Likes Fast Cars

2,770 posts

165 months

Monday 24th April 2017
quotequote all
andy43 said:
Nothing is illegal in the EU if the EU wishes it not to be.
Bent is the word I'd use in preference to illegal.
...not to mention "never audited"

anonymous-user

54 months

Monday 24th April 2017
quotequote all
Likes Fast Cars said:
...not to mention "never audited"
False: https://fullfact.org/europe/did-auditors-sign-eu-b...

Likes Fast Cars said:
Well the EU is just so bloody corrupt and inconsistent anything is possible.
So that's a no on the proof then? wink

nadger

1,411 posts

140 months

Monday 24th April 2017
quotequote all
sidicks said:
We are leaving the EU. That doesn't mean we can't trade with the EU.
True, but the likelihood of a hard brexit would probably result in trade tariffs, making trade significantly more expensive.

andy43

9,710 posts

254 months

Monday 24th April 2017
quotequote all
cookie118 said:
Likes Fast Cars said:
...not to mention "never audited"
False: https://fullfact.org/europe/did-auditors-sign-eu-b...

Likes Fast Cars said:
Well the EU is just so bloody corrupt and inconsistent anything is possible.
So that's a no on the proof then? wink
You're 100% correct.
The EU's auditors have indeed signed off their own the EU's books.
I think they noted some significant errors, but were persuaded minded that this need not concern them.

Likes Fast Cars

2,770 posts

165 months

Monday 24th April 2017
quotequote all
andy43 said:
cookie118 said:
Likes Fast Cars said:
...not to mention "never audited"
False: https://fullfact.org/europe/did-auditors-sign-eu-b...

Likes Fast Cars said:
Well the EU is just so bloody corrupt and inconsistent anything is possible.
So that's a no on the proof then? wink
You're 100% correct.
The EU's auditors have indeed signed off their own the EU's books.
I think they noted some significant errors, but were persuaded minded that this need not concern them.
No change there then.

sidicks

25,218 posts

221 months

Monday 24th April 2017
quotequote all
///ajd said:
Who says we don't have the choice? I had NZ lamb last week, not especially expensive, not more so than UK that I noticed.

So is this NZ lamb about to be hugely cheaper with a mega NZ free trade deal? Will that push UK lamb farming out of business? Or will it make not much difference? In which case is it worth stuffing our deal with the EU for these 'phantom' great trade deals?
So all of a sudden you're in favour of protectionist policies. Interesting.

sidicks

25,218 posts

221 months

Monday 24th April 2017
quotequote all
nadger said:
True, but the likelihood of a hard brexit would probably result in trade tariffs, making trade significantly more expensive.
Why would the EU choose to make trade more expensive, given they export more to us?

Likes Fast Cars

2,770 posts

165 months

Monday 24th April 2017
quotequote all
sidicks said:
nadger said:
True, but the likelihood of a hard brexit would probably result in trade tariffs, making trade significantly more expensive.
Why would the EU choose to make trade more expensive, given they export more to us?
Because they're fking idiots laugh

Junk-man would do that just to spite the UK.