Brexit related recession?

[nadger]

sidicks said:

Why would the EU choose to make trade more expensive, given they export more to us?

Not as a % of whole production they don't! There are lots of reasons they would, for instance in order to make an example of the UK.

[sidicks]

Likes Fast Cars said:

Because they're fking idiots

Junk-man would do that just to spite the UK.

And these are the people we should choose to trade with at the expense of the rest of the world? I'm sure it's logical to some!

[sidicks]

nadger said:

Not as a % of whole production they don't! There are lots of reasons they would, for instance in order to make an example of the UK.

In € terms.

So the best reason you can come up with not to leave the EU is that those people you want to pretend have our best interests at heart will deliberately disadvantage their own economy to sabotage ours as some form of retribution?

Righto.

[B'stard Child]

sidicks said:

///ajd said:

Who says we don't have the choice? I had NZ lamb last week, not especially expensive, not more so than UK that I noticed.

So is this NZ lamb about to be hugely cheaper with a mega NZ free trade deal? Will that push UK lamb farming out of business? Or will it make not much difference? In which case is it worth stuffing our deal with the EU for these 'phantom' great trade deals?

So all of a sudden you're in favour of protectionist policies. Interesting.

Of course he is - that's what the EU is at the core

[jjlynn27]

I love the desperation to blame EU to the point of making up lies. On the internet forum.
'Oh no EU is preventing us from importing the lamb!'
'No they don't. Here is the link that you can purchase from today'
'Oh no, they didn't audit their books'.
'They did. Here.'
'Yea, but that's not good enough, is it!'.

[Likes Fast Cars]

One thing is for certain, after Brexit it won't matter.

[turbobloke]

cookie118 said:

https://fullfact.org/europe/did-auditors-sign-eu-b...

These independent auditors, how independent are they when the European Court of Auditors is populated by EU states with members appointed by the Council of the European Union - though we shouldn't forget the ~800 staff on top.

Following the Maastricht Treaty the ECA was elevated to the status of an EU Institution alongside the European Parliament, the Commission, the Council of the European Union, and the European Court of Justice. What greater signal of independence could we seek.

Civitas said:

For the last 18 years, the court has noted substantial misspending in EU accounts.

Signing off substantial misspending is clearly within a new EU redefinition of signing off, to add to the redefinition of independent, but not elsewhere where any vestige of probity remains.

There's nearly $1 billion of fraud per year (Reuters following OLAF) with the biggest concentrations in Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary. How come OLAF is saying what the independent auditors shy away from?

When the EU investigated fraud and looked at the report they paid for, they published each country's subsection but not the section detailing fraud within EU institutions. This is a new EU definition of 'open and transparent' to add to the redefinitions of 'independent' and 'signed off'.

The Parliament Magazine said:

Following publication of the EU anti-corruption report...what seemed most remarkable was the absence of an assessment of strengths and weaknesses within the EU institutions themselves....such a chapter was initially foreseen for the report, but was eventually dropped.

Full Factoid is more like it.

[sidicks]

jjlynn27 said:

I love the desperation to blame EU to the point of making up lies. On the internet forum.
'Oh no EU is preventing us from importing the lamb!'
'No they don't. Here is the link that you can purchase from today'
'Oh no, they didn't audit their books'.
'They did. Here.'
'Yea, but that's not good enough, is it!'.

Who said that?

[Likes Fast Cars]

turbobloke said:

cookie118 said:

https://fullfact.org/europe/did-auditors-sign-eu-b...

These independent auditors, how independent are they when the European Court of Auditors is populated by EU states with members appointed by the Council of the European Union - though we shouldn't forget the ~800 staff on top.

Following the Maastricht Treaty the ECA was elevated to the status of an EU Institution alongside the European Parliament, the Commission, the Council of the European Union, and the European Court of Justice. What greater signal of independence could we seek.

Civitas said:

For the last 18 years, the court has noted substantial misspending in EU accounts.

Signing off substantial misspending is clearly within a new EU redefinition of signing off, to add to the redefinition of independent, but not elsewhere where any vestige of probity remains.

There's nearly $1 billion of fraud per year (Reuters following OLAF) with the biggest concentrations in Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary. How come OLAF is saying what the independent auditors shy away from?

When the EU investigated fraud and looked at the report they paid for, they published each country's subsection but not the section detailing fraud within EU institutions. This is a new EU definition of 'open and transparent' to add to the redefinitions of 'independent' and 'signed off'.

The Parliament Magazine said:

Following publication of the EU anti-corruption report...what seemed most remarkable was the absence of an assessment of strengths and weaknesses within the EU institutions themselves....such a chapter was initially foreseen for the report, but was eventually dropped.

Full Factoid is more like it.

The anti-corruption bit is a farce, there are actually laws such as the Bribery Act which most of these EU countries - and the EU istelf - would fall foul of!

[///ajd]

sidicks said:

///ajd said:

Who says we don't have the choice? I had NZ lamb last week, not especially expensive, not more so than UK that I noticed.

So is this NZ lamb about to be hugely cheaper with a mega NZ free trade deal? Will that push UK lamb farming out of business? Or will it make not much difference? In which case is it worth stuffing our deal with the EU for these 'phantom' great trade deals?

So all of a sudden you're in favour of protectionist policies. Interesting.

Not necessarily.

But interesting that you recognise that being in the EU offes some protection for our industries. I don't remember the Vote Leave team pointing that out, though their chief economist did warn about the likelihood of running down our car industry.

NZ lamb is a good example to show how hollow the "great new trade deals" myth is though.

[Likes Fast Cars]

///ajd said:

sidicks said:

///ajd said:

Who says we don't have the choice? I had NZ lamb last week, not especially expensive, not more so than UK that I noticed.

So is this NZ lamb about to be hugely cheaper with a mega NZ free trade deal? Will that push UK lamb farming out of business? Or will it make not much difference? In which case is it worth stuffing our deal with the EU for these 'phantom' great trade deals?

So all of a sudden you're in favour of protectionist policies. Interesting.

Not necessarily.

But interesting that you recognise that being in the EU offes some protection for our industries. I don't remember the Vote Leave team pointing that out, though their chief economist did warn about the likelihood of running down our car industry.

NZ lamb is a good example to show how hollow the "great new trade deals" myth is though.

Doesn't need a trade deal to import lamb (or anything else), would be under WTO Rules.

[sidicks]

Likes Fast Cars said:

Doesn't need a trade deal to import lamb (or anything else), would be under WTO Rules.

New Zealand have emphasised their desire to agree a free trade deal.

[///ajd]

jjlynn27 said:

I love the desperation to blame EU to the point of making up lies. On the internet forum.
'Oh no EU is preventing us from importing the lamb!'
'No they don't. Here is the link that you can purchase from today'
'Oh no, they didn't audit their books'.
'They did. Here.'
'Yea, but that's not good enough, is it!'.

Its impressive debate isn't it.

Next we'll hear that we are failing to look at the complexities of lag in the lamb cycle.

Or something.

Edited by ///ajd on Monday 24th April 19:47

[Likes Fast Cars]

sidicks said:

Likes Fast Cars said:

Doesn't need a trade deal to import lamb (or anything else), would be under WTO Rules.

New Zealand have emphasised their desire to agree a free trade deal.

Along with Australia and others, as you know

The rush to the UK's door to do deals is amazing, watch the UK ink more deals in 2 years than the Eu has managed in its entire miserable existence.

[B'stard Child]

///ajd said:

sidicks said:

///ajd said:

Who says we don't have the choice? I had NZ lamb last week, not especially expensive, not more so than UK that I noticed.

So is this NZ lamb about to be hugely cheaper with a mega NZ free trade deal? Will that push UK lamb farming out of business? Or will it make not much difference? In which case is it worth stuffing our deal with the EU for these 'phantom' great trade deals?

So all of a sudden you're in favour of protectionist policies. Interesting.

Not necessarily.

But interesting that you recognise that being in the EU offes some protection for our industries. I don't remember the Vote Leave team pointing that out, though their chief economist did warn about the likelihood of running down our car industry.

NZ lamb is a good example to show how hollow the "great new trade deals" myth is though.

280,000 tonnes a year is imported free from Tariff into the EU - 50% of that coming to the UK

Hence why it's probably only slightly more expensive than home grown

[///ajd]

sidicks said:

Likes Fast Cars said:

Doesn't need a trade deal to import lamb (or anything else), would be under WTO Rules.

New Zealand have emphasised their desire to agree a free trade deal.

Great
- what products do they want to reduce tariffs on?
- are out farmers happy about this?
- how much cheaper will our lamb be, and will it be worth it to pay the extra bills to pay for closed UK lamb farms?

[Likes Fast Cars]

///ajd said:

sidicks said:

Likes Fast Cars said:

Doesn't need a trade deal to import lamb (or anything else), would be under WTO Rules.

New Zealand have emphasised their desire to agree a free trade deal.

Great
- what products do they want to reduce tariffs on?
- are out farmers happy about this?
- how much cheaper will our lamb be, and will it be worth it to pay the extra bills to pay for closed UK lamb farms?

You're jumping to conclusions, who said anything about closing farms? If they were to start dumping perhaps it becomes a problem. Obviously any such deals are done to meet supply & demand, and to create / support fair competition.

Our farmers may well be a lot happier about this than the current EU CAP, although we'd have to ask them.

[maffski]

nadger said:

sidicks said:

We are leaving the EU. That doesn't mean we can't trade with the EU.

True, but the likelihood of a hard brexit would probably result in trade tariffs, making trade significantly more expensive.

Were that to happen it tends to result in two things.

Substitution - we would sell to the markets that were 'a bit less profitable' than the EU was before the tariffs - you're not obliged to sell your goods in a particular nation. This 'a bit less profitable' location might be the UK or other nations.

Adjustments to the comparative exchange rate to absorb those tariffs.

Trade is never a bad thing, and so any side which puts a barrier in the way is hurting itself more than anyone else. Hopefully we're smart enough not to have those barriers regardless of what the EU chooses to do.

sidicks said:

jjlynn27 said:

...Oh no EU is preventing us from importing the lamb...

Who said that?

Actually, Phil Hogan, eu agriculture commissioner, today - BBC link

'...He asked whether British farmers and consumers would accept "hormone beef and chlorine chicken" on their supermarket shelves.

"I seriously doubt it. There may yet be a bloodbath over this issues," he said...'

It was on the subject of the UK allowing imports of foodstuffs produced to US standards. Of course it's just concern for British citizens. Absolutely nothing to do with the fact 37% of Irish food exports go to the UK.

[///ajd]

B'stard Child said:

///ajd said:

sidicks said:

///ajd said:

Who says we don't have the choice? I had NZ lamb last week, not especially expensive, not more so than UK that I noticed.

So is this NZ lamb about to be hugely cheaper with a mega NZ free trade deal? Will that push UK lamb farming out of business? Or will it make not much difference? In which case is it worth stuffing our deal with the EU for these 'phantom' great trade deals?

So all of a sudden you're in favour of protectionist policies. Interesting.

Not necessarily.

But interesting that you recognise that being in the EU offes some protection for our industries. I don't remember the Vote Leave team pointing that out, though their chief economist did warn about the likelihood of running down our car industry.

NZ lamb is a good example to show how hollow the "great new trade deals" myth is though.

280,000 tonnes a year is imported free from Tariff into the EU - 50% of that coming to the UK

Hence why it's probably only slightly more expensive than home grown

Are you saying we don't need a free trade deal with NZ for lamb as we already import loads tariff free?

Why did a brexiteer bring it up as an issue? Are these "great trade deal" stories just myths based on "bendy banana" type facts?

[nadger]

sidicks said:

nadger said:

Not as a % of whole production they don't! There are lots of reasons they would, for instance in order to make an example of the UK.

In € terms.

So the best reason you can come up with not to leave the EU is that those people you want to pretend have our best interests at heart will deliberately disadvantage their own economy to sabotage ours as some form of retribution?

Righto.

Absolutely! Thats obviously the best reason to remain! :roll eyes:
[sidicks mode] so the best you can do on an internet forum is critique others' opinions rather than provide your own for analysis [/sidicks mode]