The Future of Power Generation in Great Britain
Discussion
Paddy_N_Murphy said:
There won’t be 1000mile range EVs to simply satisfy his false argument nor brought to market so a few simple folks who cannot adopt change sleep better at night.
The business model wouldn’t stack up, nor would it be desired
What false argument are you referring to?The business model wouldn’t stack up, nor would it be desired
EV range has increased over recent years, it will continue to increase.
The business model for EVs and unreliables has never "stacked up" in a free market, it fails without subsidies.
Paddy_N_Murphy said:
This is getting painful.
There are discussions on here how mass 'localised' batteries via the home will allow the ebb and flow of power storage to smooth out the generation demand.
There are also talks on this thread that it is becoming increasingly clear in the last 12 months that Battery storage is the actual future for the grid on the whole.
Then there are folks on here that say that the Western Australia battery achieves sweet f
k all
(after they get their ABC learning Abacus out and correlate their back of fag packet calcs)
We have established however the Australian Battery does exactly what it says on the tin and a success in doing the job it has been tasked to do.
There are folks on here that say Batteries are not feasible - due to cost and scaleability.
You've since come out and said that the 'mass storage' solution (top sentences) won't work because EV's will be 1,000 miler batteries and no one will plug them in.
I don't believe for one minute the market wants, or the economics in a car purchase or lease will support a 1,000mile battery (in a truck - perhaps, but again unlikely - it is not needed) however to break the concept of localised Home storage you would rather propel the fallacy of a 1,000mile EV
Which in itself would ironically suggest the leaps and bounds of the battery and the rapid cost reduction.
So which is it?
(1) Battery performance will increase four fold from today and drop by 75% too to make a 1,000 mile EV ?
(2) Or Batteries are st and too expensive to prop up the Grid?
Why does battery performance need to increase four fold to achieve a 1000 mile EV?There are discussions on here how mass 'localised' batteries via the home will allow the ebb and flow of power storage to smooth out the generation demand.
There are also talks on this thread that it is becoming increasingly clear in the last 12 months that Battery storage is the actual future for the grid on the whole.
Then there are folks on here that say that the Western Australia battery achieves sweet f
k all (after they get their ABC learning Abacus out and correlate their back of fag packet calcs)
We have established however the Australian Battery does exactly what it says on the tin and a success in doing the job it has been tasked to do.
There are folks on here that say Batteries are not feasible - due to cost and scaleability.
You've since come out and said that the 'mass storage' solution (top sentences) won't work because EV's will be 1,000 miler batteries and no one will plug them in.
I don't believe for one minute the market wants, or the economics in a car purchase or lease will support a 1,000mile battery (in a truck - perhaps, but again unlikely - it is not needed) however to break the concept of localised Home storage you would rather propel the fallacy of a 1,000mile EV
Which in itself would ironically suggest the leaps and bounds of the battery and the rapid cost reduction.
So which is it?
(1) Battery performance will increase four fold from today and drop by 75% too to make a 1,000 mile EV ?
(2) Or Batteries are s
t and too expensive to prop up the Grid? What has to drop by 75%?
EV range is currently at the right order of magnitude to achieve 1000 miles within the near future. Battery storage for the grid is currently several orders of order magnitude lower than would be required to provide meaningful battery support for the grid.
V8 Fettler said:
Paddy_N_Murphy said:
There won’t be 1000mile range EVs to simply satisfy his false argument nor brought to market so a few simple folks who cannot adopt change sleep better at night.
The business model wouldn’t stack up, nor would it be desired
What false argument are you referring to?The business model wouldn’t stack up, nor would it be desired
EV range has increased over recent years, it will continue to increase.
The business model for EVs and unreliables has never "stacked up" in a free market, it fails without subsidies.
All CO2 free with no fossil fuel energy employed at all.
In the past there were schemes to deal with this challenge.
Horses were plentiful and horse borne travel, whether personal or as a group, dealt with range limitations by having relay stations where a horse or a team of horses could be exchanged.
The needs and economics of travel today could be managed in the same way - especially in a fully autonomous road travel environment.
Assuming there might be some resistance to the "change" of having to change vehicles during a long journey (until people get used to it) the Stagecoach concept might be more attractive. With the vehicle as a utility device rather than a personal statement the design concepts could be standardised and common battery installations might then be available. So just swap a battery at a service point rather like filling up.
Since people will not be driving, just being chauffeured, they will have little need to take extended rest breaks. Waiting whilst a battery recharges would likely be unacceptable for most who just need to get from one place to another. An opportunity to take a comfort break and stretch ones legs would be acceptable but not much more than that.
Of course the battery change station would have a shop available so one could top up with whatever was needed for the journey - mostly refreshments and entertainment that could not be downloaded. Retail therapy to relieve the boredom of travel.
The great thing about renting your transport on demand would be the freedom it offers. No need to deliberate about what sort of vehicle to buy for variable needs - just choose whichever type you need on the day.
From a power system POV what you get is the backup batteries (or at least some of them) that can be allocated to transport as demand arises. No competing interests and optimal economies of scale and resource utilisation.
From a government POV there is the opportunity to use safety and security arguments to take control of the entire service concept in a way that would be awkward, politically, without a change of approach that autonomy will represent. However, eliminating the individual human error problem with autonomy technology would be hard to argue against and knowing where everyone is, where they have been and where they are going on a minute by minute basis would surely have an appeal to the public for reasons of security. Even at the mundane level social problems like littering and fly tipping would be eliminated (or become a very profitable tax) immediately. Who could possibly argue against it?
The chances are that such a concept will be developed in the huge market of China and the direction of the technology will be determined by whatever happens there.
How all of that will affect the demands on the Power grid or the generation requirements that feed it may not be quite so easy to predict.
V8 Fettler said:
EV range is currently at the right order of magnitude to achieve 1000 miles within the near future. Battery storage for the grid is currently several orders of order magnitude lower than would be required to provide meaningful battery support for the grid.
What is the point of a 1000 mile battery in something that can be topped up every night? You'd lose efficiency lugging the 75% of the battery, that you use once a year, around.Hmm...
Rental range-extender batteries?
Of interest; there has been no coal burned for power generation for 55 hours and counting, which once this period comes to an end will represent the longest period without coal burning since the last one… which was last week at 55 hours total.
These renewables really aren’t working are they? I expect my lights to not be working when I get in due to this.
These renewables really aren’t working are they? I expect my lights to not be working when I get in due to this.
Google placed a bet of sorts, they paid well-qualified green scientists and engineers to show "that it aint so". It turned out to be so. In that sense the bet has already been lost on a large scale.
We're not yet in a position, with unreliables making so small a contribution to meeting total global energy demand, to notice their malign impacts in full.
Bad enough that bird and bat mincers are placing vulnerable people in fuel poverty with pensioners burning books to keep warm affordably in our 'warm wet global warming winters'.
We're not yet in a position, with unreliables making so small a contribution to meeting total global energy demand, to notice their malign impacts in full.
Bad enough that bird and bat mincers are placing vulnerable people in fuel poverty with pensioners burning books to keep warm affordably in our 'warm wet global warming winters'.
JD said:
Of interest; there has been no coal burned for power generation for 55 hours and counting, which once this period comes to an end will represent the longest period without coal burning since the last one… which was last week at 55 hours total.
These renewables really aren’t working are they? I expect my lights to not be working when I get in due to this.
Firstly there's not a lot of coal capacity left and, if I recall correctly, it is only allowed to operate for a constrained number of hours between now and 2025 by when our wonderful past leaders have deemed that the last coal fired generation will be eliminated.These renewables really aren’t working are they? I expect my lights to not be working when I get in due to this.
Given the constraints and the commercial business which own and operate the plants having a mandate from shareholders that expects them to try to make a profit of some sort - or at least minimise a loss - they are going to be picking and choosing when they wish to generate anything at all rather carefully. With days getting longer and a relatively warm few days in prospect demand is probably constrained, can be taken up by gas and probably does not offer any opportunity for positive revenue let alone a decent profit. Why would they want to be running at all? There are likely to be future times that are commercially more favourable.
Still, the public are not told about this so they assume that "clean" "renewables" are wonderful and out-competing traditional technology in a straight competition.
Then, separately, they wonder why the bills are going up.
JD said:
Of interest; there has been no coal burned for power generation for 55 hours and counting, which once this period comes to an end will represent the longest period without coal burning since the last one… which was last week at 55 hours total.
These renewables really aren’t working are they? I expect my lights to not be working when I get in due to this.
But we we're OK, the lights are still on, because we've got Nuclear and have been burning gas and wood chips like there's no tomorrow, and demand is as low as a snake's belly.These renewables really aren’t working are they? I expect my lights to not be working when I get in due to this.
Paddy_N_Murphy said:
Currently EV's are good for circa 250miles a charge.
Prices of good EV's are expensive at purchase price - largely due to battery costs. If you are looking to increase capacity (see above) you will inevitably increase this cost too.
So your entire reasoning for the 'home grid' support was that at a wave of the hand folks will be driving around in EV's with 1,000 mile range - that we have also discussed and 'unrequired'.
If the technology suddenly appeared and we could get batteries with the same cost, size and weight to do 4x the mileage they do now, we probably wouldn't get 1000 mile EVs. We would most likely get cheaper, lighter, more compact EVs that could do 500 miles.Prices of good EV's are expensive at purchase price - largely due to battery costs. If you are looking to increase capacity (see above) you will inevitably increase this cost too.
So your entire reasoning for the 'home grid' support was that at a wave of the hand folks will be driving around in EV's with 1,000 mile range - that we have also discussed and 'unrequired'.
Rostfritt said:
If the technology suddenly appeared and we could get batteries with the same cost, size and weight to do 4x the mileage they do now, we probably wouldn't get 1000 mile EVs. We would most likely get cheaper, lighter, more compact EVs that could do 500 miles.
If you keep the speed down and reduce the weight because full autonomy offers safety benefits (especially at, say, 50mph max speed) that moves the design objectives back towards lightness rather than safety cells, you might just be able to come up with a configuration that would give near 500 miles from developments of existing technology. However, as with all things technological except computers and their kin, the rate of technology advance is likely to slow significantly as the limits of physics are reached unless something totally new comes along and is economically viable.One challenge you have not mentioned is achieving re-charging speed comparable to ICE technology as a target for mass acceptance (other than battery swapping).
On the other hand 500 miles at 50mph represents 10 hours travelling - like a long flight - and thing might be enough for a day for most travellers. So overnighting whilst charging might not be unacceptable. Or even overdaying before travelling at night if power generation availability should dictate such a need.
The key will be managed speed to either extend range in periods of generation shortfall or, maybe, act as a demand to make use of excess production now and again.
There are, of course, challenges if you push existing batteries for outright performance and that seems likely to continue although the things that make the performance problematic may differ from technology to technology.
Suffice to observe that, for example, Nissan with the New Leaf have an official measurement of performance that credits the car with around 230 miles range (from memory) but claim no more than circa 160 for real life use. Not necessarily different to an ICE vehicle of course but somewhat longer to recharge - especially if battery management is programmed to optimise the charge rate to protect the battery's life.
wst said:
hat is the point of a 1000 mile battery in something that can be topped up every night? You'd lose efficiency lugging the 75% of the battery, that you use once a year, around.
Hmm...
Rental range-extender batteries?
The problem with range extending batteries is that they will take space up that you likely need for luggage and passengers. Hmm...
Rental range-extender batteries?
Toltec said:
wst said:
hat is the point of a 1000 mile battery in something that can be topped up every night? You'd lose efficiency lugging the 75% of the battery, that you use once a year, around.
Hmm...
Rental range-extender batteries?
The problem with range extending batteries is that they will take space up that you likely need for luggage and passengers. Hmm...
Rental range-extender batteries?
Paddy_N_Murphy said:
Why are you thinking I’m straight lines?
Solar power has both hugely improved in efficiency, and reduced in cost.
Why think ‘big battery’ rather than how to harvest free energy in solar panel swathed cars.
Charge - albeit slowly- as you drive. That’s the ‘free’ range extender. The free charge crawling in traffic, parked at the supermarket
I think having a solar roof and bonnet would make some sense for any EV or hybrid. Probably won't provide a noticeable amount of power when driving but would give a few percent if parked up all day. Every little helps! Could even put power back into the grid when the car is full.Solar power has both hugely improved in efficiency, and reduced in cost.
Why think ‘big battery’ rather than how to harvest free energy in solar panel swathed cars.
Charge - albeit slowly- as you drive. That’s the ‘free’ range extender. The free charge crawling in traffic, parked at the supermarket
Having a Prius, it would be good to get in and have the battery on green each time.
Paddy_N_Murphy said:
V8 Fettler said:
Paddy_N_Murphy said:
This is getting painful.
There are discussions on here how mass 'localised' batteries via the home will allow the ebb and flow of power storage to smooth out the generation demand.
There are also talks on this thread that it is becoming increasingly clear in the last 12 months that Battery storage is the actual future for the grid on the whole.
Then there are folks on here that say that the Western Australia battery achieves sweet fk all
(after they get their ABC learning Abacus out and correlate their back of fag packet calcs)
We have established however the Australian Battery does exactly what it says on the tin and a success in doing the job it has been tasked to do.
There are folks on here that say Batteries are not feasible - due to cost and scaleability.
You've since come out and said that the 'mass storage' solution (top sentences) won't work because EV's will be 1,000 miler batteries and no one will plug them in.
I don't believe for one minute the market wants, or the economics in a car purchase or lease will support a 1,000mile battery (in a truck - perhaps, but again unlikely - it is not needed) however to break the concept of localised Home storage you would rather propel the fallacy of a 1,000mile EV
Which in itself would ironically suggest the leaps and bounds of the battery and the rapid cost reduction.
So which is it?
(1) Battery performance will increase four fold from today and drop by 75% too to make a 1,000 mile EV ?
(2) Or Batteries are st and too expensive to prop up the Grid?
Why does battery performance need to increase four fold to achieve a 1000 mile EV?There are discussions on here how mass 'localised' batteries via the home will allow the ebb and flow of power storage to smooth out the generation demand.
There are also talks on this thread that it is becoming increasingly clear in the last 12 months that Battery storage is the actual future for the grid on the whole.
Then there are folks on here that say that the Western Australia battery achieves sweet f
k all (after they get their ABC learning Abacus out and correlate their back of fag packet calcs)
We have established however the Australian Battery does exactly what it says on the tin and a success in doing the job it has been tasked to do.
There are folks on here that say Batteries are not feasible - due to cost and scaleability.
You've since come out and said that the 'mass storage' solution (top sentences) won't work because EV's will be 1,000 miler batteries and no one will plug them in.
I don't believe for one minute the market wants, or the economics in a car purchase or lease will support a 1,000mile battery (in a truck - perhaps, but again unlikely - it is not needed) however to break the concept of localised Home storage you would rather propel the fallacy of a 1,000mile EV
Which in itself would ironically suggest the leaps and bounds of the battery and the rapid cost reduction.
So which is it?
(1) Battery performance will increase four fold from today and drop by 75% too to make a 1,000 mile EV ?
(2) Or Batteries are s
t and too expensive to prop up the Grid? What has to drop by 75%?
EV range is currently at the right order of magnitude to achieve 1000 miles within the near future. Battery storage for the grid is currently several orders of order magnitude lower than would be required to provide meaningful battery support for the grid.
Prices of good EV's are expensive at purchase price - largely due to battery costs. If you are looking to increase capacity (see above) you will inevitably increase this cost too.
So your entire reasoning for the 'home grid' support was that at a wave of the hand folks will be driving around in EV's with 1,000 mile range - that we have also discussed and 'unrequired'.
The reality is that the unreliablists want to inflict short range vehicles on car owners with all the associated infrastructure costs and inconvenience in an attempt to support the unreliable operation of wind/solar etc.
Historical data shows increases in EV range, the increases are not going to level out in the near future
https://electrek.co/2017/12/26/average-electric-ca...
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