The Future of Power Generation in Great Britain

[LongQ]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

The brighter minds was reference to himself, as opposed to the nation as a whole.

LongQ said:

We install wind turbines (in much the same way that people in the UK were persuaded to shift from Petrol to Diesel engines) because they are presented as "virtuous" for "the future of the planet". It would be more sensible to be investing in reliable, dispatchable generation since out world is ever more reliant on constant, unbroken supplies of electricity.

I'm fairly sure the vast vast majority of owners and fleet buyers did not buy diesels for the "virtuous" for "the future of the planet"

But for the 'perceived' economy, frugality, and range.

Then they were misled for some reason.

Continental Europe was for decades a bastion of noisy smoky diesel powered personal transport that was not well supported in the UK.

In part that was because Petrol was much more expensive in Europe than diesel, often due to different types of tax regimes.

When various manufacturers greatly improved diesel engines back in the 80s the situation changed. Although diesels were more expensive than petrol to buy and service if one was driving enough miles they might be effective as fuel was cheaper. That a few halo models had remarkable handy performance due to the spread of Turbochargers, especially on diesels, helped somewhat.

And so people bought diesels and then the lower CO2 "benefit" was pointed out and a few people liked that but the tax on diesel went up and the base price of the fuel went up and we arrived at people have few options as manufacturers were more than content to push diesels across the EU market for economies of scale.

So we ended up with low mileage drivers buy diesel to run around town thinking they would be saving money and the planet.

At some point someone "discovered" the particulates problem. What a surprise.

So what we have is "official encouragement" by way of taxation that, presumably, must be based on "expert advice" since I doubt any recent politician of note would have a clue. It appears to be less than fit for purpose.

Or is it merely another "compo" situation where some do-gooder can pontificate and hand out money that is not theirs and feel good about it?

Will we end up with the same situation related to "renewables" advice I wonder?

[wc98]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

The bulk of that data I posted was for the Dudgeon Windfarm - 50km from the harbour / shore.
They are out there 24/7 based off of a SOV / Mothership.
They (CTV's) only run for the shore / harbour every 10 days or more I would say.

It / all wind farms are 24/7, scheduled, costed, planned and manned.
They stand down when they have to. Even when the MetOcean data looks marginal they sail, and try to safely push on.






Dogger will be 'out over the horizon', but that itself has a different scenario due to the shallow waters messing with the swell in to a shorter chop (lower wave height) according to the data I've seen.


Liveaboard stuff, that takes the kit, parts, and stays out there throughout using heave compensated gangways for the guys to walk over.

the equipment being offshore and actually carrying out maintenance are two very different things. a bit like rope access crews always being on a rig, but having many days sitting on their hands due to wind speed/weather. scheduling, costing ,planning are things carried out by people sitting at desks. the paper exercise is very different to what actually happens at the sharp end in reality. i am sure there will be a simple chart with no industry speak/acronyms somewhere that shows a basic number for maintenance days lost versus those planned.

i also suspect getting a look at it for anyone outside the industry will be very difficult . the nicely coloured charts and graphs coupled with pages of green industry speak appear to be standard public consumption fodder

all shallow banks and reefs create very different sea conditions due to the current speeding up when a body of water is compressed as it travels over the feature . wind over tide in those scenarios is something you don't want to be out in unless you are in a bloody big boat . (the lights going out i mentioned earlier was in a mates 10 metre 150 k pleasure boat ) . fortunately he is a professional skipper ex yachty with atlantic crossings so i was in good hands .

[LongQ]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

Less Great Britain - but Europe :

Europe adds 6.1 GW of wind energy capacity in first half of 2017,
yet you naysayers will be pleased to hear its not all positive news.

An interesting picture with that article.

How many thousands of tons of concrete and steel now buried, never to be recovered, just under the surface of whatever that ecosystem was?

How many thousands of tonnes of "dangerous" CO2 emitted in the construction phase of the project?

[WatchfulEye]

In News from across the pond, the nuclear reactor project in South Carolina using the Toshiba/Westinghouse AP1000 plant design is being cancelled, and construction of the VC Summer reactors 2 and 3 is to stop with them half-built.

A 2nd project for 2 similar reactors in Georgia is also looking increasingly shaky, as some contributions to the project are contingent on the VS Summer plant being finished.

Prior to the Westinghouse bankruptcy, Toshiba had been looking at building 3 of these reactors at Moorside near Sellafield. Following the bankruptcy, and Toshiba's financial difficulties, it seems doubtful that this project has any life left in it. With the South Carolina project now dead, and the Georgia project looking shaky, Moorside is looking very much like the Norwegian Blue.

[Mr GrimNasty]

Paddy wants us to be like Australia, the poor and most disadvantage making snake oil windmill sellers rich on subsidy.

http://joannenova.com.au/2017/07/australians-payin...

Oh no - we all ready are - funny how UK electricity prices have gone up massively as wholesale prices and fossil fuel prices have dropped.

[babatunde]

Mr GrimNasty said:

Paddy wants us to be like Australia, the poor and most disadvantage making snake oil windmill sellers rich on subsidy.

http://joannenova.com.au/2017/07/australians-payin...

Oh no - we all ready are - funny how UK electricity prices have gone up massively as wholesale prices and fossil fuel prices have dropped.

I would have thought as mains prices go up and prices of alternate sources like solar go down, there is an incentive for more people to go partly/fully off grid.

Large Utilities like all companies that have virtual monopolies will always price gorge consumers, Australia already limits the amount of residential generated energy that households can upload to the grid, Also if you read that article and comments fully, you will see links claiming that the rise in prices is linked to lack of competition. [edit]

I expect that if storage continues its falling trajectory 10 years from now a larger percentage of Aussies will be off grid than on it, they have loads of sun all year round so Solar is an ideal solution for them.

Edited by babatunde on Tuesday 1st August 06:53

Edited by babatunde on Tuesday 1st August 06:58

[anonymous-user]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

also from across the pond :
http://renews.biz/107980/us-wind-build-up-40/

Almost 26GW of new wind projects in the US were under construction or in advanced development at the end of June, a 40% increase on last year, according to the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA).

And they will generate what on average? And what backup will they need for when there isn't wind?

They are a pointless costly white elephant that damages energy security and increases costs

[LongQ]

Something of a parallel subject really but, assuming these are battery driven, the potential demand for more energy may be represented here.

Driverless buses in Estonia.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-news-from-elsewher...

[Ali G]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

I would answer if I thought you were even remotely interested.


But I guess that with that tone, you're not.

And if you were able to provide a credible answer, I would listen.

[anonymous-user]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

Ali G said:

And if you were able to provide a credible answer, I would listen.

Again ? ?
Try reading again.

And your credible answer is what?

Plated capacity is always reached, no backup is needed, running backup conventional at lower than optimal level is good...or just some prepacked greeny industry BS? Or sorry they seem to be the same thing....

[Mr GrimNasty]

As I said before, the true cost of wind (& solar but that is a small issue) is VASTLY UNDER COUNTED.

There are lots of consequential costs and impacts that should be added on.

Instead we have the deliberately unbalanced/fraudulent accounting concepts such as social cost of carbon and levilised costs that were invented merely to justify inferior and uneconomic technology.

Underestimating cost of wind etc.:-

http://www.theenergycollective.com/gail-tverberg/2...

Properly evaluating intermittent renewables:-

https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2017/07...

And an example of a typical cold winter's day power generation:- Solar and wind make negligible to zero contribution, when the energy is most needed.

[Ali G]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

Ali G said:

And if you were able to provide a credible answer, I would listen.

Again ? ?
Try reading again.

So the intermittancy of wind power has been solved?

Point me to the Nobel prize winner...

[anonymous-user]

Ali G said:

So the intermittancy of wind power has been solved?

Point me to the Nobel prize winner...

They're useless when you need them and fantastic when you don't - so add a dollop of subsidy and a froth of political grandstanding and they're the best thing since sliced spanish solar

[Ali G]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

wsurfa said:

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

Ali G said:

And if you were able to provide a credible answer, I would listen.

Again ? ?
Try reading again.

And your credible answer is what?

Plated capacity is always reached, no backup is needed, running backup conventional at lower than optimal level is good...or just some prepacked greeny industry BS? Or sorry they seem to be the same thing....

Thank you for proving the point swiftly in your first five words.


You haven't read a thing - QED

A very, very fine purvayor of snake-oil Sir.

If you want serious wind energy, then the Jet Stream is where you need to be.

Unfortunately, it wobbles a bit in direction (chaotically), and has profound effects on climate systems.

Probably better not to be messed with!

[anonymous-user]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

Thank you for proving the point swiftly in your first five words.


You haven't read a thing - QED

Read all the bluff and bluster, which is 90% of your output, similar to the product you shill for.

[anonymous-user]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

Cute retreat


ETA : two for the price of one

Edited by Paddy_N_Murphy on Wednesday 2nd August 23:35

Riighttt,of course, bluff & bluster, again. Keep it up, really bolsters your cause, truly does

[anonymous-user]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

What makes you think you know far more than the industrialist, infrastructure engineers, economists, financiers, academics that actually have invested real time and energy in the Future Power Generation of Great Britain- versus what is, at best (almost) jovial mud slinging and one liners that carry simply sentiment?

I can tolerate a lack of education in a subject, but a lack of respect of others - more learned - is a bizarre stance to take.
Often traits of the dense bully incapable of comprehending evolution (applicable to nature or humans I add)

More of the same, you don't disappoint I must say, a sort of inverse nullius in verba approach. Hardly novel in your 'field'

[Ali G]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

What makes you think you know far more than the industrialist, infrastructure engineers, economists, financiers, academics that actually have invested real time and energy in the Future Power Generation of Great Britain- versus what is, at best (almost) jovial mud slinging and one liners that carry simply sentiment?

I can tolerate a lack of education in a subject, but a lack of respect of others - more learned - is a bizarre stance to take.
Often traits of the dense bully incapable of comprehending evolution (applicable to nature or humans I add)

Strategy based upon sound science and solutions "for when the wind does not blow" provided in the public domain would be a start to alleviate public concern as to the usage of public monies.

I have yet to have any sound information that "intermittency" has any solution and as a corollary that claimed plate energy capacities are in actual fact fraudulent.

[Ali G]

You continue to report xGw of windpower has been added, without providing any caveats (i.e "when the wind blows within limits between X and y which are expected in z days per year") with a clear implication that comparisons can be made with conventional sources of energy available 24/365.

This is fraudulent.

[V8 Fettler]

What is the minimum utilisation ratio for offshore to date? This can be used as an indicator of the capacity of the required back-up systems.