The Future of Power Generation in Great Britain
Discussion
Condi said:
Gary C said:
Good summary
But its worth pointing out that the £45 price is as valued in 2012 so the actual price in 2021 is quite a bit higher.
The £45 was round 3 CFD from memory which was 2019 (?), but you're right they are inflation linked. The round 1 CFD which was about £195-200 was as priced in 2012 and so is now comfortably above £220/240. They'll look expensive by the end of theur subsidy payments, but at that point all the infrastructure is paid for and you can keep generating cheap/free wind power with the capital all paid off. 95% of income will be profit. But its worth pointing out that the £45 price is as valued in 2012 so the actual price in 2021 is quite a bit higher.
An interesting discussion with Worcester bosch about hydrogen boilers for the home.
https://youtu.be/4uNKPDREa-Q
PRTVR said:
Thats great for the wind farm owners but what a bout the customers, we end up paying twice as when they are not working we need something to fill the gap, the replacement also has to be profitable else it will go out of business.
The argument is, that without the initial high CFD's, wind would not have been developed. Now it is, prices in real terms have fallen very significantly.You can argue about the need for low/zero CO2, but wind has performed better than I ever thought it would. The grid has a challenge every day to manage flows, but where we are right now is quite stable. Some good baseload from the Nukes, flexible gas and wind/solar.
If CO2 is as bad as its postulated, then options are limited. Yes, standby needs to be paid for though some will be via interconnectors. Its that or build a full fleet of large and small flexible nukes, and that would probably cost even more
PRTVR said:
Thats great for the wind farm owners but what a bout the customers, we end up paying twice as when they are not working we need something to fill the gap, the replacement also has to be profitable else it will go out of business.
An interesting discussion with Worcester bosch about hydrogen boilers for the home.
https://youtu.be/4uNKPDREa-Q
Plenty of peaker and OCGT plants around the country, someone is making good money off it.An interesting discussion with Worcester bosch about hydrogen boilers for the home.
https://youtu.be/4uNKPDREa-Q
PRTVR said:
An interesting discussion with Worcester bosch about hydrogen boilers for the home.
https://youtu.be/4uNKPDREa-Q
Oof - ashp trial, totally free for people taking the trial - had thousands of applicants - once the houses had been surveyed and the changes required to use ashp - that dropped to 13 people who actually went ahead with it.https://youtu.be/4uNKPDREa-Q
It passed without comment, but Drax units 5+6 came off the bars the other night and ceased commercial generation. They are still technically available for a bit longer, and got a nice £4000/MWh instruction yesterday (worth about £5.5m), but they'll be few and far between, if they do even get another.
The plan to turn them into a 3.6GW gas unit never really got off the ground - and was never going to with the economics of it, it didn't make sense when they announced it and doesn't make any more sense now. I'm not sure if they are going to convert it to biomass, haven't seen anything.
Only 2 coal stations left now, Ratcliffe and West Burton.
And for those who are wondering why we (traders) prefer gas stations to coal, this was Drax's dispatch the other day. The green line is what they were able to do, the purple line was what the commercial desk wanted them to do. The unit underperformed all morning, tripped off at half 2 or thereabouts in the afternoon, and only managed to generate what it should have been capable of at 7pm and after all the expensive prices had gone. As if that wasn't quite enough, it tripped off again before it should have and then came back for one final half hour to complete the ramp down.
The plan to turn them into a 3.6GW gas unit never really got off the ground - and was never going to with the economics of it, it didn't make sense when they announced it and doesn't make any more sense now. I'm not sure if they are going to convert it to biomass, haven't seen anything.
Only 2 coal stations left now, Ratcliffe and West Burton.
And for those who are wondering why we (traders) prefer gas stations to coal, this was Drax's dispatch the other day. The green line is what they were able to do, the purple line was what the commercial desk wanted them to do. The unit underperformed all morning, tripped off at half 2 or thereabouts in the afternoon, and only managed to generate what it should have been capable of at 7pm and after all the expensive prices had gone. As if that wasn't quite enough, it tripped off again before it should have and then came back for one final half hour to complete the ramp down.
Condi said:
It passed without comment, but Drax units 5+6 came off the bars the other night and ceased commercial generation. They are still technically available for a bit longer, and got a nice £4000/MWh instruction yesterday (worth about £5.5m), but they'll be few and far between, if they do even get another.
The plan to turn them into a 3.6GW gas unit never really got off the ground - and was never going to with the economics of it, it didn't make sense when they announced it and doesn't make any more sense now. I'm not sure if they are going to convert it to biomass, haven't seen anything.
Only 2 coal stations left now, Ratcliffe and West Burton.
And for those who are wondering why we (traders) prefer gas stations to coal, this was Drax's dispatch the other day. The green line is what they were able to do, the purple line was what the commercial desk wanted them to do. The unit underperformed all morning, tripped off at half 2 or thereabouts in the afternoon, and only managed to generate what it should have been capable of at 7pm and after all the expensive prices had gone. As if that wasn't quite enough, it tripped off again before it should have and then came back for one final half hour to complete the ramp down.
The woodchucks not chucking wood fast enough? The plan to turn them into a 3.6GW gas unit never really got off the ground - and was never going to with the economics of it, it didn't make sense when they announced it and doesn't make any more sense now. I'm not sure if they are going to convert it to biomass, haven't seen anything.
Only 2 coal stations left now, Ratcliffe and West Burton.
And for those who are wondering why we (traders) prefer gas stations to coal, this was Drax's dispatch the other day. The green line is what they were able to do, the purple line was what the commercial desk wanted them to do. The unit underperformed all morning, tripped off at half 2 or thereabouts in the afternoon, and only managed to generate what it should have been capable of at 7pm and after all the expensive prices had gone. As if that wasn't quite enough, it tripped off again before it should have and then came back for one final half hour to complete the ramp down.
Those Drax coal units were not scheduled to close until 2025, iirc.
As Condi says, that leaves 2 which are due to shut in September of this year for one and September 2022 for t'other. That's a lot of dispatchable capacity gone and going, to which can be added the imminent nuclear closures.
We have just had 7 days or so in the doldrums with wind output down at 1 or 2 GW. It looks as if we are going to be living in "interesting times" in a few years.
As Condi says, that leaves 2 which are due to shut in September of this year for one and September 2022 for t'other. That's a lot of dispatchable capacity gone and going, to which can be added the imminent nuclear closures.
We have just had 7 days or so in the doldrums with wind output down at 1 or 2 GW. It looks as if we are going to be living in "interesting times" in a few years.
Mikehig said:
Those Drax coal units were not scheduled to close until 2025, iirc.
As Condi says, that leaves 2 which are due to shut in September of this year for one and September 2022 for t'other. That's a lot of dispatchable capacity gone and going, to which can be added the imminent nuclear closures.
We have just had 7 days or so in the doldrums with wind output down at 1 or 2 GW. It looks as if we are going to be living in "interesting times" in a few years.
What better way to drum up support for small modular reactors than to explain the case for them during powercuts?As Condi says, that leaves 2 which are due to shut in September of this year for one and September 2022 for t'other. That's a lot of dispatchable capacity gone and going, to which can be added the imminent nuclear closures.
We have just had 7 days or so in the doldrums with wind output down at 1 or 2 GW. It looks as if we are going to be living in "interesting times" in a few years.
Condi said:
CraigyMc said:
What better way to drum up support for small modular reactors than to explain the case for them during powercuts?
Not exactly available from Amazon for next day delivery though. Delivering on promises comes much later, if ever, and isn't usually the salesperson's responsibility, even when badly mis-sold.
CraigyMc said:
I don't work in sales, but part of the playbook is usually generating a sense of urgency.
Delivering on promises comes much later, if ever, and isn't usually the salesperson's responsibility, even when badly mis-sold.
That's what project managers are for! Delivering on promises comes much later, if ever, and isn't usually the salesperson's responsibility, even when badly mis-sold.
It's often like a Laurel & Hardy film: another fine mess you've got me into....
OL3 NPP has reached a major milestone, after a catastrophically bad construction schedule, and a quick vid tour has been released.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dv4sFiA--TU
However, the achievement of this milestone provides considerable confidence in the design (although there are some differences between OL3 and the UK-EPR design).
So, far no serious issues with the HPC construction, other than some slight delays related to the need to reduce staffing to achieve social distancing, and the council not at all happy with plans to catch up later in the year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dv4sFiA--TU
However, the achievement of this milestone provides considerable confidence in the design (although there are some differences between OL3 and the UK-EPR design).
So, far no serious issues with the HPC construction, other than some slight delays related to the need to reduce staffing to achieve social distancing, and the council not at all happy with plans to catch up later in the year.
Lowest carbon day on the grid.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56657299
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56657299
BBC said:
The National Grid Electricity System Operator (ESO) said levels of carbon pollution for each unit of electricity consumed dropped to just 39 grams of carbon dioxide - the lowest ever recorded for the grid - at 13:00 BST on Monday.
It said wind power made up 39% of the energy mix, with solar at 21% and nuclear accounting for 16%.
It said wind power made up 39% of the energy mix, with solar at 21% and nuclear accounting for 16%.
Evanivitch said:
Lowest carbon day on the grid.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56657299
Ah, so wind energy produces energy when it's er, windy. But not on windless January evenings. That's useful to know, I'm off to look for my candles.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56657299
BBC said:
The National Grid Electricity System Operator (ESO) said levels of carbon pollution for each unit of electricity consumed dropped to just 39 grams of carbon dioxide - the lowest ever recorded for the grid - at 13:00 BST on Monday.
It said wind power made up 39% of the energy mix, with solar at 21% and nuclear accounting for 16%.
It said wind power made up 39% of the energy mix, with solar at 21% and nuclear accounting for 16%.
Evanivitch said:
robinessex said:
Ah, so wind energy produces energy when it's er, windy. But not on windless January evenings. That's useful to know, I'm off to look for my candles.
It's the installed capacity that is significant. At the end of the day, that's less imported gas burned.1: Wind and solar are typically counter cyclic
2: As the geographic spread increases the times when you get very low outputs are limited
3: If you actually look at how much power the whole UK "needs" it is pretty low. Compare how much electricity your lights use (probably less than 50W normally) vs how much oven or tumble dryer uses. There is potential to cut base load substantially by paying people not to use electricity.
Thus you maybe need a dependable 5-10GW which is provide by some gas or diesel plants which practically never operate.
However the key argument is that potentially there isn't a near term floor on the cost reductions possible with renewables. As costs keep falling you keep building to keep meet the base-load but the net effect is that power is very cheap when there is an excess.
This excess then drives the creation of new markets for power that don't need dependability e.g.
- Production of energy intensive materials like aluminium and titanium (whichever achieves direct electrolysis first)
- 3D printing
- Desalination
- eVTOLs
- Any battery powered device or vehicle
- Bitcoin mining
- Scrubbing CO2 from the atmosphere
- Generating hydrogen for hypersonic jets and rockets
People always talk about smelting as a sink for excess energy but who is going to stump up the millions for a new plant just to sit idle until the excess energy conditions allow it to pull cheap or negative value energy from the grid. I can just imagine the managers:-
“Winds up boys. Come back to work the smelter is going!’
Or do they run it off the grid normally and just pay less when the elecy is cheap? But then they’re still on the grid adding to the required base load.
A third option would be to run their own massive generators and switch over to the cheap stuff when it happens to be available but then again you’re buying in a lot of expensive equipment that might not get used. And their generators won’t be as efficient as the massive base load ones.
I’d genuinely like to know if someone has done it and how it works out.
“Winds up boys. Come back to work the smelter is going!’
Or do they run it off the grid normally and just pay less when the elecy is cheap? But then they’re still on the grid adding to the required base load.
A third option would be to run their own massive generators and switch over to the cheap stuff when it happens to be available but then again you’re buying in a lot of expensive equipment that might not get used. And their generators won’t be as efficient as the massive base load ones.
I’d genuinely like to know if someone has done it and how it works out.
Smelters were traditionally located near hydro-electric plants because the energy was cheap and reliable. Norway for example.
The one in Scotland near Fort-William has a pumped storage unit and is regularly paid by Grid to pump water up hill during times of high wind and then they can release it when power is more expensive. Only a fairly small unit from memory about 50MW, maybe even less than that, but even with somewhat free electric it doesn't seem to be profitable. Although as part of Sanjeev Gupta's empire trying to work out if it makes money at all is difficult if not impossible. Lets put it like this, they are not expanding into the largest smelter in Europe despite the free electric!
But yes, the idea of a smelter being sat there and only working on days of high wind generation completely misses the point. What business can afford to pay its staff full time, buy all the machinery, fulfil orders etc, when it only works on windy nights, which may happen 5 times in one week and not at all the next!
The one in Scotland near Fort-William has a pumped storage unit and is regularly paid by Grid to pump water up hill during times of high wind and then they can release it when power is more expensive. Only a fairly small unit from memory about 50MW, maybe even less than that, but even with somewhat free electric it doesn't seem to be profitable. Although as part of Sanjeev Gupta's empire trying to work out if it makes money at all is difficult if not impossible. Lets put it like this, they are not expanding into the largest smelter in Europe despite the free electric!
But yes, the idea of a smelter being sat there and only working on days of high wind generation completely misses the point. What business can afford to pay its staff full time, buy all the machinery, fulfil orders etc, when it only works on windy nights, which may happen 5 times in one week and not at all the next!
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