And...It's Spain.. will it kick off ?
Discussion
Ridgemont said:
Yipper said:
John145 said:
When I was in Catalonia last week there were far more Catalonian flags along the motorways than I saw even just 3 months prior.
Curiously however a large number of these flags were twinned with EU flags.
Unsure what the separatists are hoping to achieve. A bit like the SNP flirting with the EU as they have no feasible position but the Catalan people are fully capable of self sustainment.
Yeah, I was in Madrid the past couple days and several locals mentioned the rise in Catalonia flags. They say a very-vocal 1 million separatists are spoiling it for the other 5-10 million locals who are happy for the status quo to continue. The Spanish are very worried.Curiously however a large number of these flags were twinned with EU flags.
Unsure what the separatists are hoping to achieve. A bit like the SNP flirting with the EU as they have no feasible position but the Catalan people are fully capable of self sustainment.
The opinion polls look far too similar to Scotref: latest http://www.politico.eu/article/catalonia-independe...
41% for indy vs 48% against. Interestingly the Don't knows have been broadly consistent for the 3 years. In the case of Scotref, the don't knows broke broadly for independence. No wonder the Spanish are concerned.
Right now, today, some 70% of all bets are going on Yes for Catalonia. The Yes camp is 1/10 odds-on to win.
Of course, the Spanish will ignore it. But there is a shock coming here.
Yipper said:
The Spanish are very worried.
Yes, they don't really get the notion of self-determination. And it must be profoundly embarrassing for an allegedly democratic modern state how many Spaniards still hanker after Franco. I don't blame the Catalan separatists. Within living memory, the Catalans (and the Basques) were savagely oppressed by Franco and his mob. There has been no real reckoning for those crimes since Franco died either and a very determined effort to brush the past under the carpet.
On a basic economic level, the Spanish generally are right to be worried: if the Basques were to b*gger off as well, there'd be barely any profitable productive capacity left in the rest of Spain except tourism and agriculture.
I'm in Barcelona this week and noticed something was up when I wandered out for breakfast this morning due to the huge police presence on the streets with sections of roads blocked off and police vans, horses and cars around many of the main squares.
Everything was very very low key tho and I didn't see or hear any big demonstration whatever .... until 10pm ... when there must have been a pre-planned protest since loads of folk opened their windows and started banging pots & pans together for about 15 mins... then all back to normality again.
Everything was very very low key tho and I didn't see or hear any big demonstration whatever .... until 10pm ... when there must have been a pre-planned protest since loads of folk opened their windows and started banging pots & pans together for about 15 mins... then all back to normality again.
discusdave said:
Rajoy is free to oppose Catalan independence, but through persuasion alone, not violence. The use of force to halt a vote is oppression.
I really don't know how I feel about this situation.Transpose it to the UK, and imagine the Scottish Parliament or Welsh Assembly saying "We're going to have a referendum on independence", the UK government saying "Umm, no." - and them going ahead and doing it anyway.
You just know what'll happen, whatever the result.
The vote says "no", there's accusations of suppression and influencing the free and fair vote, etc.
The vote says "yes", and the government ignore it...
It should never have got this far. It's a failure on both sides, but the Catalans are definitely pushing as hard as they can - too hard? - and something may well give sooner or later.
It' s not just Catalonia either - there's a real chance of Spain flying apart at the seams if they do manage to break away, as several regions (not least the Basque country) would dearly love to not be Spanish.
Speaking with Spanish people at work and their friends the feeling on the ground has always been overwhelmingly in favour of a vote even if the result would probably have been a no. Now though, with all of this heavy-handed action from Madrid (and with the clear view that it will get more heavy-handed in the days leading up to the vote) I really do think there's a good chance there will be a yes vote if they do manage to get a vote. I'd be surprised if the army wasn't on the streets on the 1st.
Speaking with Spanish people at work and their friends the feeling on the ground has always been overwhelmingly in favour of a vote even if the result would probably have been a no. Now though, with all of this heavy-handed action from Madrid (and with the clear view that it will get more heavy-handed in the days leading up to the vote) I really do think there's a good chance there will be a yes vote if they do manage to get a vote. I'd be surprised if the army wasn't on the streets on the 1st.
discusdave said:
The use of force to halt a vote is oppression criminality and criminal conspiracy is a good idea and one of the reasons democracies have police.
If Sturgeon started spending money on organising Indyref2 without permission from Westminster I'd expect Inspector Knacker to take a close interest.TooMany2cvs said:
discusdave said:
Rajoy is free to oppose Catalan independence, but through persuasion alone, not violence. The use of force to halt a vote is oppression.
I really don't know how I feel about this situation.Transpose it to the UK, and imagine the Scottish Parliament or Welsh Assembly saying "We're going to have a referendum on independence", the UK government saying "Umm, no." - and them going ahead and doing it anyway.
You just know what'll happen, whatever the result.
The vote says "no", there's accusations of suppression and influencing the free and fair vote, etc.
The vote says "yes", and the government ignore it...
It should never have got this far. It's a failure on both sides, but the Catalans are definitely pushing as hard as they can - too hard? - and something may well give sooner or later.
let them vote..what will be will be.
Edited by discusdave on Thursday 21st September 21:54
Kermit power said:
discusdave said:
so why not let them vote?.. like Scotland ,Wales and co they need Spain..
let them vote..what will be will be.
I'd say it's diametrically opposed!let them vote..what will be will be.
Scotland need the rest of the UK, whereas the rest of Spain needs Catalonia.
so like if london were to secede from the rest of the uk.
i'd love to see that too, think of all the politicians they'd get to keep
Edited by SystemParanoia on Friday 22 September 07:48
Kermit power said:
discusdave said:
so why not let them vote?.. like Scotland ,Wales and co they need Spain..
let them vote..what will be will be.
I'd say it's diametrically opposed!let them vote..what will be will be.
Scotland need the rest of the UK, whereas the rest of Spain needs Catalonia.
I can't imagine Thatcher agreeing to indyref, strangely enough.
Either way, something is going wrong when part of your country wants to leave (could say the same about Scotland, too. 45/55 is hardly a ringing endorsement).
Trouble is, how do you keep Catalonia? Give them a bigger share of their own money and you bolster the case for their self determination, take more away and you do the same.
The only thing I can think of it to give them more MP's in the national parliment. More taxation=more representation.
glazbagun said:
I don't think there's an analogy in the UK. Maybe if IndyRef was held during the Thatcher years when the oil was fresh and a much bigger deal.
I can't imagine Thatcher agreeing to indyref, strangely enough.
Either way, something is going wrong when part of your country wants to leave (could say the same about Scotland, too. 45/55 is hardly a ringing endorsement).
Trouble is, how do you keep Catalonia? Give them a bigger share of their own money and you bolster the case for their self determination, take more away and you do the same.
The only thing I can think of it to give them more MP's in the national parliment. More taxation=more representation.
I'm not sure that would work either, unfortunately. There was a period in the 90s or early 00s when CiU, the Catalan Nationalist party held the balance of power in the Spanish parliament, so were massively over-represented in the cabinet and were showered with goodies. It still didn't stop us getting to where we are now.I can't imagine Thatcher agreeing to indyref, strangely enough.
Either way, something is going wrong when part of your country wants to leave (could say the same about Scotland, too. 45/55 is hardly a ringing endorsement).
Trouble is, how do you keep Catalonia? Give them a bigger share of their own money and you bolster the case for their self determination, take more away and you do the same.
The only thing I can think of it to give them more MP's in the national parliment. More taxation=more representation.
Most of this is down to one of the other really big differences between here and Spain...
We have the whinging Scots who like to bang on about how nasty Edward Longshanks was to them 700 years ago, and revel in picking that particular scab of inferiority with their national song about how they almost won something a few hundred years ago, whilst wondering if they'll ever be good enough to almost win something again.
In Spain, on the other hand, the brutal repression of regional identities by Franco's regime is very much still a living memory. I used to know a Galician guy whose earliest memory was of his father being clubbed unconscious with rifle butts by the Guardia Civil whilst he was standing next to him because he refused to speak Castilian Spanish instead of Gallego. My colleague's father wasn't being deliberately obstinant or trying to become a Nationalist hero for Galicia. He just didn't actually speak Castilian Spanish.
It's really rather ironic, but Franco's efforts to forge a Spanish national identity have done more to bolster independent regional identies than any other actions imaginable! Before he started, the regional languages in Spain were in a slow decline. Now, every school in Catalonia teaches in Catalan, with Castilian a second language, and (assuming it's still the same as when I lived there in the 90s), place name signs at the entrance to towns in Castilian will almost invariably have it spray-painted out and replaced with the local dialect name if it's different.
Compare that to France which also, until relatively recently, had a lot of regional languages. They never tried to tell people they couldn't speak their languages, they simply said that if people wanted their children educated by the State, it would be in French, and if they wanted to work for the State, they would have to speak French. Roll forward a few generations, and only Breton is really hanging on at all. I found out much of this after seeing a sound and light spectacle in Carcassone in the language of Occitan, which I'd never heard of, but could broadly understand as a result of speaking French & Spanish. One of my parents' friends, who is in his late 60s now told me that he could understand it but didn't really speak it, his children didn't understand it at all, his parents spoke it fluently, and his grandparents didn't really speak French!
You simply cannot look at the Catalan independence movement without also looking at the Franco era.
The irony is that, had the post-Franco administration at a minimum had the courage to go in for something like a Truth and Reconciliation Commission, this might not have happened, but a resolute refusal even to acknowledge the crimes of the old regime (and its fellow travellers in the Church) has entrenched the mistrust of Madrid in many of the old non-Castilian regions. As it is, for most Catalans I know, the resentment and mistrust festers.
Kermit power said:
I'm not sure that would work either, unfortunately. There was a period in the 90s or early 00s when CiU, the Catalan Nationalist party held the balance of power in the Spanish parliament, so were massively over-represented in the cabinet and were showered with goodies. It still didn't stop us getting to where we are now.
Most of this is down to one of the other really big differences between here and Spain...
We have the whinging Scots who like to bang on about how nasty Edward Longshanks was to them 700 years ago, and revel in picking that particular scab of inferiority with their national song about how they almost won something a few hundred years ago, whilst wondering if they'll ever be good enough to almost win something again.
In Spain, on the other hand, the brutal repression of regional identities by Franco's regime is very much still a living memory. I used to know a Galician guy whose earliest memory was of his father being clubbed unconscious with rifle butts by the Guardia Civil whilst he was standing next to him because he refused to speak Castilian Spanish instead of Gallego. My colleague's father wasn't being deliberately obstinant or trying to become a Nationalist hero for Galicia. He just didn't actually speak Castilian Spanish.
It's really rather ironic, but Franco's efforts to forge a Spanish national identity have done more to bolster independent regional identies than any other actions imaginable! Before he started, the regional languages in Spain were in a slow decline. Now, every school in Catalonia teaches in Catalan, with Castilian a second language, and (assuming it's still the same as when I lived there in the 90s), place name signs at the entrance to towns in Castilian will almost invariably have it spray-painted out and replaced with the local dialect name if it's different.
Compare that to France which also, until relatively recently, had a lot of regional languages. They never tried to tell people they couldn't speak their languages, they simply said that if people wanted their children educated by the State, it would be in French, and if they wanted to work for the State, they would have to speak French. Roll forward a few generations, and only Breton is really hanging on at all. I found out much of this after seeing a sound and light spectacle in Carcassone in the language of Occitan, which I'd never heard of, but could broadly understand as a result of speaking French & Spanish. One of my parents' friends, who is in his late 60s now told me that he could understand it but didn't really speak it, his children didn't understand it at all, his parents spoke it fluently, and his grandparents didn't really speak French!
You simply cannot look at the Catalan independence movement without also looking at the Franco era.
Great post, thanks.Most of this is down to one of the other really big differences between here and Spain...
We have the whinging Scots who like to bang on about how nasty Edward Longshanks was to them 700 years ago, and revel in picking that particular scab of inferiority with their national song about how they almost won something a few hundred years ago, whilst wondering if they'll ever be good enough to almost win something again.
In Spain, on the other hand, the brutal repression of regional identities by Franco's regime is very much still a living memory. I used to know a Galician guy whose earliest memory was of his father being clubbed unconscious with rifle butts by the Guardia Civil whilst he was standing next to him because he refused to speak Castilian Spanish instead of Gallego. My colleague's father wasn't being deliberately obstinant or trying to become a Nationalist hero for Galicia. He just didn't actually speak Castilian Spanish.
It's really rather ironic, but Franco's efforts to forge a Spanish national identity have done more to bolster independent regional identies than any other actions imaginable! Before he started, the regional languages in Spain were in a slow decline. Now, every school in Catalonia teaches in Catalan, with Castilian a second language, and (assuming it's still the same as when I lived there in the 90s), place name signs at the entrance to towns in Castilian will almost invariably have it spray-painted out and replaced with the local dialect name if it's different.
Compare that to France which also, until relatively recently, had a lot of regional languages. They never tried to tell people they couldn't speak their languages, they simply said that if people wanted their children educated by the State, it would be in French, and if they wanted to work for the State, they would have to speak French. Roll forward a few generations, and only Breton is really hanging on at all. I found out much of this after seeing a sound and light spectacle in Carcassone in the language of Occitan, which I'd never heard of, but could broadly understand as a result of speaking French & Spanish. One of my parents' friends, who is in his late 60s now told me that he could understand it but didn't really speak it, his children didn't understand it at all, his parents spoke it fluently, and his grandparents didn't really speak French!
You simply cannot look at the Catalan independence movement without also looking at the Franco era.
Damn that's a lot of people. If Spain stays the course, he might have a lot more angry Catalonians than the separatists originally had. They should do what France did as someone said in an earlier post. If they want to educate their children or work, that will be in Spanish and they can have their freedom in regional matters. Oppression never gave birth to a peaceful solution and never will. I am sad to see people fight all the time. 
Of course, there's the perennial issue of Basque separatism too. This is surely going to encourage a renewed campaign for their separation too.
As I've said on the EU and Brexit threads, it always struck me a perverse that nations that had only, actually been nations (let alone democracies) for such relatively short spells have the nerve to criticise the UK or Brexit. Here is a perfect example.
As I've said on the EU and Brexit threads, it always struck me a perverse that nations that had only, actually been nations (let alone democracies) for such relatively short spells have the nerve to criticise the UK or Brexit. Here is a perfect example.
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