Hurricane Ophelia.....

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TTmonkey

Original Poster:

20,911 posts

247 months

Saturday 14th October 2017
quotequote all
Currently forecast to miss the mainland U.K., and to weaken, but just a little change of track to the south and things could get very interesting on Monday/Tuesday.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml...

Where's Michael Fish when you need him? Funny how this is 30 years exactly since 'the great storm''.

With most of the leaves still on the trees even a strong storm could cause major Problems. Fallen trees and blocked drains from the leaves causing flooding.


citizensm1th

8,371 posts

137 months

Saturday 14th October 2017
quotequote all
TTmonkey said:
Currently forecast to miss the mainland U.K., and to weaken, but just a little change of track to the south and things could get very interesting on Monday/Tuesday.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml...

Where's Michael Fish when you need him? Funny how this is 30 years exactly since 'the great storm''.

With most of the leaves still on the trees even a strong storm could cause major Problems. Fallen trees and blocked drains from the leaves causing flooding.
I was listening to a fella on the gardening program on radio 4 yesterday and he was saying that we have a much more varied tree coverage age wise these days thanks to the great storm

he was postulating that this would make any repeat less damaging as we do not have large stands of similar aged trees acting as giant wind breaks

still i love a good storm so next week should be fun

garagewidow

1,502 posts

170 months

Saturday 14th October 2017
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I wouldn't worry too much,it'll all blow overtumbleweed

TTmonkey

Original Poster:

20,911 posts

247 months

Saturday 14th October 2017
quotequote all
citizensm1th said:
I was listening to a fella on the gardening program on radio 4 yesterday and he was saying that we have a much more varied tree coverage age wise these days thanks to the great storm

he was postulating that this would make any repeat less damaging as we do not have large stands of similar aged trees acting as giant wind breaks

still i love a good storm so next week should be fun
I was at RAF Northolt when the last storm hit. The place, unusual for an RAF station, had about 100 major trees on site. They all came down. A massive oak fell between two single man barrack blocks, right outside my room. My windows were left open that night as it was so humid and warm, and when I woke up my room was full of leaves. I slept right through the storm and didn't know what happened, as I was pissed up that evening due to a beer call. I thought my mates had trashed my room!

When I looked out the window and saw that oak tree smashed outside, my first thought was "what the fek did I do last night"!

Can't believe I missed that night due to beer....

citizensm1th

8,371 posts

137 months

Saturday 14th October 2017
quotequote all
TTmonkey said:
citizensm1th said:
I was listening to a fella on the gardening program on radio 4 yesterday and he was saying that we have a much more varied tree coverage age wise these days thanks to the great storm

he was postulating that this would make any repeat less damaging as we do not have large stands of similar aged trees acting as giant wind breaks

still i love a good storm so next week should be fun
I was at RAF Northolt when the last storm hit. The place, unusual for an RAF station, had about 100 major trees on site. They all came down. A massive oak fell between two single man barrack blocks, right outside my room. My windows were left open that night as it was so humid and warm, and when I woke up my room was full of leaves. I slept right through the storm and didn't know what happened, as I was pissed up that evening due to a beer call. I thought my mates had trashed my room!

When I looked out the window and saw that oak tree smashed outside, my first thought was "what the fek did I do last night"!

Can't believe I missed that night due to beer....
i was going out with a girl who prior to the storm lived in seven oaks

Smollet

10,568 posts

190 months

Saturday 14th October 2017
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It might be a hurricane now but by the time it gets here it won't be.

Alpacaman

920 posts

241 months

Saturday 14th October 2017
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Crap, the black line on that map goes about 20 miles from my house, better put the kite away.

Gandahar

9,600 posts

128 months

Saturday 14th October 2017
quotequote all
I first held hands with my wife in the great storm all those years back as students. We were both drunk as well. I remember saying "It's a bit windy" as we lay on the sofa together.

If it runs more East we will be be in trouble, at the moment the Irish will be getting it

Good site to watch it approach

https://weather.us/satellite/204-w-396-n/top-alert...


and nice pic




It reminds me of a comet ! biggrin


TTmonkey

Original Poster:

20,911 posts

247 months

Saturday 14th October 2017
quotequote all
Great picture.

What must be remembered is that these forecasts are just best guess work. IRMA showed how unpredictable these things can be, she jinked all over the place and most forecasts was for Bahamas and eastern seaboard, which turned out wrong. And that's tracking hurricanes that go through ththe Caribbean all the time. How many come east in the Atlantic? Not many.

Lotus Notes

1,200 posts

191 months

Saturday 14th October 2017
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Gandahar

9,600 posts

128 months

Saturday 14th October 2017
quotequote all
Lotus Notes said:
This is a good site for seeing current wave heights.

http://www.oceanweather.com/data/

not that great yet but should increase as gets offshore Ireland




Gandahar

9,600 posts

128 months

Saturday 14th October 2017
quotequote all
TTmonkey said:
Great picture.

What must be remembered is that these forecasts are just best guess work. IRMA showed how unpredictable these things can be, she jinked all over the place and most forecasts was for Bahamas and eastern seaboard, which turned out wrong. And that's tracking hurricanes that go through ththe Caribbean all the time. How many come east in the Atlantic? Not many.
Good point, was thinking the same myself, this is the strongest storm this far east in the Atlantic, so models will be learning as they go along to some extent I think.

TTmonkey

Original Poster:

20,911 posts

247 months

Sunday 15th October 2017
quotequote all
Gandahar said:
TTmonkey said:
Great picture.

What must be remembered is that these forecasts are just best guess work. IRMA showed how unpredictable these things can be, she jinked all over the place and most forecasts was for Bahamas and eastern seaboard, which turned out wrong. And that's tracking hurricanes that go through ththe Caribbean all the time. How many come east in the Atlantic? Not many.
Good point, was thinking the same myself, this is the strongest storm this far east in the Atlantic, so models will be learning as they go along to some extent I think.
Forecasters are very confident that it will miss the UK and downgrade to a storm rather than hurricane before hitting the west coast of Ireland. I'm surprised that more contingency planning isn't happening for a 'what if' scenario. What if it doesn't stay on that track and instead slips up the east coast of Ireland? What if it doesn't lose its hurricane strength?

Michael Fish moment is possible. Unlikely by the look of it, but possible.

I wouldn't was to be in Cornwall on Monday if it does make a sudden swing to the right.

voyds9

8,488 posts

283 months

Sunday 15th October 2017
quotequote all
citizensm1th said:
i was going out with a girl who prior to the storm lived in seven oaks
Where did she land?

The Broker

2,630 posts

143 months

Sunday 15th October 2017
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Surf's up.

citizensm1th

8,371 posts

137 months

Sunday 15th October 2017
quotequote all
voyds9 said:
citizensm1th said:
i was going out with a girl who prior to the storm lived in seven oaks
Where did she land?
Just east of tunbridge wells if i remember right

Ructions

4,705 posts

121 months

Sunday 15th October 2017
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I've got the in-laws over for the weekend, due to go home tomorrow. All flights to and from Ireland are cancelled. Wonderful banghead

karona

1,918 posts

186 months

Sunday 15th October 2017
quotequote all
Gandahar said:
TTmonkey said:
Great picture.

What must be remembered is that these forecasts are just best guess work. IRMA showed how unpredictable these things can be, she jinked all over the place and most forecasts was for Bahamas and eastern seaboard, which turned out wrong. And that's tracking hurricanes that go through ththe Caribbean all the time. How many come east in the Atlantic? Not many.
Good point, was thinking the same myself, this is the strongest storm this far east in the Atlantic, so models will be learning as they go along to some extent I think.
NEMS model, short range, high resolution. (press play, bottom left)
https://on.windy.com/t52h

Alpacaman

920 posts

241 months

Sunday 15th October 2017
quotequote all
Glad I'm not out on a boat!

From the shipping forecast for Sole and Fitzroy

Gale warning - Issued: 0339 UTC on Sunday 15 October 2017
Northerly gale force 8 expected soon, backing westerly and increasing hurricane force 12 later
Wind - Cyclonic becoming west later, storm 10 to hurricane force 12.
Sea state - High or very high, occasionally phenomenal.
Weather - Rain or showers.
Visibility - Poor or very poor.

citizensm1th

8,371 posts

137 months

Sunday 15th October 2017
quotequote all
i bet some silly sod tries surfing on monday