How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 2)

[Funkycoldribena]

barryrs said:

I can feel another “ahah racist” coming.

Nah,it'll be "xenophobia".
That's the usual.

[Tuna]

///ajd said:

Can't have it both ways - one minute Sidicks is saying I only want FoM as I'm too thick to get a job abroad, when I suggest that is not the case, I get accused of not caring.

Its interesting you think the QT audience need some concrete indications that stuff is going to change.

What do you think is going to change?

Wages going up? No chance, we're slowing down.
Less immigration? How will that help if it affects the economy?

You'll note, if you read what I said again, that I said both sides need to be aware of this. I'm not promising anything on behalf of Brexit, just observing what's driving it.

The point was that Remainers are still just offering "more of the same". This either comes as people smugly telling each other that anyone who wants to change things is either thick or xenophobic, or telling people that change is impossible. I'm trying to help you here - if you want to win anyone over you've got to explain how the EU is going to make things better, not how the EU is going to keep doing the same thing again and again and again.

The only thing that's keeping Remain in the news in the moment is that the government haven't magically delivered Brexit on a plate just a few months into the negotiations. That's not a shift in favour of the EU, it's just frustration with a long and drawn out process.

The danger for Brexiteers is that the government doesn't actually make a change on leaving. You asked what that might be.. well immigration based on need, improved agricultural and fisheries policies, regional growth strategies, strategic reduction in tariffs, improved ties with high growth, high technology countries etc. etc. etc. Together this could really shift attitude and perception in the UK - but if we get dragged into a maximum compromise Brexit where all of these things are declared too complicated or impossible to negotiate then we're back to stagnancy and there *will* be more political turmoil.

Remainers who think they can sneak in a 'Brexit in name only' really don't understand how damaging that will be. People want change.

///ajd said:

What we've had so far is inflation and general fkwittery.

And jobs and a stable economy and strong exports and a bunch of people who seem to think that putting things back to "the way it was" is what people want.

///ajd said:

I'd agree that those who voted for brexit to make things better are going to be pretty annoyed when things get worse. They need to stop being victims and blaming remainers, and blame the the lying brexiteers who offered you much but are going to deliver fck all. They never could.

Maybe it's me, but I don't see much blame. Most of the people aiming for leave seem to be quite patient with the process. The cries of "are we there yet?" are coming from Remainers who quite transparently want the process to go badly and will leap on any story that suggests its's true. There's no victim mentality when we don't yet know what the exact form Brexit is going to take. And so far, nothing that has been said prevents any of the changes I mentioned above - unless we fail to make a clean exit from the EU (not 'hard' or 'soft' - just a break from any trade agreement that prevents us from setting our own trade, tariff and immigration policies).

And the point here is that if we have those freedoms, we're then free to vote for whichever political party chooses to exercise them. I can't see a single outcome that will make people feel positively towards EU membership, just because there's no series of events where the EU can 'save the day', however much you personally may feel lied to or cheated. If it all goes pear shaped the blame now will lie with our current government and indirectly with the EU for putting us in this position - no-one is going to look to Brussels to make things better. Not least because they have been very, very clear that they would not wish to do so.

Edited by Tuna on Sunday 17th December 20:24

[///ajd]

Tuna said:

Maybe it's me, but I don't see much blame. Most of the people aiming for leave seem to be quite patient with the process. The cries of "are we there yet?" are coming from Remainers who quite transparently want the process to go badly and will leap on any story that suggests its's true. There's no victim mentality when we don't yet know what the exact form Brexit is going to take. And so far, nothing that has been said prevents any of the changes I mentioned above - unless we fail to make a clean exit from the EU (not 'hard' or 'soft' - just a break from any trade agreement that prevents us from setting our own trade, tariff and immigration policies).

And the point here is that if we have those freedoms, we're then free to vote for whichever political party chooses to exercise them. I can't see a single outcome that will make people feel positively towards EU membership, just because there's no series of events where the EU can 'save the day', however much you personally may feel lied to or cheated. If it all goes pear shaped the blame now will lie with our current government and indirectly with the EU for putting us in this position - no-one is going to look to Brussels to make things better. Not least because they have been very, very clear that they would not wish to do so.

Edited by Tuna on Sunday 17th December 20:24

I think our views are different in that we see different outcomes from a certain brexit.

To take one example - the romantic image of a fishing renaissance post brexit is not matched by those working in the industry. As Norway knows, approach the EU in a certain way and your processing goes offshore - into the EU. Also the shellfish industry here is hugely successful in the EU and has already asked to be "excused" the impact of a certain brexit. Both these point to the sort of "watered down" brexit that you fear - and that's before you even start on the NI border.

Neither of us know for sure what the trade talks will delivery - we will have to see.

The lack of analysis by Davis is worrying as it looks like they are cuffing it.

I would like any brexit trade scenario to know whether adding 0.1% GDP via fishing is worth a 3% hit on FS/services.

I honestly believe such a trade off will leave us all worse off - the same NHS that both FS worker and fisherman alike use will be starved of cash overall.

Hopefully some proper analysis will be done on he impact of whatever deal emerges to inform the nation properly.

I'm optimistic that if you thought the people that want change and thought they will be better off were to learn that this was all lies and what was on offer was much worse than an alternative, they may change their mind. Then they should be angry for being sold something else.

[Robertj21a]

///ajd said:

I think our views are different in that we see different outcomes from a certain brexit.

To take one example - the romantic image of a fishing renaissance post brexit is not matched by those working in the industry. As Norway knows, approach the EU in a certain way and your processing goes offshore - into the EU. Also the shellfish industry here is hugely successful in the EU and has already asked to be "excused" the impact of a certain brexit. Both these point to the sort of "watered down" brexit that you fear - and that's before you even start on the NI border.

Neither of us know for sure what the trade talks will delivery - we will have to see.

The lack of analysis by Davis is worrying as it looks like they are cuffing it.

I would like any brexit trade scenario to know whether adding 0.1% GDP via fishing is worth a 3% hit on FS/services.

I honestly believe such a trade off will leave us all worse off - the same NHS that both FS worker and fisherman alike use will be starved of cash overall.

Hopefully some proper analysis will be done on he impact of whatever deal emerges to inform the nation properly.

I'm optimistic that if you thought the people that want change and thought they will be better off were to learn that this was all lies and what was on offer was much worse than an alternative, they may change their mind. Then they should be angry for being sold something else.

Ha Ha, very good.

Seriously, as you've been banging away on that keyboard nearly all day long isn't it time to give those fingers [and the rest of us] some rest ?

[Rich_W]

///ajd said:

Interesting. So the guy in the flat on £22k with a family are part of the problem?

Yes. He is the absolute wrong sort of person that should be in this country.

///ajd said:

Is his job not important to the economy? The company he works for I assume think so. Surely he has to spend a lot of that £22k in the UK or he couldn't live and eat etc.

Ahh. But as he (and his family) consume services and benefits. He is in deficit. So he's not a net benefactor to the country. Hence why I suggest he needn't be here. We've got enough of those already. Brits and elsewhere. We don't need anymore!

///ajd said:

It seems you really don't like him at all. How did he bully the OAP?

Knocked on her door and demanded she turned her TV down. (and it wasn't loud!) Though of course his "death metal" practice is completely fine whenever he wants to do it! There's some other things I don't want to mention here. Essentially does what he likes, ignores the rules of the block etc and then is intimidating and lies towards the residents association (who are of course all over 60) when they question him. They are scared to report him. It's obvious since they buy into his "macho gangstar" demeanour and are worried he'll "visit them". He's just a plum. But everyone is scared to be accused of racism towards him. So it's very difficult

///ajd said:

Do you think him being EE had a bearing on his behaviour?

To a degree Yes. I've said it elsewhere but Latvia, (as he is) Bulgaria, Romania are NOT the same as Germany, France and Italy. They are significantly different culturally. Particularly with regards to rules and the obeying of them as I've seen away from home. So we get into the argument of how do you make him change his ingrained ways and become "British" It's clearly not impossible. He just doesn't want to. Its a stereotype of course. But it seems to fit the lower IQ/skill migrants more than say Nurses and Carpenters.

///ajd said:

Would you like to see someone like him not able to enter the country under the new brexit immigration rules?

Yes. The main reason is that he's not got any skills that we don't already have.

[///ajd]

Rich_W said:

///ajd said:

Interesting. So the guy in the flat on £22k with a family are part of the problem?

Yes. He is the absolute wrong sort of person that should be in this country.

///ajd said:

Is his job not important to the economy? The company he works for I assume think so. Surely he has to spend a lot of that £22k in the UK or he couldn't live and eat etc.

Ahh. But as he (and his family) consume services and benefits. He is in deficit. So he's not a net benefactor to the country. Hence why I suggest he needn't be here. We've got enough of those already. Brits and elsewhere. We don't need anymore!

///ajd said:

It seems you really don't like him at all. How did he bully the OAP?

Knocked on her door and demanded she turned her TV down. (and it wasn't loud!) Though of course his "death metal" practice is completely fine whenever he wants to do it! There's some other things I don't want to mention here. Essentially does what he likes, ignores the rules of the block etc and then is intimidating and lies towards the residents association (who are of course all over 60) when they question him. They are scared to report him. It's obvious since they buy into his "macho gangstar" demeanour and are worried he'll "visit them". He's just a plum. But everyone is scared to be accused of racism towards him. So it's very difficult

///ajd said:

Do you think him being EE had a bearing on his behaviour?

To a degree Yes. I've said it elsewhere but Latvia, (as he is) Bulgaria, Romania are NOT the same as Germany, France and Italy. They are significantly different culturally. Particularly with regards to rules and the obeying of them as I've seen away from home. So we get into the argument of how do you make him change his ingrained ways and become "British" It's clearly not impossible. He just doesn't want to. Its a stereotype of course. But it seems to fit the lower IQ/skill migrants more than say Nurses and Carpenters.

///ajd said:

Would you like to see someone like him not able to enter the country under the new brexit immigration rules?

Yes. The main reason is that he's not got any skills that we don't already have.

How will the immigration service weed him out?

What is his job? If that is needed and can't be filled locally - whats to stop him being let in?

[Tuna]

///ajd said:

I would like any brexit trade scenario to know whether adding 0.1% GDP via fishing is worth a 3% hit on FS/services.

Do you genuinely believe a single person in any of the coastal towns of the UK (bar, perhaps Brighton) gives a flying fk if some bankers are 3% less wealthy? The people who vote care about their jobs, their towns, their industries... not GDP.

You really don't get it, do you? This is about how people feel, not about some absolute measure of wealth or success.

A job in a poor country is worth more to some people than no job in the richest country in the world.

[The Dangerous Elk]

///ajd said:

How will the immigration service weed him out?

What is his job? If that is needed and can't be filled locally - whats to stop him being let in?

Ask the Australians how they "weed out" (I note you use the most unpleasant term) people they do feel qualified to enter, or maybe read the link I gave you ?

If he was qualified and met the criteria of the system/Uk need, then he would be welcome. If his behaviour infringed the entry regulations then he would have his visa revoked.

Really, try reading up on the systems most of the world uses before you spout any more rubbish.

[don'tbesilly]

Tuna said:

///ajd said:

I would like any brexit trade scenario to know whether adding 0.1% GDP via fishing is worth a 3% hit on FS/services.

Do you genuinely believe a single person in any of the coastal towns of the UK (bar, perhaps Brighton) gives a flying fk if some bankers are 3% less wealthy? The people who vote care about their jobs, their towns, their industries... not GDP.

You really don't get it, do you? This is about how people feel, not about some absolute measure of wealth or success.

A job in a poor country is worth more to some people than no job in the richest country in the world.

This neatly encapsulates why the Remain campaign lost the referendum, and the Ashcroft poll nailed the reasons why people voted Leave:

Nearly half (49%) of leave voters said the biggest single reason for wanting to leave the EU was “the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK”.

One third (33%) said the main reason was that leaving “offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders.”

Just over one in eight (13%) said remaining would mean having no choice “about how the EU expanded its membership or its powers in the years ahead.”

Only just over one in twenty (6%) said their main reason was that “when it comes to trade and the economy, the UK would benefit more from being outside the EU than from being part of it.”

[ORD]

don'tbesilly said:

This neatly encapsulates why the Remain campaign lost the referendum, and the Ashcroft poll nailed the reasons why people voted Leave:

Nearly half (49%) of leave voters said the biggest single reason for wanting to leave the EU was “the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK”.

One third (33%) said the main reason was that leaving “offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders.”

Just over one in eight (13%) said remaining would mean having no choice “about how the EU expanded its membership or its powers in the years ahead.”

Only just over one in twenty (6%) said their main reason was that “when it comes to trade and the economy, the UK would benefit more from being outside the EU than from being part of it.”

Polls, polls and damn lies.

Polling also shows that very few people would pay to reduce immigration. That’s exactly the kind of question people should have asked themselves: do I mind be poorer to get less immigration?

Very few people asked those kind of questions because they swallowed the ‘had enough of experts’ rubbish and decided to ignore any predictions about economic impacts.

Many of course just do not understand the link between their own standard of life and the condition of the economy. Those people don’t even begin to ask themselves the right questions.

[sidicks]

ORD said:

Polls, polls and damn lies.

Polling also shows that very few people would pay to reduce immigration. That’s exactly the kind of question people should have asked themselves: do I mind be poorer to get less immigration?

Who said anything about less immigration - you're still not getting this, are you?!

Do you still think that ALL immigration adds value?

ORD said:

Very few people asked those kind of questions because they swallowed the ‘had enough of experts’ rubbish and decided to ignore any predictions about economic impacts.

Many of course just do not understand the link between their own standard of life and the condition of the economy. Those people don’t even begin to ask themselves the right questions.

Neither do you seem to be able to answer any questions posed to you, you just repeat a few soundbites which don't stand up to scrutiny.

[powerstroke]

I think slasher must have lost his job , surely no one has this much time to waste on some war of attrition with car enthusiasts over leaving a poxy bureaucracy ,
or is he in the pay of some dark force ????

[don'tbesilly]

ORD said:

don'tbesilly said:

This neatly encapsulates why the Remain campaign lost the referendum, and the Ashcroft poll nailed the reasons why people voted Leave:

Nearly half (49%) of leave voters said the biggest single reason for wanting to leave the EU was “the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK”.

One third (33%) said the main reason was that leaving “offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders.”

Just over one in eight (13%) said remaining would mean having no choice “about how the EU expanded its membership or its powers in the years ahead.”

Only just over one in twenty (6%) said their main reason was that “when it comes to trade and the economy, the UK would benefit more from being outside the EU than from being part of it.”

Polls, polls and damn lies.

Polling also shows that very few people would pay to reduce immigration. That’s exactly the kind of question people should have asked themselves: do I mind be poorer to get less immigration?

Very few people asked those kind of questions because they swallowed the ‘had enough of experts’ rubbish and decided to ignore any predictions about economic impacts.

Many of course just do not understand the link between their own standard of life and the condition of the economy. Those people don’t even begin to ask themselves the right questions.

This neatly encapsulates the beliefs of a typical remainer, certainly those who post in this and other Brexit threads.

Immigration wasn't the be all and end all of why people voted Leave, and the majority of those who voted Leave had already made their minds up on which way they'd vote prior to the campaigning beginning.

Their mind was made up as soon as the decision was made to have a referendum.

Farage and the poster, the bus et al, were irrelevant to many and had no impact on their decision to vote Leave.

[powerstroke]

ORD said:

Polls, polls and damn lies.

Polling also shows that very few people would pay to reduce immigration. That’s exactly the kind of question people should have asked themselves: do I mind be poorer to get less immigration?

Very few people asked those kind of questions because they swallowed the ‘had enough of experts’ rubbish and decided to ignore any predictions about economic impacts.

Many of course just do not understand the link between their own standard of life and the condition of the economy. Those people don’t even begin to ask themselves the right questions.

condesending alert , I would guess those who voted leave on the immigration issue did so Because of affect of mass immigration or more correctly migration on the economy was a major factor lowering of their standard of living.
people like me who voted on the control and sovereignty issue also realised
the affect on the economy, and listened to the wealth creators which so far has come true and been very positive for industry ..

Edited by roops.mod on Monday 18th December 09:32

[gooner1]

Ajd, I noticed, a couple of pages back, that you were
singing the praises of Australia's immigration policy.
Are you advocating that Europe and the UK follow those policies?

[Rich_W]

///ajd said:

How will the immigration service weed him out?

What is his job? If that is needed and can't be filled locally - whats to stop him being let in?

He is a porter in North London. (not saying where, not NHS though) He carries things up and down stairs. Or uses the lift to be honest. The very definition of a low skill job that anyone able bodied can do. Presumably a UK national COULD do that job, probably for the same money even. I can't believe that there is no-one local, out of work that wouldn't do this job if given the opportunity. I've seen elsewhere that if you have a large proportion of EE migrants in a department. They tend to hire further EE than UK nationals due to the language barrier. I guess that counts as discrimination!

Any points based system would not allow him to move here over someone with a trade/skill or experience. Presumably if he was skilled as a plumber/chippy or Doctor etc he'd be doing that instead.

So to me that's a slam dunk. No new/required skills. A loss to the UK economy in that he takes out more than he puts in with Tax/NI. And as a bonus he's Anti Social

Remind me why in THIS example we should view him as an asset? But we can't remove him and his family.

[Tuna]

ORD said:

Very few people asked those kind of questions because they swallowed the ‘had enough of experts’ rubbish and decided to ignore any predictions about economic impacts.

Many of course just do not understand the link between their own standard of life and the condition of the economy. Those people don’t even begin to ask themselves the right questions.

This is of course exactly the issue that the EU has proven to be weak in. Are the people of Greece glad that Germany is doing so well for the EU economy? Do you think those people in Newcastle are asking themselves the wrong question when bankers in London make all the money?

The "had enough of experts" rhetoric works because people are fed up of being told that they should be grateful by some smug arse in a university or financial institute. Being lectured on the standard of your life by someone who shops at Waitrose and winters with their family in the Alps does not tend to go down well.

But I'm sure if they just asked the right questions, they'll feel so much better.

[hyphen]

ORD said:

Polling also shows that very few people would pay to reduce immigration. That’s exactly the kind of question people should have asked themselves: do I mind be poorer to get less immigration?

Research by Oxford and so on have shown that Eu migration has a tiny net benefit, if any.

The reason for this is that with 'open borders' you get a variety of quality, the doctors and bankers being offset by the large amount of min hourly wage, part time people.

So take the sector of migrants that are the controversial ones - low paid, unskilled. With the UK being a wealthy country, we have pretty much unlimited supply of willing migrants wanting to come in from across the world, so why take in an EU national with 3 kids? Yes he will work hard, but will need top up benefit to make up his income, kids educations costs of thousands per year and so on. Why take in a labourer who is 45 instead of one who is 25? His working life is near the end and he will add to an already struggling elderly care service, as a lifetime of ling hours of tough labouring will have taken its toll on his body.

If we 'manage' migration then people will not need to be poorer as you assert, frankly if we end open borders and are stricter on quality, then future academic studies will actually show large net contributions by migrants.

Edited by hyphen on Sunday 17th December 23:47

[wisbech]

sidicks said:

///ajd said:

You are unable to say why you want to stop FoM with the EU.

No, you just choose not to understand.

///ajd said:

Though in the end the argument over immigration may well be lost if it remains as baseless as this.

As baseless as your failure to acknowledge that there is a good reason why Freedom of Movement exists nowhere outside of the EU?

Actually it does between NZ and Australia and between NZ and some of the Pacific Island countries

[zbc]

hyphen said:

If we 'manage' migration then people will not need to be poorer as you assert, frankly if we end open borders and are stricter on quality, then future academic studies will actually show large net contributions by migrants.

Edited by hyphen on Sunday 17th December 23:47

So who will do all the "low paid, unskilled" jobs when the East Europeans leave. I work in a warehouse and probably more than 80% of my colleagues are not native British but the local unemployment rate is about 5% I believe. There's no point saying "pay more" as the only place they could come from is other local employers unless you fancy implementing mass forced migration from other parts of the UK.