How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 2)

How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 2)

TOPIC CLOSED
TOPIC CLOSED
Author
Discussion

alfie2244

11,292 posts

187 months

Monday 18th December 2017
quotequote all
wisbech said:
sidicks said:
///ajd said:
You are unable to say why you want to stop FoM with the EU.
No, you just choose not to understand.

///ajd said:
Though in the end the argument over immigration may well be lost if it remains as baseless as this.
As baseless as your failure to acknowledge that there is a good reason why Freedom of Movement exists nowhere outside of the EU?
Actually it does between NZ and Australia and between NZ and some of the Pacific Island countries
How strange....I seem to remember watching a few episodes of a documentary where they are filming Ozzy customs and I am certain I have seen them stop NZ citizens from entering Oz due to have fairly minor criminal convictions, dope smoking, DD, or violence even as a junior years previous...IIRC even just for holidays.

PurpleMoonlight

22,362 posts

156 months

Monday 18th December 2017
quotequote all
Breadvan72 said:
FT


Gees, that looks bad.

Especially when you consider ours is projected to fall even further.

ORD

18,086 posts

126 months

Monday 18th December 2017
quotequote all
Breadvan72 said:
In other news, UKIP's ever charming Godfrey Bloom (Google him, but hold your nose) describes Goldman Sachs as a "Jewish Bank".

#1930s

https://twitter.com/goddersbloom/status/9426645079...

Edited by Breadvan72 on Monday 18th December 09:05
Much worse than that - he called it an ‘International Jewish bank’ and then suggested that it has some hidden motive to want the UK to remain in the EU (rather than, for example, that being better for the economy, including financial services).

Nobody could use the descriptor ‘International Jewish’ without knowing that they are echoing Nazi propaganda. Utterly disgraceful.

anonymous-user

53 months

Monday 18th December 2017
quotequote all
But 'kippers aren't racists, of course not. Honest patriots.

b2hbm

1,291 posts

221 months

Monday 18th December 2017
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
Gees, that looks bad.
Especially when you consider ours is projected to fall even further.
I'd agree, although as BV says, it is a forecast. The US will grow from 1.5 to 2.2%, 0.7%, or roughly 50% increase on base. Japan is similar, 1.0 to 1.6%, 0.6% increase. The EU, even removing the UK figures, only manages to grow from 1.9 to 2.4%, the lowest increase shown. And we haven't even left yet.

Amazing what you can do with numbers, isn't it ? wink

Coolbanana

4,383 posts

199 months

Monday 18th December 2017
quotequote all
Well, 2018 is going to be every bit as interesting as 2017 for Brexit...smile

The negative impact to the economy is now starting to pick up steam and is being felt not only by the most vulnerable anymore.

We have a major Poll showing a large swing to remaining in the EU, well beyond margin of error. I predict Polls will see this trend continue and increase in favour of Remain as the true identity of Brexit sinks in to the populace at large.

Phase 1 was a predicted capitulation. It started with the EU suggesting a divorce settlement of circa 40 -60 million. Davis and Boris et al guffawed and shot it down - "go whistle". TM eventually offers 20 million after the EU raised the stakes to 'possibly closer to 100 million, actually'. Then the NI Crisis Trump Card is played by the EU. The UK concedes 39 million. So...EU get around what they originally suggested and walks the UK into 'Regulatory Alignment'. Nice one, EU.

The upshot? The millions who did not vote in the Referendum are now waking up to what Brexit will actually mean. Now, they are starting to express concern and the Polls suggest that for many, they have decided upon Remain. Sufficient numbers that if continued, the Government and Parliament will have to take notice.

Labour. Confused and seemingly on the fence. Mixed signals galore. Why? Because they know that delivering what a Majority actually want now is their best shot at Power. The Tory's are stumbling. They are weak and outclassed. They are accepting that the very best they can do is a so-called 'soft Brexit'. Now, 'Canada Plus Plus Plus' is never going to happen. Leavers can stop kidding themselves. Canada with very minor tweaks is the best deal that will be available. Financial Services? Don't be so bullish as to believe they will not end up in Amsterdam and Frankfurt - at least enough to ensure the Euro isn't hurt. London meanwhile...

So, Labour then...as soon as they can see that a Majority really would like to Remain rather than accept the UK becoming a vassal Member State to the EU; a 'soft Brexit' that changes very little, they will announce themselves as firmly behind offering a 2nd Referendum with an option to Remain ; all doors will be re-opened and it'll be: The Negotiated Tory Deal or Remain.
No? biggrin, the aforementtioned is no less unrealistic than a Brexit win the first place! Not now. Not seeing what a farce Brexit is proving to be.

The Tory Rebels, already bolstered by the latest Polls, will want to avert a Labour Catastrophe in the form of hard-line Socialism and fight ever-harder to defeat the Reece-Moggs etc. They will also push for a 2nd vote with Remain as an option.

Of course, equally likely, I agree, is that The People accept a 'soft Brexit'. It is possible and what TM is hanging her career upon. Hard Brexit? No. I reckon that has been seen for the disaster it would be now - even today, we read reports from Gove about reversing the 48 hour week that would favour Employers and their Investors more than the average Worker. The truth is emerging...a Hard Brexit vote is what led to the Referendum in the first place and it is becoming patently obvious that it was all about certain indivduals and Businesses screwing over the Man in the Street all over again; sans EU protection. Take Back Control - Screw the Little, Gullible Englander. laughlaughlaugh - pass the Port, Moggy!

sidicks

25,218 posts

220 months

Monday 18th December 2017
quotequote all
Coolbanana said:
Well, 2018 is going to be every bit as interesting as 2017 for Brexit...smile

The negative impact to the economy is now starting to pick up steam and is being felt not only by the most vulnerable anymore.

We have a major Poll showing a large swing to remaining in the EU, well beyond margin of error. I predict Polls will see this trend continue and increase in favour of Remain as the true identity of Brexit sinks in to the populace at large.

Phase 1 was a predicted capitulation. It started with the EU suggesting a divorce settlement of circa 40 -60 million. Davis and Boris et al guffawed and shot it down - "go whistle". TM eventually offers 20 million after the EU raised the stakes to 'possibly closer to 100 million, actually'. Then the NI Crisis Trump Card is played by the EU. The UK concedes 39 million. So...EU get around what they originally suggested and walks the UK into 'Regulatory Alignment'. Nice one, EU.

The upshot? The millions who did not vote in the Referendum are now waking up to what Brexit will actually mean. Now, they are starting to express concern and the Polls suggest that for many, they have decided upon Remain. Sufficient numbers that if continued, the Government and Parliament will have to take notice.

Labour. Confused and seemingly on the fence. Mixed signals galore. Why? Because they know that delivering what a Majority actually want now is their best shot at Power. The Tory's are stumbling. They are weak and outclassed. They are accepting that the very best they can do is a so-called 'soft Brexit'. Now, 'Canada Plus Plus Plus' is never going to happen. Leavers can stop kidding themselves. Canada with very minor tweaks is the best deal that will be available. Financial Services? Don't be so bullish as to believe they will not end up in Amsterdam and Frankfurt - at least enough to ensure the Euro isn't hurt. London meanwhile...

So, Labour then...as soon as they can see that a Majority really would like to Remain rather than accept the UK becoming a vassal Member State to the EU; a 'soft Brexit' that changes very little, they will announce themselves as firmly behind offering a 2nd Referendum with an option to Remain ; all doors will be re-opened and it'll be: The Negotiated Tory Deal or Remain.
No? biggrin, the aforementtioned is no less unrealistic than a Brexit win the first place! Not now. Not seeing what a farce Brexit is proving to be.

The Tory Rebels, already bolstered by the latest Polls, will want to avert a Labour Catastrophe in the form of hard-line Socialism and fight ever-harder to defeat the Reece-Moggs etc. They will also push for a 2nd vote with Remain as an option.

Of course, equally likely, I agree, is that The People accept a 'soft Brexit'. It is possible and what TM is hanging her career upon. Hard Brexit? No. I reckon that has been seen for the disaster it would be now - even today, we read reports from Gove about reversing the 48 hour week that would favour Employers and their Investors more than the average Worker. The truth is emerging...a Hard Brexit vote is what led to the Referendum in the first place and it is becoming patently obvious that it was all about certain indivduals and Businesses screwing over the Man in the Street all over again; sans EU protection. Take Back Control - Screw the Little, Gullible Englander. laughlaughlaugh - pass the Port, Moggy!
sleep

jjlynn27

7,935 posts

108 months

Monday 18th December 2017
quotequote all
Rich_W said:
jjlynn27 said:
Rich_W said:
Given the vast majority of immigration to this country comes from inside the EU as a direct result of FOM.
Oh well. My facts are wrong. How terrible for me. I went off of a differnet link though. (telegraph) Only in sept 16 did EU overtake ROW

But I notice you don't point out any way to limit the numbers. Immigration IS a subject that annoys people. You cant take in millions extra people when there isn't the infrastructure there to support it. And Yes you can blame the Labour government for a) not introducing any curbs. And b) also for not investing in schools, housing when the economy was doing well. Since now we are in austerity "theres no money left" we cant afford to do everything. But presumably we should keep FOM as it means even more can turn up.

GENUINE TRUE STORY About a year or so back. I was stopped in the street (I was on a run so had to take headphones out) by a young vacant looking EE guy. Literally first words out his mouth were "car wash?" laugh And the nearest one was a good mile and half away. I sent him the wrong way though. (I didn't really, biggrin I just thought "how many car cleaners does that site need?" ) Try explaining to a guy with no English he needs to go to the lights turn left then go down about 5 sets of lights and its on the right? laugh

Rich_W said:
And given a sizeable chunk of those are low IQ, low skilled, non English fluent Eastern Europeans. (Car cleaners/labourers etc)
Idiot that doesn't live in the UK says said:
rofl

Delicioso.
And from your hidey hole in a different country you know this how? Come to Croydon/Tooting etc Tell me what you see? Dumbarse! laugh I work with a lot of Bulgarians/Romanians. Roughly 20ish. 3 of them are fluent, educated and affable. The rest are impolite, speak virtually no English (which can make my life difficult unless I get one of the fluent ones to translate) They are clearly not educated to GCSE standard. Often ignore our site safety rules. And work on zero hour contracts for what I suspect is absolute minimum wage. But you pro -EU types will tell me that migrants are all highly skilled etc. When the evidence to me, based on numerous sites over the last 20odd years. Suggests that whilst many are skilled and integrate all the good stuff. It's by no means a majority.
Rich, nobody is surprised that you got your facts wrong. For the same reason that you are competing with immigrants who can't speak a word of English.

Would it help if I tell you that I live in the UK? Or that I lived in Croydon (Davidson Rd.) and yes, it was a sthole, but it was a place where if you are even a little bit capable you don't stay there for long, It was a sthole then, it seems that it's a sthole now, and it doesn't look like that it's going to change any time soom.

I'd imagine that most of those immigrants are better educated than you, can't be much worse, can it?

And there you go again, after showing that you have no idea about immigration and where it comes from, you are back with another idiotic assertion about the level of education. Quite clearly not in a position to judge that.

smile


Edited by jjlynn27 on Monday 18th December 09:51

jjlynn27

7,935 posts

108 months

Monday 18th December 2017
quotequote all
wisbech said:
sidicks said:
///ajd said:
You are unable to say why you want to stop FoM with the EU.
No, you just choose not to understand.

///ajd said:
Though in the end the argument over immigration may well be lost if it remains as baseless as this.
As baseless as your failure to acknowledge that there is a good reason why Freedom of Movement exists nowhere outside of the EU?
Actually it does between NZ and Australia and between NZ and some of the Pacific Island countries
rofl

Don't tell him that, he just spent last few months thinking that that's his killer argument.
It's not like that he's talking out of his ass, is it?
smile

The incoming strawman is going to be funny.

jjlynn27

7,935 posts

108 months

Monday 18th December 2017
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
Breadvan72 said:
FT


Gees, that looks bad.

Especially when you consider ours is projected to fall even further.
Project Fear, don't fall for enemy propaganda designed to derail the most Brexitous Brexit of all.

wc98

10,334 posts

139 months

Monday 18th December 2017
quotequote all
don'tbesilly said:
This neatly encapsulates the beliefs of a typical remainer, certainly those who post in this and other Brexit threads.

Immigration wasn't the be all and end all of why people voted Leave, and the majority of those who voted Leave had already made their minds up on which way they'd vote prior to the campaigning beginning.

Their mind was made up as soon as the decision was made to have a referendum.

Farage and the poster, the bus et al, were irrelevant to many and had no impact on their decision to vote Leave.
i don't think you are being fair to typical remainers there. i have a had a few conversations recently with people that voted remain and in the the main they are being fairly pragmatic about the result and the current situation. what we have here in most cases (there are a few exceptions) are remainiacs . there is absolutely nothing that will convince them that their opinion (on any subject) is not fact or the vast majority of leave voters are not racists/xenophobes and that the uk in the long term will be fine.


anonymous-user

53 months

Monday 18th December 2017
quotequote all
I love it! The faction that built a case on lies and ignorance and blind faith accusing remainers of being zealots and fantasists!

Coolbanana

4,383 posts

199 months

Monday 18th December 2017
quotequote all
sidicks said:
sleep
The Brexit Referendum was led by Hard Brexiteers. A Hard Brexit is what they campaigned for, with the UK in such a commanding position that the EU would beg for a great Trade Deal afterwards.

This was sold to 17 million gullible souls.

Since then, we have seen Brexit rhetoric - even here on PH - shift from a Hard Brexit to a Soft Brexit. Why? Because it has become increasingly apparent what a shambles a Hard Brexit would inevitably be and that the UK is not the Great Empire it once was and cannot bend the will of the EU.

TM & Co. have embarrassingly moved from bullish arrogance to a Canada Plus Plus Plus. Why do Leavers still believe they can deliver anything? It won't be a Canada Plus, let alone Plus x3.
The EU will offer EU Lite. The Tories will ultimately accept that.

Now, Joe Soap who thought he had voted to leave the EU in its entirety will be a tad confused.

"So Brexit, you know, properly Leaving is now shown to be something bad and we can't have it without me selling a testicle and a kid and I have ended up voting for something called 'EU Lite'? With no practical positive changes to me and a negative hit to my take-home?"
"Sod that, Matey, if I am going to have to have some EU, I'll be having EU Full Fat! Let's get back in!"

Can see it happening, can't ya? biggrinlaughwink

wc98

10,334 posts

139 months

Monday 18th December 2017
quotequote all
Breadvan72 said:
I love it! The faction that built a case on lies and ignorance and blind faith accusing remainers of being zealots and fantasists!
nope, a very small proportion of remain voters are zealots and fantasists. probably about the same proportion as the extreme end of those that voted brexit. there are utter bell ends in both camps, it just appears we have a high number of the remainiac bell ends on here.

anonymous-user

53 months

Monday 18th December 2017
quotequote all
don'tbesilly said:
... Farage and the poster, the bus et al, were irrelevant to many and had no impact on their decision to vote Leave.
The Leavers here fall over themselves in desperation to show that they weren't influenced by Farage and the bus. Strange that this apparently virtuous project is one supported by some of the vilest people to blot the UK political and media landscape in recent memory - Farage, Johnson, Dacre, Murdoch, Rees Mogg et al. These people, we are supposed to believe, had no impact on any significant number of voters. Yeah right.

andymadmak

14,482 posts

269 months

Monday 18th December 2017
quotequote all
Breadvan72 said:
I love it! The faction that built a case on lies and ignorance and blind faith accusing remainers of being zealots and fantasists!
Some Remain voters are zealots and fantasists, that much is clear.
It may only be a few - and too many of them seem to post on PH, but most Remainers I know are reasonable people who just want to get on with their lives.

And as you very well know BV, lies, distortions, hyperbole and ignorance were also in abundant supply on the Remain side of the campaign.
Strange that you consistently fail to acknowledge that inconvenient truth.

Faction? Hardly so, given that Brexit voters represent a majority of those who voted in the Referendum.

Perhaps if Remain had spent more time working on positive reasons to vote to stay in the EU, rather than fear mongering, patronising and insulting people and ignoring the concerns of their fellow citizens the Referendum result might (and only might) have been different. But then again, perhaps if the tragic murder of Jo Cox had not been shamelessly manipulated by the Remain camp the vote to leave might have been overwhelming. We will never know.


Mrr T

12,152 posts

264 months

Monday 18th December 2017
quotequote all
Tuna said:
The danger for Brexiteers is that the government doesn't actually make a change on leaving. You asked what that might be.. well immigration based on need, improved agricultural and fisheries policies, regional growth strategies, strategic reduction in tariffs, improved ties with high growth, high technology countries etc. etc. etc. Together this could really shift attitude and perception in the UK - but if we get dragged into a maximum compromise Brexit where all of these things are declared too complicated or impossible to negotiate then we're back to stagnancy and there *will* be more political turmoil.

Remainers who think they can sneak in a 'Brexit in name only' really don't understand how damaging that will be. People want change.
One thing that amuses me about team leave and many of our purple faced posters is they all want change.

However, when you ask what changes they want they struggle to name any. It’s a bit like brexit they want it to happen they just have no idea how it should happen (or in the case of the real buffoons they ignore reality and make up impossible solutions).

A few want the UK to become some sort of north Atlantic Singapore. The problem is most have no idea how Singapore works and why its never going to happen.

If we look at the last election I suspect most people in the UK just want the government to find a magic money tree.


andymadmak

14,482 posts

269 months

Monday 18th December 2017
quotequote all
Breadvan72 said:
The Leavers here fall over themselves in desperation to show that they weren't influenced by Farage and the bus. Strange that this apparently virtuous project is one supported by some of the vilest people to blot the UK political and media landscape in recent memory - Farage, Johnson, Dacre, Murdoch, Rees Mogg et al. These people, we are supposed to believe, had no impact on any significant number of voters. Yeah right.
To be fair you have Polly Toynbee and Tony Blair (and others) in the Remain camp - so I hardly think you're in any position to crow about who had the vilest on board.

I'm beginning to see a pattern amongst Remainers, you included. You seem unwilling to accept that many people ACTUALLY thought about what they were doing when they voted. In your (rather smug and patronising ) world 17 million people had to have been duped... How could they possibly have thought differently to you and your fellow remainers? (Given how clever and handsome and wealthy you are... hehe )

anonymous-user

53 months

Monday 18th December 2017
quotequote all
andymadmak said:
But then again, perhaps if the tragic murder of Jo Cox had not been shamelessly manipulated by the Remain camp the vote to leave might have been overwhelming. We will never know.
Wow. Just Wow. Jo Cox was murdered by a far right leaver, and a PH leaver twists that event to blame the remain camp. There really are no depths to which leavers will not descend.

London424

12,826 posts

174 months

Monday 18th December 2017
quotequote all
Breadvan72 said:
FT gets the last bit wrong -

FT said:
Economists for Brexit, a forecasting group, predicted that after a leave vote growth in GDP would expand 2.7 per cent in 2017. The Treasury expected a mild recession. Neither proved correct. The 2017 growth rate appears likely to slow to 1.5 per cent at a time when the global economy is strengthening.

According to economists such as Robert Chote, chairman of the independent Office for Budget Responsibility, which produces the official government forecasts, a more pressing question is to assess the impact compared with what would have happened had the vote gone the other way. “Many PhDs are going to be written on the impact of Brexit over the years to come,” he says.

This work has started, and includes a range of estimates calculated by the Financial Times suggesting that the value of Britain’s output is now around 0.9 per cent lower than was possible if the country had voted to stay in the EU. That equates to almost exactly £350m a week lost to the British economy — an irony that will not be lost on those who may have backed Leave because of the claim made on the side of the bus.
I disagree. The irony will be completely lost on those who voted leave because of the claim made on the bus.


https://www.ft.com/content/e3b29230-db5f-11e7-a039...


PS: a graphic. NB - a forecast.


The FT rofl

TOPIC CLOSED
TOPIC CLOSED