How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 2)

How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 2)

TOPIC CLOSED
TOPIC CLOSED
Author
Discussion

Gloria Slap

8,964 posts

205 months

Saturday 24th February 2018
quotequote all
It does appear as if the EU do not intend to shift position on SM a la carte.

This is what May and the Brexit away day team seems to be now pushing for but it is being mocked already as cake and eat it before she has even made her speech.

There will come a point soon that it will be clear we are facing a bland Canada FTA at best. The EU looks poised to be rather clear and blunt soon - UK can have x or y, no worries choose. And they can sit back and wait for May to cave in, like in Phase 1.

I see Dom Grieve is now saying the future well being of the country re Brexit is more important to him than the party and he will vote against May if required.





Deptford Draylons

10,480 posts

242 months

Saturday 24th February 2018
quotequote all
Gloria Slap said:
I see Dom Grieve is now saying the future well being of the country re Brexit is more important to him than the party and he will vote against May if required.
He is ? Never saw that coming....

CaptainSlow

13,179 posts

211 months

Saturday 24th February 2018
quotequote all
citizensm1th said:
don'tbesilly said:
Plenty of Londoners feel utter contempt for Khan, and surprisingly the reasons for the feelings have nothing to do with Brexit.
But not the voting majority.


Back to brexiteer ignorance.
But the majority of people didn't vote for him...see I can use the Toxics' tag line too.

don'tbesilly

13,900 posts

162 months

Saturday 24th February 2018
quotequote all
CaptainSlow said:
citizensm1th said:
don'tbesilly said:
Plenty of Londoners feel utter contempt for Khan, and surprisingly the reasons for the feelings have nothing to do with Brexit.
But not the voting majority.


Back to brexiteer ignorance.
But the majority of people didn't vote for him...see I can use the Toxics' tag line too.
It was close, not quite close enough to drive a red bus through, or arguably enough to call for a second election wink



anonymous-user

53 months

Saturday 24th February 2018
quotequote all
Gloria Slap said:
It does appear as if the EU do not intend to shift position on SM a la carte.

This is what May and the Brexit away day team seems to be now pushing for but it is being mocked already as cake and eat it before she has even made her speech.
They best have a word with Fraulein Merkel then, because she is saying what the UK wants is OK with her. https://youtu.be/y9vr1viKsYA?t=14m56s



jurbie

2,339 posts

200 months

Saturday 24th February 2018
quotequote all
Gloria Slap said:
It does appear as if the EU do not intend to shift position on SM a la carte.
This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone,what May is asking for undermines the very integrity of the single market and will leave it open for any country to demand the same level of access. The EU will never want to risk this as the single market and everything that underpins it is a central pillar of the EU. They'd rather take an economic hit then risk it and if that means throwing the UK under the bus because our leaders are too stupid to see this then so be it.



CaptainSlow

13,179 posts

211 months

Saturday 24th February 2018
quotequote all
don'tbesilly said:
CaptainSlow said:
citizensm1th said:
don'tbesilly said:
Plenty of Londoners feel utter contempt for Khan, and surprisingly the reasons for the feelings have nothing to do with Brexit.
But not the voting majority.


Back to brexiteer ignorance.
But the majority of people didn't vote for him...see I can use the Toxics' tag line too.
It was close, not quite close enough to drive a red bus through, or arguably enough to call for a second election wink
75% of the electorate and 90% of Londoners didn't want him. Therefore he shouldn't be Mayor.

Am I doing this right?


The Dangerous Elk

4,642 posts

76 months

Saturday 24th February 2018
quotequote all
jurbie said:
This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone,what May is asking for undermines the very integrity of the single market and will leave it open for any country to demand the same level of access. The EU will never want to risk this as the single market and everything that underpins it is a central pillar of the EU. They'd rather take an economic hit then risk it and if that means throwing the UK under the bus because our leaders are too stupid to see this then so be it.
Every and each of the FT agreements the EU has is unique.....

citizensm1th

8,371 posts

136 months

Saturday 24th February 2018
quotequote all
B'stard Child said:
citizensm1th said:
don'tbesilly said:
Plenty of Londoners feel utter contempt for Khan, and surprisingly the reasons for the feelings have nothing to do with Brexit.
But not the voting majority.
At the time of the election.......... Things change

Oh and one of the other candidates was Zac Goldsmith - FFS I'd vote for Kahn rather than that slimeball
Well that got the prolls chattering biggrin

powerstroke

10,283 posts

159 months

Saturday 24th February 2018
quotequote all
Deptford Draylons said:
He is ? Never saw that coming....
Follow the Money !!! you can bet some sinecure he will be in Jeopardy from Brexit !!!

davepoth

29,395 posts

198 months

Saturday 24th February 2018
quotequote all
As someone whose job is to put things in trucks and send them to other countries, I'm a little confused by the whole "a/the customs union" thing.

Many of the manic remainers seem to think that having a customs union will stop there from being a border with Ireland. They're wrong, unfortunately, on two counts. Firstly, there will be a border - there is now, it's just that it's difficult to see; what we're really talking about is physical infrastructure, like barbed wire, concrete barriers, flags, and so forth, that will hold up goods and people.

Secondly, the EU has a customs union with one other country at the moment - Turkey. Here's what it looks like on the frontier between Turkey and Greece at the main crossing.

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@40.9452809,26.31016...

Big physical border, raising barriers, men in peaked caps, the works.

This is for two reasons. Firstly, it's only a partial customs union - agricultural products still have duty so money has to change hands.

More importantly because Turkey isn't part of the Single Market, there have to be checks on origin (for all products) and there are specific checks on certain products - I work in the food industry and I know the Turkish authorities are very strict about making sure that any food that comes to Turkey meets their rules.

So a customs union (even "The" customs union) on its own would not eliminate physical border infrastructure with Ireland.

The UK government is almost ready with an IT system that will allow us to eliminate any border infrastructure on our side; based on what I know about it (it uses blockchain!) it will revolutionise global thinking about how customs services work.

The only people who are going to put literal barriers in the way of free trade are the EU, and they're doing it for no other reason than that they don't want to imagine that there's any better way of doing things than their way. It's deeply childish.

Mrr T

12,152 posts

264 months

Sunday 25th February 2018
quotequote all
davepoth said:
The UK government is almost ready with an IT system that will allow us to eliminate any border infrastructure on our side; based on what I know about it (it uses blockchain!) it will revolutionise global thinking about how customs services work.

The only people who are going to put literal barriers in the way of free trade are the EU, and they're doing it for no other reason than that they don't want to imagine that there's any better way of doing things than their way. It's deeply childish.
Even if the system is ready in time and HMRC are not confident. It does not eliminate border checks just makes it easier to complete and submit a declaration.

To make it work it's not just systems its people and inferstructure at the channel. None of which has even been started.

It also does not solve the Irish border.

ORD

18,086 posts

126 months

Sunday 25th February 2018
quotequote all
Mrr T said:
Even if the system is ready in time and HMRC are not confident. It does not eliminate border checks just makes it easier to complete and submit a declaration.

To make it work it's not just systems its people and inferstructure at the channel. None of which has even been started.

It also does not solve the Irish border.
Quite.

Brexiteers say two things that simply make no sense together.

(1) The EU is slow and inflexible.

(2) But it will of course bow to our demands and put in place bespoke arrangements that rely on new and untested technology.

Which is it?

The reality may soon start to sink in. Canada FTA is the most likely outcome, is horrible for the economy and is dreadful for Ireland.

davepoth

29,395 posts

198 months

Sunday 25th February 2018
quotequote all
Mrr T said:
davepoth said:
The UK government is almost ready with an IT system that will allow us to eliminate any border infrastructure on our side; based on what I know about it (it uses blockchain!) it will revolutionise global thinking about how customs services work.

The only people who are going to put literal barriers in the way of free trade are the EU, and they're doing it for no other reason than that they don't want to imagine that there's any better way of doing things than their way. It's deeply childish.
Even if the system is ready in time and HMRC are not confident. It does not eliminate border checks just makes it easier to complete and submit a declaration.

To make it work it's not just systems its people and inferstructure at the channel. None of which has even been started.

It also does not solve the Irish border.
I've sat in a room with HMRC and they've told me they're confident.

In terms of eliminating border checks, what they're doing does exactly that.

There is a concept of "Customs Free Zones"; that's an area of a country (normally next to a port) where goods can be taken without clearing them through customs for processing and storage. You might want to send them straight back out of the UK, in which case they never need to be cleared for import in the first place, but if you do decide you want to bring some or all of the goods into the UK for domestic consumption you import declare the goods from your own warehouse rather than at the border.

The innovation that HMRC are working on is to use technology to remove the geographic limitation - in effect, making the whole country a customs free zone. That would mean (for example) a truck crossing the Irish border destined for a warehouse with the necessary approval (it'll be AEO or something very similar to it) will not have to stop, or even slow down - the truck will just sail through the border with the numberplate checked by ANPR against a database of consignments.

If the goods need to come into the UK there's an accounting process to go through - but that's no harder than a VAT return, and does only get done periodically, not at the time of import.

Note that I didn't say "Irish" when I mentioned the border. The solution HMRC are working on is designed to be universal - a solution so good that there won't need to be anything special done for Ireland. There is no technological reason why it won't work, as it is just the use of existing technology in a novel way.

ORD

18,086 posts

126 months

Sunday 25th February 2018
quotequote all
davepoth said:
I've sat in a room with HMRC and they've told me they're confident.

In terms of eliminating border checks, what they're doing does exactly that.

There is a concept of "Customs Free Zones"; that's an area of a country (normally next to a port) where goods can be taken without clearing them through customs for processing and storage. You might want to send them straight back out of the UK, in which case they never need to be cleared for import in the first place, but if you do decide you want to bring some or all of the goods into the UK for domestic consumption you import declare the goods from your own warehouse rather than at the border.

The innovation that HMRC are working on is to use technology to remove the geographic limitation - in effect, making the whole country a customs free zone. That would mean (for example) a truck crossing the Irish border destined for a warehouse with the necessary approval (it'll be AEO or something very similar to it) will not have to stop, or even slow down - the truck will just sail through the border with the numberplate checked by ANPR against a database of consignments.

If the goods need to come into the UK there's an accounting process to go through - but that's no harder than a VAT return, and does only get done periodically, not at the time of import.

Note that I didn't say "Irish" when I mentioned the border. The solution HMRC are working on is designed to be universal - a solution so good that there won't need to be anything special done for Ireland. There is no technological reason why it won't work, as it is just the use of existing technology in a novel way.
Is this country good or even remotely competent when it comes to large scale public sector IT?

Rhetorical question. The U.K. is laughable at this stuff.

amusingduck

9,396 posts

135 months

Sunday 25th February 2018
quotequote all
ORD said:
Is this country good or even remotely competent when it comes to large scale public sector IT?

Rhetorical question. The U.K. is laughable at this stuff.
https://www.gov.uk/

richie99

1,116 posts

185 months

Sunday 25th February 2018
quotequote all
Mrr T said:
davepoth said:
The UK government is almost ready with an IT system that will allow us to eliminate any border infrastructure on our side; based on what I know about it (it uses blockchain!) it will revolutionise global thinking about how customs services work.

The only people who are going to put literal barriers in the way of free trade are the EU, and they're doing it for no other reason than that they don't want to imagine that there's any better way of doing things than their way. It's deeply childish.
Even if the system is ready in time and HMRC are not confident. It does not eliminate border checks just makes it easier to complete and submit a declaration.

To make it work it's not just systems its people and inferstructure at the channel. None of which has even been started.

It also does not solve the Irish border.
I admire DPs optimism but the U.K. Government is not ‘almost ready with an IT system’.

mx5nut

5,404 posts

81 months

Sunday 25th February 2018
quotequote all
davepoth said:
The UK government is almost ready with an IT system that will allow us to eliminate any border infrastructure on our side; based on what I know about it (it uses blockchain!) it will revolutionise global thinking about how customs services work.
I've seen some delusion from Leave supporters on these pages, but putting all your faith in a government IT project being delivered on time and working properly might be the best one yet laugh

barryrs

4,376 posts

222 months

Sunday 25th February 2018
quotequote all
I know nothing of such things however my interpretation of Dave’s post that this has been coming for some time and not commissioned immediately post leave?

powerstroke

10,283 posts

159 months

Sunday 25th February 2018
quotequote all
mx5nut said:
davepoth said:
The UK government is almost ready with an IT system that will allow us to eliminate any border infrastructure on our side; based on what I know about it (it uses blockchain!) it will revolutionise global thinking about how customs services work.
I've seen some delusion from Leave supporters on these pages, but putting all your faith in a government IT project being delivered on time and working properly might be the best one yet laugh
So I would guess you would prefer the Eu to erect a border ??
TOPIC CLOSED
TOPIC CLOSED