Elon Musk and his $55 BILLION dollar gamble
Discussion
I think he, or I should say his more recent projects, are a bit far fetched. I don't see hyperloop being a large scale success and I don't think he will be going to Mars any time soon.
Tesla made a loss for something like 4 years running, and its current profit is propped up by the sale of green credits in the USA. I don't think the cars have a bright future as the competition are now catching up and the BIK benefits of having an electric car are eroding away. I think that's going to be a problem, at least in the UK because of the two people I know with Teslas, they both bought them through their companies to take advantage of the BIK relief on electric cars.
I'm not anti Musk but I don't think he's the brilliant mind some portions of the media make him out to be.
Tesla made a loss for something like 4 years running, and its current profit is propped up by the sale of green credits in the USA. I don't think the cars have a bright future as the competition are now catching up and the BIK benefits of having an electric car are eroding away. I think that's going to be a problem, at least in the UK because of the two people I know with Teslas, they both bought them through their companies to take advantage of the BIK relief on electric cars.
I'm not anti Musk but I don't think he's the brilliant mind some portions of the media make him out to be.
Chainsaw Rebuild said:
I'm not anti Musk but I don't think he's the brilliant mind some portions of the media make him out to be.
I think he is an interesting figure that the media can easily latch on to, a billionaire building stuff to indulge his dreams is an entertaining distraction from the greyness of the world. He certainly seems to be a brilliant mind compared to the self-proclaimed genius occupying the White House.Tesla has very cleverly created consumer demand and forced other manufacturers to invest into EV while developing the infrastructure and battery tech.
It really is genius.
As the real car manufacturers catch up with their EV tech I think we will see them partner with a manufacturer who can help them with mass production and in turn get access to their infrastructure.
It really is genius.
As the real car manufacturers catch up with their EV tech I think we will see them partner with a manufacturer who can help them with mass production and in turn get access to their infrastructure.
Rich_W said:
Tesla is doomed!
A while ago Mercedes had a tech partnership with Tesla for their electric cars. IIRC supplying the motors themselves.
They apparently no longer have that arrangement. And yet they still have hybrid/electric cars for sale. Elon has forgotten that your competitors will backward engineer your product and make it themselves.
He can put all his chips on "Model 3" But it's already years behind schedule and the major players will be undercutting it and making a better product by then.
In 10 years time Tesla will have gone. IMO
Tesla gave away all the ip some time ago. They want everyone else to catch up so they can sell them batteries and access to their infrastructure.A while ago Mercedes had a tech partnership with Tesla for their electric cars. IIRC supplying the motors themselves.
They apparently no longer have that arrangement. And yet they still have hybrid/electric cars for sale. Elon has forgotten that your competitors will backward engineer your product and make it themselves.
He can put all his chips on "Model 3" But it's already years behind schedule and the major players will be undercutting it and making a better product by then.
In 10 years time Tesla will have gone. IMO
Musk will be firing buildings into space by then.
RobDickinson said:
TooMany2cvs said:
<raises eyebrows>
Really...?
Yep I think so Really...?
Reusable orbital rockets and rocket ship ev Road cars. Both a significant impact on the modern world
The only thing the Model S does differently to any other EVs was have a lot more generic cells in the battery - and better
TooMany2cvs said:
RobDickinson said:
TooMany2cvs said:
<raises eyebrows>
Really...?
Yep I think so Really...?
Reusable orbital rockets and rocket ship ev Road cars. Both a significant impact on the modern world
The only thing the Model S does differently to any other EVs was have a lot more generic cells in the battery - and better
Its not comparable to landing SpaceX's first stage and the implications.
Troubleatmill said:
I genuinely cant think of anyone else that launched a rocket into space - and successfully landed it back on a launching pad.
Well Bert Rutan beat him to it with Space Ship 1, but hasn't really manage to capitalise on it yet. Jeff Bezos New Shephard 3 was the first vertical launch and landing craft to go to space and back, and he's got a new version due to test next year for manned suborbital flights.
I think both of them are a way behind SpaceX though as they're focussing on suborbital tourist flights rather than achieving orbit, but Bezos next one, New Glenn, is supposed to make orbit, but is still a few years away.
Though to be really pedantic, has Musk actually done it? The Falcon's first stage separates around 80km, but I'm not sure if it breaks the 100km Karman line before returning.
(Sorry, been playing Kerbal Space Programme too much
)p1stonhead said:
As far as I know, the shuttle being able to land as it did made it extremely flawed in other areas and insanely expensive compared to normal rocket deliveries to space.
Its not comparable to landing SpaceX's first stage and the implications.
I didn’t realise space x was being developed in the late 70’s alongside the shuttle development Its not comparable to landing SpaceX's first stage and the implications.
more like nasa let him do that whilst they do something really exciting like plan a proper mars mission 
Chainsaw Rebuild said:
Is it just me that thinks Musk is wildly over hyped?
No, but then everyone who does is wrong in my opinion.You can criticise the self-promotion etc (his cameo in Iron Man 2 was a nod to him being the real life Tony Stark) but what he's actually done in the field of engineering is outstanding.
He's built a private space program...you know that joke about "it ain't rocket science" well that doesn't apply to him or his team. They've done stuff that NASA/ESA/Russia/China couldn't or wouldn't do.
He's started a global car company from scratch.
He's advancing battery and solar technology faster than anyone else - Tesla have supplied solar farms and battery arrays capable of feeding small towns / cities.
I have met and worked with some of the guys that used to work for him at SpaceX - their attitude to any problem is "we can solve this". They couldn't find a bit of kit to model airflow in a low pressure environments so they designed and built a rig from scratch. NASA were so impressed they asked to borrow it as they hadn't thought of a rig like it and couldn't afford to buy/build one.
Above all, he's making engineering exciting again - engineers and universities all over the world are taking up the Hyperloop challenge, he's effectively crowd-sourcing some of the design work for free (payoff comes when commercial systems go online) but it's on a promise of making the world better and that's what is interesting the youth of today. That's a little overblown and grandiose but I genuinely believe he's in it to benefit all.
Troubleatmill said:
I genuinely cant think of anyone else that launched a rocket into space - and successfully landed it back on a launching pad.
It is a game changer - and I do hope we start thinking about how we get the human race living beyond this planet.
The Falcon Heavy Lift will launch soon. Its 3 rockets strapped together which will separate and land. The payload is a Tesla Roadster that will be put into mars orbitIt is a game changer - and I do hope we start thinking about how we get the human race living beyond this planet.
As Musk puts it "Destination is Mars orbit. Will be in deep space for a billion years or so if it doesn’t blow up on ascent"
p1stonhead said:
As far as I know, the shuttle being able to land as it did made it extremely flawed in other areas and insanely expensive compared to normal rocket deliveries to space.
Its not comparable to landing SpaceX's first stage and the implications.
The space shuttle had a much wider remit than to get some junk into space. It was an incredible feat of engineering. (With a renewable first stage and renewable major element)Its not comparable to landing SpaceX's first stage and the implications.
There are plenty of viable cheap alternatives to what musk has to offer if your remit is to get some junk into space cheaply.
98elise said:
The Falcon Heavy Lift will launch soon. Its 3 rockets strapped together which will separate and land. The payload is a Tesla Roadster that will be put into mars orbit
As Musk puts it "Destination is Mars orbit. Will be in deep space for a billion years or so if it doesn’t blow up on ascent"
So about 25 years after nasa sent something to mars then As Musk puts it "Destination is Mars orbit. Will be in deep space for a billion years or so if it doesn’t blow up on ascent"
loose cannon said:
98elise said:
The Falcon Heavy Lift will launch soon. Its 3 rockets strapped together which will separate and land. The payload is a Tesla Roadster that will be put into mars orbit
As Musk puts it "Destination is Mars orbit. Will be in deep space for a billion years or so if it doesn’t blow up on ascent"
So about 25 years after nasa sent something to mars then As Musk puts it "Destination is Mars orbit. Will be in deep space for a billion years or so if it doesn’t blow up on ascent"
p1stonhead said:
The fact people are comparing him to NASA speaks volumes to be honest.
Yes - about how little they understand the commercial space business, and how in awe of St Elon they are.NASA have been using SpaceX - and others - as couriers for the ISS for near-on a decade, to do the jobs they cba to do themselves, because they've got bigger and better things to do with their time.
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