The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 3)

The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 3)

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Discussion

don'tbesilly

13,900 posts

162 months

Saturday 11th August 2018
quotequote all
Roboraver said:
Hey don't shoot the messenger, just posting facts mind:

Meanwhile, mostly under the radar, shipping insurers start to move away from Lloyd’s

http://www.seatrade-maritime.com/news/europe/greec...


Do you read the articles that you post links to, or is it just the headline you read?

http://www.internationalinvestment.net/brexit/hsbc...

Article said:
HSBC has not yet begun transferring any of the up to 1,000 staff it has said could ultimately move to its French unit from Britain, chief executive John Flint told Reuters.
http://www.seatrade-maritime.com/news/europe/greece-eyes-larger-insurance-role-as-hard-brexit-looms.html

Article said:
With a hard Brexit looming, the London Insurance and International Brokers Association (LIIBA) said Athens and Piraeus are among cities London insurance brokers could consider for European Union subsidiaries.
You mentioned facts in the op above, can you stick to them.




dandarez

13,246 posts

282 months

Saturday 11th August 2018
quotequote all
Roboraver said:
Hey don't shoot the messenger, just posting facts mind:
Yeah. Facts. rolleyes

'Just wait until the big manufacturers, Airbus, Nissan, Honda, Toyota begin to make moves to relocate
and middle income earners have their jobs threatened. It won’t be pretty.'

dandarez

13,246 posts

282 months

Saturday 11th August 2018
quotequote all
Murph7355 said:
REALIST123 said:
Your mention of the Japanese car brands got me thinking, as my impression is that they aren’t too popular in mainland Europe.

It appears Honda sales throughout the EU members have declined steadily over the past 10 years and are now less than 45% of what they were in 2010.

Also, 38% of Hondas EU sales are to the UK.

Why would they relocate to where they are clearly not wanted?
Because they were upset we didn't vote to Remain?

Or possibly Gloria's off canvassing them since he finished with Nissan biggrin
I don't come in here so often now, but where is Slasher, has he skedaddled?

Crackie

6,386 posts

241 months

Saturday 11th August 2018
quotequote all
Roboraver said:
Hey don't shoot the messenger, just posting facts mind:

Meanwhile, mostly under the radar, shipping insurers start to move away from Lloyd’s

http://www.seatrade-maritime.com/news/europe/greec...
Possibly you have some similar factual links?

# Plagues of locusts

# Rivers turning to blood

# The sky falling

alfie2244

11,292 posts

187 months

Saturday 11th August 2018
quotequote all
dandarez said:
Murph7355 said:
REALIST123 said:
Your mention of the Japanese car brands got me thinking, as my impression is that they aren’t too popular in mainland Europe.

It appears Honda sales throughout the EU members have declined steadily over the past 10 years and are now less than 45% of what they were in 2010.

Also, 38% of Hondas EU sales are to the UK.

Why would they relocate to where they are clearly not wanted?
Because they were upset we didn't vote to Remain?

Or possibly Gloria's off canvassing them since he finished with Nissan biggrin
I don't come in here so often now, but where is Slasher, has he skedaddled?
Weekends are just not the same without him.

Murph7355

37,651 posts

255 months

Sunday 12th August 2018
quotequote all
dandarez said:
I don't come in here so often now, but where is Slasher, has he skedaddled?
I think he lost his/her password again down the back of the sofa.

Fortunately in the enlightened times we now live in, he has plenty of other self identification egos he can use.

anonymous-user

53 months

Sunday 12th August 2018
quotequote all
Roboraver said:
Hey don't shoot the messenger, just posting facts mind:

Meanwhile, mostly under the radar, shipping insurers start to move away from Lloyd’s

http://www.seatrade-maritime.com/news/europe/greec...
Lloyds has already set up a company in Brussels to handle post Brexit EU business.
Many other insurers have done similar, in different EU countries.

Vanden Saab

13,891 posts

73 months

Tuesday 14th August 2018
quotequote all
Interesting figures out today.... Unemployment at its lowest level (4%) for over 43 years. Pay rises at 2.7% comfortably higher than inflation at 2.4%. and productivity up by 1.5% the highest increase since 2016. The number of UK nationals working increased by 332,000 in the last 3 months and over 100,000 people stopped working zero hours contracts. Oh and 86,000 fewer EU nationals are working in the UK compared to 3 months ago.

don'tbesilly

13,900 posts

162 months

Tuesday 14th August 2018
quotequote all
Vanden Saab said:
Interesting figures out today.... Unemployment at its lowest level (4%) for over 43 years. Pay rises at 2.7% comfortably higher than inflation at 2.4%. and productivity up by 1.5% the highest increase since 2016. The number of UK nationals working increased by 332,000 in the last 3 months and over 100,000 people stopped working zero hours contracts. Oh and 86,000 fewer EU nationals are working in the UK compared to 3 months ago.
Incredible given the prediction of the Remain campaign (Cameron/Osborne/Carney et al) that on a vote to leave being the outcome of the 2016 referendum the UK would suffer a recession in Qtr 3 of the same year resulting in mass unemployment.

Quite a spectacular recovery wink

loafer123

15,404 posts

214 months

Tuesday 14th August 2018
quotequote all

And all whilst retail is rapidly losing jobs.

Impressive indeed.

The Dangerous Elk

4,642 posts

76 months

Tuesday 14th August 2018
quotequote all
we are fking doomed then. (as it will be reported by some)

Transmitter Man

4,253 posts

223 months

Wednesday 15th August 2018
quotequote all
loafer123 said:
And all whilst retail is rapidly losing jobs.

Impressive indeed.
May I rephrase that;

And all whilst retail is rapidly losing jobs in the high street as more people shop online.

This probably goes for the majority of countries in the developed world.

Phil

captain_cynic

11,873 posts

94 months

Wednesday 15th August 2018
quotequote all
loafer123 said:
Impressive indeed.
Yep, pound is sagging, inflation is rising and cost of living has increased.

Far in excess of our neighbours and contemporaries.


barryrs

4,376 posts

222 months

Wednesday 15th August 2018
quotequote all
With wages up 2.7% also is there a net loss for the average person?

Kccv23highliftcam

1,783 posts

74 months

Wednesday 15th August 2018
quotequote all
barryrs said:
With wages up 2.7% also is there a net loss for the average person?
@1.419 per litre you bet!

Still, all is fine in Londonium....

barryrs

4,376 posts

222 months

Wednesday 15th August 2018
quotequote all
Kccv23highliftcam said:
@1.419 per litre you bet!

Still, all is fine in Londonium....
That’s motorway service prices round here eek

don'tbesilly

13,900 posts

162 months

Wednesday 15th August 2018
quotequote all
Kccv23highliftcam said:
barryrs said:
With wages up 2.7% also is there a net loss for the average person?
@1.419 per litre you bet!

Still, all is fine in Londonium....
Nearest to me:

BP/Shell & Tesco

£1.31 Diesel
£1.29 Petrol

loafer123

15,404 posts

214 months

Monday 20th August 2018
quotequote all

Before the vote, I gave the future impacts of AI and Robotics as a key reason why we should want to control our own borders as unemployed workers migrate to find work as AI takes their jobs.

Good to see the Bank of England has finally caught up, even if they can't see the Brexit benefit;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45240758

stongle

5,910 posts

161 months

Monday 20th August 2018
quotequote all
loafer123 said:
Before the vote, I gave the future impacts of AI and Robotics as a key reason why we should want to control our own borders as unemployed workers migrate to find work as AI takes their jobs.

Good to see the Bank of England has finally caught up, even if they can't see the Brexit benefit;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45240758
The BOE, FCA and government in general have been exceptionally accommodating and supportive of AI and future tech in this space for some time. Technology disruption / disintermediation of Fin Services is expected to a lessor / greater degree (depends whom you talk to) - we have to be encouraging its development and incubation in UK PLC. We need a white paper on how the Govt will support this (and how much £££ they are going to do it with) + a reverse in private sector investment to make the best of this exit scenario. What's the export value of this tech is, difficult to know. Blockchain (DLT) proponents say reduction in process benefits (frictional cost) of this tech are >$1tr p.a. - unfortunately people are a big part of the cost.

In particular private DLTs will revolutionise trade finance / banking. We want to be at the fore front of this innovation to help fund the displaced employees whose jobs have been replaced. Whether we can (or want) to do a country level San Francisco economic model is open to debate. We'll 100% be getting the increase in fentanyl abuse, regardless.

What's interesting - unless there is some lag on the reporting; the BoE (which I guess is supposed to be independent); is working counter to the government on promoting stability. It would be nice if Haldane's piece is accompanied with a plan from the DWP or Technology ministry (do we have one?). Sorta along the lines, "good point Andy, but we've kinda thought of that. Et voila here's our plan to promote innovation".

loafer123

15,404 posts

214 months

Monday 20th August 2018
quotequote all
stongle said:
The BOE, FCA and government in general have been exceptionally accommodating and supportive of AI and future tech in this space for some time. Technology disruption / disintermediation of Fin Services is expected to a lessor / greater degree (depends whom you talk to) - we have to be encouraging its development and incubation in UK PLC. We need a white paper on how the Govt will support this (and how much £££ they are going to do it with) + a reverse in private sector investment to make the best of this exit scenario. What's the export value of this tech is, difficult to know. Blockchain (DLT) proponents say reduction in process benefits (frictional cost) of this tech are >$1tr p.a. - unfortunately people are a big part of the cost.

In particular private DLTs will revolutionise trade finance / banking. We want to be at the fore front of this innovation to help fund the displaced employees whose jobs have been replaced. Whether we can (or want) to do a country level San Francisco economic model is open to debate. We'll 100% be getting the increase in fentanyl abuse, regardless.

What's interesting - unless there is some lag on the reporting; the BoE (which I guess is supposed to be independent); is working counter to the government on promoting stability. It would be nice if Haldane's piece is accompanied with a plan from the DWP or Technology ministry (do we have one?). Sorta along the lines, "good point Andy, but we've kinda thought of that. Et voila here's our plan to promote innovation".
We certainly can't avoid it, so might as well develop it here, rather than being a taker of technology from abroad.

I am an optimist to a degree - innovation will bring forward new types of job we can't imagine yet - but nevertheless, this will be a time when you want to pick and choose who comes in.