How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 3)

[The Dangerous Elk]

Deptford Draylons said:

Come on Remainers, someone say ' but Dan Hannan said '.

or, fill in the bank

"...but...what about the - - - "

[alfie2244]

Gloria Slap said:

More Jurgen japery.

https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2018/04/23/replies-guard...

Classic replies. There is a theme...... LOL

You need someone to hug Glo?

[loafer123]

I see Verhofstadt is suggesting an Association Agreement.

Seems sensible on the face of it...well trodden path and flexible.

Perhaps we could simply revert to our 1955 one?

[Gloria Slap]

These brexit guys are really on their game, Theresa can't even get this right....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/24/u...

Could they have screwed this negotiation up any more?

It's like they are pretending to want brexit but doing everything to force a check vote.

Snowflakes - do not click link:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/bre...

[turbobloke]

Gloria Slap said:

These brexit guys are really on their game, Theresa can't even get this right....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/24/u...

Possibly so, but the thing is, nobody at the NAO has the authority to take a decision on who gets paid what and when. It's also something that hasn't yet happened so as with all such things we'll need to wait and see - and if agreement is reached we'll never know what would have been paid (or not) if there ws no agreement.

Gloria Slap said:

Could they have screwed this negotiation up any more? e

Of course!

As to what Labour's leader in Brussels thinks, so what - you might as well ask the milk monitor in a kindergarten class.

Lots of impotent people who want to be important people will stir the pot and say all sorts of things are 'possible'.

Things that were once possible include a vote to Leave resulting in the end of western political civilisation as we know it, a year-long recession with the loss of 600,000 jobs (or whatever the total was) and a pronto presto emergency budget with £30bn of tax hikes and spending cuts. They were all possible but they didn't happen.

Edited by turbobloke on Wednesday 25th April 23:00

[Tuna]

Gloria Slap said:

These brexit guys are really on their game, Theresa can't even get this right....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/24/u...

Could the Guardian jump though hoops any more just to be outraged? Their argument appears to be "If we agree to pay the bill, then we will have to pay the bill... in direct contradiction to Ms May who said we'd only pay the bill if we agreed to pay the bill".

You are far too reliant on that newspaper for your opinions you know Let's not even start on the (not very) Independent.

[alfie2244]

Gloria Slap said:

These brexit guys are really on their game, Theresa can't even get this right....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/24/u...

Could they have screwed this negotiation up any more?

It's like they are pretending to want brexit but doing everything to force a check vote.

Snowflakes - do not click link:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/bre...

Slasher still moaning I see.... Corbett an EU insider, worked for Herman Van Rompuy, helped the ‘Yes’ campaign on Ireland’s referendum on the Lisbon treaty and led the youth wing of the Union of European Federalists.....hardly impartial is he?

[Gloria Slap]

May said no deal we don't pay.

Its not true.

Either she lied or is incompetent.

It weakens her hand in negotiation, you should be bothered by this reckless approach. Don't you love your country? lol

[turbobloke]

Gloria Slap said:

May said no deal we don't pay.

Its not true.

It's speculation at this stage.

[Murph7355]

Gloria Slap said:

May said no deal we don't pay.

Its not true.

Either she lied or is incompetent.

It weakens her hand in negotiation, you should be bothered by this reckless approach. Don't you love your country? lol

You think Jurgen Klopp thinking Brexit makes no sense is meaningful, no doubt weakening her hand too.

All it proves is that you're a bit of a plum.

[Gloria Slap]

turbobloke said:

Gloria Slap said:

May said no deal we don't pay.

Its not true.

It's speculation at this stage.

Its the opinion of the comptroller and auditor general of the National Audit Office, ex-global managing partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers.

Still, why listen to the view of such a moron when we can bask in the full majesty of what the PistonHams reckon?

[Gloria Slap]

Murph7355 said:

You think Jurgen Klopp thinking Brexit makes no sense is meaningful, no doubt weakening her hand too.

All it proves is that you're a bit of a plum.

Another poster familiar with how the EU views things explained clearly why Klopp may hold such a view and it can be entirely valid.

It is wonderfully ironic to hear about "informed brexiteers who can see the opposing view" demonstrate in spades how they can't actually do that at all. Plums indeed.

[powerstroke]

Gloria Slap said:

Another poster familiar with how the EU views things explained clearly why Klopp may hold such a view and it can be entirely valid.

It is wonderfully ironic to hear about "informed brexiteers who can see the opposing view" demonstrate in spades how they can't actually do that at all. Plums indeed.

Promise us you will keep posting and more guardian ,indy quotes and puff pieces from remnants and gravy train riders too please .....

[Vanden Saab]

Gloria Slap said:

May said no deal we don't pay.

Its not true.

Either she lied or is incompetent.

It weakens her hand in negotiation, you should be bothered by this reckless approach. Don't you love your country? lol

Having you late evening rant love? feel better now? Awwww nite nite...

[davepoth]

Gloria Slap said:

Either she lied or is incompetent.

There's only one incompetent person around here, and her name is Gloria...

Due to the timing issues, there will likely be two deals. Firstly, the withdrawal deal which will be the one in which we will have to pay money. Secondly, the trade deal.

The withdrawal deal will probably contain some detail as to the future trading arrangements, but I'm not hopeful that it will be finished before October - more likely it will take most of the transition period.

The reasoning is that we could sign the withdrawal deal and then potentially not sign a trade deal afterwards. While technically a possibility it's unlikely that we would never sign a trade deal with the EU. The big question is when.

[Ridgemont]

davepoth said:

Gloria Slap said:

Either she lied or is incompetent.

There's only one incompetent person around here, and her name is Gloria...

Due to the timing issues, there will likely be two deals. Firstly, the withdrawal deal which will be the one in which we will have to pay money. Secondly, the trade deal.

The withdrawal deal will probably contain some detail as to the future trading arrangements, but I'm not hopeful that it will be finished before October - more likely it will take most of the transition period.

The reasoning is that we could sign the withdrawal deal and then potentially not sign a trade deal afterwards. While technically a possibility it's unlikely that we would never sign a trade deal with the EU. The big question is when.

I’m not sure even the NAO assessment is correct:

As noted in the Institute for gov’s Page on the bill:

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explaine...

IFG said:

The financial deal is an integral part of the withdrawal settlement that also includes the agreement on transition, so reneging on the financial deal would mean leaving the EU with no transition arrangements in place. Future UK compliance will be overseen by the governance arrangements agreed as part of the withdrawal treaty.

If negotiations broke down later this year, and the UK refused to pay, the EU might seek redress through the International Court of Justice or the Permanent Court of Arbitration, both located in The Hague. The result of such a court case would be hard to predict.

Needless to say as you note the scenario that leads to that would have to be catastrophic but can be imagined: Ireland, Ireland and Ireland. A failure around the Irish border is currently likely in which case I would imagine frantic efforts by both Whitehall and Brussels to pony up a WTO based minimal agreement to allow something that could be passed to the national parliaments & the Euro Parliament and not lead to a catastrophic EU budget disaster and an U.K. trade disaster.
Then of course we get into whether Corbyn and the Tory rebels would shoot that down. Or for that matter the Walloon parliament or whatever inane local talking shop of your choice. In *that* scenario it would be feasible that all bets are off and the gov withholds the payment (if scuppered on the EU side).

it is feasible that May might refuse to pay but as we saw with Ceta the EU would be under all sorts of pressure to get something through. Of course if Corbyn and chums played silly buggers in the HoP and shot down that agreement likewise all hell would break out. No agreement, no TA, UK falls out into extreme WTO and labour commit political suicide.

Either way the scenario where the money doesn’t get paid for everything is unlikely. But it’s not a certainty unlike the NAO’s assessment.

[Skywalker]

davepoth said:

...

Due to the timing issues, there will likely be two deals. Firstly, the withdrawal deal which will be the one in which we will have to pay money. Secondly, the trade deal.

The withdrawal deal will probably contain some detail as to the future trading arrangements, but I'm not hopeful that it will be finished before October - more likely it will take most of the transition period.

The reasoning is that we could sign the withdrawal deal and then potentially not sign a trade deal afterwards. While technically a possibility it's unlikely that we would never sign a trade deal with the EU. The big question is when.

And it is here where the beautiful irony doth lay.
In having the Island of Ireland border issue as part of the first part, when it relates clearly to the trading arrangement with Eire (and therefore an EU member state),

So,, it seems to my humble brain that insisting on a definitive position on the trading arrangements post exit, whilst explicitly not talking about the trading arrangements is a little disengenuous. A bit of a conundrum.

The pre-existing CTA between RoI and U.K. was bilateral, as in fact was the Belfast Agreement / Good Friday Agreement - so it is a shame that this cannot be amicably addressed, and perhaps even having a non-Schengen / British Isles partnership.

Will any change lead to the return of dissident republicans? Well, they are still there and active, still murdering a posing a threat to folk - it just doesn’t hit the London-centric MSM because heaven forbid that the truth of the matter is reported.

[Gloria Slap]

Ridgemont said:

Needless to say as you note the scenario that leads to that would have to be catastrophic but can be imagined: Ireland, Ireland and Ireland. A failure around the Irish border is currently likely in which case I would imagine frantic efforts by both Whitehall and Brussels to pony up a WTO based minimal agreement to allow something that could be passed to the national parliaments & the Euro Parliament and not lead to a catastrophic EU budget disaster and an U.K. trade disaster.
Then of course we get into whether Corbyn and the Tory rebels would shoot that down. Or for that matter the Walloon parliament or whatever inane local talking shop of your choice. In *that* scenario it would be feasible that all bets are off and the gov withholds the payment (if scuppered on the EU side).

it is feasible that May might refuse to pay but as we saw with Ceta the EU would be under all sorts of pressure to get something through. Of course if Corbyn and chums played silly buggers in the HoP and shot down that agreement likewise all hell would break out. No agreement, no TA, UK falls out into extreme WTO and labour commit political suicide.

Either way the scenario where the money doesn’t get paid for everything is unlikely. But it’s not a certainty unlike the NAO’s assessment.

IFG say if we refuse the EU will likely take us to court.

The NAO assessement is broadly saying a sinilar thing.

The fact that the IFG say it would go to court is an admission that we can't just walk away.

So May is incompetent trying to threaten we can. Hopeless negotiating. Its like they are begging for a check vote.

Corbett makes a good case; is there a clip of kipper Batten moaning about it too?

EU have boxed her in on NI border - perhaps she can offer to lend the EU our Home Office IT skills and set up an iphone app to do DIY ANPR on the NI border. Thats the kind of talent that is being relied on now to deliver a deal......

[Murph7355]

Gloria Slap said:

Murph7355 said:

You think Jurgen Klopp thinking Brexit makes no sense is meaningful, no doubt weakening her hand too.

All it proves is that you're a bit of a plum.

Another poster familiar with how the EU views things explained clearly why Klopp may hold such a view and it can be entirely valid.

It is wonderfully ironic to hear about "informed brexiteers who can see the opposing view" demonstrate in spades how they can't actually do that at all. Plums indeed.

I do not regard all Remain voters in the same way. Pretty much just you at present - you're an idiot or a troll or both. I don't ignore the opposing view, just cretinous ones (whether for Leave or Remain).

Where Brexit is concerned, immigrants views are less of a priority than nationals. When said immigrant believes Merkel seems to have all the answers, it will impact my view of his opinion.

[powerstroke]

Gloria Slap said:

IFG say if we refuse the EU will likely take us to court.

The NAO assessement is broadly saying a sinilar thing.

The fact that the IFG say it would go to court is an admission that we can't just walk away.

So May is incompetent trying to threaten we can. Hopeless negotiating. Its like they are begging for a check vote.

Corbett makes a good case; is there a clip of kipper Batten moaning about it too?

EU have boxed her in on NI border - perhaps she can offer to lend the EU our Home Office IT skills and set up an iphone app to do DIY ANPR on the NI border. Thats the kind of talent that is being relied on now to deliver a deal......

Wot no guardian link ... come on get a grip ...