Is this the last tory government

[skwdenyer]

Coolbanana said:

It is true that the UK's Representative system means you have to rely upon others to elect your MEP's but not so for other Member States who elect directly.

One point of order: we do directly elect our MEPs.

[skwdenyer]

EddieSteadyGo said:

skwdenyer said:

If May can't get her vote through, her only sensible choice is a second referendum, announced immediately. A GE would be too divisive and long-winded. A "Brexit PM" has no better chance of getting a vote through Parliament than May does.

At least this time around the electorate could have some sense of the options...

I agree with your first point - bearing in mind the numbers in the Commons, if May's proposal doesn't pass, then a second ref is the only logical option to resolve the parliamentary logjam.

However, I would advise caution assuming a second GE wouldn't also happen.

Let's imagine what happens if May's deal is defeated. The first part is easy - May will be gone. Next decision is to stop the clock to allow time for a 2nd ref. To do this we would either need to withdraw A50 or get it extended. Withdrawing A50 is the better option - it resets the clock, requires no agreement from anyone else, and means no concessions can be extracted by either the EU commission or other member states.

However, withdrawing A50 is politically "difficult" due to the shrill cries of betrayal which will come from the brexit loons. So this could only be done if there was a 'trusted' Brexiteer as PM. If it were someone like Javid, I would expect it would be just extended, with agreement from the other EU members.

So before you can pick the right option, you need to get a replacement Brexit, Tory MP elected as PM, PDQ. On that basis, I would probably expect a shortened leadership election. As things stand I would expect Boris to win that election, although it could be Davis, with an outside chance of Raab (who could be my choice, if I was voting).

So now you have the clock still ticking, a Brexit PM, and an urgent need to stop the clock to allow some time. At this point the PM will need to choose whether to try and rescind A50 or delay it in agreement with the EU.

Also important at this stage - it will be imperative for the incoming PM to sweep away every single last remnant of May's premiership - so all preferred ministers, all advisers, senior civil servants like Olly Robbins. Anyone, or anything, associated closely with May will be toxic.

Next comes the second ref. If this starts to look likely it is going to cause a LOT of recriminations - someone will need to get the blame for 'why we are where we are'. May will get her fair share of course, but the Tories will need to get Corbyn and the Labour front bench on the hook for their fair share of the blame too.

This is where a second GE comes in. Labour won't move a confidence vote in the government unless they will be sure of winning it. But they might try and move a 2nd ref vote. So I can see how the new PM might try and engineer a set of circumstances where Labour get the "blame" for a 2nd ref but which the Conservatives go along with. A GE called at the right time would help create the necessary circumstances and confusion to ensure the blame gets attributed in the "right" place.

So I'm not saying another GE is absolutely necessary, but it might be useful for the PM to use the opportunity it creates . After all, the new PM doesn't have much to lose - they don't have a majority, and it is going to become increasingly painful to continue letting the DUP hold the whip hand.

The reason I don't think a GE is such a great idea is that whoever proposes a delay (rather than certainty, either way) should (in an ideal world) get thrashed. We simply can't have more years of uncertainty like the last 2. We'll have no economy left to speak of by then...

If May immediately calls a 2nd ref, she gets to pre-empt a confidence motion (internal or Parliamentary) by saying that the electorate must be consulted as just promised. Anyone trying to pull the rug out from under that risks being tarred with the brush of being scared of the electorate - something they tend not to take too kindly too (the electorate that is).

Whether a 2nd ref or a GE, it will be acrimonious and divisive, as a GE will be a proxy referendum of sorts.

The only peaceful outcome I can envisage right now is no Brexit - yes, there will be those who feel betrayed, but I suspect a surprising number who voted Leave will in fact be a bit relieved. It only needs to be positioned as an attempt to stem the risks and looses of the last 2+ years. If the PM can line up some major announcements of new investment from multinationals and perhaps a "sop" budget then so much the better.

At the same time, a package of electoral reforms wouldn't go amiss. And getting our EU cousins to agree to a process of reforms of EU operations and governance would be the icing on the cake.

Is this wishful thinking? Perhaps a little but, but I'm genuinely struggling to see any benefit - or electoral maths - in any other course.

[The Dangerous Elk]

I am sorry, not you or anybody else (MP's, Eu, HoLords etc) will not throw away my vote nor that of the majority's of UK's voters.

[skwdenyer]

The Dangerous Elk said:

I am sorry, not you or anybody else (MP's, Eu, HoLords etc) will not throw away my vote nor that of the majority's of UK's voters.

I'm in no position to throw away your vote, as you put it.

For my own clarity, are you ok with a "hard Brexit" on 29th March?

[Smollet]

the tribester said:

amgmcqueen said:

How much more incompetence does she have to show for the 48 letters to go in....?!

Not going to happen, if a general election is called Labour will wipe the floor with them and I say that as a lifelong tory voter.

I saw an online poll for 'If there was an election tomorrow, who would you vote for' at the weekend, and the Tories were still 10 points ahead of Labour.
Labour are in as big a mess with their leadership.

Recent Sky poll had May @ 44% and Corbyn @22% as to who would do a better job at running the country. Doesn’t say a lot for Corbyn does it considering how poorly May is performing atm

[skwdenyer]

Smollet said:

Recent Sky poll had May @ 44% and Corbyn @22% as to who would do a better job at running the country. Doesn’t say a lot for Corbyn does it considering how poorly May is performing atm

I think this may be a deliberate policy on the part of Corbyn - keep out of the way, let May be the face of everything. Then propose a bunch of sane policies for the GE. I think 22% is more an indication of how invisible he is right now.

[The Dangerous Elk]

Corbyn is trying, he just has nothing that is coherent to say, the public mostly just ignore the old fool now.

[gizlaroc]

Coolbanana said:

gizlaroc said:

Really?
What are they then?

All we have had is scaremongering, from both sides, for the last 2 years.

No one is truly any the wiser than last time.

You would have to be a pretty dense individual not to see the glaring differences!


1. You have a WA that wasn't negotiated in 2016 which sets out Brexit with a Deal.

2. You have 'worst case' scenarios and 'optimistic scenarios' for WTO to choose from or make a case for the, most likely, middle ground.

The Electorate is hugely more informed now and doesn't require any additional campaigning from any side. The WA is a fact, it is what it is, you can read it, decide for yourself if you fancy it or not.

WTO can be seen for what it is and you can pretty much work out what the issues are that would be faced before FTA's can be agreed; it isn't difficult.

Remain is now known to be the same as before the Referendum; yes, the 'direction' of the EU may throw up some change but then the MEP's change every 5 years and if an Electorate wants 'Farage-type' MEP's in its ranks to force change in the EU, it can. Leavers love to talk about how the EU is going to collapse because the populations of many Member States are increasingly anti-EU...this can be tested since surely those Member States can vote in MEP's who will take control of the EU Parliament?

It is true that the UK's Representative system means you have to rely upon others to elect your MEP's but not so for other Member States who elect directly.

Unless you have been absorbing soundbites and idiot rhetoric for the last 2 years, there is a new wealth of information you can research and form an opinion about. It may not change your original vote, but for some, it might.

It is silly to deny that the Electorate knows more about Brexit now than it did 2 years ago - a child can see the differences.

Rather focus upon the real debate, is there sufficient evidence to warrant a 2nd Referendum, i.e. has the Electorate demonstrated a sizable number - certainly greater than 4%, have changed their minds? I would argue that the Polls alone provide evidence of this.

Equally, now that we know the extent of a Deal, is it worth having or would we prefer WTO or Remain? Again, Leavers did not demonstrate if they all would be happy to ignore the Deal and go WTO so this begs the question: would they prefer Remain or the Deal offered? Would the numbers preferring Remain over the Deal offered add up to greater than 4% and overthrow the original majority?

We have all been listening to soundbites and rhetoric for the last 2 years though, that is my point.



For every report that says WTO would be terrible there is another one that says it would be fine.

The UK is in an export boom at the moment, since Brexit we now export more to non EU countries than we do the EU at £342b vs £274b and that gap is widening. We have increased our exports overall by £111b to £610b and reduced our trade deficit from £24b to £15b and it is getting better all the time. Yet we never hear about this. It is all doom and gloom.


Someone only yesterday on BBC was saying his company had spent over a year crunching the numbers on how much it would effect companies and the reality was it was more like a 1% 'overall' hit than 10% as many have been saying due to tarrifs.
He said that he had done far more in depth reports than some of the companies had done themselves. Many are going into panic mode when they really don't need to, he was saying that currency fluctuations have a far, far greater effect than the import tariffs.


The fact of the matter is, the negotiations have been st. and It is now too late to leave on WTO imho and that is what he was saying.
It doesn't matter whether it is good or bad, we have not prepared ourselves. We don't have enough time to prepare ourselves now.

We have spent too long being told worse case scenario and we should have looked at it differently, we should have looked at it without the fear.

We have had remainers saying it will see the country collapse, we have had Brexiters saying everything will be better, that sort of talk just gets everyone switching off from and thinking "They're stupid" from both sides.



If it were me I would like to see the following.
Pull article 50, stay in the EU and start again.

Proper financial reports that both sides agree could be the case, and that is important, so we have a true understanding of what WTO means for the UK and then we can have a second referendum, when we have some proper facts.

Second referendum can then be....
Remain
vs
Leave on WTO

[The Dangerous Elk]

skwdenyer said:

The Dangerous Elk said:

I am sorry, not you or anybody else (MP's, Eu, HoLords etc) will not throw away my vote nor that of the majority's of UK's voters.

I'm in no position to throw away your vote, as you put it.

For my own clarity, are you ok with a "hard Brexit" on 29th March?

Hard Brexit is a scare word used by remainers, please define what "hard" is.

I am happy with a transition period.

Edited by The Dangerous Elk on Tuesday 11th December 17:05

[EddieSteadyGo]

The Dangerous Elk said:

skwdenyer said:

The Dangerous Elk said:

I am sorry, not you or anybody else (MP's, Eu, HoLords etc) will not throw away my vote nor that of the majority's of UK's voters.

I'm in no position to throw away your vote, as you put it.

For my own clarity, are you ok with a "hard Brexit" on 29th March?

Hard Brexit is a scare word used by remainers, please define what "hard" is.

Let's not go around in this circle again...

[Robertj21a]

skwdenyer said:

The reason I don't think a GE is such a great idea is that whoever proposes a delay (rather than certainty, either way) should (in an ideal world) get thrashed. We simply can't have more years of uncertainty like the last 2. We'll have no economy left to speak of by then...

If May immediately calls a 2nd ref, she gets to pre-empt a confidence motion (internal or Parliamentary) by saying that the electorate must be consulted as just promised. Anyone trying to pull the rug out from under that risks being tarred with the brush of being scared of the electorate - something they tend not to take too kindly too (the electorate that is).

Whether a 2nd ref or a GE, it will be acrimonious and divisive, as a GE will be a proxy referendum of sorts.

The only peaceful outcome I can envisage right now is no Brexit - yes, there will be those who feel betrayed, but I suspect a surprising number who voted Leave will in fact be a bit relieved. It only needs to be positioned as an attempt to stem the risks and looses of the last 2+ years. If the PM can line up some major announcements of new investment from multinationals and perhaps a "sop" budget then so much the better.

At the same time, a package of electoral reforms wouldn't go amiss. And getting our EU cousins to agree to a process of reforms of EU operations and governance would be the icing on the cake.

Is this wishful thinking? Perhaps a little but, but I'm genuinely struggling to see any benefit - or electoral maths - in any other course.

All that tells me is that you are yet another person who thinks he knows it all but, in practice, is totally out of touch with the bulk of the UK population.

[skwdenyer]

The Dangerous Elk said:

skwdenyer said:

The Dangerous Elk said:

I am sorry, not you or anybody else (MP's, Eu, HoLords etc) will not throw away my vote nor that of the majority's of UK's voters.

I'm in no position to throw away your vote, as you put it.

For my own clarity, are you ok with a "hard Brexit" on 29th March?

Hard Brexit is a scare word used by remainers, please define what "hard" is.

I am happy with a transition period.

Edited by The Dangerous Elk on Tuesday 11th December 17:05

OK, for me "hard" = leave the EU on 29th March 2019. No transition, no deal, etc.

Because right now that's the only thing actually definite. Running businesses, it is the only thing I can take as a certainty, the only thing I can plan for. Everything else is conjecture, etc.

And as that stands, that is likely IMHO to be catastrophic. Almost none of the UK is ready for it. Software hasn't even been written to deal with it, let alone tested or put into a deployment plan. HMRC and the like are simply unprepared for it.

Stuff will grind to a halt.

Given that - to me - that is a catastrophic outcome at this little notice (never mind the argument about whether it is a good thing in the general sense) then something must be done. What are those options?

[mondeoman]

Robertj21a said:

skwdenyer said:

The reason I don't think a GE is such a great idea is that whoever proposes a delay (rather than certainty, either way) should (in an ideal world) get thrashed. We simply can't have more years of uncertainty like the last 2. We'll have no economy left to speak of by then...

If May immediately calls a 2nd ref, she gets to pre-empt a confidence motion (internal or Parliamentary) by saying that the electorate must be consulted as just promised. Anyone trying to pull the rug out from under that risks being tarred with the brush of being scared of the electorate - something they tend not to take too kindly too (the electorate that is).

Whether a 2nd ref or a GE, it will be acrimonious and divisive, as a GE will be a proxy referendum of sorts.

The only peaceful outcome I can envisage right now is no Brexit - yes, there will be those who feel betrayed, but I suspect a surprising number who voted Leave will in fact be a bit relieved. It only needs to be positioned as an attempt to stem the risks and looses of the last 2+ years. If the PM can line up some major announcements of new investment from multinationals and perhaps a "sop" budget then so much the better.

At the same time, a package of electoral reforms wouldn't go amiss. And getting our EU cousins to agree to a process of reforms of EU operations and governance would be the icing on the cake.

Is this wishful thinking? Perhaps a little but, but I'm genuinely struggling to see any benefit - or electoral maths - in any other course.

All that tells me is that you are yet another person who thinks he knows it all but, in practice, is totally out of touch with the bulk of the UK population.

Tell me, who is this "bulk of the UK population" that you speak of and what to they think, right now?? We had a vote 2 years ago, since then we've learnt new some stuff, perhaps another vote is required based on newer information?

[Robertj21a]

mondeoman said:

Robertj21a said:

skwdenyer said:

The reason I don't think a GE is such a great idea is that whoever proposes a delay (rather than certainty, either way) should (in an ideal world) get thrashed. We simply can't have more years of uncertainty like the last 2. We'll have no economy left to speak of by then...

If May immediately calls a 2nd ref, she gets to pre-empt a confidence motion (internal or Parliamentary) by saying that the electorate must be consulted as just promised. Anyone trying to pull the rug out from under that risks being tarred with the brush of being scared of the electorate - something they tend not to take too kindly too (the electorate that is).

Whether a 2nd ref or a GE, it will be acrimonious and divisive, as a GE will be a proxy referendum of sorts.

The only peaceful outcome I can envisage right now is no Brexit - yes, there will be those who feel betrayed, but I suspect a surprising number who voted Leave will in fact be a bit relieved. It only needs to be positioned as an attempt to stem the risks and looses of the last 2+ years. If the PM can line up some major announcements of new investment from multinationals and perhaps a "sop" budget then so much the better.

At the same time, a package of electoral reforms wouldn't go amiss. And getting our EU cousins to agree to a process of reforms of EU operations and governance would be the icing on the cake.

Is this wishful thinking? Perhaps a little but, but I'm genuinely struggling to see any benefit - or electoral maths - in any other course.

All that tells me is that you are yet another person who thinks he knows it all but, in practice, is totally out of touch with the bulk of the UK population.

Tell me, who is this "bulk of the UK population" that you speak of and what to they think, right now?? We had a vote 2 years ago, since then we've learnt new some stuff, perhaps another vote is required based on newer information?

I would suggest that the last thing we need right now is yet another vote. We had one in 2016 and my personal view is that the 52/48 split has probably increased to a wider margin. Everywhere I go (outside London/SE) there's still a great desire to get out of the EU, just a lot of frustration at the time it is taking to fully achieve it.

[The Dangerous Elk]

I learn new stuff every day....and ?

[Helicopter123]

48 letters are in.

Operation self destruct still on track.

[The Dangerous Elk]

Helicopter123 said:

48 letters are in.

Operation self destruct still on track.

You cannot say they are any more or less divided than any other group / party / company or family in the Uk at the moment.

[anonymous-user]

The Dangerous Elk said:

Helicopter123 said:

48 letters are in.

Operation self destruct still on track.

You cannot say they are any more or less divided than any other group / party / company or family in the Uk at the moment.

Of course he can.

The conservatives yet again breaking themselves apart by infighting over Europe.

Most people aren’t infighting and divided at work or home or whatever because unlike you, were not all Brexit obsessed former banned poster nut jobs.

[p1stonhead]

El stovey said:

The Dangerous Elk said:

Helicopter123 said:

48 letters are in.

Operation self destruct still on track.

You cannot say they are any more or less divided than any other group / party / company or family in the Uk at the moment.

Of course he can.

The conservatives yet again breaking themselves apart by infighting over Europe.

Most people aren’t infighting and divided at work or home or whatever because unlike you, were not all Brexit obsessed former banned poster nut jobs.

Good news for no dealers though. If a brexiter gets the gig, all they have to do is not allow anything to go through for 3 months until the clock runs out and bobs your uncle.

[The Dangerous Elk]

El stovey said:

Of course he can.

The conservatives yet again breaking themselves apart by infighting over Europe.

Most people aren’t infighting and divided at work or home or whatever because unlike you, were not all Brexit obsessed former banned poster nut jobs.

tinfoiltit